Along with excitement that football is near, the first week of training camp usually brings about its share of injuries – most of which only seem to be of the season-ending variety. Last year, Jeremy Maclin and Dennis Pitta were among the first notable players to go down. This year hasn’t claimed any big names yet, but the season-ending injuries to Vick Ballard and Kendall Hunter should serve as a pretty good reminder that no team – fantasy or real – is ever too deep. A couple of months ago, the San Francisco 49ers appeared to have five potentially capable running backs fighting for four spots. Now, they have an aging vet (Frank Gore), a second-round rookie that never made it through a full season in college (Carlos Hyde) and a back in Marcus Lattimore that is still being treated with kid gloves and has admitted he needs to cross a mental hurdle nearly two years after his horrific college knee injury.

Season-ending injuries at any time of the year are unfortunate. However, if they are going to happen, fantasy owners should be thankful for the ones that happen now as opposed to Week 1 or Week 2. Ballard and Hunter’s absences aren’t going to be felt nearly as much as Maclin and Pitta’s were last year, but don’t think for a second that another one (or handful) isn’t/aren’t coming in the next few weeks. For all the safety measures that have been instituted into football in recent years, it is still a violent and cruel sport. Just like the real game, the fantasy teams and owners that find themselves playing for something at the end of the season typically are the ones that either avoided key injuries and/or handled adversity the best.

Two weeks ago, I kicked off my sixth year of projecting each player on every team game-by-game, two divisions at a time. Last week, I provided a look inside the AFC and NFC North. This week, we’ll dive inside the AFC and NFC South.

Here’s a quick explanation of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

For an example as to the amount of possibilities and factors I consider, take a look below at the Indianapolis Colts’ projections. T.Y. Hilton does not have a single “red” on his schedule because: 1) there is a lack of upper-echelon cornerbacks on his schedule and 2) most of the top cornerbacks he could face in a given week – such as Denver’s Aqib Talib or Cleveland’s Joe Haden – will either guard Reggie Wayne or not follow Hilton when he moves into the slot. In other cases (which I will discuss as we move along with these projections), players such as Philadelphia’s Brandon Boykin can get exposed if they play anywhere but the slot. Most receivers see a lot of time on both sides of the formation (left and right) while the majority of today’s cornerbacks remain on one side. And really, that is just the tip of the iceberg when I hammer out these projections. As you can tell, a lot of thought goes into this.

Here are some final notes to help you understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

1. The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks.
   
   
2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another.
   
   
3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game. Additionally, players with fewer than 10 projected catches or 100 projected yards have been removed, which will explain the discrepancy in some of the quarterback’s final numbers.
   
   
4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2014.
   

Key to the table below:

PPR Avg - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Avg - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC South

Matchup analysis: If the extra time he had off last season proves to be helpful to his body, then Foster has a wonderful opportunity to enjoy the kind of season that made him a fantasy superstar since his 2010 breakout. Most of the best run defenses he figures to face are from the AFC North, although only Baltimore (Week 16) has a great chance to be among the best in the league. However, one poorly-placed matchup in the fantasy title game shouldn’t be enough to keep owners from investing into him as a RB2 because whatever ills his improved offensive line doesn’t cure, volume should. O’Brien has already suggested Foster will also fill the Kevin Faulk and Danny Woodhead role in his offense as well, meaning the soon-to-be sixth-year veteran’s only roadblock to another huge fantasy season is his ability to carry another massive workload. The story is very much the same for Johnson and Hopkins, who both have exceedingly smooth schedules in the first half of the season as only the Giants’ much-improved secondary in Week 3 can really match up to them talent-wise. Johnson will also get challenged by Buffalo’s Stephon Gilmore (Week 4), Haden in Week 11 and perhaps Indianapolis’ Vontae Davis (on occasion) in Weeks 6 and 15, but all are battles he is more than capable of winning. Hopkins probably has it even easier, with Pittsburgh’s Cortez Allen (Week 7) possibly the best cornerback he will see outside of the Giants’ Prince Amukamara (Week 3) in the first half of the season. Cleveland (Week 11), Cincinnati (Week 12) and Baltimore could all be top-level pass defenses by the second half of the season, but I don’t see a defense with two near-elite corners capable of keeping both Johnson and Hopkins in check all game. Of course, all this bodes well for Fitzpatrick, who could easily maintain respectable fantasy QB2 numbers all season long and even has an outside shot at finishing among the top 15-16 at his position if keeps the job all year (which he should do if he stays healthy).

Matchup analysis: After OC Pep Hamilton stuck with the run last year long after he should have realized he didn’t have the linemen necessary to carry out a power rushing attack, expect him to be less stubborn in his second season as a play-caller against a bevy of opponents that lack the depth to contain Luck and all of his weapons in the passing game. Luck doesn’t have the easiest of schedules, but it is also far from the most difficult since this division and the NFC East contain a number of soft pass defenses, meaning the biggest impediment to his rise to the top of the fantasy quarterback mountain could be Hamilton. Owners have a right to be leery about a player like Wayne entering his age-35 season and coming off such a serious injury, but given the fact that he is no longer the sole focus of defensive coordinators trying to stop the Colts’ passing game, he represents solid value in the eighth round. Although Revis (Week 11) and Haden (Week 14) may be able to shadow the old man, Wayne has plenty of green and white boxes to be a top-end WR3 in fantasy if his knee holds up. Hilton carried the passing game at times following Wayne’s season-ending injury and probably shouldn’t see that big of a hit to his numbers even if the longtime vet plays all 16 games. Hilton, like Randall Cobb last week, works out of the slot so much that he is going to be a threat to blow up every week; most defenses simply do not have a slot corner capable of defending him. As for Richardson, he still has enough working against him. In addition to the fact that his power game does not fit well with the Colts’ mostly-finesse front five, the AFC North and South should contain a fair number of solid run defenses. Denver (Week 1) should be improved in that regard as well, while teams like the Broncos, Eagles (Week 2) and Redskins (Week 13) could all make the game enough of a track meet where Richardson becomes a bit of a forgotten man.

Matchup analysis: Just like Maurice Jones-Drew has been in recent years from the running back position, Gerhart will easily be the most relevant Jaguar in fantasy. Volume – be it on the ground or through the air – should not be a problem for him, which means durability and game situation will make more of a difference to him than matchups in a lot of cases, although he is probably going to get his yards regardless since he is an asset as a receiver. As a result, the ex-Viking could see a lot of work in the passing game through the first five weeks simply because each team has the weapons to pick apart Jacksonville’s secondary. Weeks 6-10 offer less dynamic offenses, while the five post-bye games provide a healthy mixture of both. It is virtually impossible to predict what Shorts might do for a number of reasons: 1) he has yet to play a full season, 2) he’s never consistently had as much talent around him at his position as he does now and 3) so much of his production in previous years has come when the team is trailing that it is hard to discern what he will do if and when the team is more competitive (which it should be this season). Although Shorts isn’t going to get any red boxes on his schedule, it bears mentioning that he’ll have some difficult fantasy matchups because of who his quarterback(s) will be. Most of his yellows would be reds if he was simply going to remain an outside receiver only. Allen Robinson will be Shorts’ direct backup, so if/when Shorts gets hurt, he could be the most valuable receiver on the team. With that said, Lee is the better redraft pick for now and should bring a bit of the big play back to the offense if he is recovered from his college injuries. It should be fairly obvious as No. 2 and 3 options in a run-heavy offense with a below-average quarterback, but neither of the rookies should be trusted as anything more than low-end WR4 this year.

Matchup analysis: This entire division figures to reap the benefits of trading in the NFC West for the NFC East and perhaps no AFC South coach will have a better understanding of the East than Whisenhunt, who saw the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles and Redskins as a play-caller with the Chargers last season. It won’t be all easy, however, as the Titans inherit the AFC North and face improved defenses in their own division. Still, Sankey has more than enough tools to succeed if Whisenhunt remains as committed to the run as he did with San Diego a season ago. While the rookie doesn’t have any lengthy green-and-white runs on his schedule, he doesn’t have any extended yellow-or-red streaks either. A healthy Greene might change things, but that is unlikely to happen. (McCluster is extremely unlikely to handle significant carries.) Owning a Titan receiver during the fantasy playoffs should be more than boom than bust, which should allow Wright to cap off another fine season in which he’ll square off against very few elite corners and move across the formation enough to generally avoid the ones he does face. Inconsistency still figures to remain a part of Hunter’s game, although outside of Cincinnati (Week 3), Baltimore (Week 10), Pittsburgh (Week 11) and the New York Giants (Week 14), there aren’t a lot of teams that have a second – much less a top – cornerback capable of dealing with his athleticism. The same can pretty much be said about Walker and the linebackers/safeties he will attract; the only potentially difficult stretch he should face is during the three weeks following the Titans’ Week 9 bye. IF Locker can stay healthy all season, expend a few struggles in the first half but mostly smooth sailing otherwise; in this offense, he should a more than capable QB2 for fantasy owners in 2014.

NFC South

Matchup analysis: Ryan’s job becomes slightly more difficult now without Gonzalez wizardry in the red zone; it is safe to say that Toilolo and Douglas will not make up for the loss of the retired tight end. While Jones and White will attract more attention as a result, they will also be targeted more often out of necessity. The schedule for both players will allow that to happen with more success since only the Saints (Weeks 1 and 16), Giants (Week 5), Cardinals (Week 13) and perhaps the Bears (Week 6) and Ravens (Week 7) have much of a chance to contain one or both of the star receivers. Owners that are able to grab both as their fantasy WR1 and WR2 should be rewarded handsomely, assuming both can avoid the injuries that sabotaged their 2013 campaigns. Even though he’ll see much less action than he did last season, Douglas could make for a decent bye-week WR3 in PPR leagues since only about half of the opponents have capable nickelback options (Saints, Bengals, Giants, Bears, Ravens, Cardinals and Packers). Toilolo should pretty much be a non-factor, but one player that will benefit from Gonzalez’s absence should be Freeman. The rookie will probably be more of a niche player in his first year (suggesting his fantasy value will fluctuate more based on game situations than individual/team matchups), but the need for Ryan to find someone when he gets quick pressure should enable Freeman to push 40 receptions if he makes Rodgers an afterthought. Jackson should have a couple of pockets for decent production, although I expect the majority of the second-half slate to be up to the task of slowing him down. Still, Jackson’s work in the passing game plus his touchdown-scoring upside should make him a respectable back-end RB2 option most weeks. Ryan’s season could go south quickly if Jones and/or White get hurt again, but he has a good scheme and more than enough talent (personal as well as team) to work his way through all the yellow, especially if the offensive line makes the kind of improvement it should.