Beat writers as well as national columnists must provide content
on a regular (usually daily) basis, so it is a fairly difficult
chore to monitor the activities of 32 teams and get a grasp on what
it all means. Making matters more challenging is the fact that every
team – and thus every writer covering the team – tends
to view a half-filled glass as three-quarters full (if not running
completely over). As a result, many teams have running backs that
will touch the ball 20 times a game as well as a no-name receiver
capable of scoring 8-10 touchdowns. It’s far from an ideal
system, but there is little doubt that having the information –
some of which will come to fruition – is better than having
no information at all.
As I often say in one form or another at this time of year, now
is not the time to be making final judgments on players. The early
summer months are for collecting information and researching trends
so that we can make informed decisions down the road. Any bit
of knowledge that can be gathered or opinions that can be researched
and strengthened at this point of the offseason should be considered
gaining an edge on your competition.
Last week, we
took a long look into the offseason happenings of all 16 AFC teams.
This week, we’ll do the same with the NFC:
Arizona
The hype surrounding WR Michael Floyd and his potential breakout
season last year was palpable. This time around, it appears WR
John Brown will be the darling of Cardinals’ camp (even more so
than he was last year). Brown’s 2015 hype train got started in
mid-April when The Arizona Republic's Bob McManaman said called
him “the real deal” and said he expected "big
things" from the second-year wideout, continued after it was
confirmed
he added 10 pounds of upper-body muscle after playing at 173
as a rookie in an effort to prevent wearing down and carried on
after QB Carson Palmer said he expected “huge
things” from him. The team’s official site followed suit,
saying “Smokey” is “being
primed to be a star”.
With Palmer “ahead of schedule” in his recovery from a second
ACL surgery, the other major storyline fantasy owners will keep
an eye on this preseason is the Cardinals’ backfield. RB Andre
Ellington remains “the
linchpin” at the position, although third-round rookie David
Johnson has impressed with his ability in the passing game, which
does not come as a surprise to anyone that watched him play at
Northern Iowa. “Johnson catches the ball so naturally, he looks
like he belongs with the receiver's group,” Arizona Republic beat
writer Kent
Somers wrote in mid-June. The other things that were fairly
obvious from Johnson’s college tape were his unwillingness to
run inside and finish runs consistently, which means Arizona’s
front office and/or HC Bruce Arians decided before or during the
draft that if they could not land a Todd Gurley- or Melvin Gordon-type
in the first round, then they would prefer to choose a player
that shared many of the same qualities Ellington has in order
to avoid changing the game plan in case the injury-prone veteran
gets hurt.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: It has been well-documented
that HC Bruce Arians has turned small and fast receivers like
T.Y. Hilton and Antonio Brown into stars. Given Arians’ track
record, it would seem it is only a matter of when, not if, Brown
becomes the next big thing. As the four links above suggest, many
teammates, beat writers and coaches think the passing of the torch
from Larry Fitzgerald to Brown could begin as early as this year.
As a result, the Pittsburg State (Kan.) product is easily worth
a 10th-round pick in redraft formats. Ellington’s stock
appears to still be strong post-NFL Draft, but his injury history
suggests Johnson is going to get his shot to be the featured back
for at least a few games. How long will it take before the staff
decides to give more work to the bigger back in Johnson (6-1,
224), who does many of the same things Ellington (5-9, 199) does
but with less proneness to injury? I’m not going to suggest a
midseason depth-chart change will happen, but I believe
this (the likelihood that Ellington will be a 15-18 touch-per-game
back all season) is a less stable situation than I think most
casual observers realize.
Atlanta
Over the years, “Shanahan” has been a name that has become synonymous
with productive running games but, more often than not, unpredictability
in regards to the consistency of a weekly starter. New OC Kyle
Shanahan may be his father’s son, but his track record of sticking
with one back is much better than Mike’s. Some may not say that
after watching the 2014 Browns, but it is looking more and more
like the blame for the running back mess than occurred in Cleveland
last year should go to HC Mike Pettine. Be that as it may, there
is a possibility the running game of the 2015 Falcons may remind
veteran owners of some of the backfields that made some people
swear off any running back that used to play for Kyle’s dad. New
HC Dan Quinn told the team’s official site at the end of May that
second-year veteran Devonta Freeman and third-round rookie Tevin
Coleman are “absolutely
battling for it (the starting job)”. Most of the early returns
have been mixed, as Atlanta Journal-Constitution beat writer D.
Orlando Ledbetter projected Coleman
as 1A and Devonta Freeman as 1B in early May while ESPN’s
Vaughn McClure predicted “a
two-back system with equal reps” in late May.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: As
much as owners despise depth chart uncertainty – especially in
potential fantasy goldmines – some position battles actually need
to be settled in training camp and the preseason. That is going
to be the case in Atlanta. Coleman probably enters as the slight
favorite due to the fact Shanahan had to sign off on his selection,
but Quinn
has been very complimentary of the work habits Freeman has
shown thus far. Coleman (5-11, 206) was one the best big-play
artists in a draft full of quality runners and is a plus-blocker,
which would seem to give him the necessary edge. However, the
rookie is a bit straight-linish whereas Freeman (5-8, 206) has
a bit more shake-and-bake to him. Given the fact that both players
are very similar in terms of size and weight, Shanahan could easily
go in any number of directions with his decision. Coleman does
run with the most power, however, so he would seem to be the odds-on
favorite for short-yardage/goal-line work. If/when one of the
two players emerges as the lead or featured back, there is significant
fantasy RB2 upside in Shanahan’s system. If neither runs with
the full-time job, then both will probably be inconsistent RB3
or flex options.
Carolina
QB Cam Newton signed to an extension and healthy. Check and check.
Jonathan Stewart is the unquestioned starter at running back and
healthy. Surprising check and check. TE Greg Olsen is still Greg
Olsen. Check. With so much certainty in Carolina, the only position
left to talk about on the offensive side of the ball – outside
of the questionable decision to start Michael Oher at left tackle
and either Mike Remmers or Daryl Williams at right tackle – is
receiver. Kelvin Benjamin is off to an uninspiring start as he
attempts to follow up a 73-catch, nine-TD rookie campaign. The
Panthers’ top receiver missed a large chunk of OTAs and minicamp
with hamstring pulls in both legs. While his absence gave rookie
second-round Devin Funchess a chance to
work at all three receiver positions and ex-Jet Stephen Hill
a chance to receive the all-important “standout
player of OTAs” award from HC Ron Rivera, Carolina GM Dave
Gettleman indirectly confirmed that Benjamin was about 8-9 pounds
overweight upon arriving to offseason workouts when he said the
reports of his receiver’s weight gain were “much ado about nothing”.
The early reports on Funchess are encouraging. Some teams are
hesitant to allow a rookie to learn all three receiver positions,
so the Panthers must be happy with his overall aptitude for the
game. “He’s a good route runner, he really is. And he’s shown
the ability to go up and get the ball. His catch radius is really
good, and with Cam it helps,” Rivera told the Charlotte Observer
in early June. The process of letting Funchess learn all three
spots began in rookie minicamp, where he
looked particularly “smooth” out of the slot. That’s a role
many likely assumed Jerricho Cotchery would fill, although the
team probably isn’t nearly as concerned about the veteran’s best
fit so much as it cares that it creates the biggest mismatch possible
for the rookie.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: On one hand, Gettleman is
right – people want to create news when there often is none and
there is no crime in a receiver adding a few pounds during the
offseason. Still, Benjamin has battled weight issues before –
he took a redshirt season at Florida State after arriving on campus
20 pounds overweight – and it is disappointing that a player with
his considerable gifts isn’t taking a more aggressive approach
in maximizing his talent. Regardless, he’s going to be the top
receiver in Carolina for a while. Benjamin should remain in the
WR2 discussion in all fantasy leagues, but his overall numbers
could take a hit following the addition of Funchess. The Panthers
could be eyeing a Marques Colston-like path for their rookie out
of Michigan by using him all over the formation, so Funchess is
definitely worth a later-round pick in all drafts should he beat
out Cotchery for the starting job as most expect he will do. With
that said, Funchess will be no better than the third option in
the passing game most weeks for a team that likes to run the ball,
so consider him a WR5 with upside.
Chicago
This will probably be the last time anyone can say the following:
Kevin White is the fourth-best receiver in the Windy City. At
the moment, it appears that is a true statement, even if it isn’t
an accurate one. White missed time during minicamp due to an undisclosed
injury, which is a bit of a setback considering the No. 7 overall
pick has a steep learning curve (in regards to learning the playbook
and improving his route-running) coming out of West Virginia’s
pure spread attack. New HC John Fox has usually taken a hard line
with rookies to boot, so it may have been telling QB Jay Cutler
indicated to the Chicago Tribune in mid-June that White
was competing for the No. 4 job behind Alshon Jeffery, Marquess
Wilson and Eddie Royal.
Speaking of Royal, the mere mention of his name probably causes
some owners that have been beaten or burned by him over the last
two years to scream “FLUKE!” uncontrollably. The ex-Bronco and
Charger has recorded top-40 finishes among receivers in virtually
all formats over the last two years in large part because he has
scored 10 (of his 15) touchdowns over that time inside the 20
– a red-zone mark that is tied for ninth in the league among wide
receivers (and rather impressive considering his 5-10 and 185-pound
frame). The 29-year-old rejoins former Bronco Cutler and new OC
Adam Gase, who was his position coach in Denver from 2009-10.
That time together may have been a boon for Royal as “his early
grasp of the Bears' new offense has him in great position to play
a prominent role right away” according to ESPN’s Mike Sando.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: If there is any high-profile,
first-year receiver that is in danger of disappointing in redraft
leagues (at least when it comes to comparing him to last year’s
rookie success at the position), it is probably White. Fox has
a reputation for making rookies earn their stripes, so it should
come as no surprise if the combination of White’s raw route-running
and Gase’s familiarity with Royal wins out early in the season.
In that scenario, the rookie should salvage some value as a prime
red-zone target since he attacks the ball in the air as well as
any receiver in April’s draft. However, his late-sixth (standard)
and early-seventh (PPR) ADP is far too high at this point for
a player as raw as he is. As for Royal, it may not seem like a
big deal that he is quickly learning Gase’s system. But consider
this: Royal signed a three-year, $15 M contract with Chicago (hardly
chump change) and caught 91 balls in the only year he worked with
Cutler in Denver. It may end up being something or nothing, but
Royal is another player that I believe is worth taking a late-round
flyer on this year. He could be particularly useful in best-ball
formats.
Dallas
Perhaps no offseason fantasy debate has sparked more conversation
than the Cowboys’ backfield and what player(s) will fill the void
left behind by DeMarco Murray’s exodus to Philadelphia. The backs
vying for Murray’s old job are known: Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden
and Lance Dunbar. (It should be stated here that Dunbar isn’t
so much in the running for the starting job as much as he is squarely
in the mix for a decent workload.) For what it is worth, Dallas
is “very comfortable” (in the words of owner Jerry Jones) with
its trio of running backs and the Fort
Worth Star-Telegram speculated in mid-June, like team president
Stephen
Jones suggested in early May, that the team would utilize
a committee approach in the backfield. But that doesn’t really
come as a surprise, does it? ESPN Dallas’ Todd Archer was bolder,
predicting Randle
will receive “the bulk” of the carries and rush for 1,200
yards, but acknowledged that he didn’t see “one guy coming close
to 300 carries”. The Dallas Morning News’ Jon Machota skipped
the prediction, but suggested that he believes
the starting job is Randle’s “as long as he’s available, meaning
he’s staying out of trouble”. But wait, there’s more. The Cowboys,
who talked up the role Dunbar was going to play last year, are
doing it again in 2015. “I envision (Dunbar getting more opportunities).
… We’ve got to try and get him more involved and I think (OC Scott
Linehan) is going to do a great job doing that,” running
backs coach Gary Brown said. ESPN
Dallas concurred.
With Dez Bryant sitting out offseason work to angle for a new
contract, WR Terrance Williams has been an “opportunist”, to use
his own words. The third-year wideout has drawn rave reviews for
his offseason workouts, with HC Jason Garrett contending he has
become
the pacesetter for the offense “in so many ways”. QB Tony
Romo has been similarly impressed. “Terrance has had one of the
best off-seasons I’ve seen in a while. So I’m very excited about
his approach, the way that he’s played up to this point in the
offseason. He’s just improved and I’m excited about that development,”
Romo told The Star-Telegram.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Of all the NFL backfields
that have starting jobs yet to be handed out, the Cowboys’ is
perhaps the most intriguing because there doesn’t appear to be
a clear frontrunner for the job and the ADPs for all three players
are all very low considering the potential return on investment
they can provide. Dallas has one of the best – if not the best
– offensive line in football and one that helped Randle rush for
10 or more yards on 22 percent of his 51 carries – the highest
percentage in the league and double the league average - and average
6.7 YPC overall. Of course, Randle did plenty of good work himself
as 214 of his 343 rushing yards came after contact. Even if he
just leads a committee and see his touches capped at about 15
per game, the 6-0, 210-pound Oklahoma product could be a high-upside
RB2. If he somehow leaves McFadden in the dust, his ceiling is
that of a top 5-10 fantasy back. Then again, the same probably
goes for McFadden if he leads a committee or becomes the featured
back at some point. Dunbar should be on pretty much every fantasy
roster, especially in PPR formats. With no clear-cut back hogging
all the touches, this seems like the right time for a satellite
back like Dunbar to post 40-50 carries and 30-40 catches. Williams
has established himself as a big-play threat over his first two
seasons (13 TDs on 81 career receptions), so if he is truly rounding
out his game, it can only help him in terms of becoming a more
consistent fantasy receiver. With that said, Bryant will be back
at some point and TE Jason Witten remains a Romo favorite, so
Williams will be hard-pressed to be anything more than the third-most
targeted player in the Cowboys’ passing game. With WR Cole Beasley
also in the mix, the odds seem rather long that Williams will
be able to become an every-week starting option in three-receiver
leagues.
Detroit
If rookie RB Ameer Abdullah can perform on the field at anywhere
near the level he has dominated the spring headlines, then it
really might not matter if Joique Bell (Achilles, knee) is able
to recover from a pair of offseason surgeries in time for the
start of training camp. The initial plan was to use the No. 54
overall pick as the primary kick returner and big-play threat
out of the backfield. That may still be the case, but you wouldn’t
know it based on comments made by QB Matthew Stafford and OC Joe
Lombardi. Stafford (on
the team’s official website): “I think as a runner he has
great balance. … He seems to hide pretty well behind there and
he’s got good vision. Out of the backfield, catching the ball,
he’s great. He’s got great hands. He has a good feel for route
running.” Lombardi (on
the team’s official website): “I like Abdullah more every
day. Every day you can see him do things that really excite you.
He didn’t get a chance maybe to show everything he can do as a
receiver at Nebraska, but he’s even better in that phase of the
game than I thought when we drafted him, so it was kind of a bonus
when you see how well he catches the ball and how well he runs
routes.”
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: At the moment, Bell is supposed
to be ready for the start of the camp. Whether or not he will
be in
shape for it is another story. Undrafted free agent Zach Zenner
is probably the best inside runner after Bell on the depth chart
and is obviously not guaranteed a spot of the final roster. What
it all means is that Abdullah is in prime position to see significant
offensive touches right away. The fact that he has been so impressive
in the passing game suggests RB Theo Riddick will be a smaller
part of the Lions’ committee than expected, that is, unless Bell
is unable to stay healthy and Detroit wants to avoid overloading
Abdullah. Regardless of whether Bell is able to make it through
the season, Nebraska’s second all-time leading rusher should be
a lock for the 10.5 touches Reggie Bush averaged in 11 games with
Detroit last year. That’s his floor. Abdullah’s ceiling should
be in the 16-18 touch range, which is significant in Detroit because
he is a big-play back in an offense that has big-time playmakers
in the passing game. It is also realistic because of Bell’s injury
woes. There’s plenty of reason to believe the rookie will lead
the committee no later than midseason and, if that happens, he
could give owners RB2 value at that point.
Green
Bay
If any player in the NFC North can give Abdullah a run for his
money in terms of offseason hype this spring, that person is probably
WR Davante Adams. QB Aaron Rodgers got the train going after an
early June practice, proclaiming that his second-year wideout
has “humongous
upside – and he’s starting to reach that upside”. Rodgers
went on to say,” I think the opportunities are going to come for
him. … His attention to detail is very impressive and his approach.
Look at the two guys in this room (Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb)
who had phenomenal seasons last year. They both have a great approach
to their job and you’re seeing Davante really do that.” Rodgers
wasn’t done, bragging
about Adams to ESPN Milwaukee about a week later. “Davante
is a very polished player and he has an excellent demeanor for
a guy who’s going to be a star. I mean, he carries himself like
a star, which is a very high compliment. … He has supreme confidence
and it’s contagious. And I’m really proud of his approach and
his attitude. It makes you want to get him the ball more. It makes
you watch the film and have regrets about not giving him more
opportunities. And that’s again, another compliment for him.”
To top it off, HC Mike McCarthy called Adams “tremendous throughout
the OTAs” and said, “if you wanted me to pick an
MVP or an all-star (of OTAs), he would definitely be atop
the list."
Adams wasn't the only potential pass-catcher that stood out to
Rodgers, as he credited TE Andrew Quarless with a great offseason
as well. “I think … something clicked in for him at the end of
last year and he’s been taking the jump,” Rodgers
told ESPN Milwaukee. Last but not least, McCarthy spoke up
for No. 4 WR Jeff Janis. “Janis is really moving forward. (He)
came on at the end of last year and was ready to play,” McCarthy
told ESPN’s Rob Demovsky
in early June.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: The best quarterbacks in the
league are typically among the hardest to impress, so it speaks
volumes that Rodgers is speaking in such glowing terms about Adams.
His OTA performance was surely helped by the fact that Nelson
sat out with a hip injury, but Adams’ time is coming, possibly
as soon as this year. James Jones, who Adams was compared to coming
out of college, led the league in receiving touchdowns with 14
as the Packers’ third receiver in 2012, so it isn’t out of the
question that the Fresno State product is a threat for 60-plus
catches, 800-900 yards and 7-8 scores in 2015. As such, Adams
is a value at his current ninth-round ADP. While Quarless may
be on the verge of taking snaps away from Richard Rodgers at his
position, it seems unlikely he will be the first Packers’ tight
end since Jermichael Finley to be fantasy-relevant, especially
with three receivers and RB Eddie Lacy all serving as more appealing
targets. Quarless will probably be a serviceable fantasy TE2 because
Rodgers will look for him near the goal line, but expecting a
huge jump from his 29-323-2 line in 2014 would probably be a mistake.
Aaron Rodgers has shown the capacity to make four receivers worthy
of fantasy consideration, although it would almost certainly take
a multi-week injury to Nelson, Cobb or Adams in order for Janis
to be a decent stash in most normal-sized leagues. He is a worthwhile
stash in dynasty leagues, however.
Minnesota
Time (and no extra money, or the possibility of some more of it)
was enough to bring back RB Adrian Peterson to the field near
the end of OTAs. Peterson, of course, has not played since Week
1 of last season and was the subject of trade speculation for
months leading up to the draft after he indicated the Vikings
committed an unforgivable sin by siding too closely with the NFL
as his child-abuse scandal unfolded last fall. It didn’t take
much time for Minnesota to reacquaint itself with its 30-year-old
back and vice versa, as Peterson showed
no signs of rust upon his return. HC Mike Zimmer also suggested
that he “probably” did not see Peterson taking snaps during the
preseason.
Prior to the acquisition of Mike Wallace from Miami, Vikings
OC Norv Turner told ESPN Cleveland in February that Charles Johnson
was “far
and away our best receiver”. Fast forward to June, when Turner
suggested that the disappointing Cordarrelle Patterson was in
the mix to start, presumably at the same “X” receiver spot
he lost to Johnson late last season. It all makes a bit more sense
after a number of reports from the St. Paul Pioneer Press and
Minneapolis Star-Tribune claimed Patterson stepped up his fitness
and focused on his route-running in the offseason, areas of improvement
Zimmer confirmed in May. “Cordarrelle is doing a good job in this
offseason. He has been in better shape coming in, and he is doing
a better job of running routes (and) competing each and every
down. … I’m a big fan of his.”
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: The question about how Peterson
will handle a year away from football has been asked countless
times since the end of last season. I’m going to put my money
on the guy who basically set the standard when it comes to returning
from ACL surgery; it would not shock me if he can play at an elite
level for 2-3 more years and at a relatively high level for 2-3
more years after that, assuming he wants to go that long. He’s
in the running for the top overall pick in fantasy drafts and
it would not surprise me if I arrive at the same conclusion when
my Big Boards come out in a little over a month. A different dynamic
this season will be the presence of Jerick McKinnon – a player
RB coach Kirby
Wilson is thrilled about and someone who will take snaps (but
not necessarily significant touches) from “All Day” this season.
Patterson is slated to be the primary kickoff returner – special
teams coordinator Mike Priefer called him the best in the league
– and could carve out a spot for himself in the slot over Jarius
Wright by Week 1 if he can prove his offseason work paid off.
Wallace should be entrenched as the “Z”, so if Patterson wants
to reclaim his starting job, he will have to do so by beating
out Johnson. It could happen considering what the 24-year-old
Tennessee product can do in the open field, but it should be noted
that Johnson (6-2, 225) put on 10 pounds of muscle over the winter
and spring and is an incredible athlete himself – part of the
reason Green Bay drafted him in 2013. Johnson’s current 8.1 ADP
in both standard and PPR formats sounds about right in terms of
balancing out his immense upside with the possibility that Patterson
ends up being a bit of drain on the level of production he enjoyed
near the end of last season.
New
Orleans
The king of the offseason has been none other than TE Josh Hill,
who saw his NFL life change the same day Jimmy Graham was traded
to Seattle. The hype surrounding the former undrafted free agent
was relatively minor until late March, when HC Sean Payton said
the following: “This Josh Hill is another player that I love.
I love. When you look at his runs, jumps, height, weight, speed,
you look at his measurables -- and he didn’t go to the combine,
thank God. … He’s not on anyone’s fantasy first three rounds,
I promise you. But he’s a real good tight end, he’s versatile
in the running game, in the receiving game (and) as a special-teams
player.” The support for the third-year grew even more after the
Saints did not draft a tight end and probably plateaued about
the same time Payton basically confirmed
Hill would play the Graham role in his offense.
Virtually unthinkable at this time a year ago, Mark Ingram is
the only running back that remains from the backfield that lost
Pierre Thomas and Travaris Cadet this offseason after trading
away Darren Sproles last offseason. Enter C.J. Spiller, who unexpectedly
became a priority in free agency when the ex-Bill prioritized
fit first and foremost and took his time before agreeing to
terms with the Saints. “His (film) is unbelievable. And I’m not
talking about last season because I think it became challenging,
but you go back a couple of years and start looking at his screen
reel, a sweep reel, a return reel. So when you watch his film
you think of a lot of things he can do,” Payton told ESPN in late
March. The coach’s tone hadn’t changed by early June, telling
the team’s official site, “He'll provide versatility. He can
do a handful of things pretty well. It's up to us to find ways
to get him the ball in space."
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Hill is not just a candidate
to get overdrafted in yearly leagues; it is a virtual certainty
that he will. ESPN’s
Mike Triplett seems to agree. Picking apart some of Payton’s
other comments about Hill, it becomes fairly clear he doesn’t
anticipate a Graham-like explosion (“It just depends on how much
two tight end sets we’re in. I couldn’t say specifically that
he is going to have 25 percent more playing time but certainly
his playing time will increase. … A lot of it will be by game
plan and what we are trying to do.”) Payton also referenced Hill’s
prowess on special teams in the same article he professed his
love for the young tight end, so given the fact that New Orleans
has a capable “F” tight end in Benjamin Watson it trusts, it seems
unlikely the coach will take a player he said was quite possible
his team’s special teams MVP last year off of those units. Hill
could be a low-end fantasy TE1 given the relative lack of quality
options at the position when all is said and done, but he probably
shouldn’t be going in the ninth round of fantasy drafts ahead
of such players like Antonio Gates and Delanie Walker. While caution
should be exercised regarding Hill, I will be buying Spiller stock
wherever and whenever I can. It’s not hard to imagine Spiller
totaling 100-plus carries and 80-plus catches in a backfield that
averaged 189 targets and 150.5 receptions per year since Sproles
joined the Saints in 2011. Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson can
each catch the ball, but I highly doubt they combine for 50 receptions.
Even if the Saints become more a balanced offense this year, Payton
loves creating mismatches and Spiller does that. I expect a top-15
finish at worst for him in PPR leagues.
New
York Giants
It’s not often a 34-year-old football player can generate offseason
buzz, but QB Eli Manning is doing all the things necessary to
make sure he guarantees himself one more big payday after his
current contract expires at the end of the season. In late April,
he expressed his
desire to post a single-digit interception total in 2015 after
throwing 14 last year – his lowest total since becoming a full-time
starter in 10 years ago. By June, the narrative had become “the
interceptions have almost completely disappeared” during OTAs
one season after it had become the norm for him to throw three
or four per practice. Last but not least, Manning’s
arm strength has improved. OC Ben McAdoo in particular raved
about his offseason dedication, telling
the team’s official website: “Eli has put a lot of time and
effort into his footwork and his training there (as well as) to
his upper body and his strengthening and maintenance in those
types of things. I like the look in his eye right now. His offseason
has been encouraging.”
Aside from the obvious (WR Odell Beckham Jr. continuing to improve
after his brilliant rookie campaign) and the ahead-of-schedule
return of Victor Cruz (patellar tear), part of the reason for
optimism surrounding Manning has to do with his “secondary” targets
in WR Rueben Randle and RB Shane Vereen. Randle, like Manning,
is entering the final year of his contract. The fourth-year wideout
attributed a couple of first-quarter benchings last season to
a “personal issue” that is “over with now” and left a positive
impression heading into the offseason by catching 12 passes for
290 yards and a touchdown in Weeks 16 and 17. “I think Rueben
can be a great receiver, a dominant receiver. … You’ve definitely
seen him from Day 1 to Day Now, just the maturity level is definitely
improved, he’s all in … he’s been here off days, and so been impressed
with his commitment, and I know he’s excited for a big year, wants
to have a big year, and I think he can do that,” Manning said.
Most believed Vereen was brought into the fold to serve just
as a third-down back, but that doesn’t appear to be the case.
The Giants had three or more wide receivers on the field for 65
percent of their first-and-10 plays last year and sought the former
Patriot in free agency because none of their backs had a reception
over 27 yards or scored a receiving touchdown (Vereen had three
of each). "I see him in that regard as a pass receiver coming
out of the backfield, a pass protector, a guy who runs the ball
in the three-wide offense in the run game, if you will, which
is very prevalent today in our sport," HC Tom
Coughlin told NJ.com in late March. Vereen did not disappoint
in offseason practices, “catching pass after pass, in particular
in the red zone”. NJ.com’s Jordan Raanan came away impressed on
at least two occasions, claiming the 26-year-old Cal alum is “not
just going to be a third-down back” and “going
to be a big part of the offense”.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Manning has long not been
a favorite of mine, but McAdoo’s offense (plus the addition of
a dynamic receiver like Beckham) appears to have revitalized him.
It would be stunning at this point if Manning, who has never missed
a start since taking over for Kurt Warner midway through the 2004
season, doesn’t finish among the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks with
the weapons he now has in his arsenal. Randle can’t be expected
to pick up where he left off at the end of 2014, but he should
be the clear No. 2 option in the passing game if Cruz struggles
to find his old form, as I expect he will this season. It is always
a good sign when the quarterback, not the receiver himself, is
sold on him being “locked in”. Randle has an excellent chance
to outperform his 12th-round ADP. For most of his pro
career, Vereen’s biggest hurdle has been staying on the field.
If he can do that like he did last year, I like him to be the
most productive PPR back in the Giants’ backfield.
Philadelphia
In 2014, Jordan Matthews was in the slot 92 percent of his snaps,
Jeremy Maclin 21 percent and Riley Cooper 11 percent. In 2013,
Jason Avant was there 78 percent of his time, DeSean Jackson 26
percent and Cooper 18 percent. Why does this matter? It would
seem that of the reasons why the Eagles selected USC WR Nelson
Agholor at No. 20 in April’s draft was due to his ability to play
both outside and in the slot. Based on CSN
Philly Geoff Mosher’s observations during the spring, Agholor
shouldn’t expect to see more than a quarter of his snaps inside
this season. Mosher suggested Matthews’ size and lack of elite
outside speed make him an ideal slot receiver and that he has
been in that role in most three-wide formations the Eagles have
run in the offseason. Agholor has been “as
advertised” this spring, that is, a “shifty athlete with good
hands who plays hard” (in the words of Philly Mag: Birds 24/7).
Tight end is not a position where players typically dominate
in Year 1 or even Year 2. Still, the offseason hype surrounding
Zach Ertz – especially last year – was substantial enough to make
the fact he has caught 94 passes for 1,171 yards and seven touchdowns
seem like he has somehow been a disappointment thus far. Among
active tight ends, only Rob Gronkowski (1,873), Jimmy Graham (1,866),
Antonio Gates (1,353) and Jason Witten (1,327) had as many yards
receiving as Ertz in their first two seasons, which only proves
the bar has been set a bit too high for him thus far. There have
been several reasons for his delayed breakout, such as the need
to develop his blocking skills, the team’s love for fellow TE
Brent Celek and relative lack of playing time (50.3 of the team’s
offensive snaps last year), mostly due to the first two factors.
Agholor cannot be expected to replace Maclin’s 2014 production
by himself as a rookie and it seems unreasonable to expect players
like Josh Huff and Miles Austin to get the leftover production.
Ertz is taking
care of his end of the deal as well. The third-year pro worked
with legendary retired offensive line coach Hudson Houck for two
weeks in the offseason. He picked the brain of future Hall-of-Fame
TE Tony Gonzalez on the importance of preparation and tenacity.
Ertz also spent a month focusing on strength training, another
on circuit training and additional time on mixed martial arts
training. His hands
don’t appear to be any worse for wear either.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Very few rookie receivers
are handed starting jobs, but there
are some that believe Agholor will be an exception. When asked
to compare
and contrast Maclin and the rookie, HC Chip Kelly called Kansas
City’s new top receiver an "outside, down-the-line receiver" and
Agholor an "inside, outside guy”, so perhaps the ex-Trojan will
see a bit more time in the slot after all. Be that as it may,
Agholor’s versatility is almost certain to keep him on the field
and, in Kelly’s offense, that is a very good thing. He should
be at worst a WR3 in all scoring formats. Here are some more notable
facts about Ertz: 1) Eagles’ quarterbacks overthrew Ertz 18 percent
of the last year and 24.7
percent of his targets were uncatchable, 2) he had a drop
rate of 2.2 percent, fifth-lowest among tight ends and 3) he finished
12th in receptions and 11th in yards despite playing more than
300 fewer snaps than the average of the league's top 12 tight
ends. Assuming QB Sam Bradford can stay healthy (first and foremost)
and display the same accuracy that once made him such a sought-after
quarterback, Ertz ‘s floor should be roughly 70 catches with the
potential for much more. Sad as it may seem, the reason his offseason
commitment to working out with Houck and Gonzalez is so notable
is because not enough young players do it. There may be some disappointing
weeks again with Ertz this season (especially in the games in
which the running game is really working), but I expect him to
fulfill the hype this season and become a top-five fantasy player
at his position.
Seattle
There is no shortage of storylines coming out of the Pacific Northwest
as QB Russell Wilson waits for a contract extension, the Legion
of Boom races against the clock in order to get to 100 percent
before the start of the season and TE Jimmy Graham adapts to his
new role as a blocker. (All kidding aside on the Graham bit, Pro
Football Focus ranked him 15th among tight ends in
run-blocking last year.) However, none of those issues directly
affects the majority of fantasy players outside of IDP leagues,
so we’ll instead focus our attention on an undrafted free agent
who caught the eye of HC Pete Carroll during the spring at a position
that doesn’t appear to have room for another player. RB Thomas
Rawls hasn’t
been an angel off the field to say the least, but got a lot
of field time during the offseason program because Marshawn Lynch
skipped voluntary workouts, Robert Turbin continued his rehab
from hip surgery and Christine Michael nursed a hamstring injury.
"(Rawls) was a real bright spot. … I thought he really jumped
out at us and he was very consistent, worked throughout the whole
thing knowing that his best, maybe most exciting dimension, hasn’t
even been seen yet. He had a great camp for us. It’ll be really
fun to see him when we start playing ball," Carroll
told the team’s official site at the end of camp.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction:Despite missing four games
in 2014 (two due to suspension after getting charged with three
felonies, one for academic issues and one with a knee injury),
Rawls (5-9, 215) ran for 1,103 yards in his only season at Central
Michigan, putting together one impressive three-week stretch during
the middle of the season in which he turned 112 attempts into
666 yards and five TDs. Carroll called him a “real head-knocker”
whose college film showed “play after play of (him) just smacking
people and running and breaking tackles”. Obviously, Rawls is
a consideration for the dynasty crowd only and still has to make
the 53-man roster, but it is hard not to get optimistic about
his chances after Carroll spoke about him in such glowing terms.
It may not happen for him in Seattle with its horde of running
backs, but keep his name in mind as a dynasty stash should he
resurface on a team with a bigger need at the position. Rawls
needs to clean up his life off the field (most likely the reason
he didn’t get drafted in the fifth or sixth round), but he loves
to take the fight to the opponent and is the type of powerful
runner that is always in demand in the NFL.
San
Francisco
The 49ers entered the offseason with an eye on stretching the
field more often in 2015. They reinforced that desire in free
agency (WRs Torrey Smith and Jerome Simpson) and in the draft
(WR DeAndre Smelter). The change in philosophy may have the greatest
effect on TE Vernon Davis, who became a virtual afterthought in
the offense last year after scoring twice in Week 1. Davis’ 26
catches were his worst since his rookie year in 2006 and his two
receiving scores matched the worst of his career while his 245
receiving yards and 9.4 YPC were career lows. “It was just game
planning. And nothing really ever opened up. But I wasn’t really
ever a factor in the offense last year. ... The first game, yeah.
But the second game, the tight ends (weren’t) really involved
as a whole,” Davis
told the Sacramento Bee. To that end, San Francisco hired
Tony Sparano to coach the position. The team has also put a focus
on running the ball and involving the tight ends this spring after
tinkering with multiple wide receiver sets last offseason. New
HC Jim Tomsula has liked what he has seen from Davis thus far.
"Vernon is stretching the field. Vernon looks extremely fast (and
is) catching the ball really well," Tomsula told the Bee in early
June.
Going deep more often is great in theory, but a team needs a
quarterback with a strong (and accurate) enough arm to make it
a sustainable approach. Colin Kaepernick spent 10 weeks at the
beginning of the offseason in Arizona working on his mechanics
with private quarterback coach Dennis Gile. (For some video and
a detailed explanation of what Gile changed in regards to Kaepernick’s
delivery, click
here. Believe me, it is noticeable.) The only quarterback
in FBS history for over 10,000 yards and rushed for over 4,000
yards also spent about one day a week on the mental aspect of
the game with two-time NFL MVP Kurt Warner. However, if we are
to believe Tomsula’s words from February, the biggest change for
Kaepernick will be an emphasis on utilizing his “total
package”. “He’s got to be able to make plays with his arm
and our quarterback can. Colin can make plays with his arm. …
We want to utilize the total package. Does that mean he is going
to be the leading rusher every week? No. … Let’s use everything
we have – like we have done. Let’s not act like that hasn’t happened,
either,” Tomsula told CSN Bay Area.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Former HC Jim Harbaugh didn’t
do much wrong in four years as the man in charge, but it could
be argued that one of his biggest failings was an inability to
make Davis – one of the game’s fastest and most athletic tight
ends – a dominant force year in and year out. The additions of
Smith in particular should lead to several more big plays for
Davis since one would have to assume new OC Geep Chryst will be
smart enough to put him and Smith on the same side of the field
and force the safety to make a choice. While a repeat of his 13
TDs from 2013 seems unlikely, Davis is still more than capable
of meeting or exceeding the 52 receptions and 850 yards he had
that season. Owners should not be surprised if he returns to top-10
status at his position this fall. It will be interesting to see
if the mechanical tweaks Kaepernick made to his delivery will
stick in live action, but the best way to describe the change
is to say he’s went from an over-the-top motion to more of a push
throw reminiscent of Philip Rivers. As is the case with the San
Diego signal-caller, a wider stance, shorter stride and more compact
throwing motion should allow for greater accuracy. If the changes
talk hold and the new staff is successful in getting Kaepernick
to run when the situation dictates it, there is huge fantasy upside
with him. The former Nevada standout is available in the 12th
round – a pretty small price for a player with the potential to
finish among the top five fantasy players at his position.
St.
Louis
Lost somewhere between a possible move to Los Angeles in the next
year or so and the questionable return date of No. 10 overall
pick RB Todd Gurley is the degree to which QB Nick Foles has made
himself a part of the Rams’ locker room. “He’s everything that
you want in a quarterback – everything that you’ve always wanted.
It just feels like he belongs here and it feels like he’s been
here for a while, which is a good piece. It’s what we need,” TE
Jared Cook told the
team’s official website in early June. WR Kenny Britt has
been impressed as well. “Our chemistry has been great since Day
1. … He has a touch, he has a sense of when to put a little bit
of touch on it and when to throw it in there with his fastball.
But he can throw it all,” Britt told the
team’s official website in early June. HC Jeff Fisher has
not been disappointed either, praising the leadership and take-charge
attitude Foles has shown since arriving from Philadelphia in the
Bradford trade.
St. Louis is going to incorporate more zone-blocking into its
offense than it ever has under Fisher and will focus more than
ever on the short passing game, perhaps in part to accentuate
Gurley’s big-play ability with the former and keep Foles upright
with the latter. One player who could potentially help both Gurley
and Foles do their jobs more efficiently is WR Tavon Austin, who
was horribly misused (and underutilized) by former OC Brian Schottenheimer.
New OC Frank Cignetti has compared what he is doing to Schottenheimer’s
offense as “remodeling a couple of rooms” after Schottenheimer
essentially “bought the house”. Austin probably shouldn’t have
been expected to do great things considering he played his college
football in West Virginia’s pure spread offense and never had
a full season to gel with Bradford, but one has to wonder how
a receiver who is in some ways similar to the Colts’ T.Y. Hilton
ends up with more rushing attempts (36) than receptions (31) like
he did last year. To his credit, Austin
has impressed Cignetti this spring. “Tavon Austin’s had a
great offseason. … He’s learning. He’s paying attention. He’s
bringing it to the practice field. You just see it from his route-running.
What a difference. His effort, his attention to details. Every
day out there, the guy’s made plays,” Cignetti said.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Outside of RB Tre Mason early
in the season (assuming Gurley starts out the season on the PUP
list) and Gurley after he returns (same assumption), it is hard
to imagine many owners moving mountains in order to start Rams’
players in fantasy. The Year 1 goal for Foles will almost certainly
be to let the running game and defense do their jobs and limit
mistakes – not a recipe for fantasy glory. As such, it is hard
to imagine he’ll be anything more than a bye-week filler in most
leagues. If Schottenheimer’s greatest success was turning Mark
Sanchez into a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2011 with the Jets,
then it is quite possible his greatest failure was his inability
to utilize the playmaking ability of Austin, who drew some comparisons
to a lighter and less physical Percy Harvin coming out of college.
This is not to say Austin will ever completely justify the No.
8 overall pick in the 2013 draft, but he has enough speed and
open-field ability to be much more than the gadget player, which
is pretty much the role he served under Schottenheimer. Austin
will and should go undrafted in all but the deepest leagues, but
keep him on your watch list this year. WR Brian Quick hinted at
a
more creative offense in 2015, which is par for the course
in regards to offseason talk. Of course, Schottenheimer’s offense
was often so vanilla, it isn’t hard to believe “major” changes
will be made. Any such changes will almost certainly involve a
heavier dose of Austin, who can line up outside, in the slot and
out of the backfield on occasion.
Tampa
Bay
Once upon a time, RB Doug Martin was the toast of the town and
among the most valuable commodities in fantasy football. Unfortunately
for him, the last two years happened. Coaches often say competition
brings out the best in their players and that appears to be the
case with the beleaguered fourth-year pro, who has rushed for
a total of 950 yards and three scores over the last two seasons
after exploding for 1,454 yards and 11 TDs as a rookie. Martin
told the team’s official website he dropped
his body fat percentage down about five percent and regained
the weight in muscle, thus maintaining his regular playing weight.
The Tampa Tribune came away impressed, stating he is enjoying
his best offseason in three years. Martin is fighting for
his NFL life in a sense (at least in Tampa) as he enters a contract
year and can’t be expected to cash in if he turns in another injury-plagued
and/or ineffective season. “He’s on the first team like he has
always been. He’s one of our guys, he’s our running back. He’s
showing up and getting good work. I think it is just as simple
as that,” HC Lovie Smith told Pewter Report in early June.
In case owners needed another reason to like WR Mike Evans to
repeat or improve upon 2014, he worked out with Randy Moss for
a week at the end of March. The reason working out with Moss is
notable is because Patriots HC Bill Belichick was among several
that considered him among the smartest players in the NFL during
his playing days, so any nuances that Evans can pick up from another
big receiver and use moving forward should allow him to build
on a spectacular rookie campaign. After playing last season as
the “Z” receiver in what was supposed to be Jeff Tedford’s system
(and ended up becoming Marcus Arroyo’s offense), Evans will switch
roles with Vincent Jackson. The ex-Charger will take over at Evans
at “Z” and is expected
to see more time in the slot this year (142 of his 582 routes
he ran last year were in the slot, per Pro Football Focus). New
OC Dirk Koetter had somewhat similar personnel over the last few
years in Atlanta, getting per-game averages of 6.2 catches, 93.6
yards and 0.5 touchdowns from Julio Jones at the “X” and 5.3/67.8/0.39
from Roddy White at the slot/Z.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: It is understandable when
owners pretty much choose to ignore a player that has burned them
in consecutive years. With that said, Martin (ADP of 8.1 in standard
and 9.3 in PPR) is still a lead back in an offense that should
be getting better offensive line play as well as an upgrade at
quarterback and offensive coordinator. Combine that with a player
who is in contract year and properly motivated by competition
on his own roster (most notably Charles Sims) and it would seem
there is potential for a huge bounce-back season. Bear in mind
that Sims will probably steal significant passing-down snaps.
Still, it isn’t often when owners can secure a potential 200-plus
carry back as a RB4, so his current ADP makes him something of
a low-risk, high-reward option for the first time in his career.
Evans should be a lock to go among the first 10 receivers in just
about every draft and, given his size (6-5, 231) and ball skills,
a pretty good bet to post another double-digit touchdown season.
Jackson’s numbers dropped across the board last year, but how
much of that was due to the instability at quarterback in an Arroyo-run
offense? His two receiving touchdowns were well off his career
norm, but he still finished with 70 receptions and 1,000 receiving
yards for the third time in as many years as a Buc. Using Jackson
more often in the slot should allow him to benefit from a number
of mismatches and bring his numbers back up to about where they
were in 2012 and 2013. Evans will be the clear No. 1 option, but
I tend to believe Jackson will be a very good WR3 and a solid
value, especially at his current ADP (6.10 in standard, 6.6 in
PPR).
Washington
It is hard to recall a recent third-round rookie RB – especially
one that was generally overlooked when discussing other backs
in his class – generating more buzz in the first 2-3 weeks after
the draft than Matt Jones did in May. New GM Scot McCloughan,
who was the Seahawks’ senior personnel executive when they traded
for Marshawn Lynch in 2010, got
the hype train started in the right direction when he compared
Jones to the media darling of the past two Super Bowls. Days later,
second-year HC Jay Gruden offered a “We’ll see” when asked if
Jones could potentially cut into the workload of Alfred Morris.
While Gruden did follow with an “Alfred is a darn good halfback”,
coaches usually are more reluctant when discussing a rookie’s
chances of threatening an established veteran’s workload. A week
later, CSN Washington’s Tarik El-Bashir speculated the Florida
product would have "a
bigger role in 2015 than some are anticipating" while Washington
Post beat writer Mike Jones said Gruden told him the No. 95 overall
selection has shown “more
versatility than they expected when they drafted him”.
Most people expected a slight regression from WR Pierre Garcon
last summer once DeSean Jackson fell into the Redskins’ lap, but
very few could have imagined his production would fall by 45 catches
and 594 yards. Although Gruden told CSN Washington in March the
decline in production “just comes with playing (wide receiver)
with three quarterbacks” and the quarterback turnover “hurt all
the receivers”, he intends to get Garcon’s “numbers
back up a little bit” in 2015. It appears part of Gruden’s
plan to accomplish this feat includes flip-flopping
the roles of Garcon and Jackson in his offense, with the former
taking over at “Z” (Jackson’s spot last year and usually the featured
receiver in Gruden’s offense) and the latter moving over to the
“X” (Garcon’s position last year). In late June, the Redskins
reiterated their desire to make Garcon a priority. “Can’t say
enough good things about him. He’s a pro’s pro — a guy you model
your game after if you’re a young pro. … You watch him work; you
process the game — or try to process the game the way he does.
The consummate pro,” WR
coach Ike Hilliard told the Washington Post.
TE Jordan Reed flashed a ton of potential in nine games under
former HC Mike Shanahan in 2013, but has seen his two-year NFL
career marred by concussions and hamstring pulls, which have led
to 12 missed games. He’s supposedly on track for camp this summer
after undergoing a knee procedure in the spring. In his stead,
backup Niles Paul showed up “noticeably
bigger” and pushed himself over 250 pounds in an effort to
become a better blocker without “losing any of his speed”. ESPN’s
John Keim went so far as to say that Paul is “a
different player” and “when you talk to coaches, it’s clear
that he’s been one of the most impressive players this spring”.
While accounting for the possibility that Paul’s emergence was
a spring mirage, Keim went on to say that he’s taken little steps
in each of the past three years on a weakness and seen improvement
each time.
Late-June Fantasy Reaction: Jones will have difficulty stealing
much early-down work from Morris, who has yet to miss a game and
rushed for at least 1,000 yards in each of his three NFL seasons.
McCloughan’s comparisons to Lynch notwithstanding, Jones figures
to fill the role left behind by Roy Helu Jr. – he should far exceed
Helu’s 40 carries from a season ago – and serve as the primary passing-down
back since Morris is average at best as a receiver out of the backfield.
Jones should be considered the primary handcuff to Morris and stands
to be a valuable one at that for a team that should run the ball
well behind a front five coached by one of the best offensive line
coaches in the game in Bill Callahan. Given Morris’ durability,
the Gator alum is a later-round option. However, he is a much better
investment in dynasty leagues since Morris’ contract is up at the
end of the season. In 2013, Washington was a team that had little
choice but to force-feed Garcon the ball. In 2014, the pendulum
swung way too far in the other direction as the team probably felt
somewhat compelled to keep Jackson happy and played musical chairs
at quarterback. Expect Garcon to find the happy between his 113-catch
2013 and his 68-catch 2014 this season. He’s a dynamic after-the-catch
player who should finish around 80 receptions assuming good health
and reasonable stability under center. He’s a steal at his current
ADP (late-ninth round in PPR, mid-10th in standard) and
should be a consistent WR3 option in all leagues. Paul isn’t even
on the board in 15-round drafts (according to Fantasy Football Calculator),
but expect that to change as we roll into August. Between Reed’s
injury history and Paul’s likely improvement as a blocker, he’s
going to see the field more often this season (585 of the team’s
1,095 offensive snaps a season ago) and may just end up taking Reed’s
job outright. He stands a very good chance at being fantasy-relevant
at some point this season and should at least be a viable TE2.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010.
He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football
internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.