“Darn the wheel of the world! Why must it continually turn over? Where is the reverse gear?”

- Jack London

Every so often, I like to find a quote that connects what I do with what I am experiencing in a given week. Writers – especially those with multiple jobs – are consistently working against the clock, but so too are fantasy owners. Fortunately (and sometimes unfortunately) for me, I am both and I needed time to work backwards a little bit more this week than it did. Thankfully, the worst is over. I will likely have four big-money drafts to look forward over the next two weeks and feel as good about my rankings this year as I ever have.

Back to the aforementioned quote: two weeks ago, most of us were chomping at the bit for football to start. Two weeks from now, most of us will be wrapping up our final fantasy drafts and be days away from the Thursday Night Football opener. In between now and then, owners need to make sure they do their most homework this weekend as the preseason heads into its most important week. (Shockingly, the preseason isn’t just about who wins the starting quarterback job in Cleveland…) I put a fair amount of weight into the third full week of the exhibition season simply because it gives us our first semi-real look at frontline players executing something that resembles a regular-season gameplan. Make sure to set aside some time this weekend to do more than just watch the highlights…you’ll thank me later.

Loyal readers already know my stance on the importance of value when it comes to drafting, but most fantasy analysts fail to quantify it. As it relates to my Big Boards, I define "value" using the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB, two-WR league, which essentially allows me to compare apples and oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation from the 12th-ranked player at the position – the last starting-caliber player at the position. At RB and WR, the value reflects the standard deviation from the 24th-ranked player. As I have mentioned many times over the years, "value" in drafting is key. Need has to outweigh value on occasion, but for the most part, it can't hurt to take the best player left on the board. Understanding the delicate balance of realizing a player is too good to pass up and knowing exactly when the last spot in your likely Week 1 starting lineup needs to be filled often separates the great drafters from the very good ones.

Beyond using “value” to ease the process of setting up a draft board, analyzing the playoff matchups and common sense has to enter into the conversation as well. A perfect example of the latter is Jimmy Graham, whose PPR value should make him a top-five player on all three boards. While Graham certainly brings a huge advantage to his fantasy teams almost every week, no number cannot account for the economic principle of “opportunity cost” – the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen – in real-time when owners pass on an elite running back to draft Graham. A simple number value also cannot account for the drastic falloff in value at running back after the established top options are drafted, usually by the end of the first round. Smart drafting also involves supply versus demand. Every year, there are not nearly enough quality running backs to occupy 24 starting spots in 12-team leagues.

Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about a few key points:

1) They are not going to look like many other draft boards you see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies heavily on projected consistency and matchups, not overall fantasy point total projections. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called "experts" get hung up by the final numbers. Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.

2) I will push a player down my board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t trust him. If you take the time to break down each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point totals or averages to a tee. (Think of the average and value I provide for each player as a starting point for my rankings.) Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down my board – despite a higher average or overall point total – if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous.

3) Much like the past two seasons, I want to provide readers with a clear risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to holdout, injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, you will see a next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board, you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance to frustrate you at some point this season.

Without a doubt, my main focus this year is set up a Big Board that reduces risk for as long as possible while also drafting for upside as soon as the most dependable players are off the board.

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format:

One final note: Over the next week, I will be reviewing the rest of the action from Week 2 of the preseason and “quality controlling” my projections (basically double-checking my numbers, such as not having one defense projected to intercept 40 passes while another has just five), so my final Big Boards may look dramatically different next week – particularly at the bottom – than they currently do. As with all things that are worth doing, this process takes time and needs to be constantly revised as more information about depth charts and injuries becomes available. What I can assure you is that my final set of Big Boards will be the most comprehensive draft-day tool anyone in your league will have at their disposal.

There was a bit of chaos among players ranked inside the top 50 this week, so I had to give more time to them than I expected. Fear not, however, as I gave some quality time to the other 125.

Let’s see how it shakes out this week:

PPR Big Board - Top 175 OVR PR Pos Player Risk Tm Age Value FPts/G FPts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1 1 RB Adrian Peterson MIN 29 6.58 21.5 322.5 2 2 RB LeSean McCoy PHI 26 5.66 20.2 303.0 3 3 RB Matt Forte CHI 28 6.72 21.7 325.5 4 4 RB Jamaal Charles KC 27 6.25 21.0 315.5 5 1 WR Calvin Johnson DET 28 4.22 21.1 316.0 6 2 WR Demaryius Thomas DEN 26 3.54 20.1 301.5 7 5 RB Eddie Lacy GB 24 4.08 18.0 251.5 8 1 TE Jimmy Graham NO 27 6.39 20.6 308.5 9 3 WR Dez Bryant DAL 25 4.15 21.0 314.5 10 6 RB Montee Ball DEN 23 3.28 16.8 252.5 11 1 QB Peyton Manning DEN 38 3.66 28.1 421.6 12 4 WR Julio Jones ATL 25 3.23 19.7 295.0 13 7 RB Giovani Bernard CIN 22 3.39 17.0 255.0 14 5 WR Brandon Marshall CHI 30 2.76 19.0 285.0 15 6 WR A.J. Green CIN 26 2.19 18.2 273.0 16 8 RB Andre Ellington ARI 25 3.72 17.5 262.0 17 9 RB DeMarco Murray DAL 26 4.10 18.0 234.0 18 10 RB Arian Foster HOU 28 4.38 18.4 276.0 19 11 RB Marshawn Lynch SEA 28 2.05 15.1 226.5 20 7 WR Jordy Nelson GB 29 1.91 17.8 267.0 21 8 WR Antonio Brown PIT 26 1.79 17.6 264.5 22 12 RB Zac Stacy STL 23 2.33 15.5 232.5 23 13 RB Reggie Bush DET 29 2.82 16.2 210.5 24 14 RB Toby Gerhart JAC 27 2.76 16.1 225.5 25 9 WR Roddy White ATL 32 1.98 17.9 268.5 26 10 WR Alshon Jeffery CHI 24 1.44 17.1 257.0 27 11 WR Randall Cobb GB 24 2.17 18.2 272.5 28 15 RB Alfred Morris WAS 25 0.97 13.6 203.5 29 2 QB Aaron Rodgers GB 30 1.89 25.6 384.1 30 3 QB Drew Brees NO 35 1.79 25.5 382.0 31 16 RB Doug Martin TB 25 1.91 14.9 223.5 32 17 RB Bishop Sankey TEN 21 2.19 15.3 229.5 33 2 TE Rob Gronkowski NE 25 3.01 15.8 189.5 34 12 WR Victor Cruz NYG 27 1.30 16.9 254.0 35 3 TE Julius Thomas DEN 26 2.88 15.6 218.5 36 18 RB Le’Veon Bell PIT 22 1.46 14.3 214.0 37 13 WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 31 1.79 17.6 264.5 38 14 WR Pierre Garcon WAS 28 1.25 16.9 253.0 39 15 WR Wes Welker DEN 33 0.90 16.4 245.5 40 16 WR Michael Floyd ARI 24 0.68 16.1 241.0 41 17 WR Andre Johnson HOU 33 1.08 16.6 249.5 42 18 WR Keenan Allen SD 22 0.05 15.2 227.5 43 19 WR Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 23 0.54 15.9 238.0 44 20 WR Vincent Jackson TB 31 0.12 14.9 224.0 45 21 WR Torrey Smith BAL 25 0.35 14.6 219.0 46 19 RB Joique Bell DET 28 0.73 13.2 198.5 47 20 RB C.J. Spiller BUF 27 1.90 14.9 208.5 48 4 QB Andrew Luck IND 24 1.74 25.4 381.0 49 5 QB Matthew Stafford DET 26 0.84 24.1 361.8 50 22 WR T.Y. Hilton IND 24 1.32 17.0 254.5 51 4 TE Kyle Rudolph MIN 24 2.29 14.8 221.5 52 21 RB Trent Richardson IND 24 1.39 14.2 212.5 53 22 RB Shane Vereen NE 25 2.20 15.3 168.5 54 23 RB Pierre Thomas NO 29 0.07 12.1 181.5 55 23 WR Percy Harvin SEA 26 1.05 16.6 199.0 56 24 WR Michael Crabtree SF 26 0.00 15.1 226.5 57 25 WR Kendall Wright TEN 24 0.52 14.4 215.5 58 26 WR Mike Wallace MIA 28 0.31 15.5 233.0 59 24 RB Frank Gore SF 31 0.97 10.8 162.5 60 25 RB Rashad Jennings NYG 29 0.24 11.9 178.0 61 27 WR Reggie Wayne IND 35 0.42 14.5 217.5 62 26 RB Lamar Miller MIA 23 0.49 11.5 172.5 63 28 WR Emmanuel Sanders DEN 27 0.02 15.1 227.0 64 5 TE Vernon Davis SF 30 0.82 12.7 190.5 65 27 RB Fred Jackson BUF 33 0.22 11.9 154.5 66 6 TE Jordan Cameron CLE 26 0.61 12.4 186.0 67 6 QB Tom Brady NE 37 0.22 23.2 348.7 68 28 RB Ray Rice BAL 27 0.76 13.3 172.5 69 29 RB Steven Jackson ATL 31 0.00 12.2 183.0 70 30 RB Ryan Mathews SD 26 0.75 11.1 156.0 71 29 WR Marques Colston NO 31 0.78 14.0 210.0 72 30 WR Brandin Cooks NO 20 1.84 12.5 187.5 73 31 WR DeSean Jackson WAS 27 1.98 12.3 184.5 74 7 QB Matt Ryan ATL 29 0.10 23.1 346.2 75 7 TE Jason Witten DAL 32 0.71 12.5 188.0 76 8 QB Nick Foles PHI 25 0.81 24.1 361.2 77 9 QB Jay Cutler CHI 31 0.22 23.2 348.7 78 10 QB Cam Newton CAR 25 0.52 22.2 332.9 79 8 TE Jordan Reed WAS 24 2.42 15.0 179.5 80 11 QB Robert Griffin III WAS 24 0.35 23.4 327.9 81 12 QB Colin Kaepernick SF 26 0.24 23.3 349.0 82 31 RB Terrance West CLE 23 1.67 9.8 147.5 83 32 RB Ben Tate CLE 26 0.66 11.3 146.5 84 9 TE Zach Ertz PHI 23 0.09 11.7 175.0 85 10 TE Greg Olsen CAR 29 0.78 12.6 189.5 86 11 TE Dennis Pitta BAL 29 0.73 12.6 188.5 87 33 RB Danny Woodhead SD 29 0.90 10.9 164.0 88 34 RB Chris Johnson NYJ 28 0.31 11.8 176.5 89 35 RB Jeremy Hill CIN 21 2.45 8.7 131.0 90 32 WR Sammy Watkins BUF 21 1.15 13.5 202.0 91 36 RB Darren Sproles PHI 31 1.46 10.1 152.0 92 37 RB Bernard Pierce BAL 24 2.52 8.6 129.5 93 33 WR Anquan Boldin SF 33 1.67 12.7 191.0 94 34 WR Golden Tate DET 26 1.70 12.7 190.5 95 35 WR Julian Edelman NE 28 1.43 13.1 183.0 96 36 WR Jeremy Maclin PHI 26 1.44 13.1 196.0 97 38 RB Lance Dunbar DAL 24 1.50 10.1 131.0 98 39 RB Stevan Ridley NE 25 1.72 9.8 127.0 99 37 WR DeAndre Hopkins HOU 22 1.79 12.6 188.5 100 38 WR Kelvin Benjamin CAR 23 2.10 12.1 182.0 101 39 WR Cecil Shorts JAC 26 1.16 13.5 175.0 102 40 WR Eric Decker NYJ 27 2.12 12.1 181.5 103 41 WR Rueben Randle NYG 23 2.14 12.1 181.0 104 13 QB Tony Romo DAL 34 0.00 22.9 344.0 105 14 QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 32 1.80 20.4 305.8 106 15 QB Russell Wilson SEA 23 1.68 20.6 308.4 107 42 WR Mike Evans TB 21 1.72 12.7 190.0 108 43 WR Justin Hunter TEN 23 2.52 11.5 161.5 109 44 WR Terrance Williams DAL 24 2.90 11.0 165.0 110 45 WR Danny Amendola NE 28 1.52 13.0 142.5 111 40 RB Maurice Jones-Drew OAK 29 1.48 10.1 151.5 112 41 RB Devonta Freeman ATL 22 1.84 9.6 144.0 113 42 RB Andre Williams NYG 22 3.58 7.1 107.0 114 43 RB Carlos Hyde SF 22 5.19 4.9 73.0 115 44 RB Jonathan Stewart CAR 27 2.51 8.7 112.5 116 12 TE Charles Clay MIA 25 0.00 11.5 173.0 117 45 RB Darren McFadden OAK 27 2.09 9.3 111.0 118 16 QB Philip Rivers SD 32 1.41 20.9 314.0 119 46 WR Tavon Austin STL 23 2.17 12.0 180.5 120 47 WR Markus Wheaton PIT 23 2.71 11.3 169.0 121 46 RB Khiry Robinson NO 24 2.78 8.3 124.0 122 47 RB Christine Michael SEA 23 5.30 4.7 70.5 123 48 WR Kenny Britt STL 25 3.12 10.7 139.0 124 49 WR Greg Jennings MIN 30 3.18 10.6 159.0 125 13 TE Martellus Bennett CHI 27 1.04 10.1 151.0 126 14 TE Delanie Walker TEN 30 1.44 9.5 142.5 127 17 QB Ryan Tannehill MIA 26 2.05 20.0 300.5 128 48 RB Dexter McCluster TEN 26 2.54 8.6 120.5 129 50 WR Dwayne Bowe KC 29 2.34 11.8 165.0 130 49 RB James White NE 22 3.63 7.1 106.0 131 50 RB Mike Tolbert CAR 28 3.35 7.5 112.0 132 18 QB Andy Dalton CIN 26 3.46 18.0 270.6 133 51 WR Jordan Matthews PHI 21 4.38 8.9 133.5 134 15 TE Ladarius Green SD 24 2.22 8.4 126.0 135 16 TE Antonio Gates SD 34 1.08 10.0 150.0 136 51 RB LeGarrette Blount PIT 27 4.43 5.9 89.0 137 53 WR Doug Baldwin SEA 25 2.88 11.0 165.5 138 54 WR Kenny Stills NO 22 3.09 10.7 161.0 139 55 WR Jarrett Boykin GB 24 3.30 10.4 156.5 140 52 RB DeAngelo Williams CAR 31 2.33 8.9 133.5 141 53 RB Knowshon Moreno MIA 27 2.89 8.1 113.5 142 54 RB Bobby Rainey TB 26 4.05 6.5 97.0 143 17 TE Garrett Graham HOU 28 2.00 8.7 104.5 144 18 TE Dwayne Allen IND 24 2.05 8.6 129.5 145 56 WR Brian Hartline MIA 27 2.83 11.1 166.5 146 55 RB Chris Ivory NYJ 26 4.80 5.4 65.0 147 56 RB Ronnie Hillman DEN 22 5.02 5.1 76.5 148 57 RB Roy Helu WAS 25 3.61 7.1 106.5 149 58 RB Mark Ingram NO 24 3.90 6.7 73.5 150 19 QB Carson Palmer ARI 34 1.92 20.2 303.2 151 57 WR John Brown ARI 24 4.59 8.6 112.0 152 19 TE Heath Miller PIT 31 0.47 10.9 163.0 153 58 WR Harry Douglas ATL 29 3.11 10.7 160.5 154 59 WR Jerricho Cotchery CAR 32 3.49 10.2 152.5 155 60 WR Robert Woods BUF 22 2.78 11.2 167.5 156 61 WR Aaron Dobson NE 23 3.91 9.6 143.5 157 59 RB Ahmad Bradshaw IND 28 4.42 6.0 59.5 158 60 RB Shonn Greene TEN 29 5.16 4.9 49.0 159 62 WR Riley Cooper PHI 26 4.50 8.7 131.0 160 63 WR James Jones OAK 30 4.41 8.9 133.0 161 20 QB Alex Smith KC 30 2.80 19.0 284.7 162 21 QB Matt Cassel MIN 32 9.73 16.5 82.6 163 61 RB Stepfan Taylor ARI 23 5.59 4.3 64.5 164 22 QB Jake Locker TEN 26 2.09 20.0 239.7 165 62 RB Jonathan Grimes HOU 24 5.96 3.8 56.5 166 20 TE Travis Kelce KC 24 2.71 7.7 115.5 167 63 RB James Starks GB 28 5.47 4.5 58.0 168 64 RB Knile Davis KC 22 5.54 4.4 65.5 169 64 WR Marqise Lee JAC 22 4.29 9.0 135.5 170 65 WR Hakeem Nicks IND 26 3.64 10.0 119.5 171 66 WR Andrew Hawkins CLE 28 3.98 9.5 142.0 172 21 TE Jared Cook STL 27 2.52 8.0 119.5 173 23 QB Sam Bradford STL 26 4.26 16.9 253.6 174 22 TE Gavin Escobar DAL 23 4.12 5.7 85.5 175 67 WR Steve Smith BAL 35 1.81 8.5 128.0

Moving a little further down, Martin gets a nice boost in value with the likely season-ending ankle injury to Charles Sims. While it would be convenient to just slide Rainey into Sims’ projections, it rarely ever works out that way in reality. I still expect the Bucs to use Rainey and, to a lesser extent, Mike James to spell more Martin often than we’d like and I also hold little to no hope that Tampa Bay’s offensive line will be even an average run-blocking unit. With that said, Martin should be the clear lead back that gets nearly all the work at the goal line…and that still means a lot these days in fantasy football.

While Martin saw his stock rise due to injury, two other notable backs saw their ranking drop substantially. In what can only be considered a case that Pittsburgh is placing more value on size than skill, Le’Veon Bell appears to be out as the Steelers’ goal-line back and may end up sharing more carries than anyone could have realistically expected. According to STATS, Bell converted nine of his 13 runs of three yards or fewer into first downs last year (the 69.2-percent conversion rate was fourth-best in the AFC) and five of his 12 runs inside the 3-yard-line into touchdowns (the 41.7-percent conversion rate was fifth-best in the AFC). Armed with that knowledge behind a highly-talented but poor-blocking offensive line last year, one would think Bell earned the right to keep his job. The second-year back reportedly dropped 12 pounds in the offseason in an effort to break more big runs, which is exactly what he will need to do in order to live up to his current ADP (2.7 in PPR) with a healthy Blount stealing carries from him.

We head to Buffalo for our other big top 50 faller. The Bills might employ the run-heaviest offense in the league, but Fred Jackson refuses to go away while Spiller enters the last year of his contract. (If there was any doubt about who the Bills value more, it may have been erased when they chose to extend Jackson’s contract late last month.) There is high probability that Spiller will be more efficient with his carries (i.e. average more yards per carry) than he was last year with a healthy ankle, but there is an equally good chance that Jackson will scoop up just about every short-yardage score and most of the third-down work. Needless to say, it is going to take a seismic shift in thinking – such as a long-term injury to Jackson – sometime between now and the start of the season before I consider moving Spiller back inside the third-round area.

Another Bell – Joique in Detroit – makes an appearance in the top 50 on the PPR and .5 PPR boards after finishing just outside last week. A big part of drafting well early is combining high upside with low risk into a package with as few question marks as possible. Sharing a backfield with Bush isn’t going to lead to weekly dominance barring an injury to the ex-Saint and Dolphin, but as the likely leading ball-carrier and goal-line back for the high-scoring Lions, Bell has an incredibly good shot to live up to this rather lofty ranking.

By now, we all know the story about 30-something running backs: avoid them at all costs. However, I must admit that Fred Jackson (8.5) and Gore (5.10) seem like good bets to live up to their ADP. Since we discussed Jackson earlier, let’s focus on Gore, who has been ridiculously productive since HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman arrived prior to the 2011 season. The Niners’ all-time leading rusher appears more likely than ever to lose a few carries this year since Hyde has been a quick study, but it would qualify as a stunner if Gore finished with fewer than 225 carries, lost goal-line duties and/or didn’t come relatively close to 1,000 yards rushing yet again. While that kind of production isn’t the kind that gets owners all excited, it is the kind of production that typically plays well in the flex position.

Unlike most analysts, I have less of a problem with Newton’s new receivers and more of an issue with his offensive line and offseason ankle surgery. However, if we are all going to be honest with ourselves, would it surprise any of us if he manages to be a top-five quarterback yet again this year? Newton has easily the worst supporting cast of the top 15 or so signal-callers, but how sure can we be that Foles isn’t a one-hit wonder? Or if Kaepernick will repeat 2013? Or if Cutler can stay healthy all 16 games? There is little doubt the risk-taking owner will look past all of those question marks on the other quarterbacks and take one of them before Newton and that’s more than understandable. Those same owners need to realize Newton is probably the safest call of the bunch. Foles (more favorable playoff slate) and Cutler (superior offensive talent in a dynamic passing offense) get the nod here, but it is close.

Foles told Geoff Mosher of CSN Philadelphia late last week that Ertz compares favorably to a well-known former University of Arizona teammate, suggesting Ertz is similar to Gronkowski in their “ability to stretch the defense, make tough catches…” and “thrive on athleticism”. (I wonder how much his ADP jumped after that comment…) The praise of Ertz isn’t exactly off-base and he is a steal at his current mid-ninth round ADP, especially considering his production in a limited role in five December games last year (15 catches, 195 yards and three scores). Extrapolated over 16 games, the averages work out to a 48-624-10 line. Expect something closer to 55-60 catches with about 800 yards and 7-8 touchdowns, more than enough to put him into the mid-level TE1 conversation.

Most owners who regularly capture fantasy football titles are quick to give credit to one or more gems they nabbed in the late rounds. While an 8.12 ADP may not qualify as a late-round pick for some, I am becoming more intrigued by the notion that Benjamin is more than a high-upside WR4. He may end up just outside the WR3 range given Carolina’s somewhat conservative offense and his inconsistent hands, but owners need to remember that Steve Smith turned a 64-745-4 line into a WR37 finish in 2013 in 15 games and was not exactly the first target for Newton in the end zone. Benjamin WILL be a primary threat by the goal line and owns a substantial size advantage over just about any defender he’ll face anywhere else on the field. It probably isn’t realistic to expect anything close to 1,000 yards receiving, although it does seem likely he’ll average about 15 yards per catch on about 55-60 receptions and find the end zone about 7-8 times.

Note: In the off-chance that Josh Gordon is handed anything less than a season-long suspension (let’s say eight games for argument’s sake), I would consider him right after Benjamin.

101-175

Just like in any business, it is good to keep an open mind and give a player a second or third chance, even if they have burned you before. While I cannot recall ever owning Blount, it is fair to say that I have a hard time believing he has earned a split role – much less goal-line duties – in Pittsburgh. Blount is about as athletic as 250-pound backs come, but is mostly a soft inside runner that offers nothing in the passing game. I’m willing to be proven wrong on his red-zone prowess after he experienced a bit of a rebirth in New England last year, but there is a reason that he lost goal-line duties on more than one occasion in Tampa Bay and needed a lot of things to happen in front of him on the depth chart in his only year with the Patriots to get the work he did.

John Brown was the last name to come off my PPR Big Board last week, but I have a very good feeling he’ll be on pretty much all of my redraft teams this season. Arizona cannot stop raving about him and Cardinals GM Steve Keim even went so far as to compare the third-rounder’s rookie progress to that of Anquan Boldin, who took the league by storm as a first-year player in 2003 when he posted 101 receptions. Obviously, this Arizona team is in much better shape than the one Boldin played for 11 years ago – meaning his production won’t come close to approaching Boldin’s – and the game of the 5-11, 180-pound Brown doesn’t remotely resemble the current 49er wideout. With that said, HC Bruce Arians compared the Pittsburgh State (Kansas) product to former protégés Antonio Brown and T.Y. Hilton, so it shouldn’t be overly surprising the rookie has looked the part in the preseason. Furthermore, Brown’s deep speed is a perfect for Arians’ vertical offense.

Grimes has taken a circuitous route in his short NFL career – he joined Houston as an undrafted free agent, was signed off the Texans’ practice squad by the Jets and appeared in nine games for the Jaguars in 2012 before finding his way back to Houston near the end of the 2013 season. Now, he has a prime opportunity to become a player on the wish list of many Foster owners after Andre Brown went from second-string to unemployed last week. But should Grimes be the target in the event of another Foster setback? Rookie Alfred Blue is a bigger and more talented back on an offense that will need to run the ball well this year to win. It should be noted that Blue could never stay healthy for any length of time in college, so talent and scheme fit have to be balanced out with the fact the LSU product never topped 80 rushing attempts as a Bayou Bengal. Houston added William Powell and the aging Ronnie Brown on the same day it released Brown and Dennis Johnson, so there isn’t a lot of clarity on the depth chart behind Foster at the moment. I remain convinced that Foster’s handcuff is not yet on the Texans’ roster and wouldn’t be surprised if it ended up being one of the odd men out in New England, such as Brandon Bolden, especially given HC Bill O’Brien’s Patriot roots.

A few words about one sorely underrated player: rest assured that Dobson will skyrocket up the board once I get some visual proof he is all the way back from his foot injury. A healthy Dobson is, in all likelihood, a top 40 receiver. Also ignore Cassel’s total points for now. Time doesn’t always allow me to rework a projection before my Tuesday deadline each week, but I am confident that whichever quarterback wins the job in Minnesota is poised for a pretty good year. The main question for Cassel is whether or not he can keep the job if he is named the starter. He has a very difficult schedule to begin the season, which obviously should give any potential owners pause. However, the former Patriot and Chief probably has a better supporting cast than at any point since his days as a backup in New England. Moreover, he has a strong enough arm to succeed in OC Turner’s vertical offense.

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