Ever since I began my fantasy
writing career in 2000, my focus has been the same: provide the
information and insight I felt was necessary to help readers win
as many fantasy championships as possible. That will not change.
However, it would be negligent on my part to pretend as if society
doesn't have more important things to focus on at the moment.
As a child, I can remember studying American history and thinking
how cool it would have been to be alive to witness certain points
of it and how fortunate I was to avoid other parts of it. (I'm
sure I wasn't the only one.) For better or worse, this year will
be one of those significant points in our history that children
will study in the generations to come. Do we want them to remember
it as a year where Americans were strong enough to survive a pandemic
AND take a major step forward from a human rights perspective?
We have the power now to make that history lesson a positive one
for those kids. I often joke that I constantly have to remind
myself human beings are supposed to be the most evolved creatures
on the planet (usually when someone does something stupid for
likes or views on social media), but there comes a time where
I wish I didn't feel compelled to make that joke. (I shared some
thoughts on Twitter last week that I believe are relevant
to where we are and what is happening in our country right now.)
Making the transition from real life to fantasy football, I am
sometimes blown away by the amount of information available to
us now as opposed to when I started playing this game more than
20 years ago. Unfortunately, almost all of the analysis is focused
on the offensive side of the ball. It makes sense. Fantasy football
is an offensive game, after all. However, ask most analysts about
placing more than a minimal amount of emphasis on potential matchups
for the upcoming season and the answer is usually some form of
"defense is highly volatile or too unpredictable from one
year to the next" and not seriously worth considering when
ranking players. For those folks, do you know what else is highly
volatile from one year to the next? Injuries, touchdown production,
job security, etc. That hasn't stopped the industry from hiring
injury experts, trying to predict TD production or writing articles
when Tua Tagovailoa will overtake Ryan Fitzpatrick in Miami.
Ignoring potential defensive matchups is somewhat akin to taking
a rowboat or kayak out on the ocean, in my opinion. Sure, the
water may be peaceful and allow the rower to go from Point A to
Point B without incident eventually. But what if the water is
choppy? I realized as early as 2004 that I didn't like the idea
of my players then having to face the Ravens or the Steelers,
especially during the fantasy playoffs. Certainly, my approach
has evolved quite a bit from that initial premise, but I think
my track record of success speaks for itself and suggests there
is substantial value in forecasting what the ocean will be like
before the rower before he/she attempts his/her journey. The key
is giving potential matchups the proper amount of weight to a
player's evaluation.
That brings us to our focus for the next two weeks. With defenses
operating out of sub packages (nickel, dime, quarter, etc.) almost
70 percent of the time in today's game, it makes sense to take
a look at what each team will probably look like in base and sub-package
personnel. Furthermore, it helps to have an understanding of how
each veteran defensive player who will be in those packages in
2020 graded out and/or performed last year. With the help of sites
like Pro Football Focus, Sports Info Solutions and Pro Football
Reference, we can do that.
Defense is a team endeavor, so the process is never as easy as
spotting a player with a weakness and exploiting that shortcoming
over and over. An important part of coaching in any sport is the
ability to maximize players' strengths and mask their weaknesses,
so players will either get help or they'll get benched before
too long if they are struggling. Nevertheless, the goal of any
good offense is to isolate the weak link in the passing defense
as often as possible or take advantage of what may be a "soft"
side of a run defense (assuming that matches up with the run-blocking
ability of the offensive line). It's also important to understand
that no defender lines up across any offensive player on every
play, so we are playing odds and not dealing with virtual certainties
(i.e. shadow cornerbacks sometimes "shadow" only 50-60
percent of the time.
Let's get to some fundamental points about Preseason Matchup
Analysis before we start:
1) My color-coding system has never been about last year's results
or last year's "strength of schedule." My PMA color
coding has always been predictive, not reactive;
2) The color coding in this four-part series is based on last
year only because we have no information about this season. Last
year's results help set the stage for this year, but they do not
define the stage.
3) A "base" is typically deployed on probable running
downs, so the content below for "Base" will be primarily
how front-seven defenders stack up against the run. Likewise,
sub packages focus on slowing down passing games, so my thoughts
for that area will focus primarily on coverage players.
The purpose of this article is simple, even if the execution
of it is not: attempting to identify what defenders present fantasy
owners with an opportunity for success. There is a heavy amount
of subjectivity that goes into my color coding when I analyze
matchups in advance of the Big Board. It is my hope this process
will reduce a lot of that and give my readers a look under the
hood, so to speak.
Key:
SHAD - A CB that shadowed
receivers in roughly half of the team's games last year and/or
is likely to do so again this season. Green box - Player graded 80 or higher in that
particular discipline per PFF (100 point scale) White box - Player graded between 70 or 79.9
in that particular discipline Yellow box - Player graded between 60 or 69.9
in that particular discipline Red box - Player graded 59.9 or lower in that
particular discipline
Italic (player name) - Rookie
or Free Agent likely to return to the team Bold print (player name) - Over 30 years of age
or will turn 30 by the start of the season
Grades - Run defense (RD),
pass rush (PR) and coverage (COV) Catch % - Catch percentage allowed in player's
coverage QB rating - Passer rating allowed in player's
coverage Percentages (left, right, etc.) - How often a
defensive back lined up at left or right cornerback or in the
slot. For safeties, time at free safety or in the box is included
to provide insight as to how often he is asked to help against
the run as opposed to how often he plays center field.
Base: If a defense is going to have a personnel
weakness at any one position when it comes to stopping the run,
outside linebacker would probably be the choice. Klein is more of
a versatile try-hard guy than anything else who belongs inside,
but Edmunds is the long-term answer there. Lotulelei turned 30 last
winter and has graded out as a yellow-level run defender in each
of the past five seasons. There's a possibility Murphy gets released
to make Jefferson a full-time player, but Murphy has graded out
well in the run game often enough in his career to justify keeping
him around to keep Addison, Jefferson and Hughes fresh enough to
rush the passer.
Sub: Buffalo's most noteworthy vulnerabilities
through the air should be whenever an opponent isolates Klein against
a running back or tight end or attacks a corner whose last name
isn't White. Receivers in White's coverage last season managed a
catch rate of only 56 percent and did not score a touchdown. Norman
was added in the offseason presumably because he is one of HC Sean
McDermott's guys from their days together in Carolina, but quarterbacks
posted an 8:1 TD-to-INT ratio and compiled a passer rating of 133.3
while throwing in his coverage last season. He figures to be much
better in the Bills' zone scheme, but a return to his glory days
is unlikely considering he'll turn 33 before the end of the season.
Base: It's OK to take most of the color codes attached to the Dolphins
above with a grain of salt. Except for Godchaux and Wilkins, just
about every other projected starter on the base defense got hurt
or was playing somewhere else in 2019. Bringing in former Patriots
linebackers Roberts and Van Noy was critical to bring some respectability
to the run defense. However, it will fall on the shoulders of Wilkins
and his ability to attract double teams that will likely determine
if Miami can raise its play to a level where it can field a league-average
run defense.
Sub: Many of Bill Belichick's coaching disciples tend to be proponents
of man coverage, and HC Brian Flores fell in line last year by using
man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league. He did that
despite losing Howard halfway into the season and cycling through
cornerbacks at a dizzying rate. So it goes without saying that adding
Jones and Igbinoghene to a defensive backfield that returns Howard
means Flores will be relying even more on man coverage. It's important
to keep in mind Howard was not playing well before hurting his knee
last year and Jones has been called out for his inability to turn
pass breakups into interceptions (he has only two picks in five
pro seasons). All this is to say that while Miami may become a nightmare
matchup for receivers in the near future, there's no guarantee of
that happening right away - especially considering Miami still needs
help pressuring the quarterback. Expect quarterbacks to be conservative
with Howard initially while they try to rough up Igbinoghene in
the slot in sub packages. Given the choice between just Howard and
Jones, recent history suggests opponents will try their luck with
the latter.
Base: Belichick probably has his work cut out for him more with
this year's defense than at any point in at least 10 years. Granted,
he didn't lose anyone on the level of Richard Seymour, Willie
McGinest or Ty Law, but Miami and Detroit alone robbed his team
of five starters or solid complementary players who logged significant
snaps last year. Given the fact New England's vaunted secondary
remains intact, the Patriots play man coverage about as much as
any team and the front seven lacks a player that demands a double
team, it should come as no surprise if they play zero coverage
(no deep safety help) and load the box at a higher rate than they
did last year.
Sub: The recipe is here for running backs to be extremely busy.
The Patriots have perhaps the best cornerback in the game right
now in Gilmore and two other very good ones in Jackson and Jones.
Devin McCourty graded out in coverage at 89.1 and is a good bet
to silence all but the most elite tight ends he'll face. However,
the bulk of New England's linebacker corps weighs at least 250 pounds.
Bulk alone is not enough of a reason to suggest a linebacker might
struggle in coverage, but it doesn't take a master strategist much
time to realize it's a much better idea for an offense to try its
luck isolating scatbacks on Hightower and Bentley as opposed to
challenging the likes of Gilmore, Jackson or the McCourty brothers.
Base: It is shocking New York only had two players assigned with
green grades against the run last season, especially considering
Mosley missed most of the season and Williamson didn't play at all.
The Jets finished right at the league average in terms of the number
of rushing attempts they faced per game (26.1), so their stoutness
against the run was not necessarily a product of opponents simply
attacking them through the air and ignoring the run. The return
of both inside linebackers - plus a return to form by Anderson -
and the continued standout play of Adams could make defense nearly
impenetrable at times. The only potential weakness that could be
exploited along the front seven is at outside linebacker (Basham
and Jenkins), both of whom are better pass rushers than run stoppers.
Sub: The Jets desperately need Adams and Poole to remain stalwarts
at their spots, respectively, as Desir fell off precipitously following
a banner 2018 campaign. He will turn 30 at the start of the season
and be counted upon to be the team's top corner despite the fact
cornerback-needy Indianapolis released him. Austin was limited to
seven games as a rookie after entering the league as a sixth-round
draft pick in 2019. If anyone can find a way to make Desir and Austin
a formidable duo, it is DC Gregg Williams, but make no mistake about
it: Desir and Austin enter the season as the defense's weakest links
by a wide margin. Hall has the potential to be the secondary's saving
grace, but he slipped to the sixth round of this year's draft after
suffering a serious left ankle injury in 2019. While he should be
fine long-term, there's no guarantee he'll be 100 percent by Week
1.
Base: The Cowboys took a hit from a talent perspective defensively
this offseason when they lost Robert Quinn and Byron Jones, but
the front seven should be better with the additions of Poe and
McCoy as well as the healthy return of Vander Esch. Lee has long
been a standout for Dallas, but he'll turn 34 before the start
of the season and has been a mostly average player at best over
the last two years when he has been on the field. He's the weakest
link among the front seven as things stand at the moment - at
least when it comes to running downs.
Sub: McCoy figures to benefit greatly from the presence of Lawrence
and give Dallas a 1-2 defensive tackle-defensive end punch that
it hasn't had in years. Assuming those two men live up to their
reputations, Gallimore could make this defense a formidable one
if he plays up to his talent level and comes on quickly (a big ask
for any rookie defensive lineman). Vander Esch and Smith are solid
in coverage at linebacker, leaving the cornerback position as the
biggest question mark in sub packages. Brown has had his good moments
in four years with the Cowboys, but he's as stretched as a second
corner just as much as Awuzie is as the top corner. If the pass
rush doesn't bring it as expected, quarterbacks and fantasy owners
should feel free to target this secondary. Both safety spots should
be in good hands with Xavier Woods and Clinton-Dix - a duo that
allowed one touchdown pass in its coverage last year.
Base: The Giants are the most recent example of a defense where
last year's stats can be quite misleading when projecting this
year's potential performance. This unit has the chance to be very
good against the run in 2020. Opponents ran on New York an average
of 29.3 times (fourth-most) in 2019, yet the team's 3.9 YPC allowed
was on par with a team like the Steelers (3.8). The Giants boast
impressive depth and girth along their three-man front and every
member is quite athletic, making a repeat of that performance
very likely. Also helping the cause is the addition of Martinez
to replace Alec Ogletree, who struggled mightily in the run game
last year despite having the best protection an inside linebacker
could ask for from his three-man line. Martinez's forte is in
coverage, but he wasn't afforded the luxury of having Williams,
Tomlinson and Lawrence eating up space in Green Bay last year.
Outside of the line, Mayo may have been the next biggest reason
for New York's ability to hold up against the run as well as it
did.
Sub: New York obviously had issues in the secondary last season
and wasn't able to fix them all this offseason, but the team took
a few steps in the right direction. Bradberry shadowed Mike Evans
(twice), Julio Jones (twice), Michael Thomas (twice), DeAndre Hopkins
and D.K. Metcalf last year and gave up a single touchdown to the
group as well as only two TDs for the season. McKinney should be
the next in a long line of former Alabama safeties to perform well
in the pros; along with Peppers, the Giants should prove to be formidable
against tight ends. New York's biggest vulnerability, however, is
the lack of a game-changing pass-rusher and the quality of its corners
after Bradberry. Even if we assume Baker avoids any punishment for
his off-field adventure this spring, he allowed quarterbacks to
throw for eight touchdowns versus no interceptions and record a
130.9 passer rating in his coverage as a rookie. He should be better
in Year 2, but he'll need to improve a lot just to get to average.
Haley's size (5-9) limits him to slot duties for the most part,
but he wasn't particularly good at that either last season.
Base: The only significant change in the front seven was swapping
out Timmy Jernigan with Javon Hargrave, who came into his own
over his final two seasons with the Steelers. Gerry is a former
college safety who has yet to consistently prove he can hold up
well against the run, while Riley is also an undersized linebacker
more known for his coverage skills. If there is anywhere to attack
the front seven in the run game, it is those two players on the
perimeter. Perhaps one of the three linebackers Philadelphia drafted
can provide some assistance in that regard, but only third-rounder
Davion Taylor projects as a player ready to contribute in 2020.
Unfortunately, at 6-0 and 228 pounds, he's cut from the same cloth
Gerry and Riley are.
Sub: Slay's red grade is not reflective of the threat he poses
to opposing receivers. While he did give up 689 yards receiving
and three touchdowns last year, he also limited wideouts to a
catch rate of 58.3 percent for a Detroit defense that didn't get
a ton of pressure on the quarterback. That shouldn't be a problem
for Philadelphia. The only question is whether or not he will
act as a shadow as often as he did for the Lions. Robey-Coleman
has been very effective in the slot for several years and should
be another matchup fantasy owners try to avoid when possible.
The question then becomes if Maddox can step up in Year 3 or LeBlanc
can bounce back. Mills is a converted cornerback who the Eagles
hope can make a somewhat smooth move to free safety (never a guarantee
considering the different pursuit and vision angles), while McLeod
has consistently graded out well in coverage for six straight
seasons.
Base: Put simply, if the additions of Young and Thomas Davis
don't improve this run defense significantly, it's probably not
going to happen. Washington is set to emulate the 2019 49ers as
a team with five former first-round picks on the defensive line
(only Ryan Kerrigan is expected not to start) and all of them
could be unleashed under new DC Jack Del Rio. (Let's just say
I have a low opinion of former DC Greg Manusky.) Assuming those
players come anywhere close to maximizing their talent level,
Washington could have a legitimately menacing defense - certainly
against the run at least. Holcomb and Bostic are the wild-cards,
and they will probably be the two players opponents will target
in the run and pass game regardless of how they perform.
Sub: Young may be a top-10 defensive end in
the NFL before he takes his first snap. His presence alone should
make Ioannidis, Allen and Sweat better, and there is little doubt
offensive coordinators will be forced to shift protection his
way right away. Thomas Davis is getting old enough (37) that it
should be expected that his coverage abilities won't rebound and
Bostic has been a replacement-level player for some time now,
so running backs and short-area tight ends (a player like Jack
Doyle, for example) should feast in the passing game. Washington
didn't lose anything by parting with Josh Norman, but the trade
of Quinton Dunbar to Seattle was a big blow after he broke out
last season. Moreau and Darby are both probably upgrades on Norman,
but neither one can be expected to replace Dunbar. Sean Davis
is coming off a lost season in which he played in only one game
due to a shoulder injury, but neither he nor Collins have ever
graded out particularly well in coverage. All in all, the front
four gives this defense a chance to improve on last year's numbers,
but there are still too many weaknesses on the back end. Fantasy
owners should not hesitate to target perimeter receiver matchups
against this defense.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football
Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long,
pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13
and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio
shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
