The NFL stops for no man and we will be reminded of that once again
in a few days when Week 6 action begins and Jamaal
Charles is not on the field, unable to play more than five games
for the second time in five seasons due to another ACL injury. In
the three years between his injury-shortened seasons, Charles has
continued to polish what is shaping up to be a Hall-of-Fame resume
and consistently produced like few others ever have. The four-time
Pro Bowler and two-time first-team All-Pro selection ends this season
averaging 5.5 yards per carry over his career, which is the best
mark by any player with at least 1,000 carries in NFL history.
Needless to say, neither the Kansas City Chiefs nor fantasy owners
can expect to find Charles’ replacement the season and to
suggest otherwise would be irresponsible. With that said, the
fantasy season also stops for no one, no matter how important
that person or player may be to the fabric of the current game.
Owners of the No. 2 overall running back in PPR and standard
leagues looking for some kind of relief can be comforted by the
fact that a handful of late-round or undrafted running backs are
among the leading scorers at their position through five weeks.
Devonta
Freeman, Dion
Lewis, Theo
Riddick, David
Johnson, Chris
Johnson and Charles
Sims are among the backs that were neglected on draft day
that find themselves among the top 20 in PPR scoring. Of course,
most of those players are already owned. That doesn’t change the
one constant in fantasy football: there will be change and turnover
and new stars will emerge.
Like any NFL team that suffers a season-ending injury at any
position, the first place to look is in-house. Fortunately for
the Chiefs, they have at least two options that appear enticing.
Unfortunately for owners, two suitable options means one giant
headache when it comes to feeling good about which one is the
best for them to fill their new void at running back. While the
majority of this piece will be devoted to distraught Charles owners
and how they can potentially overcome the loss of their first-round
draft pick, the larger focus will be for any owner in need of
immediate help at the running back position. Much like Kansas
City will, I’ll begin by assessing the in-house options
first:
West could command 60% or more of the snaps.
Charcandrick
West - By now, you’ve
become very familiar with the 2014 undrafted rookie free agent
out of Abilene Christian whose first name can hurt your brain
at first glance; he’s also a player I highlighted as a “buy” last
week. The folks at arrowheadpride.com did a
fantastic write-up on West during the preseason as well. As
I tend to do with any free agent I plan on investing heavily in,
I watch all of his touches leading up to this point – including
the preseason. Here are some of my impressions:
Likely the least explosive and slowest of the Chiefs’ top
three backs (hardly an insult considering the athleticism of Charles
and Knile
Davis) – although he has enough of both – that hasn’t shown
a knack for beating NFL linebackers/safeties to the edge yet,
but is a decisive one-cut runner that plays with more toughness
than some might expect from a 205-pound small-school back. Very
little wasted motion, which makes him an efficient runner. Probably
isn’t going to “wow” with multiple big runs every game, yet is
more than a sustainer that possesses the vision to cut back when
the weak-side defensive end or linebacker is undisciplined and/or
crashes down too quickly. Can make the first defender miss and
has a nice little jump-cut, but isn’t the type that’s going to
make multiple defenders miss very often. Has shown the ability
to adjust to a poorly-thrown ball and possesses reliable hands
in the flat. Better inside than outside runner at the moment.
Kansas City HC Andy Reid likes West in part because he shares
many of the same qualities as Charles and doesn’t have to
change the playbook in order to get him his touches. Suffice it
to say that while it is easy to tell the difference between the
two players, it’s also easy to figure out how he has endeared
himself to Reid so quickly.
Knile
Davis – I would’ve considered it a longshot at best
if someone would’ve told me before the start of the season that
Davis could be unseated as Charles’ primary backup. I’m fairly
certain now after watching the two backs play on NFL Game Pass
and reviewing offensive snap percentages that West is the clear
lead horse in this race. Davis’ size probably makes him the frontrunner
for short-yardage and goal-line opportunities initially, but I
wouldn’t necessarily call that a given. I think there is a legitimate
chance West could command 60 percent or more of the snaps in relatively
short order. Owners making a move for Davis this week should probably
expect him to be more of a handcuff whose value would skyrocket
should West be sidelined for any length of time. For those that
care, RB/FB Spencer
Ware was promoted from the practice squad and will serve as
the third back for now.
Before I go on, I found it notable (and obviously a bit ironic)
during last week’s Fox telecast of the Chicago-Kansas City
game that minutes before Charles suffered the injury, analyst
John Lynch speculated that if Charles was to go down for any length
of time, Davis would become the starter and the offense would
change to cater to his strengths. That appears to be highly unlikely
because Davis’ only touches in Weeks 3-4 came as a kick
returner while West relieved Charles.
Unfortunately, only one owner per league is going to be able
to secure the services of West. Given the dearth of healthy and/or
capable running backs in the league at the moment, the odds are
strong there are at least 7-8 other owners in a 12-team league
are currently looking for more help at that position. The goal
of this exercise is not to be reactive and discuss backs who have
already performed, but rather those that might be a bit under-the-radar
and are in position to do so. Since a large number of leagues
nowadays use the blind-bidding method for waivers and I feel this
week is shaping up to be an important week on the wire, I will
include what I would be willing to bid in order to secure the
following player’s services. Of course, much depends on
your league, so quickly browse through the bids that have won
so far and let that play a major role in how much you bid for
a player.
In the case of West, I would be willing to spend up to 75
percent of my remaining budget since RB2 candidates typically
don’t fall into our laps all that often. I anticipate his weekly
floor being around 12 touches and his ceiling around 18, at least
in the beginning. Reid has a long track record of getting strong
production out of the running back position, so feel good if you
are land both West and Davis and have the luxury of letting this
thing play out.
Ahmad
Bradshaw, Colts - West should be the consensus No.
1 add in fantasy leagues this week. Assuming someone like Duke
Johnson isn’t sitting on your waiver wire like he apparently
is in roughly half of Yahoo’s leagues (please don’t me started
on large public sites’ ownership percentages), Bradshaw makes
a very nice consolation prize. For any owner that has been forced
to go up against Bradshaw as many times as I’ve had to over the
last couple years, suffice it to say that the Colts know how to
use him. (And for what it’s worth, I frankly cannot understand
why Kansas City did not pursue him.) Ultimately, I think it’s
unrealistic to expect Bradshaw to repeat last season’s numbers
simply because he’ll be running behind Frank
Gore instead of Trent
Richardson this time. With that said, I don’t see any reason
why he can’t repeat his passing-game catch and yardage totals
while Gore handles most of the early-down work. While it would
not surprise me at Bradshaw saw a bit of work this weekend against
New England, it would shock me if he’s not somewhat heavily involved
(25 snaps perhaps?) by the time Week 7 rolls around. Given the
fact the Colts’ opponent that week is New Orleans, Indianapolis
could easily control that game and give owners a preview of how
OC Pep Hamilton intends on managing Gore and Bradshaw’s snaps.
For those that may underestimate the potential impact that Bradshaw
could have, let it be noted the Colts averaged 32.2 points in
the nine full games he played last year. In the 15 contests since
– including the New England game when he broke his leg – Indianapolis
has managed 21.6 points per game. I’d be absolutely stunned if
he doesn’t perform to the level of a high-end flex in PPR leagues
over the second half of the season.
FAAB Recommendation:
Up to 25 percent of remaining budget
Javorius
Allen, Ravens - Baltimore was one of many teams that
could not afford to suffer injuries to key skill-position players
the season, but that is exactly what has happened. While Steve
Smith appears to be on the way back, the Ravens are perilously
thin at running back with Justin
Forsett battling an ankle injury and Lorenzo
Taliaferro out for the season with a foot injury. While the
team added a prospect I like in Raheem Mostert, he’s merely roster
depth having just joined the team this week. In case it wasn’t
already obvious by now, that leaves Allen as the only running
back on the squad that is healthy and knows the playbook. Even
if Smith makes it back and Forsett plays as expected this week,
Baltimore has little choice but to rely on its running game as
a way to keep its struggling defense off the field. I’ll be the
first to admit that I’m not overly impressed with Allen’s skill-set,
but it’s easy to see how quickly the fourth-round rookie could
become an every-week fantasy starter with the Ravens beginning
to run the ball more effectively over the last two weeks. Also,
let’s not forget Forsett turned 30 this week, so his ability to
recover from injury and maintain his effectiveness all season
long will be a question mark. Allen cannot be expected to produce
like Forsett if he is asked to serve as the featured back, but
I do think he’ll be forced into that role at least once or twice
this season.
FAAB Recommendation:
Up to five percent of remaining budget. Since there isn’t a ton
of urgency in picking him up – as would be the case if Forsett
was already ruled out for Week 6 – a lower bid should be more
than enough to secure his services.
Robert
Turbin, Browns – Like most people, I’m not going to
pretend like I have an idea of what’s going on in Cleveland. Two
games into the season, Duke
Johnson - drafted in large part because of the similarities
he shared with Giovani Bernard – had yet to see a target, much
less a reception. Three weeks later, he has 25 of the former and
21 of the latter. Isaiah
Crowell appears to be the main early-down back and has at
least 10 carries in every game so far, although it seems his job
status changes from week to week. Enter Turbin, who is a reasonable
blend of Johnson and Crowell in that he is more than capable in
the passing game (he was the primary third-down back during his
time with the Seahawks) and has the power most would expect out
of a 222-pounder. It’s really anybody’s guess as to whether or
not the Browns want a featured back to emerge (or even a lead
back, for that matter), but the player most suited for that role
right now is probably Turbin. (Let me make it crystal clear that
Johnson is the best talent of the three.) The good thing about
the fourth-year Utah State product is that should an injury strike
the Cleveland backfield, he has the skills necessary to adequately
replace either Johnson or Crowell. That in and of itself has to
be worth something to the team as well as fantasy owners, so stashing
him now is a low-risk, medium-reword bet that could eventually
become a low-end flex option.
FAAB Recommendation:
Lowest bid possible. I assure you 99 percent of fantasy owners
do not have Turbin on their radar right now.
Other backs that should be owned in all
leagues but may have slipped through the cracks:Theo
Riddick, Lions (15th in overall PPR scoring through five weeks);
Chris
Thompson, Redskins (33rd); Khiry
Robinson (37th and a potential high-end RB2 should the injury-prone
Mark
Ingram get hurt)
Continuing the theme of potentially overlooked waiver-wire finds,
I’d like to identify a few more at receiver and tight end
before calling it a week. I touched on the some of these players
last week, but feel it would not hurt to mention them again.
WR Brandon
LaFell, Patriots – This one should be rather obvious
and it’s actually hard for me to believe he is available in as
many leagues as he is considering how close he is to returning
to the field after finishing as the WR22 in PPR formats last season.
None of the outside receivers (such as Aaron
Dobson) have stepped up to support Julian
Edelman or Rob
Gronkowski, making it quite likely that LaFell has a starting
job waiting for him. He is eligible to return to game action in
Week 7 and should be a more than serviceable WR3 shortly thereafter.
WR DeVante
Parker, Dolphins – It’s always risky trying to predict
what’s going to happen after a midseason coaching change, but
I’m firmly in the boat that believes interim HC Dan Campbell will
push the team’s first-round draft choice this spring into the
starting lineup (or be encouraged to do so by the front office).
It’s not as if Parker doesn’t have the talent to take advantage
of the opportunity and few teams have utilized more three-wide
sets than Miami thus far. The No. 14 overall pick is going to
have a long future in the NFL and probably spend most of those
years as his team’s top receiver. The Dolphins will be doing themselves
an injustice if they don’t find a way to let him average at least
seven targets for the rest of the season. (And if you don’t want
to take my word for it, read what Jarvis
Landry told the Palm Beach Post earlier this week.) Keep in
mind the rookie missed most of the spring and camp due to his
offseason foot surgery, so his breakout may require a bit more
patience. Still, I’d be willing to bet quite a bit that former
HC Joe Philbin is going to look even more ridiculous when people
get to see what Parker can do with 40-50 snaps per game over the
next two-plus months.
WR Stefon
Diggs, Vikings – Many players could have been something
in the NFL had they just been able to stay healthy. I’m almost
100 percent certain Diggs will be really good if he is able to
overcome his injury-prone past. He’s earned two compliments (one
from former college teammate DT A.J.
Francis and another from current teammate Mike
Wallace last week) over the last few months that many players
don’t receive in their career. For those that don’t know much
about the Maryland alum, Diggs was a consensus five-star recruit
and lived up to that acclaim as a freshman in 2012 - the only
season in which he managed to stay healthy for most of the year
– totaling 1,896 all-purpose yards and finishing second to Duke's
Jamison Crowder for ACC Rookie of the Year. At worst, the rookie’s
six-catch, 87-yard debut in Week 4 should have enabled him to
steal slot duties from Jarius
Wright. (It should be noted his Week 4 catch total tied a
team record for the most by a player in his first game.) Perhaps
the Vikings’ run-heavy offense won’t allow more than one receiver
to be consistent in fantasy this season, but if Wallace and/or
Charles
Johnson are limited by their injuries in any way this week
against Kansas City, don’t be a bit surprised if Diggs has another
solid fantasy line. That may be enough to forge a timeshare with
Johnson.
TE Austin
Seferian-Jenkins, Bucs – In case any of you need a
reminder about the state of the tight end position, there are
three that have played three games or fewer that still rank within
the top 27 in PPR scoring. It should come as no surprise that
one of them is Antonio
Gates, fresh off his scintillating debut on Monday Night Football.
Another one of them is Crockett
Gillmore, who posted the majority of his 37.1 fantasy points
against Oakland in Week 2. And finally, there is Seferian-Jenkins,
who has been out with a shoulder injury since Week 2. Most of
us will remember ASJ got the majority of his production in extreme
garbage time in Tampa Bay’s Week 1 debacle against Tennessee,
but it is worth noting the Titans have yet to give up another
touchdown to the position since. (In case you’re wondering if
that’s an impressive achievement, Tennessee held Gary
Barnidge to one scoreless reception in Week 2. Barnidge, as
you well know, hasn’t been stopped since.) Tampa Bay is on a bye
in Week 6, making this week a perfect opportunity to slip in a
$1 bid or scoop him off the wire in hopes that five weeks will
be enough recovery time to get him back on the field (his original
timetable was 4-6 weeks). Jameis
Winston is 13-for-30 throwing in Mike
Evans’ direction and 20-for-38 when targeting Vincent
Jackson, suggesting his big arm has yet to find its range.
In the short time they were able to work together, Seferian-Jenkins
corralled seven of his 10 targets.
TE Richard
Rodgers, Packers – Admittedly, Rodgers does not possess
the upside of Seferian-Jenkins and is unlikely to see more than
5-6 targets very often this season, but owners can take solace
in the fact he plays in one of the best offenses in the league.
Lately, Rodgers’ lack of upside has resulted in three double-digit
fantasy-point performances which have come mostly as a result
of finding the end zone. As Green Bay continues to fight through
injuries in its receiving corps (Randall
Cobb and Davante
Adams, most notably), there’s going to be opportunity for
a big target like Rodgers. As has been the case for years, all
most owners can ask for from the tight end position is 4-5 catches
and a decent shot at a touchdown every other week. As long as
Cobb and Adams are playing at less than 100 percent, Rodgers has
a reasonable chance of achieving that level of production.
TE Jacob
Tamme, Falcons – Just about everything I said about
Rodgers above can be said about Tamme, including being productive
while the Falcons’ receiving corps is nursing its injuries.
Of course, Peyton Manning’s former caddie should be a fairly
popular add this week following his eight-catch effort in Week
5, but don’t be so quick to chalk it up as a fluke. Julio
Jones is dealing with a hamstring – a notoriously tricky
injury that only gets better with extended rest. Leonard Hankerson
missed a fair amount of time last week with a rib issue, leaving
Devonta Freeman and Tamme (not Roddy White) as the primary targets
for Matt Ryan. With two pretty good fantasy efforts already under
his belt in four tries, it is reasonable to think he could emerge
as a regular (not every-week) fantasy starter sooner than later.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.