Best Scheme Fit: Universal.
Classic Z (flanker) should see plenty of time in the slot in 11
personnel. More than capable of being a dominant X (split end)
as well.
Best Team Fit(s): Chargers, Giants, Cardinals,
Broncos, Bears
Non-bolded times - Good examples of attribute Bolded times - Average/poor examples of attribute
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For receivers, a player needs to be a realistic
threat for 70 catches and 1,000 receiving yards at some point
early in their career to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional
scarcity at the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
Although he did not run the most elaborate route tree in
college, he is a true threat at every level (short/intermediate/deep).
Very explosive athlete who instantly flips the switch from
pass-catcher to playmaker once the ball is in his hands; high-level
run-after-catch threat who ranked fourth in FBS with 30 missed
tackles forced (one MTF per every three catches in 2023).
Stellar stop-start ability and tempo changes allow him to
sell the double move well and he has the speed to make his man
look silly if he bites.
Spatial awareness is off the charts; has an instinctual feel
in the open field - both against zone coverage and after the
catch.
Seems to be very much in tune with his quarterback on scramble-drill
opportunities.
Very respectable 5.3 percent drop rate in each of his two
high-volume seasons.
Negatives
Plays much bigger than he is after the catch, but how long
can he do that in the NFL at 6-0 and 200 pounds?
Allows the ball to get into his frame a bit too often.
Will likely need some time to expand his route resume at
the pro level, as more than 40 percent of the routes he ran
in 2023 were either go routes or curls. Also lined up in the
slot more than half the time during his college career.
Not the most proactive receiver when it comes to contested-catch
situations; needs to show a "my ball" mentality more
often.
Did not see the defense through his quarterback's eyes on
several hot-route opportunities.
Has an arrest on his record (a misdemeanor illegal weapon
charge in February of 2023); the charge was later dropped.
Bottom Line
Whereas Marvin Harrison Jr. is more of a finished product, there
is a fair amount of meat left on the bone as far as what Nabers
could be at the next level. For better or worse, nearly half of
the routes Nabers ran in college - at least in 2023 anyway - were
built off the same concept (not unlike a young DeSean Jackson):
respect the curl/stop route and get beat by the speed or respect
the speed and get beat by the curl/stop and let run-after-catch
skills come into play. The polish to his release and crispness
to his overall route-running could use some work as well, although
we can probably assume he has been able to rely on his raw athleticism
to get by more often than not. The one area in which the high-end
comp to Lamb falls short is as a contested-catch receiver. Simply
put, he is not on that level yet (where Lamb was in that regard
in college). He shows flashes, however, so the possibility of
it happening down the road exists. One final note to keep in mind
regarding Nabers' production: 60 percent of his yardage and 10
of his 14 touchdowns came out of the slot in 2023. Likewise, almost
30 percent of his total yards and nine of his scores came on slot
fades.
There are at least two areas where Nabers is exceptional. Think
of the receivers with the quickest feet in the league in recent
years, such as Justin Jefferson and Antonio Brown. Nabers' foot
quickness is at or near that level. The 2023 Citrus Bowl MVP's
quick feet also contribute to his other superpower: his run-after-catch
ability. Not only does Nabers put defenses in a bind by trying
to corral him in the open field, but he also plays the position
as if he is 215 pounds when he has the ball in his hand. LSU regularly
featured him on jet sweeps/tap passes to take advantage of this
very quality. His contact balance is on par with some of the best
college running backs. His innate ability to make the right move
in the open field consistently and the awareness he possesses
for feeling the soft spot in zone coverage round out some of his
other very impressive qualities. He even brings a bit of a trick-play
element, as he was used on a reverse pass a couple of times in
2022. (Here is the
best example.)
LSU has done an impressive job recruiting and molding receivers
over the last 10-plus years, including but not limited to Justin
Jefferson, Ja'Marr
Chase, Odell
Beckham Jr. and Jarvis
Landry. Nabers has that kind of talent, although I think it
would be unwise to expect that level of success right away from
him. For example, Jefferson was a refined route-runner in college,
while Chase has always been more physical than what Nabers put
on tape. Nabers should be an immediate high-level contributor
out of the slot the moment he steps out on the field, but he may
need a bit of time to work on his release and ability to play
through press against some of the league's most physical corners
on the perimeter. As with most elite talents who show they want
to be great as much as Nabers does, it should only be a matter
of time before that happens. When it does, Nabers could easily
emerge as the most dynamic playmaker in this draft class from
what appears to be a loaded group of players at his position.
Doug Orth has written for FFToday since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
