For many years, it was a goal of mine to keep roughly 70 percent
of the roster I drafted. Not only did this usually mean I drafted
well, but it also typically meant my team stayed relatively healthy
throughout the year. While that still may be a realistic goal for
some, I no longer believe that number is a realistic goal in most
competitive leagues. With more committees and spread attacks leading
to a more equalized distribution of opportunities, the likelihood
of players being able to contribute consistently goes down. Depending
on the players involved, I have started to buy into the notion that
I want the loser of a running back camp competition because there
is a strong chance the winner of that competition will eventually
succumb to injury, thereby leaving the “loser” as the
new feature back. Perhaps five or 10 years ago, I think it is safe
to say I believed more in the idea that fantasy success came to
those showed patience and avoided injury. I’m not so sure
that today’s NFL supports that approach.
With that said, there is a fine line between being impetuous
and patient when it comes to turning over a roster. Patience appears
to be in increasingly short supply among fantasy owners as the
years go by and doesn’t appear to be rebounding anytime soon.
In my biggest money league alone (in which every add/drop counts
against the $1000 blind-bidding bucks we begin the season with),
I have been able to acquire the likes of Eli
Manning, Jordan
Matthews and Travis
Kelce off waivers due to impatient owners. While I acquired
Manning with the intention of using him right away, I had no intention
of using the other two in the week or so after I won the bids
for their services. Long story short, many people like to talk
about how fantasy football is week-to-week. There is a lot of
truth to that, but owners that don’t use some level of long-term
vision with their rosters are doing themselves a disservice.
I had no intention of using Kelce when I acquired him prior to
Week 3 as my third tight end, but he soon became a godsend once
Kyle Rudolph went down and Charles Clay was unable to get back
to full health. I have yet to use Matthews and probably won’t
for the foreseeable future, even though I bid a pretty fair amount
to acquire him. As far as I’m concerned, it still seems
like a pretty safe bet that either Jeremy Maclin will get hurt
at some point or an inefficient Riley Cooper will see his role
reduced significantly at some point. That is not some great recent
insight on my part because I said the same thing during the offseason.
In highly competitive leagues (especially in those that don’t
employ a waiver system that resets each week), successful owners
need to be able to predict the future a bit and see what scenarios
could occur as opposed to waiting for them to happen. Obviously,
nothing in life is guaranteed to happen, but I like my chances
of Matthews becoming a high-end WR3 at least should he receive
a promotion due to a Maclin injury or Cooper demotion.
One of the most satisfying parts of being a fantasy football
analyst is having the ability to speculate or predict about players
most of America has never heard of and seeing those players take
advantage of their opportunity days or weeks later. For example,
I’m not going to pretend like I was very surprised that
Branden Oliver had a good game in Week 5. He’s a player
that stood out to me in the preseason (as
noted here) and was my top running back recommendation for
deeper-league owners a couple of
weeks ago. What did surprise me is that his breakout performance
came against the New York Jets.
The reason I mention Oliver is not to pat myself on the back
– it is my job to be a bit ahead of the curve in that regard
– but rather to display the importance of understanding
what backup players have some ability and are likely one step
away from bursting onto the scene. One thing the fantasy football
industry doesn’t do a good enough job at – and I include
myself in that group (although I think I do a better job than
most) – is making sure the rest of the world knows about
the players that might be on the back end of their NFL team’s
roster, yet capable of delivering potentially useful fantasy numbers
if they ever get a chance to prove themselves. The point of this
exercise is less about “being right” and more about
making sure each of you are familiar with the next supposed no-name
before he becomes the next, well, Branden Oliver.
As a result, I’m going to devote the rest of my time this
week to discuss players that either have no business being on
a fantasy roster right now or receiving such a light workload
they are flying well under the radar BUT closer to fantasy relevance
than you might care to recognize. I’m not going to force
the fit here, so I will list two candidates for some teams and
skip other teams completely because, in many leagues, owners are
carrying the Cleveland Browns’ No. 3 running back or the
Green Bay Packers’ No. 4 receiver. Some of the players below
will be on rosters in deeper leagues and/or in dynasty leagues
and others may be coming into some relevance this week, but the
majority of them will be names that most are either not familiar
with or only saw play in the preseason.
Arizona – WR Jaron
Brown. It’s admittedly hard to promote a fourth receiver
for a team that will likely be faced with the possibility of turning
to a raw rookie quarterback in Logan Thomas this weekend and possibly
beyond. And let’s not forget that Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton
haven’t exactly been doing the greatest job in making any one
of the Cardinals’ top three receivers consistently relevant. But
don’t think for a second that Arizona is not loaded at the position
and doesn’t have someone who could step up for Michael Floyd,
Larry Fitzgerald or even John Brown in a pinch. Of the aforementioned
top-three Arizona receivers, Jaron Brown most closely resembles
Floyd and has a bit of explosiveness to his game as well as enough
size (6-2, 205) to hold up as an outside receiver.
Honorable mention: RB Marion
Grice. I wasn’t exactly thrilled with his skill set
in college and the Chargers needed less than a month to realize
the undrafted Oliver was the better prospect. With that said,
Arizona likely sees Grice as a more versatile weapon out of the
backfield than Stepfan Taylor in the event of an injury to Andre
Ellington, who doesn’t possess the best track record for durability.
Antone Smith deserves a bigger role in
the offense.
Atlanta – RB Antone
Smith. Do you think for a second that politics, contracts
or draft status doesn’t play a role in playing time? The four-year
veteran has 17 touches to his credit this year, yet has outscored
the likes of LeSean McCoy, C.J. Spiller and even Falcons starter
Steven Jackson. With an average of 3.4 touches, it goes without
saying that Smith’s production at his current touch rate is unsustainable.
With that said, one has to wonder how much longer a player averaging
16.3 yards per touch will see fewer touches than Jacquizz Rodgers
and Devonta Freeman. HC Mike Smith has already stated that Antone
Smith has “earned more touches” and, while we all know how often
coaches say one thing and do another, one has to wonder if the
coach can seriously not give more touches to a player on a team
that could very well be in a shootout just about every week.
Baltimore – WR Marlon
Brown. The second-year veteran is one year removed
from a 49-catch, seven-score rookie season, so he isn’t exactly
an unknown. What makes Brown a bit intriguing besides his size
(6-5, 214) from a fantasy perspective is that he is a bit of a
proven quantity that is probably closer to relevance this season
than we might initially think. Maybe Steve Smith remains feisty
and maintains his current pace all season; I think we’ve learned
not to doubt him. But what if the 35-year-old starts feeling his
age a bit in November and December? It’s not out of the question
and something owners need to consider.
Buffalo – RB Bryce
Brown. Old habits die hard, I guess. Is Brown worth
a pickup if Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller stay healthy? Absolutely
not. I think the fact he has been a healthy scratch all year answers
that question. However, I think all bets are off if one of the
two backs misses more than a week or two. Let’s remember the Bills
had no problem trading a fourth-round pick for Brown or suggesting
how they see him as a potential starter shortly after they acquired
him. Perhaps his time to shine doesn’t come until 2015, although
I could easily see him leapfrogging Anthony Dixon on the depth
chart in short order if push comes to shove. Most teams like their
third running back to be a special teams contributor and Dixon
does that while Brown does not. If injuries strike, I would expect
Brown to become the complementary back capable of getting 10-12
touches.
Carolina – TE Brandon
Williams. I’m an unabashed supporter of the former
college basketball player, who saw his first action of the season
in Week 5 after showing well early in the exhibition season. Pro
Football Focus graded him out as the best run-blocking tight end
on the roster in the preseason (not to mention the best overall
tight end on the team, for whatever that is worth in exhibition
play), but it was his pure athleticism that stood out the most
to me. In the event of a Greg Olsen injury, I suspect that Williams
would become the best option at the position and a candidate to
post top-15 numbers among all tight ends. Second-stringer Ed
Dickson has already proven he isn’t consistent enough to be
anything more than a second tight end.
Chicago – RB Ka’Deem
Carey. The insanely productive University of Arizona
alum is a bit of an acquired taste. Carey is not overly flashy
and his measurables won’t exactly make him the talk of fantasy
analysts everywhere, but perhaps no other back in May’s draft
gets more out of his ability than this fourth-round pick. He’s
not overly quick and stack move upon move on his defender, yet
he is still elusive and knows when it is time to finish a run.
He also is one Matt Forte injury away from potentially emerging
as a fantasy RB1. Like Knile Davis in Kansas City, Carey isn’t
going to steal significant work from the more established back
anytime soon, but he’s good enough to hold the fort down if the
starter cannot go.
Dallas – Joseph
Randle. It is unthinkable to me that DeMarco Murray
is on pace to tie the league record for most touches by a running
back in league history and neither one of his backups (Randle
or Lance Dunbar) are owned in the majority of leagues. In other
words, the handcuff for the top-scoring running back in fantasy,
who just happens to run behind one of the best offensive lines
in the league and has yet to prove he can stay healthy for an
entire season, is available and owners aren’t falling all over
themselves to stash him? This is extreme arrogance, ignorance
or indifference and needs to change. How many more top-flight
runners need to go down this year before the lesson gets learned
that backs are not a good bet to make it through an entire season
– especially ones on track to get 416 touches. Of all the players
on this list, I consider Randle the top stash.
Denver – RB Juwan
Thompson. Another player from my preseason watch list,
I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the undrafted free agent
out of Duke emerges as the leader of the backfield committee that
will try to fill the void left behind by Montee Ball over the
next 2-3 weeks. To his credit, Ronnie Hillman is much improved
over last season and will likely be first in line to establish
relevancy in fantasy, but he has failed in this spot more than
once already. C.J. Anderson would typically be my favorite to
be the lead back in Ball’s absence, although coaches tend to gravitate
toward the most versatile players when push comes to shove. Thompson
plays special teams (Anderson does not) and earned praise for
his ability as a pass blocker (not exactly a strong suit of Hillman)
prior to the season.
Detroit – RB Theo
Riddick. The somewhat-overhyped 5-9, 200-pound scatback
missed out on his chance in Week 5 for fantasy relevance due to
a hamstring injury. However, he could be on track to return in
Week 6 to a backfield that may be without Reggie Bush for a week
or two and is hoping that Joique Bell recovers fully from a concussion.
It is not unreasonable to think that even with a healthy Bell
(assuming Bush does miss two weeks), Riddick picks up Bush’s “satellite”
back role in his absence, albeit to a slightly lesser extent.
Green Bay – WR Jeff
Janis. For those poor souls that watched the Thursday
Night Football game until the bitter end last week, you were blessed
to watch 11 of the rookie’s 12 snaps in the NFL. Although his
two-catch, 26-yard performance wasn’t exactly the stuff of legend,
let’s first consider that very few seventh-round picks from Saginaw
Valley State make a practice squad, much less a 53-man roster.
But at 6-3 and 220 pounds with 4.4 speed and 37.5-inch vertical
jump, Janis isn’t exactly a try-hard small-school guy who is just
a feel-good story. QB Aaron Rodgers has proven year after year
he can make three, if not four receivers, viable in fantasy. So
with Jarrett Boykin out for the foreseeable future, Janis is one
step away from being a top-three option in the Green Bay passing
attack.
Houston – QB Ryan
Mallett. I discussed the former Patriot two weeks ago
and believe the majority of his accuracy issues stem from inconsistent
footwork. It seems like a pretty good bet that HC Bill O’Brien
– a noted developer of quarterbacks – is making sure he is putting
Mallett through the paces behind the scenes. It is still very
hard for me to believe anybody deeply involved with the Texans
wants to see a full year of Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starter. If/when
Mallett receives his promotion, I’d expect Andre Johnson and DeAndre
Hopkins to quickly become much hotter properties in fantasy than
they are at the moment simply because Mallett can push the ball
down the field effortlessly.
Indianapolis – WR Donte
Moncrief. I feel bad for even suggesting the rookie
here because, quite frankly, he should already be on the radar
of just about every owner in a 12-team (or bigger) league. Hakeem
Nicks isn’t quite as bad as he was in New York over the previous
two seasons, but it is going to be hard for him to keep a freakish
talent like Moncrief behind him on the depth chart all season.
Still, the reason the rookie gets a mention here is because in
the event of an injury to Reggie Wayne or T.Y. Hilton, I would
expect Moncrief – and not Hicks – to see his fantasy stock soar.
Jacksonville – RB Storm
Johnson. "How can you argue the fact that Storm ...
showed up and did some good things," Jaguars HC Gus Bradley told
The Florida Times-Union earlier this week about his seventh-round
rookie after a four-carry, 27-yard performance. I can argue it,
but it would require your belief in me that OC Jedd Fisch schemed
up a nice counter run for the first time this year and managed
to get Johnson into the secondary untouched for a 20-yard gain.
At the end of the day, all coaches and fantasy owners want is
production and few people (including the coaches) are going to
remember or care that Toby Gerhart or Denard Robinson could have
taken the same run 20 yards or more themselves. The point to be
made here is that Jacksonville now seems to believe it may have
its spark in the running game and it isn’t Gerhart or Robinson.
I’d be stunned if the Jags don’t trot out Johnson as the early-down
back and Jordan Todman as the change-of-pace/third-down back this
weekend in a plus-matchup against the Titans. To his credit, Johnson
showed good burst and cut-back ability on the four runs he did
get, so I expect Jacksonville will not be shy about giving him
at least 10-12 carries versus Tennessee to see if it can get its
running game on track.
Honorable mention: RB Henry Josey.
I’m becoming more and more convinced by the week the Jaguars don’t
have much of a clue about what they want to do in the running
game. One reason for that harsh assessment has to do with keeping
the undrafted free agent out of Missouri on the practice squad.
Josey is a bit smallish (5-8, 194) to be anything more than a
committee back, but in the absence of consistent blocking up front,
it is often helpful for teams to use screens and swing passes
to serve as an extension of the running game. In a backfield that
is sorely lacking a dynamic playmaker that can do some things
in the open field, Josey and his poor man’s Darren Sproles-like
skill set could make life a bit easier on rookie QB Blake Bortles.
Minnesota – RB Joe
Banyard. The third-leading rusher in the 2014 preseason,
Banyard is something of a fringe NFL talent. Then again, many
have said the same thing about teammate Matt Asiata, who is currently
a top-10 fantasy back in most leagues. If something were to happen
to Asiata, the much smaller and shiftier Banyard may actually
steal lead-back duties from Jerick McKinnon since the rookie still
has much work to do as a blocker and receiver. At the very least,
I think it is a safe assumption McKinnon and Banyard would split
carries. If McKinnon were to get hurt, then I feel confident Banyard
would essentially move right into the rookie’s current role.
New England – WR Brian
Tyms. The true inspiration behind this column idea
(really). If not for a bye-week crunch in my dynasty league, Tyms
would be on my roster as we speak. Trying to predict which receivers
QB Tom Brady will connect with can sometimes be an exercise in
futility, but the need for downfield playmakers in the Patriots’
passing game has been evident more than ever this year. Enter
Tyms, who was one of the standouts of the preseason and has the
kind of athleticism that the rest of the New England receivers
just don’t possess. Perhaps he won’t connect with Brady the same
way he did with Jimmy Garoppolo during exhibition play, but I’d
be willing to bet decent money that Tyms I saw in August – the
6-3, 204-pounder who ran a 4.48 with a 10’ 10” broad jump and
39 ½” vertical at Florida A&M's 2012 Pro Day and graded out as
PFF’s top receiver in the preseason - will make an impact in redraft
leagues before the end of the season.
New Orleans – RB Travaris
Cadet. The Appalachian State product wasn’t quite ready
for prime time last year, but his recent snap counts are trending
upwards in 2014. Cadet is the Saints’ primary kick returner and
yet another player that is a poor man’s Sproles. New Orleans obviously
did a fine job of filling that void by drafting WR Brandin Cooks,
although Sproles is probably one Pierre Thomas injury away from
being a relatively strong flex play in PPR formats.
Oakland – RB Latavius
Murray. Despite the presence of two former fantasy
studs in front of him on the depth chart, there’s actually plenty
of reason to believe Murray will be relevant at some point in
the next month or two. First and foremost, interim HC Tony Sparano
wants to commit to the running game (what coach doesn’t?). Secondly,
Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden may end up taking turns
missing games with injuries given their recent history. Last but
not least, Murray probably gives the Raiders a big-play threat
out of the backfield that the older backs can’t bring anymore
at this point of their careers. Oakland would be wise to start
playing for 2015 soon, so it wouldn’t be the worst idea to give
an extended look to the 225-pound size-speed specimen.
Seattle – TE Luke
Willson. The second-year veteran out of Rice has the
build (6-5, 252) of a tight end that should be a good receiver
and blocker, but he is only the former at the moment. Willson
played all but five snaps of the Seahawks’ Monday Night Football
victory over Washington and is likely to draw another start in
Week 6 as Zach Miller works his way back from an ankle scope during
the team’s bye week. The matchup for Willson couldn’t get much
better this week as the Dallas defense that gives up the most
fantasy points to his position comes to town.
Tampa Bay – RB Charles
Sims. This feels like I’m cheating a bit, but as we
approach Week 6, it is easy to forget how much the new Bucs’ coaching
staff raved about their third-round rookie prior to his ankle
surgery in August. He’s eligible to come off short-term injured
reserve this week, although he is likely out at least another
month. At any rate, it seems hard to believe Doug Martin or Bobby
Rainey has done enough to this point to make Sims a non-factor
if/when he returns. Much like the situation in Jacksonville, Tampa
Bay’s offensive line hasn’t done much to help Martin or Rainey
consistently succeed, so if Sims returns just as the Bucs begin
to gel up front, they may feel some pressure to go with the “hot
hand” at that point. (Side note: if any reader knew how much it
aggravates me when coaches use the phrase “hot hand” in reference
to how they intend on splitting up time in their backfield, you
know just typing the phrase “hot hand” pains me. But that is a
story for another time…)
Tennessee – QB Zach
Mettenberger. Given HC Ken Whisenhunt’s five-plus week
crash course on improving Bishop Sankey's footwork, I have every
right to do a write-up on him here. That would be too easy, however,
so I’ll turn to his draft classmate instead. It appears as if
Jake Locker’s body (or luck) isn’t long for the NFL and I’m fairly
certain Charlie Whitehurst has never been anything close to an
average NFL starter, so thanks to process of elimination, we arrive
at Mettenberger. While he isn’t quite the prospect that Mallett
was coming out of college, there are many similarities between
the two tall and relatively immobile quarterbacks. If Mettenberger
is handed the starting job at any point, it is possible that Justin
Hunter would have a shot to be something more than the inconsistent
fantasy WR3 he’s been to this point in 2014.
Washington – WR Ryan
Grant. Even if one or two of the top three receivers
get hurt (Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson or Andre Roberts), there
a strong chance the remaining top-three receiver and a combination
of Jordan Reed and Niles Paul step up to fill the void. In other
words, Grant has a lot of quality obstacles to overcome in order
to become a potential fantasy contributor. Nevertheless, Grant
was a preseason standout and someone who showed a fair amount
of chemistry with QB Kirk Cousins in Week 2 after Jackson left
early due to a shoulder injury. The bond a backup quarterback
tends to build with a No. 3 or No. 4 receiver should never be
underestimated by owners looking for an under-the-radar receiver
(look no further than Minnesota with Teddy Bridgewater and Jarius
Wright as a recent example). Just because Cousins has been working
with the starters for a few weeks now, there is still a pretty
good chance he would click with Grant again if the rookie from
Tulane was to get more than a handful of snaps.
Suggestions, comments, about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006 and has been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football
Preview magazine since 2010. He has hosted USA Today’s hour-long,
pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday over the
past two seasons and appears as a guest analyst before and during
the season on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” as well
as 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). Doug is also a
member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |