Offseason reports can often be the equivalent of having a candy
bar or bag of chips 30 minutes before a meal. We know they aren't
good for us, but we can't help ourselves. Sometimes, however, beat
writers can unearth a valuable nugget or spot a trend during the
spring that proves to be prophetic. Given the wealth of information
at our disposal nowadays, we have to sift through a lot of the former
in order to get to the latter.
Each year, I attempt to canvas the NFL landscape once offseason
workouts have concluded, in hopes I can make an observation or
two of my own that helps nudge readers in the right direction.
As I have done since I started doing "Early Observations"
in 2009, I’m going to try to provide a respectable opinion
on how the offseason buzz from all 32 teams translates to fantasy
owners over the next two weeks. This week, we’ll take a
look at what is buzzworthy in the AFC: Note: All ADPs are for 12-team
PPR leagues courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator
Baltimore
The Ravens made it known earlier this offseason adding a "game-breaking
running back" was a priority. Apparently, HC John Harbaugh
was referring to 32-year-old Danny Woodhead, who was the team's
only notable offseason addition to the position. Harbaugh also
made it clear he believes Kenneth Dixon can be "a
top back in this league,", although it is unclear if
he had any idea his second-year runner was on the verge of receiving
a four-game PED suspension when he made the comment at the NFL
Combine. While Woodhead has
his admirers on the team (Harbaugh and QB Joe Flacco among
them), it only makes sense Terrance West is winning the offseason
so far. ESPN's Jamison Hensley suggested West is the unquestioned
starter at the moment, while Harbaugh applauded the Towson
product's work ethic this spring and noted he has "done really
well" and "looked
good at practice".
Dennis Pitta's third major - and likely career-ending - hip injury
earlier this month puts an exclamation point behind the question
mark that the tight end position already was in Baltimore. Maxx
Williams underwent a knee surgery "no
other football player has had" this offseason, according
to Harbaugh, while 36-year-old Ben Watson is working his way back
from an Achilles' injury. Heck, Crockett Gillmore reportedly dealt
with a "broken
back" in addition to a number of other ailments in 2016.
Almost by default, Nick Boyle could go from Harbaugh's doghouse
('If he continues to double down on dumb, he's going to be out,"
the coach said last winter) due to a PED suspension to a Week
1 starter in 2017 almost by default given the sorry state of affairs
at the position. Hensley believes Boyle is "a
sleeper" to replace Pitta as the team's starting tight
end.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: The
addition of senior offensive assistant Greg Roman should be a
much-needed boost for the running game, but West was really the
definition of average last season - he averaged four yards per
carry and finished with more attempts stopped behind the line
of scrimmage (21) than runs of 10 or more yards (19). Only time
will tell, but Dixon outperformed West on a regular basis once
he returned from injury last year. Woodhead was often a red zone
fixture as well as the main passing-down back in San Diego and
should keep both roles in Baltimore, so it's hard to get overly
excited about West's fantasy ceiling. He is going to be hard-pressed
to be much more than a RB4 and a candidate to lose early-down
touches to Dixon if he doesn't light it up in September.
Unlike Pitta, Boyle doesn't have the complete trust of Flacco.
More likely than Boyle becoming the next Pitta is Jeremy Maclin
and some combination of Dixon and Woodhead absorbing the looks
once earmarked for Flacco's favorite underneath target. In fact,
it should come as no surprise if Maclin, who is expected to be
the team's primary slot receiver, actually does the most work
in regards to filling the void left behind by Pitta. Darren Waller
remains a project but could ultimately overtake Boyle at any moment
given the fact he is certainly more capable of producing a big
play and probably is a better bet to win the job. Ideally, Watson
can squeeze one more season - like the one he produced for the
New Orleans Saints in 2015 - out of his aging body in order to
give Williams a chance to completely recover. While opportunity
is always a major consideration for fantasy owners when identifying
sleepers at any position - and it certainly appears as if Boyle
has it - the Ravens have enough other players who can pick up
the slack in the short passing game. As such, it'd be stunning
if Boyle is worth owning in fantasy at any point this season.
A full 16-game season could put Watkins
in the high-end WR1 category alongside Evans and OBJ.
Buffalo
Sammy Watkins returned
to practice during the first full week of June before graduating
to team drills less than a week later. By June 14, he reportedly
took most
of the first-team reps. As even the most casual NFL fans know,
regular offseason injury reports (more negative than positive)
have been all too common over Watkins' first three pro seasons.
Injuries - mostly to his foot - have cost him 11 of 32 games over
the last two years and were a major reason why the new Buffalo
regime - led at the time by new HC Sean McDermott - opted not
to use the fifth-year team option on the former No. 4 overall
pick. Backup QB Cardale Jones has been impressed with what he's
seen from Watkins, saying the wideout looked "great".
McDermott told the Toronto Sun his primary goal is take a "day-to-day
approach and just be smart" with Watkins' continued recovery.
Second-round rookie Zay Jones took a page out of Watkins' book
and suffered an injury (knee sprain) early in OTAs, so whatever
advantage he was going to get as a result of Watkins' early absence
was pretty much eliminated. He did return to practice at roughly
the same time as Watkins did, however, and is the heavy favorite
to replace Robert Woods. QB Tyrod Taylor called the East Carolina
product "a
great player" and someone he "excited to work with."
Watkins and Jones' absences obviously created opportunities for
other
receivers to shine - something it appears Andre Holmes did
- as the ex-Raider consistently worked with the first-team offense
at OTAs and minicamp.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Those with short memories
have probably forgotten Watkins was chosen ahead of Mike Evans
and Odell Beckham Jr. in the 2014 draft, so this is not a player
lacking for talent. He has certainly enjoyed dominant stretches
when he's been healthy despite Buffalo's run-centric offense and
sometimes nebulous quarterback situation. The only thing keeping
Watkins from joining that group is his body - ESPN offered a pretty
good rundown last year of his injuries up to May 2016 since
becoming a pro - so a full 16-game season from him could thrust
him into that stratosphere, especially considering new OC Rick
Dennison figures to operate a more receiver-friendly offense than
predecessor Greg Roman. Watkins has WR1 upside to be sure, but
fantasy owners selecting him around his current mid-fourth round
ADP need to understand the level of risk tolerance it will take
in order to see that kind of investment pay off.
Given Watkins' long injury history, it is plausible - if not
somewhat highly probable - Jones and Holmes start a handful of
games together in 2017. A mid-June endorsement from the likely
starting quarterback based on some college games he watched over
the last few years isn't going to move the needle - nor should
it - but the NCAA's all-time leader in receptions has perhaps
the best hands of any receiver from the 2017 draft and the added
advantage of working for the same position coach (Phil McGeoghan)
who helped him set a FBS record with 158 catches in a season.
Given the relative lack of obstacles in his way to serve as at
least the Bills' top receiver in four or five games, Jones is
a high-end WR4 with fairly significant upside. The same cannot
be said about Holmes, who regularly impresses in the summer before
coaches always seem to find a reason to keep him on the sideline
in the fall.
Cincinnati
Second-rounder Joe Mixon showed up to rookie camp overweight,
checking in at 238 pounds, and was called
out by HC Marvin Lewis. It's about the only misstep the rookie
has made so far. He quickly
lost 10 pounds and told ESPN's Katherine Terrell he intends
to spend "at
least two weeks" training with Adrian Peterson in Houston
this summer. While he was shedding weight, he also drew praise
from QB Andy Dalton for his "versatility".
Terrell's sources also led her to believe Mixon will likely get
"a
heavy dose" of playing time right away, possibly even
as a kick returner. The Oklahoma product's stock got another boost
in a couple of weeks ago when longtime Bengals.com writer Geoff
Hobson hinted Giovani Bernard could be held out of the "first
couple of regular-season games" as he recovers from a
Week 11 ACL tear. Mixon could help Cincinnati make that decision
easier by looking like "a beast" - something
he has done so far this offseason.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: With No. 9 overall pick WR John Ross
missing out on offseason work to complete his recovery from shoulder
surgery, Mixon is getting the bulk of the pub in the Queen City
and running with it. There has been little doubt since he was
drafted that he has RB1 upside and is ticketed for a fairly large
role as a rookie, but questions regarding such things as Bernard's
rehab and the uncertain nature of the Bengals' young offensive
line cast some doubt on just how quickly it could happen. While
only time will tell if the line is up to the challenge, Bernard
may not have much of a role waiting for him when he is able to
return, as Mixon is certainly as capable in the passing game -
if not more so - and a superior runner. Jeremy Hill looms as a
threat to steal goal-line touches from the rookie and may be able
to forge a split backfield to start the season, but it would seem
the rookie will carry the mail in this backfield before long.
Mixon is unlikely to be a true bell-cow in 2017 since Hill should
have a firm grip on short-yardage work, but a top-10 finish at
his position is not out of the question for the rookie if Cincinnati
decides he is ready for 250-plus carries.
Cleveland
Isaiah Crowell averaged a gaudy 4.8 YPC, finished with 952 rushing
yards and tallied 40 receptions - one of only four running backs
(LeSean McCoy, Mark Ingram and Le'Veon Bell were the others) to
hit those benchmarks last year. (He was also the only player among
the top 20 rushers with fewer than 205 attempts.) Things should
only get easier for him following Cleveland's offseason additions
of C J.C. Tretter and OG Kevin Zeitler, but apparently 2016 was
just the tip of the iceberg. HC Hue Jackson is committed
to running the ball more this year after admittedly beating
himself up over not using Crowell enough last year and RB coach
Kirby Wilson told the Akron Beacon-Journal believes the 24-year-old
has only "scratched
the surface" and is "not even in his prime yet."
First-rounder David Njoku will receive plenty of attention this
summer and rightfully so, especially after the Browns released
Gary Barnidge the day after Njoku was taken in the draft. He figures
to be the long-term answer at the position, but 2017 could be
a different story considering the soon-to-be 21-year-old rookie
is more pure athlete than skilled tight end at this point. After
Tampa Bay's Cameron Brate (Harvard) set the bar pretty high last
year for Ivy League tight ends, Cleveland would be thrilled if
its own Ivy Leaguer - second-year TE Seth DeValve (Princeton)
- can have the same kind of impact. Jackson called DeValve "an
emerging player" near the end of offseason workouts,
building upon an under-the-radar finish to his rookie season once
he settled in a bit at his new position (he played a slot receiver
and wingback in college) and got past a nagging hamstring injury
that dogged him throughout training camp. Njoku himself praised
DeValve, calling him "a beast", while the Akron Beacon
Journal's Nate Ulrich reports the Browns believe he
could be their breakout playmaker in 2017.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: While his consistency was lacking
(not a surprise given how the Browns went through six quarterbacks
last season), Crowell topped the century mark four times despite
often being a victim of game flow and Jackson's uncharacteristic
tendency to forget about him from time to time. The defense may
take a bit of time to gel with all the new talent coming in, but
any improvement from that side of the ball plus the improved offensive
line and a more consistent workload should make Crowell one of
the more enticing RB2 options available. Although his current
early-to-mid third-round ADP appears to be a bit high at first
glance, he's probably a much better bet to play up to that level
in 2017 than someone like Leonard Fournette, who may or may not
see consistent work as a receiver as a rookie and will run behind
a much less talented front five.
Njoku is a player owners might be drooling over in about two
to three years, but even for someone as talented as he is, it
may be too much to ask him to overcome his age, quarterback situation
and relative inexperience at his position. In other words, expect
Cleveland to pick and choose his spots as a rookie. As a result,
DeValve may be the biggest winner in 2017 if the Browns follow
through on their plan to run more two-tight sets. It remains to
be seen if he is able to do enough in that role to become that
fantasy-viable, but he is probably the best bet of the bunch (Njoku
and blocking TE Randall Telfer included) to find his way into
lineups this fall. TE2 status is possible, but it will probably
be his ceiling regardless of whether Brock Osweiler, Cody Kessler
or rookie DeShone Kizer is starting at quarterback.
Denver
For a team a lot of folks seem to be predicting for a return
to double-digit wins in 2017, the Broncos sure have a lot of questions
at some key fantasy offensive positions. Denver enters Year 2
of the Trevor Siemian vs. Paxton Lynch debate, with the Mile High
City seemingly split on what the outcome should be. Mike
Klis of 9 News Denver appears to be solidly in Siemian's corner,
calling Lynch "a
work in progress" while acknowledging the quarterback
battle is more about how the second-year signal-caller develops
than anything else. The Denver Post's Mark Kiszla is going the
other way, suggesting Lynch is the quarterback "unafraid
to throw deep" and the clear choice if Denver wants to "revive
the swagger" its offense, while Siemian is "the
fail-safe device". Kiszla took his mid-June prediction one
step further, however, suggesting the job belongs to Lynch and
the only question is whether or not he's ready to take it. For
what it is worth, Klis acknowledged shortly before press time
Lynch "made
his move" during the final two weeks of OTAs.
As is the case with almost any aging great running back, Jamaal
Charles believes he can still "be
the man". The Broncos apparently envision more "spot
duty" if his knees hold up to the rigors of training camp,
although ESPN's Jeff Legwold suggests the team is "open to
any and all ideas" to spark a running game that finished
28th in the league in rushing and got one 100-yard rushing game
from any of its running backs. While Charles is expected to be
ready for training camp, new HC Vance Joseph has already stated
Denver plans on using a committee backfield. C.J. Anderson is
the leader in the clubhouse by all accounts, but Joseph is promising
an "open
competition".
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Lynch is almost certainly the future
in Denver, but will he be the present as well? Redraft owners
would probably just as soon Siemian is named the starter since
Lynch probably isn't going to be trusted enough in his first year
as a starter to get both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders
over 1,000 yards yet again. However, new OC Mike McCoy proved
during his first tour of duty with Denver from 2010-12 that he
can get the most out of quarterback, helping Kyle Orton achieve
career highs in a number of passing categories in 2009 and adjusting
his offense to fit the skills of Tim Tebow the next two seasons.
For all of his shortcomings as a head coach in San Diego, McCoy
has a proven track record of getting the most out of offenses
and quarterbacks. Don't be surprised to see Lynch get the nod
near the end of the preseason and settle into an inconsistent,
albeit high-upside QB2.
The Chargers utilized a committee backfield for most of McCoy's
four-year tenure until Branden Oliver's torn Achilles' last preseason
and Danny Woodhead's Week 2 ACL tear essentially forced San Diego
to go all-in on Melvin Gordon. There is no Gordon-like talent
in Denver, so we can probably take Joseph at his word when he
throws around phrases like "open competition" and "committee
backfield." Anderson has yet to log more than 179 carries
(or 213 touches) in any of his four seasons, and it seems like
a good bet he won't top those marks in 2017, so he is probably
no better than a fantasy RB3. Charles' recent injury history makes
him an incredibly risky fantasy option and probably a low-upside
one at that, considering Denver will likely monitor his touches.
Devontae Booker struggled in former HC Gary Kubiak's zone-running
scheme and could benefit from McCoy's desire to run more power-blocking
concepts. Although he appears to be firmly entrenched as a third-stringer
at the moment, the second-year back may ultimately end up being
the most valuable in fantasy by season's end if Anderson and Charles
fail to hold up yet again.
Houston
HC Bill O'Brien readily acknowledges he overused RB Lamar Miller
early last season and believes the heavy workload in September
led to the ex-Dolphin playing at far
less than 100 percent over the second half of the season.
The Texans did what they could do right that wrong by using a
third-round selection on Texas RB D'Onta Foreman - a player O'Brien
sees as someone who will "spell
Lamar at times when Lamar needs that" and "a productive
tackle-to-tackle first- and second-down runner." After fighting
through shoulder, ankle and rib injuries in his first season with
Houston, Miller has regained
his health and is "very
comfortable" heading into Year 2 as O'Brien takes more
of a hands-on approach of the offense; O'Brien will serve as his
own offensive coordinator in 2017 after parting ways with predecessor
George Godsey in the offseason.
The addition of assistant WR coach Wes Welker hasn't received
a ton of publicity, but perhaps
it should. Braxton Miller was selected in the third round
of the 2016 draft in hopes he would eventually be a dynamic slot
receiver in the mold of … you guessed it … Welker.
While he didn't exactly set the world on fire with 15 catches
for 99 yards in 10 games before landing on injured reserve, it
wasn't as if he was given much of a chance to succeed as a rookie
in retrospect. Osweiler's play combined with the steep learning
curve he faced from making the conversion from college quarterback
to pro receiver after getting only one year of training as a wideout
at Ohio State made an immediate impact virtually impossible. Now,
he has one of the best to ever do his job teaching him how to
do it, not to mention a position coach (John Perry) who believes
he
has the natural gifts to do it.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Owners
like it when a high-upside running back is able to enjoy a low-profile
offseason. Even better when the team brings in "competition",
thus lowering his fantasy stock enough so they can snag a potential
RB1 at a RB2 price. Lamar Miller's ADP is down about a full round
from last year when he disappointingly rushed for 1,073
yards in 14 games despite getting no help from the passing game,
running behind a below-average offensive line and playing hurt.
Each of those areas have been upgraded/resolved since the end
of last season, meaning his odds of living up to a first-round
pick in fantasy drafts are significantly higher than they were
in 2016. Foreman may cause occasional frustration by vulturing
a score or breaking off a long run in the same way Alfred Blue
has in recent years, but Foreman wasn't drafted with the hope
he would steal Miller's job, but rather help him stay fresher
in September over so he could dominate in November and December.
Welker's presence alone isn't going to make Braxton Miller a
must-have fantasy property this year, but it should speed up his
clock. DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller are each capable of stretching
the defense - something Savage or Watson should be able to take
advantage of more than Osweiler did. Miller likely has one more
season of being a part-time player ahead of him, but the raw talent
is great enough that he could overtake Fuller as the second-best
option in the passing game by 2018.
Indianapolis
Andrew Luck was given a six-month timetable following his mid-January
shoulder surgery. Since then, the only halfway positive report
on his recovery came from team owner Jim Irsay, who told the crowd
about 2,000 season-ticket holders during the team's first Town
Hall event in early June that his quarterback is "healing
tremendously." (Pause for eye-roll.) Outside of that,
the Colts have been consistent about saying Luck may not be ready
for the start of training camp. HC Chuck Pagano suggested “the
next step is getting to the point where (Luck) can throw,"
which implies he hasn't done that at all since the surgery. Luck
was noncommittal when asked about being ready for the start
of training camp a couple of weeks ago, although he has admitted
to "feeling great" and that "rehab is going well."
If Luck's situation is concerning, then at least the Colts can
depend on T.Y. Hilton and a deep wide receiver corps … right?
Not so fast, as Hilton and Philip Dorsett missed
minicamp with hamstring strains. Neither injury was considered
serious, but the last thing Indianapolis needs is for its top
receiver to join Luck on the sideline. Meanwhile, Dorsett is in
danger of falling behind free-agent addition Kamar Aiken and second-year
undrafted free-agent Chester Rogers. Aiken was told by new GM
Chris Ballard there would be an "open
competition in the receiving room", while Rogers was
tabbed by The Herald Bulletin's George Brimmer as an offseason
standout who "seems to have a knack for being exactly
where he's supposed to be when he's supposed to be there."
Colts.com writer Kevin Bowen believes Rogers has "a
real shot" to be the primary backup to Hilton and Moncrief.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: The Colts have plenty of reasons
to be pumped about the 2017 season, but those hopes and dreams
all start with a healthy Luck (and not Scott Tolzien) under center
in Week 1. For reasons that are difficult to understand in today's
NFL world where every injury to a key player is endlessly dissected,
this rehab has flown a bit under the radar. If Luck truly has
not thrown a ball in nearly six months, owners shouldn't pretend
as though his shoulder will be just fine to withstand the rigors
of an NFL season after a couple of weeks of tossing around the
'ole pigskin right before camp. It is quite possible owners won't
get to see Luck before the third preseason game and fairly likely
he starts the season out slow if he is unable to begin a throwing
program in the next week or so. Luck is capable of being the overall
fantasy QB1 anytime he is healthy, but this may not be the year
to bet on it happening.
As long as Luck is good to go at some point and Hilton's current
hamstring problems become a non-issue with some rest, the latter
should be ready to rock as a top-10 receiver again in 2017. After
that, all bets are off. Donte Moncrief averaged a woeful 2.5 yards
after the catch last season and saw his fantasy value propped
up by an elite TD rate, averaging a score every 4.5 catches in
the nine games in which he played. He seems like a pretty safe
bet to keep his starting job, but Aiken should not be discounted
as a potential threat. The ex-Raven offers similar size and could
very well siphon some of the six touchdown catches Moncrief had
inside of the 10-yard-line last season. Aiken is someone to keep
on watch lists as a back-end-of-the-roster fantasy option with
significant upside if Moncrief struggles to stay healthy again
this year. Rogers may not make much of a fantasy impact, but he
may end up eventually pushing Dorsett off the roster.
Fantasy QB2? After three seasons, Blake
Bortles is still completing under 60 percent of his passes.
Jacksonville
Among the many phrases owners do not want to hear regarding fantasy
quarterbacks is "fewer pass attempts." Blake Bortles
finished third in the league with 625 attempts last season - a
number GM Dave Caldwell has guaranteed
his fourth-year signal-caller will not reach in 2017. While
that may have been fairly obvious given the Jaguars' selection
of RB Leonard Fournette with the fourth overall pick in April's
draft, it does suggest Jacksonville has no desire to see Bortles
match his interception total from last year (a career-low 16)
or the number of games in which he attempted at least 40 passes
(six). To that end, new HC Doug Marrone deadpanned "zero"
when asked what the ideal number of attempts for Bortles each
game would be this season. New executive vice president Tom Coughlin
did sign off on Bortles' improved mechanics, saying his the
former No. 3 overall pick "pretty much" corrected them
thanks in large part to his offseason work with noted quarterback
"guru" Tom House, who will resume working with Bortles
again this summer.
For the most part, Fournette is pretty much a "can't miss"
prospect. One way the Jaguars could screw this up is by doing
what the Minnesota Vikings tried to do with Adrian Peterson toward
the end of his time there: ask him to run from a shotgun formation
consistently. If Nathaniel Hackett doesn’t adjust his playbook
to Fournette's strengths, it appears there is a decent chance
the rookie will
be asked to run out of shotgun more often than he ever did
at LSU. On the plus side, Marrone
was reportedly pleased with how well the new centerpiece of
his offense was able to catch the ball during OTAs - a common
criticism of this class' most physical runner leading up to the
draft.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Bortles was mostly a disaster in
the real game last year. However, sheer volume - usually the result
of how quickly the Jaguars fell behind in a number of games -
helped him finish among the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks in 2016.
It's a near certainty he won't have that luxury again this year,
and Marrone has already told him if he continues to turn the ball
the rate he has through three seasons, he won't be the starter
anymore. Bortles has the supporting cast to do more with less,
but he has yet to prove he can be an efficient quarterback. As
such, he's probably best viewed as a low-end QB2 this season.
About the only question in Jacksonville's backfield is whether
or not Marrone and Hackett are willing to put everything on Fournette's
plate right away. It seems unlikely, not because Fournette can't
handle it, but because T.J. Yeldon is supposedly strong in the
areas the rookie is supposedly not (such as blocking and catching
the ball out of the backfield). Fournette could flirt with RB1
numbers on occasion based on volume alone if Jacksonville's defense
plays up to its talent, but Yeldon could conceivably keep him
from living up to his mid-second round ADP if he is able to steal
roughly half of the work in the passing game. That's why it is
vital for Fournette to be named the every-down back prior to the
start of the season if he is going to live up to his current price.
Mark my words: as much as I like him as a player, the rookie is
going to need to get all the work he can in order to warrant a
top-20 fantasy draft pick.
Kansas
City
The release of Jeremy Maclin figures to remain a talking point
well into the 2017 season, if only because it creates such a ripple
effect for the rest of the Chiefs' offense. First and foremost,
2016 rookie sensation Tyreek Hill will get first
dibs at taking over Maclin's "Z" role in the offense
and become a full-time player after playing roughly 40 percent
of the snaps last season. While that obviously is a boon to his
stock, it leaves Albert Wilson as the senior member of the position
group at 24 years old. The move also pretty much locks in Chris
Conley as a starter considering Maclin and Hill were considered
the favorites to see the most playing time. (It is also worth
mentioning Conley
received some reps at "Z" during OTAs.) However,
HC Andy Reid appears to be high on second-year pro Demarcus Robinson
- taken 39 spots ahead of Hill in last year's draft - praising
the former fourth-rounder for his physicality, versatility
(i.e. the routes he can run) and ability after the catch.
Prior to the Maclin bombshell, the top storyline in Kansas City
was how quickly Kareem Hunt could overtake Spencer Ware. The early
returns suggest Ware will keep the job - at
least initially - although the rookie is expected to be a
thorn in his side at the very least and has a
great shot at being the most productive Chiefs back when all
is said and done. To that end, Hunt has already impressed the
Kansas City brass with the same short-area burst and balance that
made him such a handful to defend in the Mid-American Conference
for Toledo. The Chiefs are also "throwing
everything" at their third-round pick - another clear
indication he should be a factor early on, even if he doesn't
start.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Hill's ADP is already in the mid-fourth
round since June 2 - the day Maclin was released - and he probably
isn't going to get any cheaper. Compelling cases can be made that
his ADP is too high AND too low, and that in and of itself is
a problem. Even for someone with his world-class speed and explosiveness,
it is always a gamble to count on a part-time gadget player one
year to become a true No. 1 receiver the next, especially when
he is only entering his second season. Then again, the running
game figures to be productive and Travis Kelce is already one
of the top two or three tight ends in the game, meaning Hill will
not need to carry the passing attack or the offense. At this point
of the summer, I'd rather have Martavis Bryant a full round later
or wait another three rounds for someone like Stefon Diggs. Hill
should be a WR2 with WR1 upside, but it is not a given that he'll
take the next step this year.
For as much hype as Hunt (9.02 ADP) is creating, it is stunning
he is getting drafted nearly five rounds after Ware (4.05). While
a complete reversal by the end of the summer is unlikely, the
rookie is too good not to earn at least a split of the workload
fairly quickly. Ware may keep goal-line duties and remain a starter
all season long, but Hunt better fits the profile of a traditional
Reid back and could easily live up to ESPN reporter Adam Teicher's
prediction that he will lead the team in rushing this season AND
pace Kansas City's running backs in receptions. Expect Hunt's
ADP to settle around the fifth- or sixth-round range by the time
fantasy drafts heat up in August; he's an absolute steal at his
current price. While it can be dangerous to buy into the hype
on certain players, the Chiefs are making it pretty clear they
expect immediate production from the No. 86 overall selection.
Reid likes Ware too much just to let him become a pure backup,
but he seems like a pretty obvious bust candidate if he continues
to go in the fourth round.
Los
Angeles Chargers
Almost as long as the Chargers were in San Diego, it seems Antonio
Gates was their tight end. (He already had two 80-catch seasons
under his belt before Philip Rivers became the starter!) Perhaps
with the move to LA, it is only appropriate this is the year Gates
relinquishes his long-standing hold on position the franchise
to Hunter Henry. The No. 35 overall pick last year, Henry scored
eight times as a rookie and is poised to push Gates into more
of a specialty role in 2017 in a
move the team has discussed since at least December. Gates
struggled with drops last season (he had six), but he still out-snapped
Henry 554-546 despite playing one fewer game (Henry played 15,
Gates 14). Henry is expected to see significantly more snaps than
his veteran counterpart this year, however.
Even as the Chargers were losing on a regular basis and losing
players left and right, it didn't stop Melvin Gordon from having
a breakthrough sophomore season. New HC Anthony Lynn believes
he can get even more out of the third-year back - perhaps
a lot more - twice saying publicly he thinks there is "another
level" to Gordon's upside. Lynn interestingly compared
Gordon to Eddie George about a month after accepting the head-coaching
job, then went on to say his new protégé shares
some similarities with Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson. “He’s
built similar to Chris Ivory. Chris Ivory is more powerful, but
Mel’s a powerful man, too. … He has quick enough feet
to elude. He doesn’t have the speed of a Chris Johnson,
but he’s an upright runner that can sidestep and elude.
He has good vision, good instincts." Unlike last year, however,
it appears the Chargers may be more prepared for another Gordon
injury, as Branden Oliver is back from an Achilles' injury and
has been impressive
in early workouts.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Henry is the future at tight end
in LA and he may also be the present, but Gates' presence alone
will most likely be enough to keep him from joining the top-tier
tight ends in fantasy, if only because the soon-to-be 38-year-old
will still have a role inside the red zone and on third down -
two key situations in which tight ends usually get their numbers.
With all of receiving weapons LA has on its roster now, it might
be too much to ask Henry to repeat his eight-score campaign, even
if he enjoys a fairly significant increase in receptions (36 in
2016) and yards (478). The Arkansas alum should be a solid DFS
play on a semi-regular basis given his ability to find the end
zone, but it appears as if he will be a stretch to count on him
as anything more than a low-end TE1.
Lynn may be all over the board on his Gordon comparisons, but
he has a strong track record of getting production from his running
backs, not the Gordon needed any more help in that regard. Gordon
is coming off the board late in first round in early drafts and
there is really no reason to believe he will not live up to that
billing. Los Angeles essentially remade three-fifths of its line
with new projected starters at LT (Russell Okung), LG (third-round
pick Dan Feeney) and RG (second-round pick Forrest Lamp). The
wealth of talent at receiver should only open up the field for
the running game as well. As such, Gordon is probably only of
the five or six backs in the league who could be in the running
to be the best fantasy player at his position this year. Regarding
Oliver, his return should not be ignored. Despite some positive
reports regarding Andre Williams, Oliver is the only back on the
roster who can do most of the same things Gordon can (albeit at
a lower level). He's an underrated handcuff for a back in Gordon
who has yet to make it through a 16-game season.
Miami
The concern about Jay Ajayi leading into the 2015 draft was whether
or not his knee would allow him to make it past his first contract.
The concern about him after this season may be whether or not
he has enough in the tank to continue. HC Adam Gase suggested
in late May that Ajayi could see as
many as 350 carries in 2017 - 90 more than last year - if
the third-year running back stays healthy and can play all 16
games. Gase told the Miami Herald in early March he also hopes
for more
passing-game involvement from him. To that end, OC Clyde Christensen
said his top back's receiving skills are "200
percent" better than last year and that Ajayi might be
the "most
improved" player on the team.
The offseason in the NFL is a beautiful thing. Kenny Stills broke
out last year and Jarvis Landry has yet to finish a season with
fewer than 84 receptions. So it is only natural that all the early
focus on the Dolphins' receiving corps spring has been on DeVante
Parker. Of course, it isn't without merit. Parker was considered
by some to be on the same level as Amari Cooper and Kevin White
in the 2015 draft, although injuries have hindered him nearly
as much as they have White. The Miami Herald reported in late
May "multiple sources" told them Parker "has
been so impressive this offseason" that the team is hopeful
he is ready to become a "dominant threat". Gase has
seen a "hungry" Parker, while Christensen believes "(Parker's)
routine and how fast he’s played (this spring) has been
really, really different from last year.”
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Every offseason, a handful of players
- usually those who broke out the year before - seem to attract
the most attention from the national media. Of that group, probably
less than half live up to their hype. If it wasn't clear based
on last year and his three 200-yard performances, Ajayi probably
isn't going to be one of "the disappointments." Despite
Gase's reputation as a passing-game guru, he has consistently
shown the flexibility to mold his offense around his best playmakers,
so when he talks about feeding Ajayi a lot, we can probably take
him at his word. Considering Ajayi didn't start until Week 5 -
he saw 18 carries through four weeks including his Week 1 suspension
- it's not unrealistic to believe he could push 350 attempts if
Miami is able to create enough favorable running situations to
allow it to happen. With that kind of workload as a runner and
even a slight increase in passing-game work (he had 27 catches
last year), he will easily live up to his early second-round ADP.
Basically from the time he was drafted, greatness has been expected
from Parker, but it appears he wasn't ready for it. (Since writing
his
draft profile three years ago, I have believed his upside
was similar to, but not quite to the level of, A.J. Green.) Whether
or not the Dolphins have enough footballs to keep Ajayi, Landry,
Stills and a potentially dominant Parker (who plays the Demaryius
Thomas role in Gase's offense) happy is another question, but
it should be noted the former first-round pick did manage to catch
56 passes last year in what was called a disappointing season
by most. Many on Miami's staff believe his injury history has
been a product of a lack of self-discipline (occasionally showing
up late to practice, skipping meals, not getting enough sleep,
etc.), but the Dolphins seem pretty convinced he has moved (or
is moving) past those issues. For someone with his immense talent,
Parker is worth a gamble at his current eighth-round ADP.
New
England
The rich get richer. That phrase pretty much sums up the 2017
offseason for the Patriots, who parted with the No. 32 pick in
a weak receiver draft to acquire one a wideout in Brandin Cooks
who figures to be better than anyone who shook Roger Goodell's
hand in late April. Owner Robert Kraft was the first to sing his
praises, comparing his
potential impact to that of Randy Moss. That's great, but
New England's offense is notoriously difficult for even veteran
receivers to learn, right? Well, HC Bill
Belichick appears to be impressed with his capacity to learn
as well, and we all know Belichick isn't the most vociferous guy
around when it comes to bragging on his team. As proof of how
quickly he seems to be picking things up, New England used
him all over the field during offseason practices.
Rex Burkhead saw
first-team reps this spring, Dion Lewis is expected
to stick around in a part-time role, Mike Gillislee appears
to have the "inside
track" to a starting job and James White has apparently
"won
over" the team with his "steadiness and continued
improvement." The times may-be-a-changin', but one thing
remains the same: the Patriots will keep four running backs on
their game-day roster and make their opponent guess which one
will break their heart. White's MVP-caliber performance in the
Super Bowl and new contract extension has probably bought him
some time (although he is probably going to remain in the Shane
Vereen/Danny Woodhead/Kevin Faulk role regardless of what happens),
while Gillislee is the heavy favorite to take over for LeGarrette
Blount, who ran for a franchise-record 18 touchdowns in what could
be considered a "power back" role.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: While the Patriots occasionally swing
and miss on trades (Chad Johnson and Albert Haynesworth come to
mind), the odds are pretty strong they made pretty solid contact
by adding Cooks. While the ex-Saint isn't going to come close
to Moss' NFL-record 23 receiving touchdowns, it doesn't mean Kraft
was wrong for making the statement he did. With defenses already
stretched thin in hopes they can stop Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman
and the running game, Cooks' versatility and speed is almost a
cheat code. A 70-catch, 12-15 touchdown season is not out of the
question for him.
Predicting New England's backfield is a near-impossible challenge
year after year, and the 2017 season figures to be as difficult
as ever. Lewis is one year removed from being in the position
White is now, and White's showing in the Super Bowl has seemingly
made people forget Lewis scored three touchdowns two games earlier
to help the Patriots avoid a playoff upset against Houston. Gillislee
is not the battering ram Blount was, but he is a more complete
back. Whether Belichick and OC Josh McDaniels have any desire
to use him as a receiver - taking snaps away from White in all
likelihood - is another question entirely. Burkhead might as well
be the new Brandon Bolden. In the end, Gillislee should run for
10-plus touchdowns if he, in fact, ends up taking over the Blount
role, while White a good bet to reach the 60-catch mark again,
making both players RB3s. At least for now, Lewis is being ticketed
for more of a utility role - likely to involve returning kicks
- while Burkhead figures to enjoy one or two monster performances
when one or more of the other three get hurt.
New
York Jets
In case folks were wondering what the deal was with the Jets'
backfield last season, RB Matt Forte had the same question. For
the most part, ex-OC Chan Gailey used Forte on first and second
downs before turning to Bilal Powell on third down - an
approach Forte called "odd" if only because the
ex-Bear set the NFL record for most receptions by running back
two years earlier. Forte allows more of a true committee is probably
the better way to go and it appears that is the way Gang Green
will play it in 2017 under new OC John Morton. This time around,
the
expectation is Powell will start and Forte will be his backup.
(Or
is it the other way around?) RB coach Stump Mitchell hinted
this may be the case in mid-June when he said Powell would
be a Pro Bowler if he were used as a feature back, although one
could ask the question: "If he is a Pro Bowl-caliber back,
why is he sharing time?" But there may be another
player to consider: sixth-rounder Elijah McGuire. "I
like everything (about him). He's got great hands. As a third-down
back or simply a back, he can catch the ball extremely well. He
has good vision, and a good ability to make cuts," Mitchell
said.
Along with upsetting Forte, Gailey's complete unwillingness (inability?)
to use the tight end during his two-year tenure as the play-caller
almost has to be unprecedented. Over 32 games under Gailey, New
York tight ends caught a total of 26 passes for 268 yards and
one touchdown. To put that into some perspective, the 2015 Houston
Texans had the next-lowest season total over that two-year stretch
and finished with 41 receptions for 448 yards and four touchdowns.
To that end, it will be up to Morton to get the likes of a clean
and sober Austin Seferian-Jenkins to live up to his vast potential.
ASJ was reportedly the "most
impressive player on the field" during OTAs and someone
the coaches hope
will build upon his offseason.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: If there is one position with some
degree of fantasy intrigue for Gang Green in 2017, it might be
at running back. Numerous Powell owners were laughing all the
way to the bank during the fantasy playoffs last year when he
took over the backfield in Week 14 and essentially put New York's
otherwise pathetic offense on his back. Owners of both players
(more Powell than Forte) have a bit of a reason to be optimistic,
however. Morton joined the Jets after working under Sean Payton
in New Orleans, which has targeted the running back position in
the passing game at least 22 percent of the time every year since
Payton became the head coach. Given the stripped-down roster New
York has this season, throwing the ball to the running back may
not only be the best way to keep its quarterback from taking a
beating, but also the best use of its talent. Both Powell and
Forte could be garbage-time kings if the Jets end up being as
truly bad as many expect, so don't avoid either one based simply
on the fact New York may struggle to win more than two or three
games.
Part of the reason Seferian-Jenkins should be a consideration
(again) for fantasy owners is because the likes of Quincy Enunwa,
Robby Anderson, ArDarius Stewart, Chand Hansen and Charone Peake
can't be expected to fill the shoes of Brandon Marshall and Eric
Decker. While the aforementioned running backs figure to pick
up some of that slack, it will be players like ASJ, who reportedly
dropped 25 pounds this offseason, to do the rest. Seferian-Jenkins
has never played more than nine games in a pro season, although
one has to wonder how much of that had to do with his drinking
problems. Owners can do much worse than spend a late round draft
pick on a former first-round talent who appears to be getting
his life straightened out on an offense almost devoid of proven
passing-game talent.
Amari Cooper is one of four WRs to top
150 catches and 2,200 yards in their first two seasons.
Oakland
Only four wideouts in NFL history have topped 150 catches AND
2,200 yards in their freshman and sophomore years, including Amari
Cooper. So why has he been considered a slight disappointment?
Because, unlike Odell Beckham Jr., A.J. Green, and Marques Colston,
the Alabama alum is the only one who has scored fewer than 18
touchdowns, and he has shown a tendency to fade down the stretch.
Apparently, news of his "disappointing" first two seasons
is getting to Cooper, who believes he
can be a lot more productive moving forward. To that end,
Cooper has reportedly bulked up and is flashing "that
dog," according to QB Derek Carr, who added he sees the
same thing in the former No. 4 overall pick now that he did at
in college when Cooper would just take games over. "(Defensive
backs) better know that he’s really taking it serious, that
he’s trying to go attack them this year. He’s not
going to let them come to him," Carr told The Las Vegas Review
Journal about Cooper.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Most
will point as Carr's reliance on Michael Crabtree as the main
reason Cooper has "disappointed", but former OC Bill
Musgrave has never been the most creative play-caller, nor does
he have been extensive history of featuring his most dynamic talents.
(Proof in point? Amari had 13 red zone targets last year, eight
fewer than Crabtree - not surprising when considering the same
stat in 2015 - but seven fewer than Seth Roberts.)
New OC Todd Downing doesn't have any formal play-calling experience
at the NFL level, but he was a sought-after assistant this offseason
who has been given a lot of credit for developing Carr. I've never
been shy about hiding my disdain for Musgrave as a play-caller
(he's proven to be a very good QB coach though) and readily acknowledge
Downing has much to prove. With that said, Downing almost has
to be more aggressive than Musgrave, and that alone favors Cooper.
The fact Cooper appears determined to take over the NFL by storm
in his third year is an added bonus. Consider him a top-10 receiver
on draft day and a strong candidate to join the elite at his position
in 2017.
Pittsburgh
With Ben Roethlisberger's retirement on the back burner, Le'Veon
Bell not doing much of note as he waits (hopes?) for a long-term
deal and Antonio Brown already signed to a long-term contract,
Martavis Bryant was about the only notable Steeler creating any
amount of buzz this spring. He was conditionally reinstated just
a few days before the start of the draft and apparently made
good use of his time away from the game, adding 10 pounds
of muscle to bring his weight up to 225. Pittsburgh protected
itself against another Bryant slip-up by spending a second-round
pick on JuJu Smith-Schuster, but it appears as if the rookie will
be fighting Eli Rogers for No. 3 duties. Assuming we can trust
Roethlisberger's "scouting report", Bryant "looks
like a stud, as usual."
Try as they might, the Steelers probably aren't going to find
the next Heath Miller anytime soon. That doesn't mean they won't
try, however, and it appears Big Ben is hoping Jesse James becomes
a reasonable facsimile. The duo reportedly spent a considerable
amount of time working on the red zone connection in the spring
and James was "consistently
targeted" in the end zone. Steelers.com Bob Labriola
isn't so sure James has the job locked up, however, as he stated
last week that Xavier Grimble has occasionally "flashed
the ability to be special." Labriola suggests if Grimble
can find a way to be more consistent - starting with catching
the football - perhaps he can steal the job.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Just like every NFL Draft has its
share of risk-or-reward players, fantasy drafts do too. I'm sure
most owners are hoping Bryant's off-field problems are a thing
of the past, but only time will tell. His lack of availability
in recent years isn't scaring off owners in early drafts very
much, however, as he is typically going in the fifth round. Considering
receivers like Larry Fitzgerald are going a few picks later and
wideouts like Stefon Diggs and DeVante Parker are going considerably
later, that seems like a high price to pay. He has WR2 upside,
but owners should be seeking receivers who don’t have such
a history of missing games and not so reliant on touchdowns in
that slot. I'd stump for Bryant all day as a WR3 though.
For as good of a real-life player as Miller was, there were really
only two years of his career in which he was a better-than-average
starter in fantasy. Pittsburgh can rely on Bell and Brown to get
most of the short-range passes that Miller used to feast on, while
Smith-Schuster and Rogers will more than likely pick up the scraps.
As a result, it's hard to imagine James or Grimble coming anywhere
close to 50 catches or doing much more than scoring the occasional
red zone touchdown. James can make a case for being considered
a low-end, low-upside TE2, but that is about it.
Tennessee
Eric Decker's late spring arrival to the Titans pretty much renders
any offseason workout talk about the receivers moot, as previous
likely starters Corey Davis and Rishard Matthews each will likely
slide down a peg on the passing-game totem pole. With Marcus Mariota
limited during the spring, the only position worth discussing
in Tennessee is running back, and the only reason that position
is noteworthy is because it appears very little has changed in
the minds of the coaching staff. HC Mike Mularkey addressed the
"Will Derrick Henry be more involved in the offense this
year?" question in February, and his
answer was firmly in favor of DeMarco Murray. Mularkey remained
consistent in late March, telling TitansOnline.com that "Murray
is our workhorse." OC Terry Robiskie was asked about
the same topic in early June, and his response to TitansOnline
was the team will find
ways to use both players, although that sounds very similar
to the expanded answer Mularkey gave earlier in the year. (Mularkey
in February: "Obviously, Murray is the guy. He has shown
he is the guy and he will continue to be that guy. Each week we
put a different game plan together. We spend a lot of hours preparing
to play the opponent. And Derrick, and as you saw, some games
he was more involved than others. And a lot is based on how we
are going to attack the opponent. We know (Derrick) is very special.")
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Mularkey's reluctance to even stage
a hint of competition for the starting running back job is odd
to say the least and actually seems a bit bizarre. The problem
is not Murray, who proved once again last season he is one of
the best all-purpose backs in the league. The most puzzling part
of Mularkey's comments is that he seems to be ignoring Murray's
recent workload (878 carries over last three seasons - 100 more
than anyone else) and age (29). The Titans pride themselves on
a smash-mouth running game, yet seem content on leaving their
247-pound thumper on the sideline. In other words, owners cannot
predict this will be a fairly straightforward 60:40 workload split
in favor of Murray even though it should probably be that simple.
The common-sense approach would be to assume Tennessee will begin
2017 the same way it used the duo over the last five weeks of
the regular season (Murray had 81 carries over that span, Henry
48), when it became common knowledge Murray was still dealing
with a toe injury he had suffered weeks earlier. Considering his
age, career workload and the kind of talent he has behind him
on the depth chart, Murray is far too risky to be going at the
1-2 turn in early drafts. Given the fact Henry owners probably
have to hope for an injury to Murray in order to see their guy
be consistently useful in fantasy, his ADP (6.01 in standard,
7.08 in PPR) is also probably too high, unless those same owners
see this backfield far exceeding the 473 catches and 17 touchdowns
it amassed in 2016.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.