Le'Veon Bell is a fantasy force but there
are reasons to be concerned about his 2018 production.
Let me be clear:
if I have the good fortune of picking inside the top four in a handful
of drafts, I will take Le'Veon
Bell at least once because I want to have at least one share
of all the top backs if at possible. But I have laid out the case
against him multiple times over the last two months and I don't
imagine my opinion is going to change. His supporters will claim
Bell keeps himself in phenomenal shape and logged 400-plus touches
in 15 games last year despite missing the entire preseason, so he
can do it again this year. Some may even mention he should be entering
the prime of his career at age 26 and doesn't have the wear-and-tear
of other feature backs his age since he has missed 18 regular-season
games over the first five years of his career due to suspension
or injury.
Now the case against Bell: I
have cited the following multiple times at FFToday and in other
publications, but I'll expand a bit on it here. Since 2000, there
have been 16 instances (Bell will make it 17) in which a back saw
400-plus touches one year and played the next. Fifteen of the
16 failed to match or exceed what they did the previous year and
the average drop-off was 110 touches, 796 total yards and 7.4 touchdowns!
For those that care about such things, those backs averaged 0.7
yards per carry less than the previous year. Think about that for
a second. If Bell experiences a similar decline, he will finish
with 296 touches, 1,152 total yards and four TDs. (That is comparable
to what C.J. Anderson did last year as the overall RB18.) Let's
say he beats the odds and regresses only half as much as the average:
351 touches, 1,548 total yards and seven scores - almost the equivalent
of what LeSean McCoy did on his way to an RB7 finish in 2017. Worthy
of a first-round pick in fantasy? Sure. No. 1 overall? No.
Of course, there's more. While he did average 4.5 yards per attempt
in December, he was at 3.9 YPC on 251 carries through the end of
November, leading to his most inefficient season (4.0 YPC) since
he was a rookie in 2013 (3.5). His longest run on 321 attempts was
27 yards. The only play-caller he's ever known in Pittsburgh (Todd
Haley) now in Cleveland, leaving first-time NFL offensive coordinator
Randy Fichtner to call the shots. Bell is skipping training camp
and the preseason for the second straight season. His team has declined
to give him a long-term extension two times in as many years. Owners
can choose to see the positive in some of the negatives I have pointed
out, but I also have him down for eight yellow matchups as well
- many of which would be red if not for his unique talents and heavy
volume. I think I have briefly touched on enough reasons for concern
to give owners some pause and make the case for Bell being the riskiest
pick in the first round this summer.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
