The combined worth of all the teams in the NFL is somewhere between $35-45 billion and the salary cap for each team is $143.28 million. It doesn’t seem like a lot to ask for teams that pay out much money and a league that generates that much income to be able to hit the ground running at a fairly high level at the start of each season. Unfortunately, as we are seeing again this year, the majority of teams are ill-prepared to put out a quality product in the first two or so weeks. Who does it affect the most? I think the answer – and it should rather obvious if you consistently build your fantasy teams the same way each year – is running backs.

There are those that would have you believe that the new Collective Bargaining Agreement is severely limiting the ability for coaches to work with their players as much as they need to and I would say nowhere is that more obvious around the league than the offensive line, which requires as much chemistry and teamwork as any group of players in football. It has become commonplace for quarterbacks and receivers to work on their routes and timing during the spring and early summer, but when are running backs working on their timing with offensive line and, perhaps more importantly, when are linemen working with each other under game-like conditions? It’s not happening much in training camp (limited padded practices) or in the preseason (too much fear of losing a key player in a “meaningless” game).

From 2010 to 2014, NFL teams rushed for an average of 111 to 114 yards league-wide. Through two games this season, the league average sits at 106.9 with only four teams that have earned a positive run-block ranking from Pro Football Focus (Cincinnati, Tennessee, Miami and Chicago). Last year, only two teams “earned” a -50 or worse rating in PFF’s run-block scoring (Buffalo and San Diego). In 2015, 14 teams are on pace to hit that mark through two games. Of course that pace will not continue, but point to be made here is that if PFF’s grading reflects what play-callers are seeing on the field during a game, they aren’t going to stick with the run very long.

So why should you care about these numbers? In short, if you made the “mistake” of hitching your wagon to a first-round running back, there’s a good chance your fantasy team is standing at 1-1 or, more than likely, 0-2. And why am I emphasizing “mistake”, other than because I like being a bit sarcastic? Because I’ve said for years that if you want to win fantasy football in September and early October, draft receivers early and often. But if you want to win your league’s title, you’ll find a way to build your team around two stud running backs before it’s all said and done. While I understand this may not be a truism for many owners in their leagues, I know it is in just about all of mine and it has been since I started playing fantasy football. The new reality – which has actually been the new reality for a few years now – is that running backs aren’t set up for immediate success anymore. Much of the blame can be pinned on committee attacks, but I think just as much blame can be put on the proclivity of most coaches now to ramp up their main back’s workloads in Weeks 1-4 because they don’t do it during the preseason.

A number of teams each year talk about featuring a physical, rush-oriented offense, yet seem willing to abandon that philosophy at the drop of a hat. Part of the reason for that early on is a realization that the offensive line lacks the chemistry to make it all work like they envisioned. As any owner of Marshawn Lynch (nine of 33), LeSean McCoy (eight of 32), T.J. Yeldon (eight of 37) or DeMarco Murray (six of 21) can tell you this year, watching your running back get hit and tackled in the backfield time after time can be an unsettling thing. For some perspective on the number of “stuffed” runs I just provided for each of the four players I mentioned, McCoy led the league with “stuffed” runs with 41 (in 312 attempts) in 2014 and Murray was second with 37 (in 392 attempts). The league average of stuffed runs a season ago was 8.75 percent, so some basic division skills can tell you pretty quickly that each of the four backs I mentioned above aren’t getting a lot of help from their blockers.

I’m coming to the realization that part of the reason why the NFL is become such a pass-heavy league (especially since the new CBA was signed) is because teams are now using the first four weeks of the season to get the run-blocking in order. Some teams don’t have the personnel for this (or are just more ideally suited to throw the ball all day) and eventually realize they need to remain a pass-heavy team. Most teams, however, simply need more time to get all their new parts working as one up front.

I get it; panic is natural at this time of the year when fantasy results are matching the optimism you felt on draft day. Before we all go crazy about the bad run-blocking epidemic, however, let’s keep in mind that two games is a very small sample size and teams will improve in this area as the season goes on. However, it speaks to the point I discussed at the top; the players and the play-calling tendencies that we are seeing now will not be anything like what we see in about a month for most of these teams.

To that end, I want to take a look at 16 teams this week, provide an overview of what they’ve done so far and discuss generally where they’ll be in a few weeks. I’m also going to put the number of returning offensive line starters by each team, but will only count one as “returning” if he is playing the same position he was at the end of last year.

Arizona – 53 rush attempts, 56 pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 2)

The Cardinals probably didn’t expect this kind of balance right out of the box (especially given how quickly Andre Ellington was injured), but the fact is they have yet to trail in a game this season. Furthermore, the Saints and the Bears will likely be two of the weakest defenses Arizona will face all season.

Outlook for October and beyond - The likely return of LG Mike Iupati this week against the 49ers should further boost what’s been a surprisingly efficient ground game thus far (4.4 YPC). However, there’s not a lot of evidence to suggest that HC Bruce Arians will maintain this level of run-pass balance much longer as only four of his previous 11 offenses as an offensive coordinator or head coach have finished in the top half of the league in rushing attempts. Unsurprisingly, the same number (four of 11) of his previous offenses have finished in the top half of the league in rushing. Arians hasn’t had a running back top 700 rushing yards since Vick Ballard in 2012 or a 1,000-yard rusher since Rashard Mendenhall in 2009, so look for this offense to start changing its stripes as the competition gets more difficult.

Atlanta – 57 rush attempts, 80 pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 2)

OC Kyle Shanahan has shown a tendency to feature his top weapon at just about every stop in his NFL career and things don’t appear to be changing in his first season with the Falcons. Julio Jones is tied with Emmanuel Sanders for the second-most targets in the league (26) – a total that is just three shy of the number of rushing attempts rookie Tevin Coleman has.

Outlook for October and beyond - Shanahan has a well-earned reputation as a run-game guru, but many people forget that he was the play-caller for Houston in 2009 when the Texans led the league in passing. The talent on the offensive line is such that we probably shouldn’t expect the running game to perform much better than it currently is (2.8 YPC), although natural improvement should be expected from players such as LT Jake Matthews and LG Andy Levitre since neither one has any prior experience in Shanahan’s offensive system. It seems reasonable (and sensible) to believe that Atlanta will maintain its pass-heavy ways as we move forward.

Baltimore – 48 rush attempts, 77 pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 2)

First of all, the Ravens’ returning offensive line starters stat is a bit misleading since neither regular LT Eugene Monroe nor RT Ricky Wagner were able to finish last season, which forced RG Marshal Yanda to kick out to right tackle. Otherwise, Baltimore’s offensive line looks exactly the same to start this season as it did at the start of 2014. As far as the pass–run balance, there will be those that say that OC Marc Trestman’s passing-game influence is the reason for such an imbalance, although I think it is a bit of an anomaly given the type of games the Ravens have been in and kind of matchups they have seen so far. No play-caller in his right mind is going to dial up 14.5 more pass attempts per game with the passing-game personnel Baltimore currently has.

Outlook for October and beyond - As far as I’m concerned, Baltimore is still a running team and will get back to that over the next week or two; HC John Harbaugh is too good of a coach to allow his team to get sucked in to a pass-heavy mentality. Somewhat surprisingly, the Ravens are averaging 3.8 YPC as a team (4.5 last year) after being projected to be one of the better running teams in the league this season. I believe this goes to show that even when there is some carryover along the offensive line, it still takes a while for the group to gel when they don’t play a ton of snaps together in the preseason. This team will run the ball well eventually; the bigger question is whether or not Justin Forsett will be splitting a significant amount of snaps with Lorenzo Taliaferro.

The Bills offensive attack is matching expectations.

Buffalo – 63 rush attempts, 49 pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 3)

A season after sporting what many considered one of the worst offensive lines in the league, the Bills are averaging a league-high 4.9 YPC, which goes to show you the combined effect that a run threat at quarterback and small sample size can have on that stat. Furthermore, neither Indianapolis nor New England is likely going to field a top run defense in 2015. It also helps matters that Buffalo has had its top five linemen on the field together for all but one play the season.

Outlook for October and beyond - Owners knew going into the season that volume was not going to be a problem for the Bills and there’s really no reason to expect their current run-pass ratio to change going forward. In what will be a rarity in this piece, I think what you see with Buffalo right now is what you are going to get moving forward as well.

Carolina – 68 rush attempts, 68 pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 4)

The Panthers have benefited greatly from game flow and playing two teams with very suspect offenses thus far, neither of which could apparently make them pay for having an inaccurate quarterback whose best attribute is his ability to run and a receiver corps that is among the worst of the league. Carolina goes into its Week 5 bye playing against the Saints and Bucs over the next two weeks, so there is an outside shot the offense is going to continue looking better than it actually is.

Outlook for October and beyond - Amazingly, not a single one of the Panthers’ first seven opponents has a win yet. Obviously, that’s going to change soon. Carolina is set up for success defensively, which will play well into its ability to continue to stick with the run. However, the Panthers are not set up for consistent success offensively and that is going to start becoming apparent very soon. There are only a handful of quarterbacks in the league that can overcome the combination of league-average (or worse) receivers and a below-average offensive line and Cam Newton is not one of those quarterbacks. If there ever was a team that can start out 4-0 and then fail to make the playoffs, this is the kind of team that is set up to do that. There is a complete lack of talent all across the offensive depth chart behind the starters and some would argue there isn’t a lot of talent in the starting lineup either after Newton, Jonathan Stewart and Greg Olsen. If I own any Panthers outside of Olsen, I would be quickly try to move Newton and Stewart while they’re both still healthy. The Carolina offense we’ve seen so far is the same offense that were going to continue to see going forward; the Panthers simply lack the personnel to throw the ball more often.

Chicago – 61 rush attempts, 68 pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 2)

Perhaps the most discouraging thing going on with the Bears is the reported “pitch count” they intend to keep Matt Forte on this season. His workload to this point has been partly a function of injuries to Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal and Jay Cutler. Then again, fantasy owners are probably plenty happy with 19 touches for 105 total yards on a bad day like he had during a Week 2 blowout against Arizona. As stated earlier, Chicago is one of four teams that has earned a positive run-blocking grade from PFF so far. Of course, running ball is a little easier to do in low-pressure situations that come as a result of the defense giving up 39.5 points per game.

Outlook for October and beyond - We’re going to learn a lot about the Bears’ offense in the next four games leading up to their bye in Week 7. Cutler is expected to miss this week in Seattle and next week at home against Oakland before returning for road games at Kansas City and Detroit. The Seahawks and Chiefs have the personnel to shut down a one-dimensional offensive attack and one could argue the Raiders just got done slowing down a similar offense last week when they beat Baltimore. Chicago is going to strive for balance because that’s what the majority of HC John Fox’s teams do, but the combination of Forte’s age (30 in December), reduced snaps (down from the 93 percent he saw a season ago) and number of injuries the Bears are starting to incur may end up conspiring to turn him into the low-end RB1 I feared he would be at the beginning of the season. As such, I don’t see Forte maintaining his current pace - whether that comes as a result of apathy or injury.

Cincinnati – 67 rush attempts, 60 pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 4)

All seemed right in the world in Week 1 as Jeremy Hill owners got two touchdowns and Giovani Bernard owners saw the change-of-pace back receive 14 touches. Then Week 2 happened (Hill had two fumbles, Bernard recorded his second career 100-yard rushing game), perhaps feeding the fire that Bernard’s role could be more than just complementary this year. At least the Bengals can lay claim to PFF’s best run-blocking grade through two contests (5.6).

Outlook for October and beyond - This is been one of those few cases around the league where the offensive line has played well, but the main running back has left us wanting for more. I think the majority of fantasy owners realize that Hill is probably more the back that averaged 5.1 YPC as a rookie and not the one that’s averaging 3.5 through two games. OC Hue Jackson has long favored a power-running attack, so one would have to think unless Hill’s fumbling issues become a regular occurrence, he’s going to go right back to the high-volume back he was expected to be in the early-to-mid second round of most drafts. With his effort the first two games, Bernard has played himself into more than just a complementary role, although I’m fairly certain he won’t exceed last year’s pace – 211 touches in 13 games – by much, assuming he can stay healthy.

Cleveland – 58 rush attempts, 47 pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 4)

Like Buffalo, this is another extreme case of a team trying to hide a quarterback. It’s really anybody’s guess as to what the Browns are doing with their running backs, however, as Isaiah Crowell and rookie Duke Johnson are both plugging along at 3.4 YPC behind what is supposed to be one of the better offense of lines in the NFL. Perhaps the most surprising thing is that Johnson, who was supposed to take on the Giovani Bernard role in this offense, hasn’t even seen a target in the passing game.

Outlook for October and beyond - There has been some talk that ex-Seahawk Robert Turbin is going to take over the lead-back role in this offense once he returns from a high-ankle sprain and, quite frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if that ends up being the case. To be fair, one of the Browns’ two games thus far was against the Jets, who possess a stellar run defense, so it seems a bit harsh to make a quick judgment here when Cleveland has played one “normal” opponent. With that said, the return of Josh McCown to the starting lineup does not bode well for the running game going forward as it removes the run threat of Johnny Manziel at quarterback and probably reduces the likelihood that Travis Benjamin can stretch out defenses. Making matters worse, Cleveland faces a rather difficult stretch of run defenses between now and its Week 11 bye. In short, I don’t see this situation getting any better and, quite frankly, I can see it getting much worse.

Dallas – 56 rush attempts, 79 pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 5)

For those folks hoping and believing the Cowboys’ all-world offensive line was going to make a star out of any running back, let’s just say it’s not looking very good right now. Joseph Randle is averaging 3.4 YPC, Darren McFadden is at 2.9 and Dallas has yet to rush for a touchdown. It seems highly unlikely any of that production is going to get any better considering the long-term injuries to Tony Romo and Dez Bryant.

Outlook for October and beyond - Brandon Weeden is not suited to be a multi-week starting quarterback, Terrance Williams is very much stretched as a lead receiver and TE Jason Witten is dealing with a variety of ankle and knee sprains. It’s not really fair to ask Dallas to overcome the number of injuries has already suffered to its skill positions because I’m not sure there’s a team in the league that could. I suspect in the two or so months that Weeden or Matt Cassel is under center, the Cowboys will lean much heavier on the run than they have so far. (Remember, Dallas had a 508-476 run-to-pass ratio last year and that was with a mostly healthy Romo and a healthy Bryant.) As far as I’m concerned, the only thing the Cowboys’ running game has going for it now is potential volume. Given the workload split so far, Randle and Lance Dunbar are probably no better than low-end flex options moving forward while McFadden can probably be dropped in most leagues. Given their current injury situation, the Cowboys will be hard-pressed to consistently produce more than one fantasy-relevant player each week.

Denver – 47 rush attempts, 85 pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 0)

In retrospect, it should have been fairly obvious the transition from the style of offense Peyton Manning has run for so many years to HC Gary Kubiak’s scheme was going to be an ugly one at first. Most people also realized the Broncos’ offensive line was going to be a work in progress. The majority of people – myself included – figured between the pairing of Kubiak and OC Rick Dennison, each of whom has overseen the development of a number of very good zone-blocking offense of lines in their day (usually working together), would be able to whip up a cohesive front five by the start of the season. That clearly has not happened, as Denver’s team run-blocking score is -18.8 per PFF – second-worst in the league (Tampa Bay, -28).

Outlook for October and beyond - One of the craziest things I’ve heard and/or read over the first two weeks of the season is that Ronnie Hillman is running better than C.J. Anderson. What those people mean is that Hillman has a better YPC (3.6 vs. Anderson’s 2.3) because as the run-blocking score above will tell you, neither runner is getting much help up front. Nineteen of Denver’s 47 rush attempts (40.4 percent) have been for no gain or negative yardage, so let’s call it what is – bad blocking. Kubiak and Dennison have far too good of a track record for this running game to be stuck in the mud for much longer and the upcoming schedule would seem to be just the thing the Broncos need to get it rolling. Each of their next four opponents rank 20th or worse against the run.

Detroit – 32 rush attempts, 83 pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 3)

Let me get this right: the Lions spend their first two draft picks (LG Laken Tomlinson and RB Ameer Abdullah) on improving the running game and decide to run the ball an average of 16 times? It’s an approach that would make some sense if the first two opponents are the Bills and the Jets, but I’m not sure it is all that logical against the Chargers and Vikings. While it should be noted the Lions trailed all game against Minnesota last week, they held the lead for three-plus quarters versus San Diego in the opener, so game flow has not dictated such a crazy pass-run ratio.

Outlook for October and beyond - I’m not really not sure what we can conclude at this point. There’s little doubt that Abdullah is the best pure (and most explosive) runner Detroit has, but I’m not sure it matters when the most carries any Lions’ running back has in a game through two weeks is seven. I wouldn’t be too concerned about the No. 54 overall pick quite yet, although I know I’d be asking myself if I’m a Lions’ fan why Abdullah had seven touches versus six apiece for Joique Bell and Theo Riddick last week. Unfortunately, I think it is going take a bit of time before owners will start experiencing the joys of owning the rookie since Denver, Seattle and Arizona are the next teams up on Detroit’s schedule.

Green Bay – 59 rush attempts, 56 pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 4)

The Packers’ run-blocking score (-11.6) per PFF is actually worse than the Lions (-9.7), although one might be hard-pressed to tell since they are averaging 4.4 YPC and 130 rushing yards as a team. It’s important to note that new OC Tom Clements is calling the plays now as opposed to HC Mike McCarthy, but this offense looks pretty much the same thus far as the ones we have grown accustomed to from McCarthy.

Outlook for October and beyond - Green Bay simply does not turn the ball over very much, so it rarely ever needs to go in full-blown pass mode or take many low-percentage chances. In fact, I’d say the riskiest thing about this offense is the physical nature with which Eddie Lacy runs, because defenses have no choice but to respect Aaron Rodgers’ ability to beat them deep. What you’ve seen thus far from the Packers is probably what you’re going to get the rest of the season.

Houston – 44 rush attempts, 105 pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 3)

Meet the NFL’s leader in pass attempts. If you want to talk about “finding an identity”, look no further than the Texans, who have no business averaging 52.5 throws with Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett at quarterback. (Unsurprisingly, Houston ranks last in team completion percentage at 50.5.) Much of that disparity can be blamed on the absence of Arian Foster, but this kind of imbalance without him around also suggests HC Bill O’Brien never had any faith in his backup running backs.

Outlook for October and beyond - Owners looking for a bit of silver lining will be happy to know the Texans’ first two opponents (Kansas City and Carolina) may end up being good defenses when all is said and done. Furthermore, when Foster makes his return – likely in Week 4 – Houston can get back to what it does well and figures to face a number of average to below-average run defenses over the remainder of the schedule. I’d be lying, however, if I said the lack of running-game success without Foster wasn’t at least a little bit concerning, especially since the Panthers were without MLB Luke Kuechly and DT Star Lotulelei last week. With that said, Foster’s return should serve as a huge boon to the running and passing attacks.

Indianapolis – 41 rush attempts, 86 pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 3)

Andrew Luck has been pressured on 38 of his 94 drop-backs so far the season. Time isn’t going to allow me to take note how many of those throws were more than 10 yards downfield, but PFF has charted Luck with 12 attempts when intended target was more than 20 yards down the field. I’d be stunned if most of those 12 attempts weren’t also against the blitz. So why do you care? It’s one thing if a team decides to bring in a 32-year-old running back and wants to monitor his touches early in the season. It’s another thing for a team to know that it has an inexperienced (at best) or below-average offensive line and to ask their quarterback to chuck it down the field when the more prudent move would be to throw more often to the running backs (perhaps a screen every now and then?) or hit the possession receiver over the middle a few more times.

Outlook for October and beyond - Fortunately for owners of Luck and just about every other fantasy-viable Colt, the worst part of the season should be over. Much like Houston’s complete disregard for the running game without Foster, Indianapolis’ apparent indifference in protecting Luck via upgrading his offensive line or through play-calling is perplexing. The next three opponents are all inside what figures to be the worst division in football (the AFC South), so Indianapolis has a chance to get itself righted and figure out how it’s going to correct its protection problems before it faces New England (Week 6), Carolina (Week 8) and Denver (Week 9) next month. And please do me a favor, loyal readers: can we table the talk about Andre Johnson being done until after the Colts face some non-Jet and Bill defenses? Separation was a problem for him last year and he caught 85 passes. Let’s not pretend like you know after two games one season later that a future Hall of Famer is ready to be put out to pasture. Anquan Boldin hasn’t created separation consistently for at least three years and continues to be an 80-catch player in the NFL.

Jacksonville – 54 rush attempts, 73 pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 1)

The Jaguars’ run-blocking graded out as the eighth-worst in 2014, so it’s a refreshing change to see they are ranked as the eighth-best so far this season. Having a good running back helps in that regard, although it is a bit troubling that Yeldon is averaging 3.3 YPC thus far. It’ll be interesting to see if those numbers change much over the next two weeks as Jacksonville hits the road to face New England and Indianapolis, two teams who have struggled to stop the run but have the kind of explosive offenses that can force teams out of their comfort zone.

Outlook for October and beyond - I think a strong case can be made the Jaguars’ win last week over the Dolphins was perhaps the most impressive one in two-plus seasons under HC Gus Bradley. There is tangible progress being made in Jacksonville and it should only get better once TE Julius Thomas returns from injury. With that said, the Jaguars’ margin for error is still much thinner than it is for most teams – something I expect to become quite obvious as they play their three games on the road – so they need to remain committed to the run in order to set up the passing game regardless of whether or not they fall behind quickly or not.

Kansas City – 61 rush attempts, 58 pass attempts (Returning offensive line starters: 0)

Alex Smith probably enjoys more job security than any average quarterback in recent memory. There’s something to be said about a quarterback that puts such a high priority on taking care of the ball, but I wait for the day when a defensive coordinator does the unthinkable and puts all 11 men within 10-15 yards of the line of scrimmage on every play because Smith simply refuses to put safeties on their heels. As a result, it’s hard for Travis Kelce and Jeremy Maclin to maximize their talents to stretch the field and speaks to the greatness of Jamaal Charles that he can average 4.9 YPC behind a completely rebuilt line and do it against opponents that don’t have to respect the deep ball.

Outlook for October and beyond - It seems like a pretty good bet the Kansas City offense you see now is going to be the same one you see at the end of the season, barring injury. Charles hasn’t had one of those 2-3 games per year yet where Reid seems to forget about him, although it is fair to wonder if one is coming after his two-fumble performance in Week 2, which may provide a convenient excuse to lighten the load on Charles early in the season as the Chiefs suggested they would do this summer. Otherwise, I expect business as usual in KC.