High-end NFL Player Comp(s):
A more athletic and dynamic Tee Higgins
Low-end NFL Player Comp(s):
Christian Watson
Best Scheme Fit: While he
should probably be a field-stretching Z (flanker) to begin his
career, he has the size and ability to be a capable X (split end)
as he becomes more nuanced as a route-runner.
Best Team Fit(s): Bills, Chargers, Cardinals,
Colts, Chiefs, Steelers, Saints, Giants, Patriots
Non-bolded times - Good examples of attribute Bolded times - Average/poor examples of attribute
* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For receivers, a player needs to be a realistic
threat for 70 catches and 1,000 receiving yards at some point
early in their career to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional
scarcity at the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
Size/speed demon who eats up cushion quickly and can get
behind coverage seemingly at will; accentuates this trait by
stacking his defender time after time.
Tape is littered with big play after big play; tracks the
ball as well as any prospect and routinely wins at the catch
point.
Untapped potential in the short and intermediate passing
game; flashes the ability to sink his hips and change direction
and is unafraid to run over the middle of the field.
Underrated fluidity for a bigger receiver; showed significant
growth in his technique and footwork in 2023.
A 78.2 percent catch rate and 6.8 percent drop rate - especially
given the nature of how often he was used down the field - in
his only season as a full-time starter is borderline incredible.
Negatives
Will need some time to expand his route tree after almost
two-thirds of the routes he ran in 2023 were one of the following:
go, curl or slant.
Perhaps a bit too reliant on his incredible athleticism to
get open, although he was not asked to run routes that require
a lot of nuance as often as most receivers.
May always be challenged to sell routes the way he will need
to in the NFL, as longer-limbed players typically have a harder
time sinking their hips and cutting sharply on routes.
Disappointing run-after-catch production; was more of a static
target in the short and intermediate passing game but also did
not break many tackles when he was on the move.
One year of production; did not break through until after
an up-and-down Kayshon Boutte moved on to the NFL.
Bottom Line
On an offense that featured Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers,
it is difficult to stand out athletically … and yet, Thomas
did just that. He is so athletic, in fact, that he should have
no problem being an immediate contributor in the NFL. To what
degree that happens depends on whether or not some of the traits
he flashed were random events or a product of a college offensive
coordinator who was not overly interested in developing Thomas'
game since he is such a dynamic deep threat. While Rome Odunze
was more productive on targets of 20-plus yards in 2023 (23 catches
on 49 targets for 783 yards and six touchdowns), what Thomas did
with his opportunities was almost otherworldly (15 catches on
22 targets for 670 yards and 12 TDs). For the sake of comparison,
Marvin Harrison Jr. posted 15 receptions on 24 deep targets for
598 yards and five scores. Thomas should not have much of an issue
being one of the league's best deep receivers early in his career.
His ability to track the ball and create natural separation (with
his speed) is on another level.
Perhaps the most disappointing part of Thomas' profile is that
he does so little after the catch (at least on short and intermediate
routes). How much of this was a function of a lack of those opportunities
and how much of it was an inability to do it remains to be seen.
He also flashes the potential to get more work in the short and
intermediate areas - this
route shows how fluid he can be as a route-runner while this
one displays his ability to sink his hips and change direction
- but his ability to do that consistently is in question because
he was asked to do it so infrequently. The question with Thomas
then becomes if Thomas' usage at LSU was an indictment on his
ability to be a complete receiver or more a matter of the team
letting Nabers dominate in the short and intermediate areas and
almost kind of pigeonholing Thomas because he was such a downfield
threat.
Even more than the traditional first-round pick at wide receiver,
Thomas is far from a finished product. Most teams will not need
to question his ability to contribute right away as a field-stretcher,
but they will need to buy into his athleticism and hope the few
glimpses LSU gave evaluators of his ability in the short and intermediate
passing game are signs that has the potential to win at every
level as most true alphas do. While I fear that Thomas' contact
balance and play strength are such that he may never be great
after the catch, I am confident he can eventually be a more explosive
version of Higgins in the right situation (i.e. good position
coach, play-caller and quarterback) and given time to develop.
Doug Orth has written for FFToday since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
