Value is a word thrown around a lot during fantasy drafts, and for
good reason. The most important aspect of drafts is finding key
contributors in the right rounds, and not reaching for need. That’s
why mock drafts are important – to help owners get an idea
of which rounds a player might go in. But not everyone has time
for that, so we’re going to give you a position-by-position
breakdown of overvalued and undervalued players based on their Average
Draft Position (ADP).
Undervalued
Jared
Cook, Rams
ADP: 9.05
The Case For Cook Being Undervalued:
New team that should feature a more wide-open offense, match-up
nightmare as one of the most athletic tight ends in the game.
The Case Against Cook Being Undervalued:
His production has never reached the level of his ability, as he’s
never reached 50 catches or five touchdowns in a single season.
Verdict: Cook signed a lucrative free
agent deal with the St. Louis Rams in the off-season as the team
looked to add speed to a receiving corps that had anything but the
last few seasons. He’s 6-foot-5, 250 lbs. and has run sub-4.5 times,
so he’ll be a challenge to cover. Yet Cook’s career-highs are 49
catches, 759 yards and four touchdowns, which begs the question
– why? We think most of it has to do with opportunity, or lack thereof.
Last season with the Titans, Cook was targeted just 72 times, which
was fewer than the likes of Scott
Chandler and Marcedes
Lewis. Tennessee didn’t seem to utilize Cook enough, which is
odd considering they weren’t ripe with playmakers. That should change
this season in the shadows of the Arch. The Rams have added weapons
all over the field, don’t have a true number one running back, and
are primed to start throwing the ball more than they have in the
recent past. It would be a surprise if Cook doesn’t put up career
highs in all statistical categories this year.
Daniels isn't getting the ADP respect he
deserves.
Owen
Daniels, Texans
ADP: 12.02
The Case For Daniels Being Undervalued:
He is healthy and coming off one of the most productive seasons
of his career on a team with precious few receiving options.
The Case Against Daniels Being Undervalued:
The Texans aren’t exactly a pass-happy offense, and that’s especially
true as the team gets closer to the goal line.
Verdict: Daniels has battled injury issues in the past but was healthy
enough last season to catch 62 passes for 716 yards and six touchdowns.
In the four seasons that Daniels has played at least 15 games, he’s
caught at least 60 passes and accumulated 700 yards in three of
them, so the production is there when he gets on the field. Unfortunately,
as football fans are well aware, the Texans are a run-first team,
so the opportunities that Daniels gets can be limited. He did score
a career-high six touchdowns last year, but only one of those came
after Week 10, leaving him unproductive at the most important time
of the season for fantasy owners. Maybe that’s why he is,
on average, the 13th tight end off the board in fantasy drafts.
We have no doubt Daniels will end the season higher than 13th in
scoring at his position, and though the touchdowns may not come
in droves, he’ll at least be a consistent performer in terms
of yardage.
Brandon
Pettigrew, Lions
ADP: 13.10
The Case For Pettigrew Being Undervalued:
He plays in the league’s most pass-happy offense and has put up
solid totals in the past.
The Case Against Pettigrew Being Undervalued:
Speed is not exactly a virtue, with a YPC average of less than 10
for his career, and has underperformed in the red zone.
Verdict: Big things were expected of Pettigrew last year after totaling
over 150 receptions for nearly 1,500 yards the previous two seasons.
Yet he could only manage 59 catches for 567 yards and three scores
in 2012, putting doubts in the mind of fantasy owners everywhere.
Pettigrew may plod along, but he still had five games with at least
five catches and 60 yards last year, so he’s not a complete
statue. One could argue that the presence of Calvin Johnson takes
away from Pettigrew’s value, but the big tight end did get
100 targets last season (the third consecutive year in which he’s
had 100 or more), which was eighth at his position, so opportunity
isn’t lacking. We find it hard to ignore what he did in his
previous two seasons and tend to believe that last year was a down
season. Pettigrew may not reach the level of elite tight end, but
he’s certainly better than some of the 17 tight ends drafted
(on average) ahead of him.
Overvalued
Vernon
Davis, 49ers
ADP: 6.01
The Case For Davis Being Overvalued:
He was largely a no-show in the regular season after Colin
Kaepernick took over and he had just one touchdown after Week
3.
The Case Against Davis Being Overvalued:
His production in the playoffs and the fact that he’s one of the
best athletes at any position in his sport.
Verdict: Last season was a calamity for fantasy owners who used
a high draft pick on Davis. He was 15th among tight ends in scoring
after posting totals of 41 catches for 548 yards and five touchdowns.
Even worse, he totally disappeared after Kaepernick became the team’s
starter, averaging one catch for 10.2 yards and no touchdowns in
his final six contests. Then the playoffs came and something changed,
because Davis had 12 catches for 254 yards with one score in the
49ers’ playoff run. Still, Davis is in the midst of an unfortunate
trend, as his yard and touchdown totals have declined for three
straight seasons. We still think Davis can be a solid contributor
to fantasy squads, but on average he’s the fourth tight end
off the board, and the sixth round is entirely too high to select
a player whose performance has steadily declined and who was invisible
for half of last year.
Antonio
Gates, Chargers
ADP: 9.07
The Case For Gates Being Overvalued:
Age, injury and a shaky quarterback have cut his production from
being close to what it once was.
The Case Against Gates Being Overvalued:
Touchdowns are still the most important statistic in fantasy football,
and Gates can still find his way to the end zone.
Verdict: The plantar fasciitis issues that rendered Gates ineffective
are no longer much of a concern. Instead, at age 33 and with Philip
Rivers imploding, new concerns have arisen. The 49 catches and 538
yards Gates amassed last season were the lowest totals of his career,
behind only what he did as a rookie. He did score seven times, but
that was tied for his lowest total since his rookie season, and
his 11.0 YPC average was the lowest of his career. You can see where
we’re going here – things aren’t going to get
any better for Gates or his fantasy owners. There are some players
who can continue to play at a high level as they age (like Tony
Gonzalez), but those players generally stay clear of big-time injury
issues and Gates hasn’t done that. There are simply options
at tight end with more upside in the top 10 rounds of the draft
than Gates.
Brandon
Myers, Giants
ADP: 11.03
The Case For Myers Being Overvalued:
He has had exactly one season with more than 16 catches and 151
yards and that was with a different team.
The Case Against Myers Being Overvalued:
He produced too much for his season to be a fluke and his sticky
hands make for an appealing target.
Verdict: Myers was a nobody last year for fantasy owners, but immediately
caught everyone’s attention with a five-catch, 65-yard game
in Week 1. If there were still doubters, they likely dissipated
after another strong performance in Week 2, and he went on to catch
79 passes (on 105 targets) for 806 yards and four touchdowns. But
that was with the Raiders, who apparently weren’t all that
impressed and let him go as a free agent. Now with the Giants, Myers
has to prove himself all over again, and we’re skeptical.
His previous non-existent track record and the fact that New York
has elite receivers – which the Raiders decidedly lacked –
means we don’t like his chances to come anywhere close to
repeating what he did in 2012.
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