There is no hidden agenda when it comes to my SSI algorithm. I plug
in the values and let the computer work its magic from there. With
that said, it was fortuitous that four of my most favorite late-round
targets all ended up in a cluster of five players, beginning with
Alexander
Mattison at No. 111.
One key point to make before proceeding: perhaps the hardest task
any fantasy analyst has might be trying to predict when a coach
has seen enough from his starter and is ready to go with the young
guy. Trying to predict when the starter is going to get hurt is
another nearly impossible task. With that said, there are several
players outside the top 100 who are one injury away from being a
top-20 player at their position.
My support of Mattison has less to do with hedging my bet on
Dalvin Cook
staying healthy and more to do with a belief the Vikings are going
to be judicious with the latter's workload, likely keeping him
under 15 carries per game. For a team that wants to pound the
rock, it means Mattison should have standalone value in the same
way Rashaad
Penny should in Seattle. Having a handcuff that can be used
as a flex option AND serves as depth to a stud starter is worth
his weight in fantasy gold, especially since the majority of supposed
handcuffs end up not being worth a roster spot. The rookie may
also provide the added bonus of being the primary goal-line back
in Minnesota. Owners should consider what Latavius
Murray did the last two years in Minnesota when Cook was healthy
as Mattison's floor; he should be a more-than-capable RB3.
For a brief time last year, I thought Marquez Valdes-Scantling
was going to be the answer to my prayers on a number of my high-stakes
teams. Alas, it was not meant to be as he barely caught half of
his targets and went through a five-week stretch in which he saw
more than three targets only once. It is debatable how much different
Year 2 is going to be, but it does seem clear that he has caught
the attention of Aaron Rodgers with his offseason work. While
his exact role remains unclear because it appears Geronimo Allison
will man the slot and probably split snaps with him in two-wide
formations, Valdes-Scantling offers a bit of the somewhat consistent
splash-play vibe that made DeSean Jackson a solid fantasy WR3
for a number of years.
It's anyone's guess as to whether or not Justice Hill is Mark
Ingram's true handcuff or if Baltimore wants to keep him in more
of a change-of-pace role regardless. The latter is the most likely,
but what makes Hill and his situation unique is that he plays
in an offense that could run the ball in upwards of 600 times
AND has a supremely athletic quarterback in Lamar Jackson that
will keep defenses from getting too aggressive. Regarding the
high-volume running game, there will likely be roughly 200 carries
up for grabs even if we assume Ingram finishes with 200-plus and
Jackson with 150-plus. Half of those are almost certain to go
to Hill, who is one of the few backs who could realistically make
a noticeable dent in the box score every week with only eight
to 10 touches. In the event Ingram misses a game or two, the Ravens
will be hard-pressed to feed Gus Edwards 20 touches when Hill
has the ability to score just about every time he gets the ball
in his hands.
Derrius Guice should be the future in Washington. The problem
is his team re-signed a no-brainer Hall of Famer at his position
who is coming off a 1,000-yard season and has no desire to play
the role of mentor quite yet. Chris Thompson is still a very effective
player on passing downs. In short, Guice probably isn't going
to open the season as his team's top early-down or passing-down
back despite the likelihood he is the team's best back. Making
matters worse for him is an offensive line in flux and a starting
quarterback in Case Keenum who isn't going to command enough respect
to keep opponents from loading the box. Can he overcome all of
that? Possibly. However, expecting him to do that with limited
touches - as part of a three-man committee - is probably too much
to ask. Talented backs with unquestioned roles and huge workloads
can overcome a lot of their team's shortcomings. Guice has none
of that going for him and a supporting cast that might be among
the worst in the league. It is quite possible Washington turns
the backfield over to him if the team is out of contention in
December, but most fantasy owners can't afford to wait until the
fantasy playoffs to see a payoff from their likely RB3.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.