In short, anywhere from a third to roughly a half of most football games change as the game changes. When a team falls more than one score behind, they will inevitably throw the ball more than they expected to during the practice week. When a team consistently plays with a lead, they will run the ball more often. This should not come as mind-blowing information. Nevertheless, there is plenty to be learned from studying play-caller tendencies and, more specifically, how much they rely on certain players to carry the offense. While the situation a team finds itself in during the course of the game will generally affect volume, coaches don't typically go away from their best players whether they are down by 10 or ahead by 14. And even though play-callers don't deliver the ball to the intended target on every play, they do draw up the plays designed to get the ball to their playmakers. That alone make studying their tendencies - especially over multiple seasons when possible - a good idea.

This two-part series is my latest attempt to provide each of you - as well as myself - a better grasp of the way players are able to reach the statistical heights they do (or don't), focusing primarily on the recent history of the men who will call the shots. Given the injury rate of players and turnover rate of coaches, be advised this will be far from a perfect exercise. With that said, I think you will find some of the information below to be fascinating and perhaps even helpful. Last week, I covered the AFC. This week, we take a look at the NFC:

Most of the setup below should be fairly self-explanatory, but I'll break it down anyway. The RB1/WR1/TE1 designations are based on carry share (the percentage of a team's carries by a player) and target share (the percentage of a team's targets by a player). I limited the play-callers' histories to three seasons in order to conserve space and keep the information somewhat relevant. (Oakland's Jon Gruden will be a notable exception to this rule, as I will go back to his final three seasons as a coach about 10 years ago.) The bolded numbers right below the headings of "carry share" and "target share" are the team totals in those respective columns to give you some sense of the actual workload. Last but not least, the coaches listed below the team name are the men responsible for calling plays this year.

ARI | ATL | CAR | CHI | DAL | DET | GB | LAR | MIN | NO | NYG | PHI | SF | SEA | TB | WAS

Arizona
OC Mike McCoy

McCoy made his name as a highly adaptable play-caller who is able to produce better-than-expected results from offenses led by Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow and Peyton Manning (the year after he missed a season due to multiple next surgeries). In his last two stops (the Chargers' head coach from 2013-16 and the Broncos' offensive coordinator for 10 games in 2017), however, it's fair to question if his presence has hurt his offenses more than it has helped. It could be argued he's had a feature back in each of the last three seasons and used him like a workhorse once (Woodhead was lost for the year in Week 2 of the 2016 season, leading to Gordon's heavy workload). While we really shouldn't have much to worry about when it comes to David Johnson, it could be argued McCoy has never employed a true three-down workhorse without having his hand forced in some way. Does it mean David Johnson isn't going to see something approaching the 373 offensive touches he did in 2016? Probably not, especially given the lack of durability of Sam Bradford, the inexperience of Josh Rosen and the lack of proven playmakers at receiver. However, it may mean likely backup Chase Edmonds will get a bit more action in 2018 than second-string backs like Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington did in recent seasons.

It's only fair to cut McCoy some slack for his failings in the passing game in the above three-year sample. Trevor Siemian was exposed as a starting quarterback last season and Sanders never quite got over the high-ankle sprain he suffered in October. In the previous two years, McCoy had Allen for a total of nine games. The point to be made is I'm not sure we can read a lot into McCoy's recent past when it comes to the passing game. Thomas did enjoy a 25 percent target share last season, although it's questionable what other options Denver had once Sanders got hurt. McCoy showed some flexibility in 2016 when Allen was lost in Week 1, as Williams enjoyed a 20-plus target share despite being considered primarily a deep threat entering the season. Allen was well on his way to being featured in 2015 before going down midway through the season. Based on a deeper look into his history, McCoy appears to feature one receiver more often than spreads the wealth, which seems to be the case in the chart above. Either way, it doesn't seem as though Larry Fitzgerald has much to worry about. It's fair to question how much McCoy prioritizes the running backs in the passing game; only Woodhead (16.1 percent in 2015) received a hefty target share, especially when we consider Gordon had the backfield mostly to himself in 2016. Gates and Henry were targeted heavily in the same year, but McCoy hasn't shown much willingness to force-feed his tight ends otherwise. While this doesn't necessarily stop the Ricky Seals-Jones' hype train in its tracks, it is at least mildly concerning. Still, as arguably the team's second-most dynamic playmaker, his target share should be no lower than 12 percent

Atlanta
OC Steve Sarkisian

The carry shares for Freeman and Coleman make it appear as if the Falcons utilized a near split backfield in 2017, but that really wasn't the case. In the 12 games in which both players started and finished, Freeman enjoyed a 172:97 advantage in carries. Where they were nearly even in those same contests was catching the ball, as Freeman hauled in 31-of-40 targets while Coleman was 25-for-36. Coleman has already made it clear he believes he will be used more the passing game this season, so perhaps Sarkisian believes doing so will allow Freeman to stay fresh enough to handle about 60 percent of the carries in an effort to avoiding wear down like he did last December. (For the sake of comparison, Freeman had a 53.9 percent carry share in 2016 and 63.1 share in 2015 under former OC Kyle Shanahan.) It is worth noting Freeman's 9.1 percent target share was easily his low in three seasons as the Falcons' lead back, but it was also a product of him missing the better part of three games with his second concussion of the season. Coleman's 7.5 percent target share was the exact same mark he enjoyed in 2016.

Despite all the handwringing when it comes to Jones' disappointing 2017 season, it should be known that his target share was almost halfway in between his 32.9 percent mark in 2015 and 24.3 mark in 2016. We've already discussed he's a prime candidate for positive touchdown regression, if only because he is a near-lock to catch more than five (and score on only one) of his 19 targets in the red zone. Unless Jones decides he's going to miss some regular-season games to protest his contract, his target share is going to remain pretty healthy. Sanu (18.6 percent) saw a similar target share to Marvin Jones (18.9) and actually finished with six more catches (67-61) in 2017, but the difference between them at the end of last year was startling (WR11 for Jones, WR30 for Sanu) because Jones gets deep (18 yards per catch versus 10.5 for Sanu) and scored four more touchdowns. Gabriel's 9.9 target share should be taken as a positive for Calvin Ridley, if only because the rookie is every bit the deep threat and a more polished route-runner. It wouldn't come as a shock if he and Sanu finish with similar target shares in 2018. If I had to choose one over the other, the advantage should go to Ridley, who should take over for Sanu as the starter at some point. Hooper tallied 30 more catches in 2017 than he did as a rookie, but his YPC dipped from 14.3 to 10.7 and his TD production didn't change (three). With Ridley now in the mix, it's hard to see Hooper repeating his 12.6 percent target share.

Carolina
OC Norv Turner

Turner's history with the Vikings doesn't exactly bode well for Christian McCaffrey as he projects to be more like McKinnon and C.J. Anderson is more Asiata. With that said, it's more than a stretch to compare the two situations because McCaffrey is such a complete back at this stage of his career whereas McKinnon just making a full-time transition to the position to begin his pro career in 2014. Anderson is more of the pounder in the Asiata mode, although the former is a considerably better football player overall. Turner's history (Emmitt Smith, Terry Allen, Stephen Davis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ricky Williams, Frank Gore, Peterson, etc.) suggests he prefers a workhorse back, but there is also plenty of examples (2014 in the chart above, for one) in which he employs more of a shared backfield. So does Turner see McCaffrey as a feature back? With very few exceptions, Carolina has used a tandem backfield under HC Ron Rivera, as only one back exceeded 218 carries under his watch (Jonathan Stewart with 242 in 2015) and only a handful had over 200. No running back under Rivera has run for more than 1,000 yards either. It makes the likelihood of McCaffrey reaching 200 carries - especially with a capable back like Anderson around - seem like more of a pipe dream, even if Rivera said he wouldn't have a problem with feeding him that often. A more likely scenario has McCaffrey ending up with about 150 rushing attempts, while Anderson pushes for 175-185 and Cam Newton dips slightly into the 120 range. If that sounds like a high overall total, it is. However, Carolina ran 490 times last year and has never finished with fewer than 445 since Rivera and Newton arrived together in 2011.

Even more than trying to utilize McCaffrey correctly, Rivera brought Turner to Carolina in hopes he could take Newton to the next level. Turner hasn't worked with a truly mobile quarterback in a while (Alex Smith wasn't used that way in 2006) and certainly not one with Newton's athleticism. Does Turner build on his reputation of getting playmakers into space and letting them do their thing on short passes or does he bring back "old Norv," who used the power running game to set up the vertical passing attack? The Panthers' current personnel suggests the former, which would be wonderful news for McCaffrey and rookie D.J. Moore in particular, because both players are so hard to corral in space. One thing seems certain: Devin Funchess isn't going to see a repeat of his 22.6 percent target share, nor will Greg Olsen finish at 7.7 again barring a setback with his foot. (Check here in case an explanation is required.) Given the lack of a true superstar receiver, the presence of Olsen and a back with the pass-catching ability of McCaffrey, it's fair to assume the balance among wideouts that seemed to be a hallmark of Turner's offenses in Minnesota will remain in place in Carolina. Turner's presence has long been a good thing for tight ends; Rudolph was on track for roughly 13 percent of the target share before getting hurt halfway through the season in 2014 before posting a 16.5 mark while playing all 16 games one year later.

Perhaps just as impressive as Hunt's heavy workload under Nagy was the fact Kelce (25.8 percent) and Hill (25.2) were kept plenty busy as well - it's incredibly rare for one team to have two players featured so prominently, especially with one being a tight end. Hill and Allen Robinson are significantly different players and Trey Burton (6-3, 235) is quite a bit smaller than Kelce (6-5, 260), but it's not out of the question Robinson and Burton can come relatively close to the marks of Nagy's former pupils as the featured playmakers of the passing game (along with Cohen). It seems like it's only going to take a matter of time before Anthony Miller overtakes Taylor Gabriel, who is on his third team in four years and has yet to prove he is anything more than a good deep threat. Miller is supposedly earmarked for the slot to begin the season, which puts him in direct competition with Cohen for targets in between the hashes. There will be some opportunity for either Gabriel or Miller to be viable as a good fantasy reserve if one of them can quickly overtake the other and grab the majority of Wilson's 15.5 percent target share, but the likelihood is both will likely finish with around 10 percent. The good news with Chicago's passing game from a fantasy perspective this year is the same "problem" Kansas City had with Nagy: four players (Robinson, Cohen, Burton and Gabriel/Miller) are going to soak up the majority of the targets, giving owners some predictability entering drafts.

Dallas
OC Scott Linehan

There doesn't figure to be a lot of mystery with the Cowboys' backfield in 2018. Elliott's 64.7 percent carry share should be the expectation - and perhaps maybe even the floor - for him this season. Rod Smith figures to be the clear No. 2 back, but his job description is going to be a lot like Morris' in 2016, albeit with a slightly larger target share given his ability as a receiver. The unknown factor in this backfield - or wherever he lines up - will be Tavon Austin. It seems pretty clear Dallas has plans for him, but does it make any sense for him to be a "web back" when running back is arguably the one skill position (outside of quarterback) where the team is strong? Elliott averaged 26.8 touches in the 10 games in which he was active last season - a number that isn't going to drop much (if at all) given the question marks at receiver and tight end. If we assume for a second the Cowboys are considering roughly nine touches per game for Austin, we are already at 35 plays per game without talking much about the passing game. Taking the ball out of Elliott's hands to get more touches for Austin seems ridiculous. While it is not out of the realm of possibility it happens, owners should figure on Austin's role diminishing fairly quickly if Dallas doesn't start fast.

The Cowboys have been remarkably consistent in terms of getting at least four players (and sometimes five pre-Elliott) a healthy target share despite not boasting a lot of dynamic receiving talent beyond Bryant, whose 27.2 percent target share is now gone, as is Witten's 17.9 percent. (That's 219 targets, or 45.1 percent of the target share from a year ago.) Blake Jarwin will be lucky to attract half of Witten's share - assuming he ends up being the starter at tight end - and Williams probably isn't going to see over 16 percent of the targets again if Dallas is actually interested in being a competitive offense this season. In short, even if Austin absorbs Witten's other half of the share, we are still left with one or two receivers trying to replace Bryant's 132 missing targets and then some. What it all means is Allen Hurns should expect about 100 targets. The problem with that is rookie Michael Gallup is a better playmaker. In Dallas' dream scenario this season, Hurns stays healthy enough to attract a 20 percent target share, Elliott and Austin each get roughly 10 percent or more and Gallup fills the target void left behind by Witten while everyone else fights for remaining 40 or so percent of the target share.

Detroit
OC Jim Bob Cooter

Cooter has been on the job full-time for the last two seasons after taking over midway through the 2015 campaign. As the carry vs. target totals suggest, this has been an offense that hasn't enjoyed much balance, instead relying on the short passing game to serve as its rushing attack. Cooter seems content with a three-headed backfield, although the Lions have stated they believe Kerryon Johnson will be a three-down back one day. For 2018, however, such an occurrence seems highly unlikely. Detroit has tried utilizing big backs like Dwayne Washington and Joique Bell in recent years, but Cooter hasn't given either one more than 90 carries. LeGarrette Blount will change that if he stays healthy, but how much more active can he be sharing time with a more complete back like Johnson? Cooter will probably be happy if the Lions can run the ball 500-plus times for the first time since 2013 while employing a carry share similar to the one they enjoyed in 2015 - 40.6-25.6-12.2 (Ameer Abdullah-Bell-Theo Riddick) - with Johnson, Blount and Riddick occupying those spots this time around, respectively.

Outside of the departure of Ebron, most of the pieces from the passing game remain intact. Owners can debate all they want about whether Tate or Jones is the top receiver now in Detroit. Tate has recorded at least 120 targets and 90 catches in four straight seasons, while Jones has averaged 105 targets and 58 receptions in two seasons as a Lion. With Ebron gone, their target shares might actually increase a bit. Luke Willson is a capable tight end and Michael Roberts will reportedly receive an expanded role this season, but it's unlikely the pair will combine to match Ebron's 15.2 percent target share from last season. Maybe Riddick gets a bump in targets or Johnson takes on a little more than Abdullah's 6.2 percent target share from last season, but the critical third weapon in this offense figures to be the third receiver. Golladay and T.J. Jones may appear similar on the chart above, but they are not. While each player logged 11 games last season and finished within one target of each other (Jones had 49, Golladay 48), Golladay flashed incredible upside (when he wasn't battling a nagging hamstring injury) whereas Jones did not. Golladay is a prime candidate to inherit whatever vacant targets Willson and Roberts don't grab from Ebron and add them to his total while stealing about half of T.J. Jones' looks. As such, the second-year Northern Illinois product could easily push for 80-plus targets and push for Boldin's 2016 target share in 2018.

Green Bay
HC Mike McCarthy

Contrary to what the percentages say above (and what he has said in recent years), McCarthy seems to prefer one three-down back over a committee. (Look no further than his usage of Montgomery early last year and Lacy early in his Packers' career.) Whereas it became clearer as last summer progressed that Montgomery was going to be the man to begin the season, there doesn't seem to be a leader in the clubhouse right now. Jones didn't help himself by getting suspended for two games for violating the league's substance abuse policy and may have made himself a third-stringer to begin the year as a result. While Williams would seem like the favorite given how he finished 2017, McCarthy is talking a pretty good game right now as it relates to Montgomery, telling ESPN's Rob Demovsky: "We have to take advantage of Ty's skills … The offense is suited for that." That alone probably makes him the Green Bay back to bet on, although it hard to go all-in on a runner who averaged three yards per carry in his first three games as the main man before getting hurt early in the fourth game and playing a secondary role thereafter. Jones makes the most sense as the early-down back with Montgomery playing on passing downs, but it remains to be see if the former can work his way out of the doghouse. The most likely outcome in Green Bay is a split similar to last year, although I do expect one man to take over the backfield before the end of the season.

With Nelson gone to Oakland and not a lot of proven playmaking receivers on the roster, the stage is set for Adams to push for 25 and perhaps maybe even a Nelson-like (circa 2014) 28 percent target share. Cobb seems to be a lot of people's favorite value pick this season, but the red zone chops he had as a youngster haven't been seen very often in three years. His yards per catch have dipped in three straight seasons as well. While he remains the favorite to take on a good chunk of the targets Nelson leaves behind, I'm not sure Green Bay really wants to expand his role much, if only because durability has been an issue for him as well. Although Jimmy Graham appears to be in decline, it seems more realistic he absorbs Bennett's target share and about half of Nelson's. The x-factor is Geronimo Allison or possibly J'Mon Moore. Allison is not a special athlete by any stretch of imagination, but people said the same thing about Adams a few years ago. Any potential starting receiver in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense is a potential starter in fantasy as well, and Allison has fared well on occasion when called upon. His emergence into someone Rodgers trusts implicitly is another potential roadblock for Cobb. Moore is a superior talent to Allison, but I get the feel McCarthy will ultimately pick and choose his spots with the rookie this year before giving him a real chance to beat out Allison in 2019.

Los Angeles Rams
HC Sean McVay

While Gurley's job as the early-down workhorse hasn't been in question since the day he was drafted, Lance Dunbar was supposed to be the third-down back last season. As it turned out, Gurley enjoyed a Le'Veon Bell-like target share. There's really not a whole lot else that needs to be said, as Gurley should be a near-lock for 60 percent of the carry share again this season. The one difference in the backfield should be the identity of the player backing him up. John Kelly flew under the radar at Tennessee and again at draft time, but he's a better prospect than current backup Malcolm Brown. It's not unthinkable Kelly steals Brown's 13.9 percent carry share and maybe a third or a half of the 59 carries Austin had in 2017.

It's easy to forget Woods missed three games due to injury before sitting out Week 17 with most of the rest of the starters. Had it not been for those three missed games, he may have pushed for a 20 percent target share in McVay's offense - just like Garcon did the previous two seasons. Woods may not be the obvious No. 1 receiver in this offense for those who don't follow the Rams, but he's earned that right and has the trust of McVay to handle that role. Cooks is going to see a bigger target share than Watkins did, if only because he is going to be more familiar with his surroundings, but owners need to expect a drop-off. (Going from Drew Brees and Tom Brady to Jared Goff is kind of a big deal.) Even with a 16 percent target share, Cooks may struggle to be a consistent WR2, much like Jackson did in Washington. Kupp thrived in the Crowder slot role as a rookie and should be a good bet to come close to matching his 18.4 target share, although he's the most likely receiver to give up a few targets to Cooks. It was widely speculated Everett would be the Rams' version of Reed shortly after they drafted him in the second round last April. Look for a slight move in that direction this season, although a true Reed-like impact is probably at least a year or two away, especially with four viable targets each accounting for at least 15 percent of the target share.

Minnesota
HC John DeFilippo

Things are going to be a bit different for DeFilippo than they were in Cleveland. It could be argued the Vikings are better at every spot above with the exception of Johnson being a better "backup" running back than Latavius Murray. While we must remember Murray was still in the process of recovering from an injury last September, Dalvin Cook assumed 85.9 percent of the carry share and 12.9 percent of the target share in the three games he started and finished. Is that realistic over a full season? Probably not, especially the former number. It wouldn't be a complete surprise to see Murray accept a 20-30 percent carry share in September and maybe even October in an effort to give Cook some more time to regain confidence in his knee, but DeFilippo would be a fool to not feature Cook if he proves he is ready by then. As much as it hurts me to say as a Cook supporter, Murray will probably be given the opportunity to be the goal-line back simply because he is making $5 million per season and 20 pounds heavier than the 210-pound Cook. For what it is worth, the former Raider converted an acceptable one-half of his runs inside the 3 into touchdowns (6-of-12) last season.

As I suggested in the previous paragraph, Stefon Diggs-Adam Thielen-Kyle Rudolph is a step above Benjamin-Hartline-Barnidge. Perhaps more importantly, it seems highly unlikely Minnesota will attempt 600 passes with one of the best defenses in the league keeping the team in positive game script more often than not. The natural inclination for most might be to assume Kirk Cousins will favor the slot (Jamison Crowder) and tight end (Jordan Reed) in this offense because that was what he did in Washington. I think that would be a mistake for a multitude of reasons, such as different play-caller, different supporting cast, different regular opponents, etc. The best thing owners can take away from the chart above is DeFilippo was intelligent enough to recognize Benjamin and Barnidge were his best pass-catchers, and he made sure they were heavily targeted despite the fact Cleveland gave Josh McCown, Johnny Manziel and Austin Davis starts under center in 2015. Maybe we can even surmise Minnesota will throw a bit more given his heavy background as a quarterbacks coach, although I think that is a stretch. It’s probably unwise trying to squeeze any more rock-solid tendencies out of a comparison between the 2015 Browns and 2018 Vikings.

New Orleans
HC Sean Payton

Although the shift might have started well before, it seemed as though the Kamara's "promotion" from 1B to 1A in this offense came in the playoffs. The thing is, Kamara had only two more rushing attempts than Ingram during the two-game run (21-19). Kamara also never carried more than 12 times in a game, and I think owners need to acknowledge the possibility there may plenty of games this season where Kamara gets 12 carries and Ingram gets 10. And in any game where the Saints are trying to run the clock out, Ingram figures to get those rushing attempts as well. It also needs to be said Kamara averaged 9.5 carries in the 11 games in which he started and finished the game following the trade of Adrian Peterson. The only thing to take notice of is the combined target share of both backs: 32.3 percent. If that looks ridiculously high, it is. Most teams are stretched to have all of their backs combine for much over 20 percent. What's the reason? (It's not because that's what a Payton-led offense does, as we can see above.) New Orleans did not have a slot receiver or tight end it could trust last season. The Saints addressed both shortcomings this spring (Cameron Meredith and Benjamin Watson). Back in Darren Sproles' finest year as a Saint in 2012, his target share was 15.8 percent. Expect Kamara's target share to fall back in line with Sproles' and Ingram's target share to drop at least three or four percent.

Rare is the time when a receiver sees his target share increase 10 percent from one year to the next and his overall fantasy production remains roughly the same. Some of it was poor luck and some of it was lack of overall team volume (136-target drop from 2016 to 2017). The odds are Thomas will see roughly the same amount of targets this year as he did last year (149), but his target share will go down while his touchdown production rebounds. While Ginn more than held his own as a complementary wideout, it seems reasonable to assume Payton would prefer using him more often in the vertical receiver role in this offense that Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Donte Stallworth and Kenny Stills have filled over the years. Fleener basically lost the trust of everyone in the offense and offered nothing as a run blocker at a position where the starter (Watson in 2015 and Graham for several years before that) have seen healthy target shares. Watson may not return to his 17 percent target share from three years ago, but he's a solid bet to beat Fleener's 12.2 mark from 2016. Meredith was added in free agency to address the lack of a threat the team had in the slot (421 of the 977 yards the Saints had in the slot last year were from Kamara), which was an area on the field that had produced at least 1,000 yards under Payton every year since 2006. Meredith is a great bet to match and likely exceed the production Snead enjoyed in 2015 and 2016.

New York Giants
HC Pat Shurmur

Three of Shurmur's last five offenses have finished inside the top 10 in rush attempts, although it's debatable how much of that has been a function of the coach he served under in one stop (Chip Kelly in Philadelphia) and inordinate amount of positive game script last season with the Vikings. Based on draft capital alone, Saquon Barkley is going to get every chance to handle around 70 percent of the carry share in this backfield. As referenced earlier, Dalvin Cook assumed 85.9 percent of the carry share and 12.9 percent of the target share in the three games he started and finished last year with Minnesota. While the carry share is too high for just about any back to handle over the course of a full season, Cook's target share should be a good starting point for Barkley. Jonathan Stewart may steal the occasional short yardage carry in order to protect Barkley for the long-term, but if either Stewart or Wayne Gallman finish with much more than a 10 percent carry share, New York did itself a disservice drafting the Penn State product. Barkley is also refined and dynamic enough as a receiver that he should be a near-lock for at least 70 (and probably more like 80) targets.

Using the 2017 Vikings to help project the 2018 Giants seems like a useless exercise for a number of reasons. Eli Manning and Case Keenum are different quarterbacks, Evan Ingram and Rudolph are very different tight ends and Diggs wasn't right for most of the season, so we'll probably never know if he would have been the one to end up with the 27.3 percent target share Thielen had. What does seem clear in 1 1/2 years as the play-caller in Minnesota is that tight end is an important part of Shurmur's game plan. Over the last four seasons, no starting tight end under Shurmur (Zach Ertz and Rudolph) has finished with fewer than 57 receptions. Manning seems to believe Sterling Shepard is poised for a huge year, and that again makes sense when looking at Shurmur's recent track record, as Thielen (2017), Diggs (2016) and Jordan Mathews (2014) have all thrived as the primary slot receiver in his offense. Of course, he is smart enough to understand Odell Beckham Jr. will be the centerpiece of the passing game. Once again, Thielen and Jeremy Maclin (2014) are prime recent examples of lead receivers being very fantasy-friendly and being trusted with heavy target shares in Shurmur's offense. It would be an upset if Beckham doesn't see at least 25 percent - and probably closer to 30 percent - of the target share this season.

Philadelphia
HC Doug Pederson

From the time Ajayi played his first game as an Eagle in Week 9 through the end of the Super Bowl, he posted a carry share of 35.4. Blount was at 32.3. With the latter now in Detroit, we all know it's not as easy as just giving his carry share to Ajayi, but Philadelphia is talking up more of a featured role for Ajayi in 2018. As such, it is possible for he'll assume 50 percent of the carries this season while still leaving plenty for Darren Sproles and Clement. But is it probable? Clement made enough of an impression during the playoff run to earn more opportunities, right? It's probably only fair to expect Sproles' 21.5/18.8 carry/target share split to go down, given Clement's emergence and the fact Sproles is now 35 years old. If those statements prove to be true (assuming a bump up to a 20 percent carry share for Clement), it leaves about a 10 percent for the quarterbacks, backup running backs and receivers. In short, 50 percent of the carry share seems like a reasonable expectation for Ajayi.

With the exception of swapping out Smith for Mike Wallace, Philadelphia's target share has a decent shot of holding relatively firm. The biggest question is what receiver will pay the biggest statistical price for Sproles' return? While six running backs caught at least one pass in 2017, their combined 13.5 percent target share is about as low as we will see from a group of backs. With Sproles coming back, that number should rise over 20. Pederson has done of fine job at making sure at least four players are involved enough to the point where they are viable in fantasy. Jeffery's 21.6 percent target share seems like it should be his ceiling in this offense, especially with Wallace being a better option than Smith. If his exceptional touchdown rate of one TD every 6.3 catches takes much of a hit in 2018, Jeffery could disappoint owners expecting a repeat of last year's production. It would make the most sense if Agholor took the biggest hit with Sproles' return, but he seems to at least have something of a safety net given the fact he tied Ertz for the team lead with 18 targets inside the 20. Jeffery was at 17, but he's more certain to draw the opponent's best cornerback each week. Ertz finally broke through for a full season in 2018 - instead of teasing owners in December as he had in previous years - and it is entirely possible Pederson wants him to become even more of a focal point of the passing game. His 19.8 percent target share seems pretty safe. It's hard to believe Smith managed anything close to a 12.1 percent target share. If Wallace matches or even slightly exceeds that - not a lock given the presence of Mack Hollins - then he's going to be worth playing as a WR3 on occasion this season.

San Francisco
HC Kyle Shanahan

In three pro seasons before Shanahan's arrival, Hyde totaled 50 catches in 34 games. In his first and only season under Shanahan, he finished with 59. Now imagine what the coach will do with a player who is noted for his ability in the passing game. Perhaps no player has been buzzed about more this offseason than Jerick McKinnon and for good reason. Shanahan has stated he wants a Freeman-Coleman dynamic to his backfield in San Francisco and it's hard to argue he didn't do that last year even though Hyde clearly wasn't the fit he was looking for in his offense. Thus, it would appear we have a roadmap for what the coach wants his backfield workloads to look like. Giving less credibility to 2015 (since Coleman got hurt early and couldn't ever get healthy in his rookie year), Shanahan wants his lead back in the high 50s in terms of carry share in addition to handling a target share of a low-end second receiver. The No. 2 back's job is to pick up where the starter left off and handle roughly half of the starter's carry and target shares, ideally while providing as much - if not more - big-play ability than the starter.

While the running game distribution looks to be relatively clear entering the season, there's a strong argument none of the three seasons above will help owners all that much when it comes to the passing game. Taking just last year as an example, Garcon was well on his way to a 20 percent target share before getting hurt. However, is he in any way comparable to Jones? Has Goodwin really proved he is something more than Gabriel? Trent Taylor and Dante Pettis would seem to be more long-term slots than capable outside receivers. One nugget we may be able to gather from this analysis is something most owners already knew: tight ends are going to get some opportunities. Tamme, who was a league-average player, had 59 catches in 2015 and was on pace for 44 receptions and six touchdowns in a very dynamic Atlanta offense in 2016. In five games with Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter, three tight ends - led by Kittle - combined for 23 catches for 412 yards and three touchdowns on 32 targets (good for a 16-game pace of 74-1,318-9.6-102, which would have rivaled the Eagles and Chiefs for the best in the league). There's no question Kittle has top-10 upside in fantasy this year.

Seattle
OC Brian Schottenheimer

One of the reasons Schottenheimer was hired to replace Darrell Bevell was his willingness to commit to the running game. One of the only things we've heard from Schottenheimer since then is his "we've got to be able to run the ball even when they expect us to" mantra. With just one exception after the 2006 season (2010 with the Jets), Schottenheimer's offenses have been very consistent in terms of letting one back carry the load barring injury. However, most of the previous situations/depth charts were fairly obvious from the start - one exception being Schottenheimer's final season with the Rams in 2014. Rashaad Penny has to be considered the favorite given the draft capital Seattle spent on him this spring, but Chris Carson isn't going to make it easy and has already proven he can get it done - albeit in a very limited sample. As much as most of the fantasy community believes Penny will carry the load almost regardless of how he performs in August, I think there is at least better than a 50 percent chance HC Pete Carroll and Schottenheimer are leaning toward Carson to start the season at the moment.

Schottenheimer has consistently had among the least talented receiving corps in the league in his two NFL stops as an offensive coordinator, which likely makes the combination of Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett one of the better pairs he's had the chance to work with in nine seasons as a play-caller. Lockett most closely resembles Givens from the receivers in the chart above, and it seems likely he'll be able to at least match Givens' best year in terms of target share (16.5 percent) and be able to do more with it given the quality of his quarterback. Jerricho Cotchery (in 2009) was the last receiver in a Schottenheimer offense to record a 20-plus percent target share, but Baldwin is a good bet to end that streak if only because all the other appealing options (Paul Richardson and Jimmy Graham) bolted in free agency. Schottenheimer's offenses have typically featured a high-volume target at tight end (Dustin Keller and Cook among them), but Ed Dickson and Nick Vannett - while capable - are not worth of target shares of 15 percent.

Tampa Bay
HC Dirk Koetter

One can't blame the front office for making a play on Ronald Jones in the draft. After all, Koetter has been saddled with an aging Michael Turner, a past-his-prime Steven Jackson and Martin as his lead back for the entirety of his last two NFL stops (Atlanta and Tampa Bay). When Koetter's offenses have been at their best, his lead running back has typically had a pretty good year. Much like Penny in Seattle, the Bucs would like their rookie to make the decision to give him a featured role an easy one. Tampa Bay believes Jones can be that guy eventually, but there seems to be some question if he can do it as a rookie. While asking for a Martin-like 63.2 carry share (from 2015) is probably setting the bar too high in 2018, there is plenty of reason to believe Jones can hit 50 percent. Tampa Bay hasn't broken off a run of more than 45 yards since 2015. Jones had four 50-yard runs at USC in 2017 alone. Furthermore, he held up well in a featured role with the Trojans last year and is tougher runner than most analysts were willing to give him credit for during the draft process. With the improvements the Bucs made on the offensive line and on defense in the offseason, the rushing attack is almost guaranteed to be better and have more volume - probably to pre-2017 levels - this season. Koetter would probably prefer Jones takes the bull by the horns to the point where he absorbs most of Rodgers' carry share and Barber doesn't need to exceed his 27.7 percent share from last year. Barber figures to be the favorite for goal-line work, however.

Evans had at least a 28.2 percent target share in each of his first two seasons under Koetter - mostly due to a lackluster supporting cast - before dipping to 22.8 in 2017. Perhaps 22.8 will be the new reality given the amount of talent the Bucs now have at the skill positions. If it is in fact the new normal, we might have to look at Evans differently considering he has caught only 53.4 percent of his targets as a pro (and never more than 55.7 percent in a season). Koetter has vowed to get DeSean Jackson more involved in 2018. How much he can do with what figures to be less overall volume and more push for playing time from potential young studs like Godwin and Howard remains to be seen. Still, when coaches issue directives in February for the following season, they tend to get done. Perhaps some of those added opportunities will come as a result of less involvement from Humphries. Tampa Bay's personnel suggests it should be using "12" personnel (one back, two tight ends and two receivers) as its base formation, while Godwin is already starting to force his way onto the field. It be a surprise if Godwin's target share wasn't closer to 12 or 13 percent this year. As long as Jameis Winston remains on the roster, Brate will probably be a pretty solid bet for a 10 percent target share and a handful of touchdowns. With that said, Howard is a candidate to double his target share in 2018. He simply brings too much big-play ability to the offense.

Washington
HC Jay Gruden

Gruden called plays for the first time in three years in 2017 and exhibited many of the same tendencies he had in two of his most recent stints as an offensive coordinator. Prior to the Redskins' backfield and offensive line completely falling to pieces at the end of the season, the lead back (Kelly and then Perine) combined for nearly 60 percent of the carry share, similar to Morris in 2014 and BenJarvus Green-Ellis in 2012. This obviously bodes well for Derrius Guice if he is able to earn the starting job in training camp as most expect. A better receiver than Morris or Green-Ellis, the LSU product will have the benefit of being an early-down banger for a coach who likes to pound the rock with one back and one of the better offensive lines in the league, assuming the front five can stay healthy this time around. Thompson would have likely challenged Bernard's carry share in the offense (circa 2013) had he been able to stay healthy all season. As it was, Thompson was on pace for a 16 percent target share. While there isn't much reason for him to be nearly as involved in the offense this year following the addition of Guice along with what should be an improved defense, a 25 percent carry share and 12 percent target share should probably be his floor.

With the exception of 2013 when Green commanded a hefty 30.8 percent target share and Sanu and Jones were essentially tag-teaming the No. 2 role, Gruden's offense has been very consistent in terms of getting at least five players over a 10 percent share. There are no Green-like superstars here, although Crowder doesn't get near enough credit for being a very good receiver. His target share has grown about 2.5 percent in each of his three seasons, although 2018 figures to be the year that stops given the quality of his fellow pass-catchers. From a passing game perspective, Gruden may want his team to mirror that of the 2016 squad led by then-OC Sean McVay, who led an offense that had four pass-catchers record at least a 15 percent target share (and two others reach at least 10 percent). Doctson and Paul Richardson are not in the class of Garçon and Jackson from that offense, but a 15 percent target share for both sounds about right. Reed would be a lock for his 15 percent from the same season if he could ever be counted upon to play at least 12 games, but there's plenty of evidence to suggest he's unlikely to do that, which makes Davis a great stash for all owners (and not just those trying to handcuff Reed).