If you are still reading fantasy football analysis pieces then it’s
likely you made it to the championship game. Congratulations. Now,
finish the job you started back in August!
Truths
“Three
things cannot be long hidden: the sun, the moon and the truth.”
- Buddha
1) The Kendre Miller experiment was a complete bust (5.1 FPts).
Those hoping to get a big boost from Kendre Miller with Alvin Kamara
sidelined by injury were extremely disappointed. It turns out the
New Orleans offense in Week 16 might have been the least talented
offense in the league. No Derek Carr, no Kamara, no Chris Olave,
no Taysom Hill and not even a Marquez Valdes-Scantling made the
Saints offense look awful. They ended up being the first team this
season to get shutout. Next year, Kamara will turn 30, and this
entire offense may need a 100-percent rebuild from top to bottom.
2) In August, these three quarterbacks were listed in everyone’s
top-10 – Jordan Love, Dak Prescott and Anthony Richardson.
True. But in December, none are currently in the top-10. Love was
an interception machine early on forcing head coach Matt LaFleur
to design the offense around running back Josh
Jacobs. Dak was injured, but even before that, the Cowboys offense
was stagnant. And we found out Richardson can’t really throw the
football very well and he’s completely dependent on his legs to
score fantasy points.
3) Baker Mayfield has finally become what we thought he would
be for Cleveland in 2019.
Fact. His completion percentage is the best of his career (70.9).
He’s set a personal best for touchdown passes (34). He’s
run for 308 yards and three scores – both numbers also the
best of his career. And he’s done all this (25.4 FPts/G)
with All-Pro Chris Godwin missing since Week 7 and future Hall
of Fame wideout Mike Evans missing a month with a hamstring injury.
We will likely see stories next summer debating whether this was
just a “one-year wonder” situation, but I believe
it’s the maturation of a quarterback and will be happy to
select Mayfield on Draft Day 2025.
4) The change of head coach and offensive coordinator in Atlanta
was everything those who selected Bijan Robinson could have hoped
for.
True. Under OC Zac Robinson, Bijan’s workload increased.
He’s already carried the ball 45 more times than last season
and his catch efficiency out of the backfield has gone from 67.4%
to 90.2%. Overall, he has produced four points per game more in
2024 (18.8 FPts/G) than 2023 and sits at No.6 at his position.
Robinson’s future is certainly bright as the offense should
continue to improve with Michael Penix Jr. under center.
5) Welcome back to elite status Davante Adams.
True. Over his last four games, he’s become the focus of
the Jets offense and he’s averaged 26 FPts/G. That ranks
second only to Ja’Marr Chase. He’s averaged 12 targets
per game versus 8.25 for Garrett Wilson. It is what we expected
from ‘Tae, but didn’t get when he first arrived in
the Big Apple. In Adams’ first five games as a Jet he averaged
9.2 targets and 12 FPts/G. The trade didn’t help the Jets
reach their goal of the playoffs, but his late season push may
have helped your fantasy team make it and he certainly should
be an asset to you winning a championship this weekend.
Lies
“People like to say the conflict is between good and evil.
The real conflict is between truth and lies.” – Don
Miguel Ruiz
1) I was wrong in my pre-season analysis of Saquon Barkley and
how the Eagles would use him.
I thought he would be more efficient than he was in New York
because of Philadelphia’s superior OL and that turned out
to be true, but I also thought the Eagles brain trust would keep
him under wraps because of his propensity for injury. That didn’t
happen. Barkley leads the NFL in rushing attempts (314) or 20.9
per game with an additional 31 receptions and he has a chance
to break the NFL single season rushing title held by Eric Dickerson
(2,105 yards) if he plays the final two games of the season.
2) Nico Collins has been every bit as good as he was before
the injury.
False. The numbers don’t lie. In the five games before
the hamstring injury Collins averaged 21.3 FPts/G and in the five
games after returning he’s averaged 16.0 FPts/G. His catch
percentage was 71.1% through Week 5 and 65.1% since Week 11. Whether
it is poorer play from quarterback C.J. Stroud, lack of alternate
options leading to more double teams or Collins dropping some
passes, the end result is, his fantasy value for the remainder
of the season seems to have a limited ceiling. Sixteen points
a game isn’t bad, it’s just not top-five… it’s
more like top-15.
3) DK Metcalf can still help your team win the championship
this weekend.
I’m going to have to say no. Metcalf got off to a hot start
this season, averaging 18.2 FPts/G through the first four games,
but he’s not continued to produce at that level. Since his
injury, Metcalf has averaged just 10.7 FPts/G. He’s become
the No.2 option behind Jaxson Smith-Njigba. He also has a tough
matchup for championship week, facing the Bears, who rank No.6
against opposing wideouts.
4) Jayden Reed has disappointed you all season, so there is
no reason to believe he’ll suddenly show up during Championship
Week.
False. While Reed has taken a step back from last season instead
of becoming a star, he’ll have a great chance to be a winning
asset in Week 17. The Packers face a Minnesota Vikings defense
which has allowed the most points in the league to opposing wideouts
(41.3 per game). Additionally, we saw fellow wideout Christian Watson go down with a knee injury on Monday night in the first
half, return, but then aggravate the injury in the second half.
His status for Week 17 is unknown at this time. Reed has scored
double-digits in three of the last four games and should have
more upside in this one.
5) If Jalen Hurts is sidelined this weekend due to his concussion,
Kenny Pickett, with all the talent at wide receiver the Eagles
possess, could be a viable fantasy option.
Sorry, no. Of the 24 throws I saw him attempt on Sunday, the
only one he could reasonably make was a quick slant pass, usually
to A.J. Brown. He was 14-of-24 for just 143 yards and that was
with the Commanders crowding the line of scrimmage to thwart Saquon Barkley’s running. The Eagles can beat the Cowboys in Week
17, but it won’t be on the arm of Pickett. Look elsewhere
if you need quarterback help.
