The word “value” gets thrown around plenty during fantasy
drafts, and for good reason. Acquiring key contributors in the right
round without reaching for need can make or break fantasy owners.
That’s why mock drafts are important – to help owners
get an idea of which rounds a player might go in. But during these
busy summer months, not everyone has the time for that, so we’re
going to give you a position-by-position breakdown of overvalued
and undervalued players based on their Average Draft Position (ADP).
Undervalued
Ray Rice has a chance to thrive under OC
Gary Kubiak.
Ray
Rice, Ravens
ADP: 5.07
The Case for Rice Being Undervalued:
He has a lengthy history of production, and new offensive coordinator
Gary Kubiak has turned numerous running backs into stars.
The Case against Rice Being Undervalued:
He’ll be suspended for the season’s first two games and was far
from the vintage Ray Rice in 2013.
Verdict: Rice played 15 games last
season but had the worst statistical year of his career outside
of his rookie campaign. His suspension means Rice will play less
than 15 games for the first time since his aforementioned rookie
year. Put all of that together, and Rice has been understandably
passed over by fantasy owners – he’s the 26th back being taken,
on average. Yet there is one word that should breed heavy optimism
among fantasy owners in regards to Rice: Kubiak. He’s been a head
coach or offensive coordinator in Denver and Houston for the last
19 seasons, and in that time, his offenses have produced 1,000-plus
yard rushers in all but five of those seasons. While he had Terrell
Davis, Kubiak also got huge production from the likes of Olandis
Gary, Mike Anderson, Reuben Droughns and Steve Slaton. It’s a good
bet Rice also will thrive under Kubiak.
Andre
Williams, Giants
ADP: 10.09
The Case for Williams Being Undervalued:
He has the most potential upside of any Giants running back and
should get plenty of carries as the season wears on.
The Case against Williams Being Undervalued:
His lack of production in the passing game – including pass-blocking
--could impede his playing time.
Verdict: Williams led the NCAA with over 2,000 rushing yards last
season at Boston College, and NFL evaluators were so impressed that
they drafted him in the fourth round. That doesn’t say as much about
Williams the runner as it does about Williams when it comes to the
passing game. He simply isn’t an all-around back at this point,
and that affects his value significantly. Still, he should be able
to slip past Peyton Hillis and grab the back-up role to Rashad Jennings,
who signed with the Giants as a free agent in the offseason. Jennings
has never been a lead back, and last season was a career year for
him, as he gained 733 rushing yards and nearly 300 receiving yards.
It would make sense if Williams eventually split the load with Jennings.
Ahmad
Bradshaw, Colts
ADP: 12.06
The Case for Bradshaw Being Undervalued:
The only player standing in his way of significant playing time
is the underwhelming Trent Richardson.
The Case against Bradshaw Being Undervalued:
He has a long history of injury problems that have kept him off
the field far too often in his career.
Verdict: Over the course of his career,
Bradshaw has not only averaged 4.6 yards per carry, but has also
shown to be an adept pass-catcher, with nearly 140 receptions. He
can do a little bit of everything – except stay healthy. Even so,
there simply should not be 49 other backs, on average, being taken
ahead of Bradshaw. With Vick Ballard out, Bradshaw is the primary
backup to Richardson. This is the same Richardson who had 157 carries
last season as a Colt and failed to average 3.0 YPC and looks nothing
like the player most thought he would be coming out of Alabama.
The Colts have every reason to give Richardson a chance, considering
the price they paid for him, but if he doesn’t take advantage of
it, Bradshaw very well could.
Overvalued
Arian
Foster, Texans
ADP: 2.10
The Case for Foster Being Overvalued:
He is coming off a back injury, was given an enormous workload in
recent seasons and Gary Kubiak is no longer his coach.
The Case against Foster Being Overvalued:
He was a beast in the three seasons before 2013, and there’s no
denying how talented he is with the ball in his hands.
Verdict: Over the past four seasons, covering 53 games, Foster has
1,258 touches, an average of nearly 24 per game. That’s a
lot, and the Tennessee product finally succumbed to a herniated
disc which caused him to miss the last half of the 2013 season.
Foster will be 28 when the season starts, and though he’s
always been nothing but productive, he still wasn’t practicing
with the team as of this writing and lost Kubiak, whose accomplishments
were mentioned earlier in this article. It’s not that Foster
is finished; the risk is simply too high to make him your RB1.
Shane
Vereen, Patriots
ADP: 5.02
The Case for Vereen Being Overvalued:
The Patriots don’t exactly stick with one running back and go with
him, and Vereen did next to nothing running the ball last season.
The Case against Vereen Being Overvalued:
He is an adept pass-catcher out of the backfield and a capable runner
when given the opportunity.
Verdict: An injury in Week One scuttled Vereen’s chances to establish
himself as New England’s top back, and by the time he returned half
a season later, there was a heavy running back rotation in play.
Vereen carved out a niche for himself as a pass catcher, with 47
receptions for 427 yards. This has many people thinking he’ll translate
those half-season numbers into 100 catches in a full 2014. That
seems a bit optimistic for one reason – James White. The rookie
fourth-rounder has been impressive in camp, and he brings a pass-catching
prowess that the team lacked with LeGarrette Blount last season.
White’s progression could mean fewer looks for Vereen.
Lamar
Miller, Dolphins
ADP: 6.05
The Case for Miller Being Overvalued:
Speed isn’t everything, and while he has plenty of it, he hasn’t
shown much else, so the team brought in Knowshon Moreno to compete
with him.
The Case against Miller Being Overvalued:
Miami’s offensive line should be much better this season, and Moreno
hasn’t exactly flourished outside of a Peyton Manning offense.
Verdict: There are numerous qualities a running back must have to
succeed, and while speed is the one most people like to harp on,
things like vision and tackle-breaking have to be somewhere in there,
as well. Miller simply didn’t show enough of this to make
the Miami brass believe in him during his first two seasons with
the franchise, so they acquired Moreno. There’s not much of
a question concerning Miller’s physical tools, but the fact
that he has not put it together yet is concerning, and there are
other backs worthy of being taken ahead of him.
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