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Anatomy of a League Winner - Quarterbacks


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 6/23/20 |


Patrick Mahomes

One of the most difficult - and sometimes impossible - tasks for any fantasy owner during the offseason is figuring out what players have league-winning upside. Certainly, the Christian McCaffrey's and Saquon Barkley's of the world come immediately to mind, but we need some pretty good luck in a traditional snake draft to land either one of those players.

To answer this "league-winner" question better, I decided to break down what one looks like - physically and statistically - by taking a closer look at each player that reached a particular fantasy-point benchmark that could be considered great or elite over the last three seasons. By using the best of the best in each position group over a three-year period as the basis for what is great versus elite, we should be able to create realistic parameters for what it takes to be a true fantasy difference-maker.

The goal of this analysis is to give readers a general idea of what characteristics - be it physical or statistical - they need to keep in mind on draft day. There will invariably be repeat entries (as in certain players appearing two or three times on the list). It's also OK to view this series of articles as something of a correlational study, but it's more than that. My top priority is trying to establish what benchmarks fantasy owners need to shoot for at each position, especially considering the different styles of players that exist in the game.

At the bottom of the sortable table, there is another mini-table summarizing the group averages, minimums and maximums of each category, hits and hit rate. The "hits" are how many players at that position exceeded the average of the players in the first table, while the hit rate is the percentage of "hits" in that group (a "greater than x" situation). In rare circumstances such as quarterback age, I opted for a "less than X" approach. The text will be red in those atypical situations. My advice to maximize the value of the table below: sort each column and then read the analysis that accompanies that column header.

Because we are discussing an average of the best of the best over the last three seasons, the "hit rate" percentages will probably be lower than some would expect Thus, anything over about 60 percent is notable because it suggests the group is bottom-heavy. Likewise, anything below about 40 percent suggests the group is top-heavy. This "rule" will apply to all positions.

Quarterbacks

Fantasy point threshold - 280 fantasy points (four points/passing TD). A total of 27 quarterbacks reached this mark over the last three seasons.

 League Winning QBs: 2017-2019
Rk Player Year Age Tm Ht Wt G Cmp Att Cmp% PaYds PaTDs PaTD% INT INT% Car RuYds RuTDs FPts FPts/G
1 Patrick Mahomes 2018 23 KC 75 230 16 383 580 66.0 5097 50 8.60% 12 2.1% 60 272 2 417.1 26.1
2 Lamar Jackson 2019 22 BAL 74 212 15 265 401 66.1 3127 36 9.00% 6 1.5% 176 1206 7 415.7 27.7
3 Matt Ryan 2018 33 ATL 76 217 16 422 608 69.4 4924 35 5.80% 7 1.2% 33 125 3 355.0 22.2
4 Russell Wilson 2017 29 SEA 71 215 16 339 553 61.3 3983 34 6.10% 11 2.0% 95 586 3 347.9 21.8
5 Ben Roethlisberger 2018 36 PIT 77 240 16 452 675 67.0 5129 34 5.00% 16 2.4% 31 98 3 341.9 21.4
6 Dak Prescott 2019 26 DAL 74 238 16 388 596 65.1 4902 30 5.00% 11 1.8% 52 277 3 337.8 21.1
7 Deshaun Watson 2018 23 HOU 74 220 16 345 505 68.3 4165 26 5.10% 9 1.8% 99 551 5 331.7 20.7
8 Russell Wilson 2019 31 SEA 71 215 16 341 516 66.1 4110 31 6.00% 5 1.0% 75 342 3 328.6 20.5
9 Andrew Luck 2018 29 IND 76 240 16 430 639 67.3 4593 39 6.10% 15 2.3% 46 148 0 327.9 20.5
10 Deshaun Watson 2019 24 HOU 74 220 15 333 495 67.3 3852 26 5.30% 12 2.4% 82 413 7 321.0 21.4
11 Jared Goff 2018 24 LAR 76 222 16 364 561 64.9 4688 32 5.70% 12 2.1% 43 108 2 316.3 19.8
12 Aaron Rodgers 2018 35 GB 74 225 16 372 597 62.3 4442 25 4.20% 2 0.3% 43 269 2 312.6 19.5
13 Jameis Winston 2019 25 TB 76 231 16 380 626 60.7 5109 33 5.30% 30 4.8% 59 250 1 305.4 19.1
14 Drew Brees 2018 39 NO 72 209 15 364 489 74.4 3992 32 6.50% 5 1.0% 31 22 4 305.0 20.3
15 Cam Newton 2017 28 CAR 77 245 16 291 492 59.2 3302 22 4.50% 16 3.3% 139 754 6 299.5 18.7
16 Russell Wilson 2018 30 SEA 71 215 16 280 427 65.6 3448 35 8.20% 7 1.6% 67 376 0 299.4 18.7
17 Tom Brady 2017 40 NE 76 225 16 385 581 66.3 4577 32 5.50% 8 1.4% 25 28 0 295.9 18.5
18 Alex Smith 2017 33 KC 76 213 15 341 505 67.5 4042 26 5.10% 5 1.0% 60 355 1 295.2 19.7
19 Josh Allen 2019 23 BUF 77 237 16 271 461 58.8 3089 20 4.30% 9 2.0% 109 510 9 288.6 18.0
20 Patrick Mahomes 2019 24 KC 75 230 14 319 484 65.9 4031 26 5.40% 5 1.0% 43 218 2 287.0 20.5
21 Dak Prescott 2018 25 DAL 74 238 16 356 526 67.7 3885 22 4.20% 8 1.5% 75 305 6 285.9 17.9
22 Kyler Murray 2019 22 ARI 70 207 16 349 542 64.4 3722 20 3.70% 12 2.2% 93 544 4 285.3 17.8
23 Philip Rivers 2018 37 LAC 77 228 16 347 508 68.3 4308 32 6.30% 12 2.4% 18 7 0 285.0 17.8
24 Kirk Cousins 2018 30 MIN 75 202 16 425 606 70.1 4298 30 5.00% 10 1.7% 44 123 1 283.1 17.7
25 Cam Newton 2018 29 CAR 77 245 14 320 471 67.9 3395 24 5.10% 13 2.8% 101 488 4 282.6 20.2
26 Carson Wentz 2017 25 PHI 77 237 13 265 440 60.2 3296 33 7.50% 7 1.6% 64 299 0 281.7 21.7
27 Tom Brady 2018 41 NE 76 225 16 375 570 65.8 4355 29 5.10% 11 1.9% 23 35 2 281.3 17.6

 QBs As A Group: 2017-2019
  Age Ht Wt G Cmp Att Cmp% PaYds PaTDs PaTD% INT INT% Car RuYds RuTDs FPts FPts/G
Group Average 29.1 74.7 225.2 15.6 351.9 535.3 65.7 4143 30.1 5.7% 10.2 1.9% 66.1 322.6 3 315.3 20.3
Group Minimum 22 70 202 13 265 401 58.8 3089 20 3.7% 2 0.3% 18 7 0 281.3 17.6
Group Maximum 41 77 245 16 452 675 74.4 5129 50 9.0% 30 4.8% 176 1206 9 417.1 27.7
Hits (greater than avg) 16 16 12 20 13 13 17 13 14 11 14 14 11 11 9 11 13
Hit Rate 59% 59% 44% 74% 48% 48% 63% 48% 52% 41% 52% 52% 41% 41% 33% 41% 48%

Age - There are 16 instances (59 percent) on the table above of 29-or-younger quarterbacks enjoying their banner season(s). Eight of the 11 best single-season performances (73 percent) over the last three years by quarterback were achieved by this group. There are only six entries (22 percent) of quarterbacks 35 or older finishing inside the top 27.

Height (inches) - The stature of a quarterback has become less of a priority for evaluators in recent years, but the position has enough players remaining from the "old guard" that the data appears to still favor the taller ones. A whopping 81.5 percent of the entries above (22 of 27) belong to quarterbacks who stand at least 6-2. There are 16 entries (59 percent) above of quarterbacks standing 6-3. Only Murray, Wilson and Brees made the list as quarterbacks who stand 6-0 or smaller.

Weight - It's mildly interesting that five of the top eight fantasy-point totals over the last three seasons have been achieved by quarterbacks weighing 220 pounds or less, but the majority of those folks are gifted runners. It is common knowledge that quarterbacks who possess an uncommon blend of athleticism and accuracy possess more fantasy upside than signal-callers who don't. With that said, weight and height are going to rank on the low end of characteristics I'm considering on fantasy draft day.

Games - Most quarterbacks need to play in as many games as possible to reach 280 fantasy points. Twenty of the 27 quarterbacks above (74 percent) played in every game. Per Pro Football Reference, only 13 full-time quarterbacks went 16 last year. That seems to be right about average, as there are 43 instances of full-time quarterbacks accomplishing that feat since 2017.

Completions/attempts - As the summary section at the bottom of the table suggests, there's not a lot of reason to spend much time here. It stands to reason five of the top seven (71.4 percent) fantasy performances from quarterbacks over the last three years have been by players who led this group of 27 in completions. Five of the top nine (55.6 percent) fantasy performances from quarterbacks in that same time frame have been by players who led the group of 27 in attempts.

Completion percentage - Eight of the top 10 efforts by quarterbacks over the last three seasons (80 percent) have been signal-callers who completed at least 66 percent of their throws. It makes sense that quarterbacks who rank high in this category have a high chance of being elite. The odds are strong that a quarterback completing two-thirds of his throws will get more opportunities to throw, leading to more production.

Passing yards - Given the influx of dual-threat quarterbacks over the last few seasons, a top performer doesn't have to throw for 4,000 yards, as 11 of the players listed above (41 percent) did not reach that benchmark. However, fantasy owners need to be sure about the "running quarterback" that stake their fortunes to, as the odds still favor the quarterback who throws for at least 4,000 yards. Seven of the top 10 and 13 of the top 20 fantasy-point totals above meet that criteria.

Passing TDs - It should come as no surprise the top 11 fantasy performances in this position group over the last three seasons have been achieved by quarterbacks who threw for at least 26 touchdowns. The better number for fantasy owners to shoot for is at least 30 total TDs from quarterbacks, as Watson's back-to-back seasons of 26 passing TDs have been supplemented by 12 rushing scores.

Passing TD % - Unless fantasy owners are counting on the kind of volume Roethlisberger had in 2018 (675 pass attempts) or a huge yards-per-attempt average like Prescott had last year (8.2), it is for the best that quarterbacks find a way to keep their TD rate above five percent. Six percent should be the goal. Six of the top nine performances by quarterbacks over the last three seasons have been by signal-callers at 5.8 or above. For those folks wondering about Jackson, his 9.0 passing TD rate was tied for the second-best mark in league history among quarterbacks with at least 400 passing attempts. Peyton Manning is the only player in league history (min. 400 attempts) to post two seasons with a passing TD rate of eight or higher, so major regression is likely coming.

Interceptions - Winston's 30 picks in 2019 sticks out like a sore thumb and ruins the average for the group, but there appears to be a relatively equal distribution of high-end fantasy performances when it comes to interceptions. Twelve picks is an acceptable number for a potential league-winning quarterback. Of the 27 entries on this list, 22 (81.4 percent) fall within that group.

Interception % - Two percent is a bit on the high end for this stat, yet 44.4 percent of the entries (12 of 27) are in that range. Granted, that is less of a crime when Murray is running for 544 yards, Allen is scoring nine rushing touchdowns or the rest of the high interception rate group is accounting for roughly two TDs per game. A high interception rate is not necessarily detrimental to the odds of a quarterback reaching fantasy nirvana in a season, but the odds are always going to favor those who keep it under two percent.

Carries - Rivers made the list with 18 rushing attempts in 2018 and Jackson piled up 176, so all kinds of quarterbacks are welcome to make this kind of list. While six entries show signal-callers with 33 or fewer carries, 78 percent (21 of 27) had at least 43. The difference between roughly two rushing attempts and roughly 2.5 rushing attempts doesn't sound like much, but the evidence strongly favors quarterbacks who can average the latter and reach 40 carries.

Rushing yards - For what it's worth, the average of this group of 27 without Jackson is just under 289 yards. It stands to reason the "hit rate" is the same as it was for carries (41 percent). Unsurprisingly, the same six entries (22 percent) that failed to top 40 carries were the same ones who fell short of 100 yards rushing. It appears 125 yards is a good goal, as Roethlisberger's aforementioned high-volume 2018 campaign (which led to a fifth-place fantasy finish in this group of 27) is the only example of a quarterback landing inside the top 10 when he did not top 125 yards rushing.

Rushing TDs - With the possible exception of players like Newton and Allen, rushing touchdowns for quarterbacks aren't what we would consider bankable - and I'm not sure Newton or Allen should get the benefit of the doubt either. Rushing TDs - especially for quarterbacks - are just too volatile. With that said, it's interesting to note that 10 of the top 11 performances above (90.9 percent) involved a quarterback scoring at least twice on the ground.

Recommended baselines for quarterbacks to reach potential league-winner status:

Pocket passers (fewer than 60 carries): 380 completions, 580 pass attempts, 65 percent completion rate, 4,400 passing yards, 28 passing TDs, 5.5 percent TD rate, 10 or fewer interceptions, 1.5 percent interception rate (or lower), 40 carries, 125 rushing yards and two rushing TDs

Dual threats (more than 60 carries): 315 completions, 500 pass attempts, 63 percent completion rate, 3,600 passing yards, 25 passing TD, 5.5 percent TD rate, 10 or fewer interceptions, 1.8 percent interception rate (or lower), 85 carries, 400 rushing yards and four rushing TDs



Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.