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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 150 Big Board, FFPC High-Stakes League
Preseason Matchup Analysis
8/16/18

TFC | FPPC

Just like in every other fantasy football league, each week is important. Unlike most leagues, there is a $250,000 grand prize waiting for the lucky owner who is able to mix regular-season success with postseason dominance with the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). That means as important as matchups are in the first 11 weeks (two-week, four-team playoffs start in Week 12), they are exponentially more important in the run during the Championship Round (Weeks 14-16).

The point to be made here is December is critical not only for collecting the $1,500 owners get for winning their league, but also to make sure they stack enough high-scoring weeks on top of one another over the remainder of the season in order to keep themselves in the running for the big prize. In short, it is advantageous for owners to line up as many late favorable matchups as possible for their best players. As such, I will put a heavier emphasis on late-season matchups in this format than I do on my other Big Boards. The uniqueness of the title run in the high-stakes leagues I cover every August (TFC, FFPC) makes it necessary to create Big Boards solely for them.

Unlike the first three Big Boards, I will move a player up or down the board a bit within his SSI tier in an effort to account for the unique playoff structure. I am willing to admit my shortcomings - one of which being I am not so sophisticated to believe I can create an algorithm that includes the potential impact of a player's final five games without corrupting the integrity of my overall rankings.

There is one major scoring difference from the TFC Big Board published earlier this week: the FFPC uses tight end-premium scoring, which means tight ends receive 1.5 points for every catch as opposed to the standard one point per reception every other position gets.

Another nuance is one FFPC veterans are already quite familiar with: some owners are going to have key players unavailable for the first week of their playoffs since the FFPC postseason begins in Week 12. As a result, I (and they) have to account for an important absence in an important week. Those players' names will be highlighted in red below.

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the SSI concept as well as the color-coding system before we start:

SSI (Success Score Index) - A single number that reflects a score based on meticulously grading and assigning certain weights to several attributes that I feel are critical to fantasy success at a position. It is the number that allows me to compare apples to oranges across the positions.

Red – For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow – For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green – For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: This week, I will release my first Big Boards for The Fantasy Championship (TFC) and FFPC Big Boards. In the final set of Big Boards over the following two weeks, I will rank 200 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the FFPC format:

 FFPC Big Board - Top 150
Rank Pos Player Tm Age SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 RB Ezekiel Elliott DAL 23 1174.8
2 RB David Johnson ARI 26 1169.0
3 RB Todd Gurley LAR 24 1218.3
4 RB Leonard Fournette JAC 23 1163.1
5 RB Melvin Gordon LAC 25 1160.5
6 RB Saquon Barkley NYG 21 1149.1
7 WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 25 1135.8
8 WR Antonio Brown PIT 30 1131.6
9 RB Kareem Hunt KC 23 1136.6
10 RB Le'Veon Bell PIT 26 1126.7
11 WR DeAndre Hopkins HOU 26 1119.0
12 TE Rob Gronkowski NE 29 1109.5
13 RB Dalvin Cook MIN 23 1081.8
14 RB Alvin Kamara NO 23 1062.2
15 TE Travis Kelce KC 28 1118.9
16 TE Zach Ertz PHI 27 1041.8
17 WR Davante Adams GB 25 1037.8
18 WR Michael Thomas NO 25 1035.8
19 WR Keenan Allen LAC 26 1033.6
20 RB Christian McCaffrey CAR 22 1031.7
21 WR Julio Jones ATL 29 1029.8
22 WR A.J. Green CIN 30 1022.4
23 RB Joe Mixon CIN 22 1019.3
24 WR Mike Evans TB 24 1014.5
25 RB Jordan Howard CHI 23 1008.6
26 RB Jerick McKinnon SF 26 1006.8
27 RB Devonta Freeman ATL 26 1003.9
28 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 34 1003.5
29 RB Alex Collins BAL 23 1002.5
30 WR T.Y. Hilton IND 28 976.5
31 RB Derrick Henry TEN 24 969.4
32 RB LeSean McCoy BUF 30 967.8
33 TE Delanie Walker TEN 34 967.6
34 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN 28 964.7
35 WR Stefon Diggs MIN 24 963.3
36 WR Adam Thielen MIN 27 961.0
37 TE Greg Olsen CAR 33 951.0
38 WR Demaryius Thomas DEN 30 949.0
39 WR Doug Baldwin SEA 29 947.4
40 TE Jimmy Graham GB 31 940.1
41 WR Allen Robinson CHI 24 929.3
42 WR Amari Cooper OAK 24 919.0
43 WR Jarvis Landry CLE 25 915.4
44 TE Trey Burton CHI 26 906.6
45 TE Evan Engram NYG 23 909.4
46 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 34 899.9
47 RB Jay Ajayi PHI 25 899.1
48 RB Lamar Miller HOU 27 895.6
49 RB Isaiah Crowell NYJ 25 894.9
50 TE Jack Doyle IND 28 894.1
51 WR Emmanuel Sanders DEN 31 892.0
52 RB Dion Lewis TEN 27 889.5
53 RB Kenyan Drake MIA 24 886.5
54 TE David Njoku CLE 22 876.1
55 WR Golden Tate DET 30 867.9
56 RB Tarik Cohen CHI 23 867.2
57 RB Royce Freeman DEN 22 863.9
58 RB Rex Burkhead NE 28 860.8
59 WR Tyreek Hill KC 24 860.5
60 WR Marvin Jones DET 28 855.5
61 RB Tevin Coleman ATL 25 854.2
62 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 21 852.5
63 WR Jamison Crowder WAS 25 850.6
64 WR Sammy Watkins KC 25 850.3
65 WR Corey Davis TEN 23 848.0
66 TE Mike Gesicki MIA 22 860.7
67 TE Ricky Seals-Jones ARI 23 849.9
68 QB Carson Wentz PHI 25 847.6
69 RB Marshawn Lynch OAK 32 846.4
70 WR Chris Hogan NE 29 838.3
71 WR Julian Edelman NE 32 837.0
72 TE Jordan Reed WAS 28 877.4
73 TE George Kittle SF 24 844.9
74 RB Ronald Jones TB 21 843.9
75 RB Mark Ingram NO 28 836.5
76 RB Kerryon Johnson DET 21 834.8
77 QB Deshaun Watson HOU 22 842.1
78 RB Chris Thompson WAS 27 841.3
79 QB Tom Brady NE 41 839.4
80 RB Chris Carson SEA 23 832.6
81 QB Kirk Cousins MIN 29 828.3
82 WR Robby Anderson NYJ 25 827.9
83 QB Cam Newton CAR 29 826.2
84 QB Drew Brees NO 39 824.0
85 QB Russell Wilson SEA 29 819.7
86 TE O.J. Howard TB 23 836.4
87 RB Duke Johnson CLE 24 816.9
88 WR Robert Woods LAR 26 814.3
89 RB Sony Michel NE 23 813.6
90 RB Ty Montgomery GB 25 811.8
91 WR Cooper Kupp LAR 25 811.6
92 QB Andrew Luck IND 28 811.2
93 TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins JAC 25 810.7
94 QB Philip Rivers LAC 36 808.5
95 WR Michael Crabtree BAL 30 807.5
96 TE Eric Ebron IND 25 807.3
97 WR Alshon Jeffery PHI 28 805.8
98 RB Matt Breida SF 23 804.0
99 WR Randall Cobb GB 27 795.8
100 WR Josh Gordon CLE 27 795.4
101 WR Marquise Goodwin SF 27 793.0
102 RB Marlon Mack IND 22 792.9
103 QB Marcus Mariota TEN 24 791.7
104 WR Kenny Stills MIA 26 786.9
105 QB Matthew Stafford DET 30 786.5
106 WR Brandin Cooks LAR 24 785.5
107 TE Charles Clay BUF 29 785.4
108 WR Sterling Shepard NYG 25 784.3
109 QB Patrick Mahomes KC 22 782.2
110 RB Carlos Hyde CLE 27 781.7
111 WR Jordy Nelson OAK 33 781.3
112 TE Cameron Brate TB 27 781.0
113 RB Nick Chubb CLE 22 778.9
114 WR DeVante Parker MIA 25 777.3
115 QB Jared Goff LAR 23 774.2
116 WR Devin Funchess CAR 24 773.8
117 WR Cameron Meredith NO 25 770.3
118 WR Nelson Agholor PHI 25 768.5
119 QB Blake Bortles JAC 26 763.9
120 RB Peyton Barber TB 24 759.6
121 TE Vance McDonald PIT 28 776.6
122 TE Ben Watson NO 37 757.7
123 QB Matt Ryan ATL 33 757.2
124 WR Will Fuller HOU 24 757.0
125 WR Tyler Lockett SEA 25 741.9
126 QB Jimmy Garoppolo SF 26 756.1
127 RB Nyheim Hines IND 21 755.1
128 QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 36 754.9
129 RB Bilal Powell NYJ 29 754.9
130 RB Rashaad Penny SEA 22 754.4
131 RB Aaron Jones GB 23 753.4
132 TE Tyler Eifert CIN 27 748.3
133 RB Frank Gore MIA 35 752.6
134 RB Jamaal Williams GB 23 738.0
135 QB Dak Prescott DAL 25 745.1
136 RB Devontae Booker DEN 26 740.9
137 RB Austin Ekeler LAC 23 740.1
138 QB Alex Smith WAS 34 738.3
139 RB Theo Riddick DET 27 734.6
140 WR John Brown BAL 28 733.0
141 QB Andy Dalton CIN 30 733.0
142 RB Giovani Bernard CIN 26 732.8
143 RB James White NE 26 729.9
144 QB Derek Carr OAK 27 718.9
145 WR D.J. Moore CAR 21 717.8
146 WR Kelvin Benjamin BUF 27 710.5
147 WR Pierre Garcon SF 32 708.5
148 WR Kenny Golladay DET 28 707.0
149 WR Anthony Miller CHI 23 706.3
150 WR Chris Godwin TB 22 706.3

TFC Big Board




Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.