I admittedly don't discuss quarterbacks very often in August,
but this rookie class is probably going to make us talk about
them.
- Trevor Lawrence should be considered the safe play of the group,
albeit one with a ton of upside. He should be considered a decent
bet for at least 3,800 yards passing and at least 300 yards rushing
(remember the 17th game changes things a bit here). That is a
statistical combination that has happened only 35 times in league
history (five times last year). The question for him is how often
Jacksonville visits the end zone and if the line can protect him
well enough so he can hold up all season. There are enough concerns
with the Jaguars to dial back the enthusiasm to a high-end QB2
level.
- Trey Lance has all the makings of a league-winner. The only
thing he truly lacks is the guarantee of a starting job right
away. Yes, he will look like a rookie who played just over a year
at the FCS level at times. However, he will also eventually be
at the controls of an offense that has one of the best receiver-tight
end trios in the league and incredible rushing upside. He will
also have a coach in Kyle Shanahan whose scheme can typically
create easy throws. If the last few years has taught us anything,
it is that "cheat code" quarterbacks are worth their
weight in gold. Putting a "cheat code" quarterback in
an offense run by Shanahan just seems like, well, cheating.
- Justin Fields has the same kind of upside Lance does from a
fantasy perspective and a trio of receivers and tight ends that
are on par with what the North Dakota State product has. He also
does not know when he will be named the starter, but where he
falls short of Lance in fantasy is that HC Matt Nagy is not in
Shanahan's class, nor is Chicago's offensive line on the same
level as San Francisco's. Fields has the athleticism to make things
happen and will overcome the Bears' shortcomings on occasion,
but asking him to do so without paying for it physically over
the course of the season may be too much.
- Like Lawrence, Zach
Wilson can feel reasonably good about his chances of starting
Week 1. The Jets upgraded their offensive line in a big way this
offseason and even gave the second overall pick some legitimate
weapons. The reason he falls where he does on the Big
Board is simple: while Wilson can run, New York did not draft
him to complement the running game in the same way the three aforementioned
rookies will. The Jets wanted a quarterback, first and foremost.
In today's fantasy game, a quarterback doing most of his damage
from the pocket typically needs to throw for at least 4,000 yards
and 30 TDs to have a chance at crashing the top 10 party. He may
be able to do the former, but the latter will be a tall task even
if Corey Davis
and Elijah Moore
stay healthy and ball out.