The first NFL preseason game will kick off at the end of this week and I couldn't be happier about it. No, the Hall of Fame Game isn't the end-all and be-all of exhibition contests, but it means my first fantasy drafts are less than two weeks away. Outside of receiving the prize check in late January or early February each year, I can't think of a better time to be fantasy fanatic. Before we get there, however, we have some more work to do this week and next. So let's not waste another second.

Below you will see my initial first-quarter projections for each of the eight total teams in the AFC and NFC South. I have color-coded the matchups for the full season. I think it is essential for owners to know what they are signing up for in the second half of the season (and especially the fantasy playoffs) when they select a certain player. The stat projections and schedule analysis will still factor into the overall ranking of a player on my Big Boards, but will be one of about six or seven position-specific attributes that will be weighted, graded and scored. Those attributes, their explanations and the overall grades will make their first appearance on the Big Boards in mid-August. It's not as complex as it sounds and, after working out the kinks last year, I think it will lead to the best set of Big Boards yet.

Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations reasonable in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than league-average production.

White – Basically, this is a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Other important notes:

- The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2016.

- These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. In other words, don’t be alarmed if the projections on the Big Boards are different from the ones you see here.

Key to the table below:

PAvg - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NAvg - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC South

The Texans attempted 617 passes last year. Despite inking Osweiler to a contract that averages $18 M per year, they are unlikely to match that number in 2016. It's easy to forget Houston was playing from behind most of the time during its dreadful start (leading to 46.7 pass attempts per game) but averaged only 32.2 attempts after their Week 7 debacle versus the Dolphins. As one might expect, the fantasy-point totals - which were remarkably consistent over the first half of the season considering the quality of the quarterback play - were highly inconsistent over the second half. If Houston HC Bill O'Brien gets his wish, those low attempt totals will be the norm in 2016, which will mean Osweiler will need to maximize the few opportunities he has in order to be anything more than a low-level matchup-based quarterback. Given how juicy the schedule for Miller is after the bye, the odds are high Osweiler will appear on more than a few waiver wires by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around. Hopkins actually has a brutal slate in 2016. I don't see him matching last year's 111 catches or 1,521 yards for a number of reasons, although none of them have to do with bad luck or his ability. The running game will be better. Other receivers like Fuller and Strong will make defenses respect the opposite side of the field. However, those are two main reasons why I think he can surpass last year's 11 touchdown catches (he does need some help from O'Brien inside the 10, however). If he doesn't reach that lofty goal, it might be because Strong is stealing some of his thunder. The second-year wideout was one of the best in the 2015 draft class at winning contested catches, which should make him a red-zone force sooner than later, especially now that he is down to 197 pounds after weighing around 220 as a rookie. I'd really like to see Stephen Anderson emerge as the secondary target to open things up even more for Hopkins and Miller, but I'm not betting on an undrafted rookie free agent to make a sizeable impact - especially at tight end - in an offense that virtually ignored the position last year.

Volume is a word that gets tosses around too much nowadays in fantasy football. It is not always the cure-all for a difficult schedule or limited personnel. It does make a difference, however, when we are discussing players as talented as Luck. Although we may never know for sure, I'm fairly certain the NFL's richest player was never healthy and got beat up so much in the first two games that he started to press, only to make things worse. Luck's 2016 schedule is far from easy, but the combination of a supremely talented three-wide set (which is expected to be the team's base formation this year), OC Rob Chudzinski and the aforementioned volume could allow him to enjoy a career year. In this case, the yellows are more alerts than warnings; I'll take 40-plus pass attempts per game from Luck to Hilton, Moncrief, Dorsett and Allen over just about any defense. With that said, the fantasy playoffs represent the offense's greatest challenge of the season, so don't count on superhuman performances in those contests. Hilton gets to escape most of the poor matchups with his work in the slot, although his well-documented home/road splits are going to be a problem over the final four weeks of the fantasy season (three road games). As per usual, he might fall short of WR1 numbers, but high-end WR2 production should be well within his reach. Moncrief and Dorsett have nearly identical matchup lines, but I'm not sure their yellows are going to matter most of the time either. Extrapolated over a full season, Moncrief's seven games with Luck as the starter last year would have led to a 73-802-11 line. Given his talent, size (6-2, 226) and the fact Indy is replacing over 200 targets from last year, he's a good bet to reach those catch and touchdown numbers this year (while improving on last year's 11.5 YPC). Whereas size is what makes Moncrief unique among this group of receivers, Dorsett is even faster than Hilton. The second-year pro may be more of a hit-or-miss fantasy proposition, but most teams simply don't have a third corner that can run like him, so he'll have his share of week-winning fantasy performances. (Again, treat both Moncrief and Dorsett's yellows as alerts rather than warnings.) Chudzinski loves making stars out of the tight end position, so Allen needs to be taken seriously as a high-end TE2. Something to keep in mind, however, is that Allen is a good blocker and has run pass routes on less than half of his snaps over the last two seasons. He figures once again to be heavily reliant on red-zone scores, so matchups probably won't matter much to him either.

Bortles threw 37.1 percent (13 of 35) passing touchdowns last year in three games last year (two against the two worst pass defenses of the NFC South and one against the AFC South's worst). The defense added a boatload of talent and the team is paying Ivory over $6 M/year to bring some physicality to the offense. I doubt the NFC North or the Titans will be as accommodating this season, so improvement will have to come via improved efficiency (58.6 completion percentage to go along with 18 interceptions in 2015) or more volume (the team discussed using more no-huddle in the offseason) if owners have any illusions about Bortles' ability to deliver another 30-plus passing scores. While the slate is not quite as brutal as it is for the running game, I have the third-year quarterbacks down for eight yellows and one red, which probably means he is destined to fall into the low-end QB1 conversation in 12-team leagues despite a strong supporting cast. It appears his most consistent stretch should come between Weeks 4-8, but I don't like his chances of helping teams during the fantasy postseason at all. Robinson isn't unlike DeAndre Hopkins in the sense that both do a lot of damage downfield by using their incredible ball skills to overcome less-than-ideal measurables. I think his 80 catches and 1,400 yards are repeatable in 2016, but I'm not sure his 14 touchdowns are if Thomas can play most of the season. Although I think most owners will draft him as a WR1, they will probably view him as more of a high-end fantasy WR2 in December. Hurns was the primary slot receiver last year and shouldn't be expected to score 10 times again. With Robinson and Thomas healthy and anything resembling a decent ground game, he's a strong candidate to disappoint at his current 5.10 ADP. I think whatever decline Robinson and Hurns experience will be to the benefit of Thomas, whose biggest enemy has always been his durability. Given the glowing offseason reports (one of the few that I am actually willing to buy) regarding Bortles and Thomas, I'll take the artist formerly known as Orange Julius against all but the top safety/linebacker combinations in the NFL. Thus, I expect Thomas to win roughly half of his yellow matchups and be a clear TE1 even if he only plays 12-14 games.

Mariota accounted for at least three touchdowns in four of his 12 starts, yet did not throw or run for a score in four others. That inconsistency is probably what one might expect from a rookie quarterback, but there are more positives than negatives to draw from that considering he had Walker and a lot of question marks at receiver with virtually no running game. His supporting cast should be better this season, but I'm not sure he's going to see the volume (33.2 pass attempts in his 11 full games last year) he needs in order to take a huge step forward for his owners. His running ability will help with some of that, but the coaching staff knows it will be taking a big risk using his legs too much considering he missed four games (and most of a fifth) last year due to knee injuries. Much as was the case with Murray and Henry, Mariota's biggest challenges figure to come in the first and fourth quarters of the season, although he should enjoy relatively smooth sailing from Weeks 5-12, making him a fine matchup-based starter for most of the year. Last week's addition of Johnson might blow up the depth chart at receiver, although one has to think Matthews is safe as one outside receiver and Wright is probably still locked in at the slot. Either way, I'm not crazy about the potential of this receiver group delivering a regular fantasy starter (maybe Wright as a low-end WR3 if he can stay healthy as a slot who will avoid most of the opponents' top corners). I believe every yellow is a legit one for Matthews, who probably is not ready to beat the likes of Xavier Rhodes, Darius Slay, Sean Smith, Johnathan Joseph (Weeks 1-4), Vontae Davis (Weeks 7 and 11) or Jason Verrett (Week 9) on a regular basis. Obviously, not all of those players will shadow Matthews - in fact it is entirely possible none of them will - but I included it here because to give each of you an idea as to the level of competition he will face before the bye. Needless to say, it doesn't get easier after Week 13 either. The news is dramatically different for Walker, who is probably going to see a fairly sizeable decrease from his 133 targets, 94 catches and 1,088 receiving yards a season ago with the additions of Matthews, Sharpe and Johnson. With that said, he could easily make that up by scoring more touchdowns as an improved running game and more talent at receiver should free things up for him.

NFC South

Fun fact: Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger finished with identical touchdown (21) and interception (16) totals last season. The biggest difference: Big Ben played in four fewer games and Ryan fumbled 10 more times. While Year 2 in Shanahan's system should help Ryan eliminate all the backbreaking turnovers he was responsible for last year, the schedule offers plenty of reason why it is going to be hard for him to return to QB1 status in 2016. From Weeks 5-13, Atlanta will have only two favorable passing-game matchups (and that assumes the Eagles' corners aren't substantially better in the post-Chip Kelly era and under the guidance of new DC Jim Schwartz). If we include Carolina and Los Angeles as potential yellows, there Ryan will struggle to be even a dependable matchup-based starter after Week 3. Jones is set up for another huge season (targets as well as production), although he is likely to get shadowed (at least some of the time) by Richard Sherman (Week 6) and Patrick Peterson (Week 12), I'll take my chances with a freakish receiver as good as Jones entering his prime against any cornerback, however; injury is the only concern for him. In all his other matchups, he's a candidate for around 10 catches, 100-plus yards and/or a touchdown. Some might see Sanu as an improvement over Roddy White; I'm not sure I agree. He is certainly more versatile in that he can threaten the defense with the occasional gadget play, but he's going to be stretched to be more than a WR5 most weeks even with an easy schedule. I was initially a fan of Hooper - possibly as a red-zone maven - but I'm not so sure after this analysis. Not only are rookie tight ends notoriously poor fantasy bets, but it seems just about every opponent has a formidable cover linebacker, free safety or both. Given the likelihood that Tamme will work out of the slot at least some of the time and doesn't bring much of a downfield threat to the offense, defenses will probably let him do his thing underneath more often than not. He should still be a serviceable bye-week tight end option.