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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 150 Big Board, TFC High-Stakes League
Preseason Matchup Analysis
8/17/17

TFC | FPPC

Last season, I participated in six high-stakes leagues through The Fantasy Championship (TFC), winning the league title with one team that finished inside the top 20 of all teams inside "The Championship" round. All in all, I came out a few hundred dollars ahead, which isn't bad considering how many of my teams had Brandon Marshall and Allen Robinson. (Just another reminder why it always a good habit to target receivers attached to proven quarterbacks.) One team had David Johnson and couldn't buy a win. On another team, five of top seven picks were out for the year by midseason. But I'm not here to complain, only move forward.

Without getting into a long-winded discussion about strategy in the TFC, what is the easiest way to negate the attrition that takes place at the running back position? Avoid investing high-end capital into it as long as you can, but doing so responsibly. In high-stakes competitions like the TFC and FFPC in which owners are required to start one quarterback, two running backs, two receivers, a tight end and two flexes, most owners opt to fill both flex spots with receivers, essentially making the first 4-6 rounds a race to see which owners can fill their flex spots the fastest. If you thought the demand for wideouts was/is crazy in leagues that start three receivers, you're in for a surprise in this format.

Given how much the Zero-RB crashed and burned for many last year, there may be a push in these high-stakes leagues to go a bit more old school this time around. I'm not sure that's a great idea. In fact, I'm more convinced than last year the way to go in the TFC is to prioritize receivers after the clear-cut running back workhorses are off the board. The Zero-RB "pool" in the middle rounds (high-upside backs like Mark Ingram, Mike Gillislee, Bilal Powell and Duke Johnson this year) should be more than serviceable as weekly starters if owners toward the end of the first round can come away with a pairing such as Jordy Nelson-Brandin Cooks-Michael Crabtree-Kelvin Benjamin after their first four picks.

Having said that, my winning team last year started off Ezekiel Elliott and Le'Veon Bell, who dropped into the second round because of his season-opening suspension. While some might wonder if Elliott's suspension this season provides a similar buying opportunity, I would agree to a point. However, the difference between Bell's three-game suspension and Elliott's likely six-game suspension is that I had Bell in my lineup by Week 4 last year. Elliott owners, as of now, are looking at Week 8 in 2017. The TFC playoffs begin in Week 13, meaning Elliott owners will only have him for five weeks at the most in the fantasy regular season. Fortune favors the bold, but buying Elliott in the third round of TFC drafts requires a leap of faith he will see is suspension reduced to four games.

The TFC uses scoring that is very similar to the PPR scoring I used in last week’s Big Boards. The main differences: The TFC awards four points (instead of six) for passing touchdowns, penalizes one point for interceptions (instead of two) and hands out a point for every 20 yards passing (instead of 25).

I realize that 150 players probably won’t be enough for you this week (both sites use a 20-round draft) and I apologize for that. Fear not, however, as next week’s 200-player Big Boards should be deep enough for the majority of you. (And honestly, shouldn’t most of us be drafting our most important teams next week anyway?)

For all of those unfamiliar with the Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

I've been working overtime this week in order to get my Success Score Index (SSI) on track. The score is an apples-to-oranges number I reach after meticulously grading and assigning certain weights to several unique attributes to that position that I feel are critical to fantasy success. While I still have some minor tweaks to make in order to adjust for different scoring systems, I feel comfortable enough with it to use it for this particular set of rankings. The goal all along has been to find a way to arrive at a common-sense score and use that to rank the players. I feel I have achieved that.

Note: Later this week, I will release my first Big Board for the FFPC. In the final set of Big Boards over the following two weeks, I will rank 200 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Half-Point PPR format:

 PPR Big Board - Top 150
Rank Pos Player Tm Age SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 RB David Johnson ARI 25 1097.5
2 RB Le'Veon Bell PIT 25 1096.3
3 WR Antonio Brown PIT 29 1092.5
4 WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 24 1090.0
5 WR Julio Jones ATL 28 1078.1
6 RB Devonta Freeman ATL 25 1076.0
7 WR Jordy Nelson GB 32 1059.0
8 WR Mike Evans TB 23 1053.8
9 RB DeMarco Murray TEN 29 1042.8
10 RB LeSean McCoy BUF 29 1039.8
11 RB Melvin Gordon LAC 24 1032.3
12 RB Jay Ajayi MIA 24 1030.8
13 RB Jordan Howard CHI 22 1026.8
14 WR A.J. Green CIN 29 1026.3
15 WR Michael Thomas NO 23 1025.0
16 RB Todd Gurley LAR 23 1021.3
17 TE Rob Gronkowski NE 28 1016.3
18 RB Leonard Fournette JAC 22 1014.0
19 WR Brandin Cooks NE 23 999.4
20 RB Lamar Miller HOU 26 987.8
21 RB Dalvin Cook MIN 22 983.3
22 RB Isaiah Crowell CLE 24 975.8
23 WR Doug Baldwin SEA 28 975.0
24 WR Michael Crabtree OAK 29 970.0
25 RB Ezekiel Elliott DAL 22 965.8
26 WR Amari Cooper OAK 23 963.8
27 WR DeAndre Hopkins HOU 25 961.5
28 WR Allen Robinson JAC 23 957.5
29 WR Kelvin Benjamin CAR 26 956.9
30 QB Tom Brady NE 40 955.0
31 WR T.Y. Hilton IND 27 952.5
32 WR Dez Bryant DAL 28 952.5
33 WR Demaryius Thomas DEN 29 951.3
34 RB Christian McCaffrey CAR 21 949.0
35 RB Joe Mixon CIN 21 938.8
36 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 33 937.8
37 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 33 936.5
38 WR Martavis Bryant PIT 25 936.3
39 WR Tyreek Hill KC 23 935.0
40 RB Mark Ingram NO 27 933.0
41 TE Jimmy Graham SEA 30 932.5
42 RB Ameer Abdullah DET 24 925.5
43 WR Emmanuel Sanders DEN 30 922.5
44 RB Marshawn Lynch OAK 31 921.5
45 RB Danny Woodhead BAL 32 920.8
46 TE Travis Kelce KC 27 920.0
47 WR Keenan Allen LAC 25 918.8
48 WR Jeremy Maclin BAL 29 917.5
49 WR Stefon Diggs MIN 23 917.5
50 WR Davante Adams GB 24 915.0
51 RB Carlos Hyde SF 25 907.5
52 RB Doug Martin TB 28 907.0
53 RB Adrian Peterson NO 32 904.5
54 RB Mike Gillislee NE 26 904.0
55 RB Ty Montgomery GB 24 903.3
56 RB Tevin Coleman ATL 24 903.0
57 RB Rob Kelley WAS 24 902.5
58 RB Jonathan Stewart CAR 30 901.8
59 TE Greg Olsen CAR 32 900.0
60 QB Drew Brees NO 38 897.5
61 WR Willie Snead NO 24 897.5
62 WR Jamison Crowder WAS 24 897.5
63 WR Cameron Meredith CHI 24 896.3
64 RB Frank Gore IND 34 895.0
65 WR DeVante Parker MIA 24 894.4
66 RB Bilal Powell NYJ 28 893.0
67 WR Brandon Marshall NYG 33 892.9
68 RB Duke Johnson CLE 23 891.3
69 TE Jordan Reed WAS 27 890.0
70 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN 27 888.8
71 WR Terrelle Pryor WAS 28 886.9
72 WR Golden Tate DET 29 885.0
73 WR Julian Edelman NE 31 883.8
74 WR Jarvis Landry MIA 24 880.0
75 WR Pierre Garcon SF 31 877.8
76 WR Alshon Jeffery PHI 27 876.4
77 RB Kareem Hunt KC 22 871.3
78 RB Derrick Henry TEN 23 867.3
79 TE Tyler Eifert CIN 26 866.3
80 WR Sammy Watkins LAR 24 865.6
81 RB Theo Riddick DET 26 863.8
82 WR Donte Moncrief IND 24 862.5
83 TE Hunter Henry LAC 22 862.5
84 RB Spencer Ware KC 25 861.8
85 RB LeGarrette Blount PHI 30 860.0
86 WR John Brown ARI 27 855.8
87 RB Darren McFadden DAL 29 851.5
88 RB C.J. Anderson DEN 26 851.3
89 QB Russell Wilson SEA 28 851.0
90 QB Matt Ryan ATL 32 850.5
91 WR DeSean Jackson TB 30 850.5
92 WR Randall Cobb GB 26 847.0
93 WR Mike Wallace BAL 31 844.0
94 TE Martellus Bennett GB 30 835.0
95 WR Adam Thielen MIN 26 833.8
96 WR Corey Coleman CLE 23 833.5
97 QB Andrew Luck IND 27 832.5
98 WR Eric Decker TEN 30 832.5
99 QB Jameis Winston TB 23 831.5
100 QB Philip Rivers LAC 35 831.5
101 RB Darren Sproles PHI 34 830.5
102 RB Terrance West BAL 26 828.8
103 WR Tyrell Williams LAC 25 826.9
104 WR Kenny Britt CLE 28 826.0
105 RB Jamaal Williams GB 22 823.3
106 QB Cam Newton CAR 28 822.5
107 QB Marcus Mariota TEN 23 822.0
108 WR Cole Beasley DAL 28 819.4
109 QB Kirk Cousins WAS 28 817.5
110 WR Kevin White CHI 25 815.0
111 RB Matt Forte NYJ 31 811.0
112 RB DeAndre Washington OAK 24 810.3
113 QB Dak Prescott DAL 24 808.5
114 QB Matthew Stafford DET 29 804.5
115 RB Chris Thompson WAS 26 802.0
116 RB Jalen Richard OAK 23 801.3
117 QB Derek Carr OAK 26 800.0
118 RB James White NE 25 799.3
119 RB Jonathan Williams BUF 23 798.5
120 RB Eddie Lacy SEA 27 798.0
121 QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 35 796.5
122 QB Andy Dalton CIN 29 796.5
123 WR Marvin Jones DET 27 793.1
124 WR Ted Ginn Jr. NO 32 791.9
125 QB Carson Palmer ARI 37 788.0
126 QB Eli Manning NYG 36 787.5
127 TE Delanie Walker TEN 33 785.0
128 WR Kenny Stills MIA 25 784.4
129 RB C.J. Prosise SEA 23 781.3
130 WR Sterling Shepard NYG 24 781.3
131 TE Zach Ertz PHI 26 781.3
132 TE Eric Ebron DET 24 781.3
133 TE Jack Doyle IND 27 780.0
134 RB James Conner PIT 22 777.5
135 WR Devin Funchess CAR 23 777.5
136 RB Paul Perkins NYG 22 774.0
137 RB Thomas Rawls SEA 24 772.5
138 TE Austin Hooper ATL 22 772.5
139 RB D'Onta Foreman HOU 21 770.8
140 TE Julius Thomas MIA 29 770.0
141 RB Samaje Perine WAS 21 769.5
142 RB Rex Burkhead NE 27 769.5
143 RB Alvin Kamara NO 31 766.0
144 WR Kenny Golladay DET 23 764.4
145 RB Devontae Booker DEN 25 763.8
146 WR Zay Jones BUF 22 762.5
147 QB Carson Wentz PHI 24 762.0
148 QB Tyrod Taylor BUF 28 760.5
149 RB Jacquizz Rodgers TB 27 760.3
150 WR Corey Davis TEN 22 760.0

A few items of note:

- I'm assuming above Elliott's suspension will be reduced to four games. While I haven't done the math on it yet, I would imagine the current six-game suspension for Elliott would send him back into the 45-50 range for the purposes of this board.

- Receivers will go fast. On this board, 25 of the first 50 players are wideouts. I would expect that to be a bit on the low side in most TFC drafts.

- How you view upside is ultimately up to you. I can't assign a number to one player's upside without tipping the apple cart over for several other players. For example, I prefer Dak Prescott over DeAndre Washington. Another good example would be James Conner and Paul Perkins. The SSI is only a value I have assigned for the player - and not a draft grade per se - and another way to tier within a position as well as across positions. I cannot assume to know whether a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 or high-upside RB5 is more important to you after the 10th round, nor can I assume if you need someone who is going to get some touches out of the gate (Perkins) or if you value a back who have huge upside if the starter in front of him gets hurt (Conner). I personally value Conner's upside more. That is why I emphasize year after year this is a "value board" more than it is "take the next guy on the list" board.

- There are several players on the outside looking in due to current injury situations or some other factor I am waiting (hoping) for more information on. Once those get resolved (if they do), I am confident several of them will slide inside the top 150. They are (in no particular order):


Next: FFPC


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.