The process of improving at one’s craft is – or should be – an endeavor that never truly ends.

It has occurred to me over the years that I typically win the waiver wire in most of my leagues, no matter how high the stakes have been. There are exceptions, of course, especially when injuries and/or suspensions strike quickly and leave more holes in a roster than an owner can realistically expect to fill in a short period of time. So why change a good thing? Quite simply, because the old way – while still successful – wasn’t delivering the results I had become accustomed to in the first few years of the Big Board era. During this past offseason, I have come to believe that my slow starts are mostly a function of not doing a good enough job of taking the best player on the board or the one I believe in the most and my fast finishes are largely the result of my ability to recognize talent. In theory, if I can spot identify a player like C.J. Anderson or even Branden Oliver before anyone else does, I should rarely be in a position where I need to insert them into my lineup immediately, right? In case you couldn’t tell, my self-congratulatory praise above isn’t so much a humble brag as it is an indictment that I haven’t done the best job of practicing what I preach when setting up the Big Boards.

One of my biggest shortcomings in recent years has been overvaluing opportunity, especially as it relates to the running back position. Opportunity means something entirely different for someone like Adrian Peterson than it does for Toby Gerhart or Zac Stacy. Opportunity for Peterson means he may go from 325 carries to 375 (just throwing numbers out there, folks). Opportunity for Gerhart and Stacy last year meant each player was going to start Week 1 and on a very short leash. It was for reasons like that (and others) that I wanted to revamp the way I evaluated fantasy players in 2015. You have already seen some of the changes (such as the four-game projections versus the full-season projections of yesteryear) and some are behind the scenes that you won’t get to see due to lack of column space.

Long story short, the behind-the-scenes work involved meticulously grading and assigning certain weights to several attributes that I feel are critical to fantasy success at that position. The end result of that work is the eighth column in each of my Big Boards this year: success score (SS). Without giving away too much of the formula, talent was the No. 1 attribute at each position and job security also appeared at all four positions, getting more of the percentage at running back than at any other position. Why? Some of the more notable reasons are because it is a position that experiences a ton of turnover and also because it is a position where coaches do not hesitate to “ride the hot hand”, sometimes with little to no provocation.

Although I expect to tweak the system (as in adjusting the percentage weights I have assigned at each position) over the coming weeks and years, I believe I have something worth keeping here. I will also place a higher priority on pushing players up the board that I really believe in. Fantasy football is fun when your team is winning, but winning with a group of players that you believed in on draft day and taking the bulk of that team to a fantasy title makes it extra special. I plan on bringing back the “Value” column for my final set of Big Boards in two weeks because I think it does a good job of quantifying certain things like how much “value” a quarterback loses when the scoring format goes from six points per passing touchdown to four points or how tightly bunched a certain position group is.

I’m not going to pretend as if I have accounted for every possibility. It’s an impossible task in a sport that features 11 men on each side of the ball trying to work in perfect harmony. In case you hadn’t noticed, it rarely ever happens and breakdowns occur on virtually every play.

Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about two key points:

1) I doubt you will find another draft board like this one and further doubt you will find a similar set of rankings anywhere else. The standard the industry uses to measure accuracy among analysts is overall scoring, but I am more concerned with projected consistency and matchups. Consistency tends to lead to big fantasy numbers at the end of the season and championships while inconsistency and bad matchups at the wrong time usually lead to frustration. Someday, I hope the industry catches on to my way of thinking. Until then, I’ll try to win as many titles as possible and help you do the same.

2 ) Much like the past three seasons, I want to provide readers with a clear risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, you will see a next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board, you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance to frustrate you at some point this season.

Note: For this first set of Big Boards, I have chosen to stop at 150 players. Next week, I will release my first Big Boards for 0.5 PPR leagues as well as The Fantasy Championship and FFPC Big Boards I promised last week. In the final set of Big Boards in two weeks, I will rank 200 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..

Quarterback – Talent, job security, four-game stat projection, red-zone projection (how often I believe the quarterback will either throw or run the ball himself inside the 20) and the degree to which I believe his offense is conservative or will play that way because of an elite defense.

Running back – Talent, job security, durability, four-game stat projection, three-down back (based on projected snaps) and the run-blocking prowess of his offensive line.

Wide receiver – Talent, job security, four-game stat projection and projected red-zone scores.

Tight end – Talent, job security, projected red-zone scores and projected targets in relation to his peers at the position.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the non-PPR format:

One final note: Over the next two weeks, I will be “quality controlling” my projections (basically double-checking my numbers, such as not having one defense projected to intercept 15 passes through four games while another has just one), so my next set of Big Boards (in two weeks) could look different – particularly at the bottom – than they currently do. As with all things that are worth doing, this process takes time and needs to be constantly revised as more information about depth charts and injuries becomes available. What I can assure you is that my final set of Big Boards will be the most comprehensive draft-day tool anyone in your league will have at their disposal.

Non-PPR Big Board - Top 150 OVR PR Pos Player Risk Tm Age SSI FPts/G FPts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1 1 RB Adrian Peterson MIN 30 907.0 18.3 73.0 2 2 RB Marshawn Lynch SEA 29 900.2 17.8 71.0 3 3 RB C.J. Anderson DEN 24 900.0 18.6 74.5 4 4 RB Le’Veon Bell PIT 23 914.8 15.0 30.0 5 5 RB Jamaal Charles KC 28 886.8 15.4 61.5 6 1 WR Antonio Brown PIT 27 898.6 15.4 61.5 7 6 RB Eddie Lacy GB 25 861.9 13.0 52.0 8 2 WR Demaryius Thomas DEN 27 900.1 14.3 57.0 9 3 WR Dez Bryant DAL 26 900.2 15.3 61.0 10 4 WR Julio Jones ATL 26 894.4 17.1 68.5 11 1 TE Rob Gronkowski NE 26 905.0 11.9 47.5 12 5 WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 22 890.8 14.1 56.5 13 7 RB Jeremy Hill CIN 22 850.6 17.0 68.0 14 6 WR Calvin Johnson DET 29 881.4 13.5 54.0 15 7 WR A.J. Green CIN 27 846.6 12.0 48.0 16 1 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 31 888.0 32.1 128.5 17 2 QB Andrew Luck IND 25 887.0 29.1 116.4 18 8 RB Matt Forte CHI 29 877.9 14.1 56.5 19 8 WR Jordy Nelson GB 30 819.1 14.4 57.5 20 9 RB Justin Forsett BAL 29 843.4 13.4 53.5 21 10 RB LeSean McCoy BUF 27 801.1 14.4 57.5 22 11 RB DeMarco Murray PHI 27 807.6 14.8 59.0 23 9 WR Randall Cobb GB 25 782.7 13.6 54.5 24 10 WR Alshon Jeffery CHI 25 843.7 13.0 52.0 25 11 WR T.Y. Hilton IND 25 758.6 10.9 43.5 26 12 WR Jordan Matthews PHI 23 756.4 9.3 37.0 27 13 WR Kelvin Benjamin CAR 24 743.9 10.5 42.0 28 2 TE Jimmy Graham SEA 28 875.2 10.9 43.5 29 12 RB Frank Gore IND 32 806.7 13.9 55.5 30 13 RB Melvin Gordon SD 22 810.1 14.0 56.0 31 14 RB Lamar Miller MIA 24 799.3 10.0 40.0 32 15 RB Latavius Murray OAK 25 742.6 12.1 48.5 33 14 WR DeAndre Hopkins HOU 23 847.1 13.6 54.5 34 15 WR Mike Evans TB 22 852.4 12.5 50.0 35 16 RB Ameer Abdullah DET 22 790.6 12.5 50.0 36 16 WR Amari Cooper OAK 21 768.8 10.0 40.0 37 17 RB Mark Ingram NO 25 765.6 14.8 59.0 38 17 WR Andre Johnson IND 34 741.5 9.8 39.0 39 3 QB Russell Wilson SEA 26 809.9 28.3 113.2 40 18 RB C.J. Spiller NO 28 771.7 10.5 42.0 41 19 RB Alfred Morris WAS 26 786.7 10.9 43.5 42 20 RB Jonathan Stewart CAR 28 746.7 10.9 43.5 43 3 TE Travis Kelce KC 25 805.8 9.8 39.0 44 4 TE Greg Olsen CAR 30 791.5 9.3 37.0 45 21 RB Joseph Randle DAL 23 759.4 11.9 47.5 46 18 WR Brandon Marshall NYJ 31 736.6 10.4 41.5 47 19 WR Keenan Allen SD 23 731.5 9.5 38.0 48 20 WR Julian Edelman NE 29 732.5 8.4 33.5 49 4 QB Peyton Manning DEN 39 856.6 22.8 91.1 50 5 QB Drew Brees NO 36 835.3 21.2 84.6 51 21 WR Brandin Cooks NO 21 725.2 9.5 38.0 52 22 WR Mike Wallace MIN 29 733.6 11.0 44.0 53 23 WR Jarvis Landry MIA 22 738.1 8.0 32.0 54 24 WR Allen Robinson JAC 22 728.8 9.5 38.0 55 6 QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 33 874.6 24.2 96.8 56 22 RB Carlos Hyde SF 23 681.5 8.0 32.0 57 25 WR Sammy Watkins BUF 22 733.9 8.1 32.5 58 26 WR Golden Tate DET 27 674.6 7.0 28.0 59 23 RB Todd Gurley STL 21 799.3 6.3 25.0 60 24 RB T.J. Yeldon JAC 21 734.0 9.9 39.5 61 25 RB LeGarrette Blount NE 28 661.7 12.0 36.0 62 27 WR Anquan Boldin SF 34 695.0 10.0 40.0 63 28 WR Emmanuel Sanders DEN 28 709.5 7.4 29.5 64 26 RB Joique Bell DET 29 634.3 7.4 29.5 65 27 RB Andre Ellington ARI 26 715.2 11.3 45.0 66 7 QB Eli Manning NYG 34 856.0 21.4 85.4 67 29 WR Martavis Bryant PIT 23 706.0 13.4 53.5 68 30 WR DeSean Jackson WAS 28 676.5 9.9 39.5 69 28 RB Chris Ivory NYJ 27 664.3 9.3 37.0 70 29 RB Doug Martin TB 26 709.9 11.1 44.5 71 31 WR Charles Johnson MIN 26 687.3 7.9 31.5 72 32 WR Steve Johnson SD 29 711.3 9.4 37.5 73 33 WR Roddy White ATL 33 690.1 9.8 39.0 74 34 WR John Brown ARI 25 725.7 10.5 42.0 75 30 RB Danny Woodhead SD 30 698.8 8.9 35.5 76 8 QB Cam Newton CAR 26 821.3 24.5 97.8 77 9 QB Matt Ryan ATL 30 833.7 24.2 96.6 78 31 RB Giovani Bernard CIN 23 652.8 6.6 26.5 79 32 RB Rashad Jennings NYG 30 613.5 10.6 42.5 80 5 TE Martellus Bennett CHI 28 715.5 6.3 25.0 81 35 WR Vincent Jackson TB 32 730.6 10.1 40.5 82 36 WR Steve Smith BAL 36 704.6 9.5 38.0 83 37 WR Nelson Agholor PHI 22 676.4 7.5 30.0 84 10 QB Philip Rivers SD 33 833.3 19.8 79.2 85 38 WR Brandon LaFell NE 28 633.7 6.8 27.0 86 6 TE Vernon Davis SF 31 781.0 9.8 39.0 87 7 TE Jordan Cameron MIA 27 720.8 10.1 40.5 88 11 QB Tony Romo DAL 35 771.9 22.7 90.9 89 12 QB Matthew Stafford DET 27 791.2 18.2 72.6 90 33 RB Shane Vereen NYG 26 630.3 8.5 34.0 91 39 WR Jeremy Maclin KC 27 661.6 7.0 28.0 92 40 WR Pierre Garcon WAS 29 712.5 8.6 34.5 93 13 QB Ryan Tannehill MIA 27 793.6 18.7 74.8 94 41 WR Davante Adams GB 22 670.4 10.6 42.5 95 42 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 32 677.1 8.5 34.0 96 43 WR Eddie Royal CHI 29 636.0 7.0 28.0 97 34 RB Arian Foster HOU 29 780.0 0.0 0.0 98 14 QB Tom Brady NE 38 736.9 0.0 0.0 99 8 TE Tyler Eifert CIN 24 748.1 6.9 27.5 100 15 QB Teddy Bridgewater MIN 22 781.6 20.0 79.8 101 35 RB Tre Mason STL 22 638.7 9.8 39.0 102 36 RB Isaiah Crowell CLE 22 682.3 7.4 29.5 103 37 RB Alfred Blue HOU 24 618.5 10.6 42.5 104 16 QB Sam Bradford PHI 27 748.4 18.8 75.1 105 9 TE Delanie Walker TEN 31 706.8 7.0 28.0 106 17 QB Colin Kaepernick SF 27 775.4 21.3 85.1 107 38 RB Ryan Mathews PHI 27 616.0 7.6 30.5 108 39 RB Tevin Coleman ATL 22 618.0 8.4 33.5 109 44 WR Breshad Perriman BAL 21 670.5 9.8 39.0 110 45 WR Rueben Randle NYG 24 702.9 9.8 39.0 111 40 RB Duke Johnson CLE 21 682.7 9.4 37.5 112 10 TE Antonio Gates SD 35 625.8 0.0 0.0 113 46 WR Brian Quick STL 26 632.5 7.8 31.0 114 47 WR Michael Floyd ARI 25 652.1 7.8 23.5 115 48 WR Terrance Williams DAL 25 621.7 8.3 33.0 116 11 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN 25 746.6 8.8 35.0 117 12 TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 22 659.9 4.4 17.5 118 49 WR Kendall Wright TEN 25 694.7 9.0 36.0 119 50 WR Eric Decker NYJ 28 681.5 7.5 30.0 120 51 WR DeVante Parker MIA 22 562.9 4.3 17.0 121 52 WR Victor Cruz NYG 28 575.9 3.6 14.5 122 13 TE Jason Witten DAL 33 675.5 6.3 25.0 123 41 RB Devonta Freeman ATL 23 618.8 7.8 31.0 124 14 TE Julius Thomas JAC 27 674.8 5.8 23.0 125 42 RB Reggie Bush SF 30 614.5 7.3 29.0 126 43 RB Knile Davis KC 23 648.5 6.9 27.5 127 15 TE Zach Ertz PHI 24 699.5 6.1 24.5 128 53 WR Torrey Smith SF 26 615.8 7.4 29.5 129 54 WR Marques Colston NO 32 594.0 5.8 23.0 130 44 RB David Cobb TEN 22 581.6 5.3 21.0 131 16 TE Owen Daniels DEN 32 598.8 7.0 28.0 132 55 WR Markus Wheaton PIT 24 549.1 6.3 25.0 133 18 QB Carson Palmer ARI 35 797.8 20.6 82.4 134 17 TE Josh Hill NO 25 648.2 4.6 18.5 135 19 QB Andy Dalton CIN 27 679.7 19.0 76.0 136 20 QB Jay Cutler CHI 32 689.3 18.8 75.2 137 45 RB Matt Jones WAS 22 589.9 6.5 26.0 138 46 RB Darren McFadden DAL 28 509.8 7.4 29.5 139 47 RB Andre Williams NYG 23 488.7 3.3 13.0 140 48 RB James White NE 23 533.7 4.4 17.5 141 49 RB Bishop Sankey TEN 22 677.6 7.5 30.0 142 18 TE Dwayne Allen IND 25 584.2 6.3 25.0 143 56 WR Michael Crabtree OAK 27 619.5 7.8 31.0 144 50 RB Roy Helu OAK 26 605.4 5.8 23.0 145 51 RB Montee Ball DEN 24 586.9 5.4 21.5 146 52 RB Chris Johnson ARI 29 588.9 6.1 24.5 147 57 WR Donte Moncrief IND 22 553.3 5.6 22.5 148 58 WR Devin Funchess CAR 21 581.2 5.6 22.5 149 59 WR Doug Baldwin SEA 26 576.4 6.5 26.0 150 60 WR Brandon Coleman NO 23 506.2 3.8 15.0

Top 25: I imagine the most eye-catching part of my initial top 25 figures to be the relatively low rankings of DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy. I have zero confidence Murray will: 1) last the entire season, 2) not feel the effects of coming off such a high-usage season if he somehow makes it through all 16 games again and 3) not cede more carries to Ryan Mathews than many expect. In regards to McCoy, you’ll get no argument from me he is (was?) one of the most elusive runners of his generation. HC Rex Ryan and OC Greg Roman have talked up McCoy’s abilities as a receiver and even suggested he could become the third back to post 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in league history, but Roman’s history with another very capable receiving back in Frank Gore in another conservative offense suggests otherwise. Both backs (Murray and McCoy) are what I like to classify as “RB1/2” on my final set of Big Boards. In other words, I feel both will be capable RB1s for owners that go with a receiver in the first round, but more ideally suited to be RB2s for owners that want the satisfaction that comes along with locking up two backs that are likely to surpass 250 carries.

26-50: My high ranking of Gore depends heavily on the Colts utilizing him as their primary goal-line back. Assuming a high touchdown total for a running back on a pass-heavy team is a dangerous assumption to make, so I can understand any owner that doesn’t want to bet on the aging Gore or the Indianapolis offensive line holding up its end of the deal. I’m also less than thrilled about putting much trust into a 32-year-old back that has accumulated so many carries during his long NFL career. Ultimately, I expect the Colts to find a way to keep him productive all season long, whether that means he gets the Ahmad Bradshaw treatment in the passing game on the days when the run isn’t working or scores a pair of short-yardage touchdowns on the days when the Colts don’t need to run the ball much.

One of the best trades I made during the middle of last season in my most important league was trading Mike Wallace (along with Eddie Lacy) right around my league’s trade deadline in Week 8 as part of a six-player deal to acquire Le’Veon Bell. At the point of the season, it was becoming obvious Wallace’s fantasy value was abnormally touchdown-dependent. I mention that story here because I wonder if Mike Evans won’t disappoint a bit this season. Somehow, the Bucs are going to have to find a way to bump up Evans’ 123 targets from a season ago while also making sure to keep Vincent Jackson involved and utilizing Austin Seferian-Jenkins more often in the red zone. Never mind the likelihood that Tampa Bay is likely to field a conservative offense initially to protect rookie QB Jameis Winton and its less-than-stellar defense. I have no question Evans is the real deal; I do question the Bucs’ ability and willingness to pepper him with targets each and every game.

51-100: One player I am certain I will not be drafting over the next few weeks is Emmanuel Sanders. Yes, it is never a good idea to bet against a receiver in a Peyton Manning-led offense, but someone is going to take a hit in production as the Broncos move to a more balanced offense and my bet is that player will be Sanders. One of the best arguments in favor of Sanders suggests that with Julius Thomas no longer around, there are plenty of targets to be had to make up for the potential loss of overall pass attempts. I would argue that the combination of Owen Daniels and Virgil Green will combine for more targets than Thomas. The Broncos should also play with the lead more often than not, further cutting into his potential production. The ex-Steeler’s late-third round ADP (according to Fantasy Football Calculator) suggest owners expect him to finish with around 80 catches, 1000-plus yards and 6-8 touchdowns. I'd be willing to bet that is his absolute ceiling in 2015 and I have yet to mention that Denver wants to get Cody Latimer more involved as well. Demaryius Thomas and his $14 M per year contract isn’t coming off the field unless he needs a blow and the Broncos plan on utilizing more two-tight formations than they have in the past. Add it all together and the odds are stacked against Sanders coming anywhere close to the standard he set last season.

101-150: More than anything, I watch all the preseason games I do in hopes that a handful of players will either show marked improvement from the season before or that some player on the roster bubble will deliver the kind of performance that makes it impossible for the coaching staff not to take notice. I saw the former over the weekend from Alfred Blue, who looked considerably lighter on his feet than he did as a rookie. I’m not suggesting he is on the verge of operating as the Texans’ feature back while Arian Foster rehabs from groin surgery, but I’m betting he will break more than one run for longer than 21 yards (he had one such run on 169 carries last year) and average more than 3.1 YPC. Blue is not overly athletic or explosive, but his offseason work showed up in Houston’s exhibition opener. A week ago, I would completely dismissed the notion that Blue was going to be the Texans’ lead back for the first half of the season. Now, I think there is a realistic chance of that happening. Chris Polk and perhaps Jonathan Grimes could end up playing key roles on passing downs, but I saw enough over the weekend to convince me Houston is in capable hands with Blue as the early-down thumper.

Since I suggested that I have no faith in DeMarco Murray staying healthy all season, it follows that I would have a fairly high opinion of the back that would step in for him in his absence – Ryan Mathews. Obviously, I know better than to believe Mathews would take the fantasy world by storm, effortlessly handling 20-plus carries per game in Chip Kelly’s offense in such a scenario. However, a regular dose of 8-10 touches when Murray is healthy and the promise of potentially 2-4 games as a featured back when Murray is sidelined makes Mathews worth an eighth- or ninth-round investment.

Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman each had a grand opportunity to seize control of the Atlanta backfield in training camp, but the hamstring epidemic that has wiped out their depth chart has made it a virtual certainty the duo will begin the season splitting carries. It’s a shame too, since a lead back in a Kyle Shanahan offense is almost always worth investing in for fantasy purposes. Coleman’s big-play potential should still make him the favorite, although it is fair to wonder if his physical running style will allow him to stay healthy for any length of time at the pro level.

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