In today’s piece I’m going to offer you my round-by-round “most favored” and “least favored” players based on FFToday’s Average Draft Position. My favorite player will be the guy who should easily produce better than his ADP. Additionally, it doesn’t mean I hate the least favored player, it’s just that I think his value at that ADP isn’t up to other options.

Based on a 10-team, 1 QB PPR league I’ll be choosing from players ranked 1-10, 11-20, 21-30 and so forth for the first 10 rounds.

1-10

This one is boring, it’s Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers running back is far and away better than any other option and gives you a three-to-five point advantage at the running back position as long as he stays healthy which he has the past two seasons playing 33 games to shake his injury-prone label.

It was going to be CeeDee Lamb because of the contract dispute, but now that he’s agreed to a last-minute deal, the least favorite option of the top-10 is A.J. Brown of the Eagles. He was an inconsistent performer in 2023 producing at least 125 yards and eight receptions from Weeks 3-8 and then managing just one 100-yard day the rest of the way. Add in a new mouth to feed (Saquon Barkley) and a new OC in Kellen Moore and there are too many question marks for a first-round pick.

11-20

Jonathan Taylor is back and healthy and should probably be ranked a bit higher. He no longer has to share the backfield with Zack Moss (986 yards from scrimmage and seven TDs). Moss’ replacements Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson should see a minimal workload and the only thing holding Taylor back from top-five status is the fear that Anthony Richardson’s legs will steal too many red zone touchdowns. They won’t.

Marvin Harrison Jr. will be great, but will he be great this season and, in particular, will he get off to a fast start or like most rookies take a bit of time to get established? He might be the “next” Randy Moss (69-1,313-17 his rookie season) or he might be like daddy (64-836-8). Rookies are usually inconsistent and you could get a veteran like Derrick Henry or Isiah Pacheco here instead.

21-30

Finally, Drake London has a quality quarterback to throw him the ball. In his first two seasons, he’s caught touchdown passes from Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder. He’s also caught balls from Taylor Heinicke. He averaged 113 targets and 70 receptions and three scores. Now he gets passes from Kirk Cousins and should be in for a significant increase in all three categories.

Travis Kelce is still a great tight end, but in his 12th season might be starting the downside of a Hall of Fame career. The rest of the position appears to be catching up to him. In 2023, four tight ends averaged between 13.8-14.8 FPts/G including Kelce. There is no reason to spend an early third-round selection on Kelce when you can get the same production in the next two rounds.

31-40

Cooper Kupp is the forgotten Rams wide receiver. But Matthew Stafford hasn’t forgotten him. It wasn’t that long ago that he was the best in the business. In fact, it was 2021 when he produced a 145-1,947-16 season. He still averaged 22.6 FPts/G in 2022 before an injury. While fantasy owners are flocking to Puka Nacua at No.14, this year’s value will be at No.39 with Kupp. He’s been injured the past two seasons, but appears healthy and ready to resume playing at an elite level or at least much higher than the end-of-the-fourth-round value.

Patrick Mahomes finished as the No.10 fantasy quarterback last season. Why are people choosing him here as the second quarterback off the board? Last season he didn’t run for any touchdowns because of the emergence of Pacheco at running back. It’s hard to be an elite fantasy quarterback without scoring a few six-point rushing touchdowns (see Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts).

41-50

Instead of taking Kelce at No.22, you can get nearly the same production from Mark Andrews in the middle of the fifth round. Lamar Jackson loves throwing to his tight end in the red zone. He’s recorded 20 touchdowns in his last 33 games. When healthy, which he wasn’t most of last season, he sees eight targets per game and that should produce elite tight end value here.

I’m a bit concerned that DK Metcalf is in a wide receiver by committee situation. The emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the Seattle wide receiver room along with steady Tyler Lockett makes it hard to predict who will emerge from this group each weekend. In 2023, the targets were divided up nearly equally 122/119/93 and that was in JSN’s rookie season.

51-60

With limited talent at the wide receiver position, Buffalo’s Josh Allen is likely to target his tight end, Dalton Kincaid regularly. Kincaid’s rookie season produced decent numbers (9.5 FPts/G), but with Stefon Diggs (160 targets) and Gabe Davis (81) no longer in upper New York, there is plenty of room for Kincaid’s target share to increase.

Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson has played just three and a half professional games, but many already have him as an elite fantasy option. I’m less sure, at least for this season. He might curb his running style a bit in his first year back from injury and allow Taylor to score in the red zone. Richardson didn’t have Taylor available in the games he started last season. You wouldn’t rather have Dak Prescott in the eighth round who averaged 23.9 FPts/G last year and ranked sixth at the position?

61-70

People are sleeping on Terry McLaurin. The man has averaged 129 targets over the past four seasons and over 1,000 yards receiving. With poor quarterback play. The Commanders’ top draft pick (No.2 overall) went to improving that quarterback production, choosing Jayden Daniels from LSU. With Jahan Dotson gone to rival Philadelphia to be replaced by Dyami Brown shouldn’t “Scary Terry” see more of a workload?

Tank Dell was putting together a really nice season in 2023 (47-709-7), until his season-ending injury. He was the Texans’ big-play threat. But he returns to a completely different situation. He’s likely the third option in the passing game behind Nico Collins and Diggs. Add in Dalton Shultz at tight end and new running back Joe Mixon and there are a lot of mouths to feed. This may be a more balanced offense in 2024 and Dell might not get the same opportunity.

71-80

The Cowboys run game isn’t likely to be very good with aging Ezekiel Elliott leading the running back room, so Dak Prescott should be throwing early and often. Probably 600 times or more. In 2023 he produced 4,516 yards and 36 touchdowns. Jerry Jones finally got his star wide receiver signed (Lamb) and Brandin Cooks is still a decent No.2. Tight end Jake Ferguson began to emerge as a scoring threat late last season and should help.

I’ve seen nothing from the Steelers offense to like and a shared backfield makes choosing Najee Harris in the eighth round a gamble. Jaylen Warren is every bit as good as Harris, the OL is mediocre at best, and neither Russell Wilson nor Justin Fields reminds me of an elite passer. This offense was 28th in scoring last season, 25th in yards and 30th in touchdowns. It’s an offense which even struggled in the preseason and I don’t want to be involved here. I’d rather gamble on a guy like Javonte Williams (No.80) finally being healthy in a better offense in Denver.

81-90

Diontae Johnson has always been a volume-based receiver. He averaged 153 targets from 2020-23 in Pittsburgh. After a disappointing 2023 he ends up in Carolina and should again be the No.1 guy for second-year quarterback Bryce Young until/if rookie Xavier Legette proves he can get open at this level. Veteran Adam Thielen is running out of gas in his 11th season, but is still a threat near the goal line.

Jayden Reed had a very nice rookie season for the Packers (912 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns), but the receiver room in Green Bay is loaded with options. Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton have all shown varying degrees of ability. Whether Reed can separate himself and be the No.1 guy is questionable. Reed has a solid floor so he won’t kill you, but whether he is productive at this spot depends on who Jordan Love decides to feature. You could choose Xavier Worthy (high-risk, high-reward option) or a starting running back with guaranteed production (Zack Moss).

91-100

Rookie wideout Ladd McConkey at No.100 could end up being very productive if he and Justin Herbert quickly get on the same page. Sure, head coach Jim Harbaugh is a run-first guy, but this is still the NFL where passing the football wins games. At worst, McConkey will be the No.2 option behind Josh Palmer after the team let Mike Williams and Keenan Allen go elsewhere.

The Browns Nick Chubb will start the season on the PUP list meaning he will miss at least the first four games. That will allow Jerome Ford to establish himself again as he did last season when he produced 11 double-digit games. Even when Chubb returns, he won’t be a workhorse option until late in the season at best and he doesn’t get involved in the passing game. Let this be someone else’s headache.