Regardless of the sport, you hear it all the time: “He’s
going to have a breakout year – he’s playing for a new
contract!” Year after year, without fail, some player is put
on preseason must-watch lists because it’s time for him to
get paid. But do these contract-year players really outperform their
averages?
I went back over the last five years of free agency and took a position-by-position
look at some notable names. A few things to keep in mind: when calculating
the averages, I excluded rookie seasons in which the player was
not a factor, as well as seasons in which a player was injured for
more than half the season. For example, Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide
receiver Vincent Jackson played just eight games with three receptions
in his rookie year (2005) and had only 14 catches in five games
in 2010, so each of those seasons was excluded in his averages.
Also, you won’t find quarterbacks on this list because quality
players at that position don’t exactly flood the free agent
market.
| Running Backs |
| Player |
FA Season |
Rush Yds |
Rec Yds |
TDs |
|
Prev Years |
Rush Yds Avg. |
Rec Yds Avg. |
TD Avg. |
| Darren Sproles |
2010 |
267 |
520 |
2 |
|
2007-2009 |
279.0 |
290.0 |
5.0 |
| Ray Rice |
2011 |
1364 |
704 |
15 |
|
2008-2010 |
1004.3 |
510.3 |
4.7 |
| Matt Forte |
2011 |
997 |
490 |
4 |
|
2008-2010 |
1078.7 |
498.3 |
8.3 |
| Reggie Bush |
2012 |
986 |
292 |
8 |
|
2006-2011 |
529.0 |
406.0 |
6.0 |
|
| Tight Ends |
| Player |
FA Season |
Rush Yds |
Rec Yds |
TDs |
|
Prev Years |
Rush Yds Avg. |
Rec Yds Avg. |
TD Avg. |
| Ben Watson |
2009 |
29 |
404 |
5 |
|
2005-2008 |
34.0 |
420.5 |
3.8 |
| Zach Miller |
2010 |
60 |
685 |
5 |
|
2007-2009 |
55.3 |
675.6 |
2.3 |
| Jared Cook |
2012 |
44 |
523 |
4 |
|
2010-2011 |
39.0 |
560.0 |
2.0 |
|
It seems somewhat clear with running backs and tight ends that impending
free agency doesn’t do much to change them. Rice and Forte
were franchised before signing their current deals, and the pair
didn’t light up the scoreboard any more than they already
had. They were consistently solid fantasy performers before their
contract years, unlike Bush. However, some of that was due to the
Dolphins using Bush differently in 2012 than the Saints did during
his previous seasons. As for the tight ends, there was a small bump
in touchdowns for all three of the examples, but otherwise the trio
had small variables in their numbers.
| Wide Receivers |
| Player |
FA Season |
Rush Yds |
Rec Yds |
TDs |
|
Prev Years |
Rush Yds Avg. |
Rec Yds Avg. |
TD Avg. |
| Vincent Jackson |
2011 |
60 |
1106 |
9 |
|
2006-2009 |
48.8 |
835.3 |
6.3 |
| Dwayne Bowe |
2012 |
59 |
801 |
3 |
|
2007-2011 |
71.2 |
985.4 |
7.2 |
| Mike Wallace |
2012 |
64 |
836 |
8 |
|
2009-2011 |
57.0 |
1068.7 |
8.0 |
| Golden Tate |
2013 |
64 |
898 |
5 |
|
2010-2012 |
33.7 |
432.3 |
3.3 |
|
The wide receiver position is where things get a bit more interesting.
Jackson and Tate outperformed their previous career averages, and
although Wallace didn’t put up his usual receiving yards,
he still caught more passes and found the end zone plenty of times.
Bowe was the only player that faded.
But why did Bowe slip? It certainly wasn’t due to the fact
that it was his contract year; it was due to the fact that his quarterbacks
were named Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn, who threw for a total of
eight touchdowns and 20 interceptions that season. The same can
be said for Bush’s statistical improvement . He didn’t
suddenly become a 1,000 yard rusher in Miami – he wasn’t
utilized the same way in New Orleans.
It will be tempting for fantasy owners to sneak a peek at the list
of impending free agents – and the list is formidable, containing
the likes of Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas and Randall Cobb –
and think that they might be getting something special because those
players will play for a new contract. Evidence doesn’t really
bear that out. There are many, many factors that go into a player’s
success, with the most important being the players surrounding him
and how they are utilized. But not because it’s a contract
year.
|
