Road to the Super Bowl
1/31/13
Whether you are still basking in the success you enjoyed in cruising
to your fantasy league's title, still smarting over your teams'
inability to close the deal or not quite ready to hang up your owner's
hat quite yet, playoff fantasy football may be just the thing you
need to end this season right.
I'll be the first to admit that playoff fantasy football doesn't
appeal to me quite as much as the usual 16-week marathon, but
that doesn't mean I don't still enjoy it. And coming off my most
profitable fantasy season yet, I'm looking to make a great season
even better. For better or for worse, I want to share my experience
with you (no matter which category mentioned in the first paragraph
you may fall under) in hopes that some of you can end this season
on a definite high note.
In addition to owning one NFL.com team, I will be taking part
in several money leagues with Fuzzy's Fantasy Football. My goal
over the next four weeks will be to help each of you through your
decision-making process as you attempt to boost your bottom line.
NFL.com
For a complete rundown of how players will score fantasy points
for your team, click on the “Official Rules” link
on the NFL.com entry page. However, much of the content immediately
below is included on the “How to Play” page, so what
I provide here should be more than enough to follow along easily.
The object of the game is to pick the players you think will perform
best in their playoff matchup. Select one QB, two RBs, two WRs,
one TE, one K and one D/ST. You will earn fantasy points based
on their on-field performance during their game, and if your player's
team wins, you will have the option to carry that player over
to the next round, where he will earn a bonus point modifier to
his score.
NFL.com Scoring System |
Offense Statistic (QB, RB, WR, TE, K) |
Fantasy Points |
Rushing or Receiving Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Passing Touchdown: |
4 fantasy points |
Field Goal: |
3 fantasy points |
Passing, Rushing or Receiving Two-Point
Conversion: |
2 fantasy points |
Rushing or Receiving: |
1 fantasy point per 10 yards |
Passing: |
1 fantasy point per 25 yards |
Extra Point: |
1 fantasy point |
Defense/Special Teams (D/ST) |
|
Punt Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Kickoff Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Fumble Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Interception Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Allowing 0 Points: |
10 fantasy points |
Allowing 2-6 Points: |
7 fantasy points |
Allowing 7-13 Points: |
4 fantasy points |
Allowing 14-17 Points: |
1 fantasy points |
Allowing 18-21 Points: |
0 fantasy points |
Allowing 22-27 Points: |
-1 fantasy points |
Allowing 28-34 Points: |
-4 fantasy points |
Allowing 35-45 Points: |
-7 fantasy points |
Allowing 46+ Points: |
-10 fantasy points |
Team Win: |
5 fantasy points |
Interception: |
2 fantasy points |
Fumble Recovery: |
2 fantasy points |
Blocked Punt: |
2 fantasy points |
Blocked Field Goal or Blocked Extra
Point: |
2 fantasy points |
Safety: |
2 fantasy points |
Sack: |
1 fantasy points |
|
Before we get into the picks, let’s briefly review the
rules and how we may use them to our advantage: 1) passing TDs
are worth four points, so passing yards are valued more highly
here than in the Fuzzy’s leagues I’ll discuss later;
2) all field goals under 50 yards are worth three points, which
means we are more concerned about volume of field goals than distance
– unless we can find a kicker who regularly converts from
50+; 3) this is a non-PPR format, which obviously favors the big-play
threats; and 4) team wins are worth five points, so picking a
“winning” defense is worth almost a touchdown and
could be worth as much as 3.5 TDs if you pick a defense from this
week and that team ends up winning the Super Bowl.
At this point, it becomes pretty clear: pick the player who you
believe will perform the best in this game unless you have a player
with 2x, 3x or 4x by his name.
Quarterbacks
Colin Kaepernick/Joe Flacco
After a regular season which he couldn’t seem to buy a
decent game on the road, Flacco has added to his reputation as
a very good playoff quarterback by helping the Ravens defeat two
teams Baltimore probably had no shot of beating a month earlier.
His supporters will suggest that Flacco simply needed former OC
Cam Cameron to leave in order to fulfill his potential. A closer
look reveals Baltimore is running more now than it did under Cameron
(49% now, 40% under Cameron), which would seem to suggest new
OC Jim Caldwell felt Flacco could do more for the team by doing
less. Kaepernick has quickly proven he is able to beat defenses
as a runner AND passer, so his effectiveness this week (and down
the road) will usually come down to whether or not the unblocked
defensive end is instructed to charge Kaepernick on the zone-read
play, leaving the other 10 defenders to account for Gore.
The call: Colin
Kaepernick (x2). Even though I predicted a Niners-Patriots
Super Bowl last week, I ultimately went with Kaepernick over Brady
because I felt he had a better conference championship matchup
than either AFC quarterback. His running ability stabilizes his
fantasy value, which makes him something of a safe bet on a weekly
basis. Like several other choices we will discuss shortly, this
is a call I made last week and still believe in now.
Running Backs
Frank Gore/LaMichael James/Ray Rice/Bernard Pierce
Gore is the unquestioned back in San Francisco and has benefited
in a big way from the running threat that Kaepernick provides.
Despite my continued displeasure about Rice’s on-again,
off-again usage, the fact of the matter is that Pierce is producing.
In the AFC title game, it’s not hard to argue that Pierce
was the best runner on either side. Still, Rice is averaging just
under a touch less per game than Gore in the postseason and is
the team’s goal-line back, making him a clear choice.
The call: Frank
Gore (x2) and Ray
Rice. The 2x multiplier makes Gore a no-brainer (as if he
wasn’t already), but Pierce is getting enough playing time
now – and doing enough with it – that he could be
a sneaky play over Rice as defenses continue to be baffled by
the rookie’s deceptive size-speed combination. Still, the
time to worry about Pierce’s drain on Rice is next summer.
For now, I’m perfectly fine using two top-10 fantasy backs
during the regular season in the final week of this competition.
Wide Receivers
Michael Crabtree/Randy Moss/Anquan Boldin/Torrey Smith
At this point of the contest, the multi-selection positions (RB
and WR) often come down to selecting the top man on the depth
chart from each side. For the Niners, the choice is easy since
Crabtree has been the leading fantasy receiver for San Francisco
every week since Week 12. But what about the Ravens? Doesn’t
a receiver that burns Champ Bailey twice for touchdowns in the
same game get the nod over his teammate who has essentially posted
two big quarters out of the 13+ Baltimore has played this postseason?
Boldin doesn’t get much separation anymore, but his ability
to pluck key throws out of the air in tight coverage may be the
single biggest reason the Ravens find themselves in the Super
Bowl. While many have been quick to praise the changes Caldwell
has made to the offense, it has been Baltimore’s inability
to get Boldin established earlier and more often which has stuck
out to me the most. If the Ravens do not make it a high priority
to establish Boldin early and often in this game, they will not
have little chance to win the franchise’s second Super Bowl.
The call: Michael
Crabtree (x2) and Anquan
Boldin. Much like Gore above, Crabtree is an obvious choice
given the multiplier and his standing as Kaepernick’s favorite
receiver. The selection of Boldin is a trickier one given that
Boldin has twice entered halftime with zero catches during the
postseason. With that said, Boldin has been a huge part of the
offense since he was shut out in Week 15 by the Broncos (or the
week after Caldwell took over as the play caller). Boldin is an
unexciting option, but it has become clear late in the season
that Flacco trusts Boldin and Dennis Pitta in the red zone.
Tight Ends
Vernon Davis/Dennis Pitta/Delanie Walker
Perhaps it shouldn’t have been all that surprising that
Davis exploded against a Falcons defense that allowed an injured
Zach Miller to tear them apart. While it is certainly possible
the NFC Championship was the beginning of a long beautiful on-field
friendship between Kaepernick and Davis, I’m willing to
chalk up Davis’ vintage performance to the complete indifference
Atlanta showed to the tight end position over its final two games.
I highly doubt the Ravens will let Davis run open as often as
he did against the Falcons. Pitta doesn’t excite me a great
deal, but like Boldin, he has emerged as one of Flacco’s
most trusted receivers in the short passing game – including
the red zone.
The call: Dennis
Pitta. As far as I’m concerned, this could be a toss-up
given that Davis may be on the verge of re-establishing a 1A/1B
status with Crabtree. Unfortunately, I need more than one game
to make that call and it is not as if Baltimore has been surrendering
big games to tight ends lately anyway. Davis’ blocking ability
will likely be needed in this game as Terrell Suggs is starting
to round into form and Paul Kruger has emerged as the team’s
most consistent pass rusher. As a result, it’s entirely
possible that Walker has a bigger game than Davis. The Ravens
have no such issue with Pitta, understanding he is more slot receiver
than blocker.
Kickers
David Akers/Justin Tucker
Surprisingly, Akers and Tucker have combined for four field-goal
attempts (two each) and 22 extra points this postseason, making
the choice at kicker even more of a coin flip than it usually
is. Ultimately, I think the selection boils down to the fact that
Tucker is 32-for-35 this season (including playoffs) while Akers
is 30-for-43. Perhaps Akers benefits a bit more from kicking indoors,
but I have a feeling San Francisco will force Baltimore into more
field goals than its previous opponents have.
The call: Justin
Tucker. Akers has missed at least one field-goal attempt in
four of his last five games while Tucker has missed three attempts
all season. When it is put in that context, the rookie is the
better choice.
Defense/Special Teams
49ers/Ravens
As one might expect when 12 of the best teams in the league get
together, defense has not been a haven for fantasy points during
these playoffs. I don’t expect that trend to stop just because
John and Jim Harbaugh will line their defensive-minded squads
up against one another. San Francisco and Baltimore figure to
both stick with the run as long as possible and haven’t
shown a penchant to giving their opponents much to work with in
the way of sacks and turnovers.
The call: Niners. Perhaps I haven’t
given the Ravens nearly enough credit over these last few weeks,
but I frankly have not been impressed with them in any of their
games. Baltimore has surrendered 400+ yards in two of the three
contests and 398 yards in the other, benefiting from a pathetic
defensive play by Rahim Moore one game and New England’s
refusal to stick with what was working in the first half for the
entirety of the AFC Championship. The Niners haven’t exactly
set the world on fire with their defensive play, but the case
could be made they were able to shut down the Packers and Falcons
– two teams with better passing attacks than the Ravens
– once they got settled in to each of those games. I expect
a relatively low-scoring game and am banking on San Francisco
snagging the “team win” bonus.
Fearless predictions for my selected team:
Kaepernick: 230 passing yards, one passing TD, 35 rushing yards,
one rushing TD (22 x 2 = 44 fantasy points)
Gore: 70 rushing yards, one rushing TD, 25 receiving yards (15
x 2 = 30 points)
Rice: 60 rushing yards, 30 receiving yards (nine points)
Crabtree: 110 receiving yards, one receiving TD (17 x 2 = 34 points)
Boldin: 75 receiving yards (seven points)
Pitta: 45 receiving yards, one receiving TD (10 points)
Tucker: one extra point, three field goals (10 points)
Niners DST: 16 PA, two sacks, one turnover and a team win (10
points)
Projected Total: 153 fantasy
points
Week 1 Total: 73
Week 2 Total: 155
Week 3 Total: 123
Fearless Super Bowl prediction: Niners
24, Ravens 22
Fuzzy’s
Many of the scoring parameters used above apply here as well,
with the key differences being that Fuzzy’s uses PPR scoring
and there are no bonus point modifiers or team-win points. Kickers
get four points for field goals between 40-49 yards and six points
for 60+ while all TDs are worth six points. Your goal is to pick
the highest-scoring lineup each week with no strings attached.
Additionally, each owner is asked to select a tiebreaker every
week which will be used to break any ties following the Super
Bowl. Fuzzy's leagues contain no more than 50 teams in a league
whereas most other major sites employ a one-man-against-the-world
approach. As a result, 20% of the entrants into Fuzzy's playoff
leagues will - at the very least - recoup their entry fee, with
first through ninth place receiving a nice return on investment
for their troubles. Follow this
link for a complete list of the rules.
Position Requirements: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1
Defense/Special Teams
Since I will be playing with several teams with Fuzzy’s
this season, I’ll simply list my teams below and present
a brief overview on my overall thought process. Depending on how
strongly I feel about matchups in a given week, I may use the
same lineup in more than one league.
Fuzzy Portfolio -
Conference Championships |
|
Team 1 |
Team 2 |
Team 3 |
Team 4 |
QB |
Kaepernick |
Kaepernick |
Kaepernick |
Kaepernick |
RB |
Gore |
Gore |
Gore |
Gore |
RB |
Rice |
Rice |
Rice |
Rice |
WR |
Boldin |
Crabtree |
Crabtree |
Crabtree |
WR |
Crabtree |
Jones |
Welker |
Welker |
WR |
Welker |
Welker |
White |
White |
TE |
Hernandez |
Hernandez |
Hernandez |
Gonzalez |
K |
Gostkowski |
Bryant |
Gostkowski |
Gostkowski |
DST |
Patriots |
Patriots |
Patriots |
Patriots |
Tie |
Brady |
Brady |
Brady |
Brady |
WC Pt Total |
94.9 |
84.8 |
119.6 |
99.6 |
DR Pt Total |
155.5 |
163.5 |
155.5 |
165.2 |
CC Pt Total |
133.1 |
156.3 |
139.1 |
133.1 |
|
I thought I learned my lesson last season (and for the most part,
I did), but playoff fantasy football has been less about matchups
in recent years and more about individual talent. This seems to
particularly true at receiver, which is probably the hardest position
for me to evaluate and forecast from a fantasy perspective during
the regular season as well. Last year at this time, I was guilty
of paying too much attention to the way the Saints defended Calvin
Johnson in their regular-season matchup – as well as Megatron’s
late-season drop in production – that caused me the greatest
pain. The award this season goes to Julio Jones after I chose to
give the Niners’ defense more credit than it deserved. Then
again, each year is a learning process and hindsight is often 20/20.
Fuzzy Portfolio -
Super Bowl |
|
Team 1 |
Team 2 |
Team 3 |
Team 4 |
QB |
Kaepernick |
Kaepernick |
Kaepernick |
Kaepernick |
RB |
Gore |
Gore |
Gore |
Gore |
RB |
Rice |
Rice |
Rice |
Rice |
WR |
Boldin |
Boldin |
Boldin |
Boldin |
WR |
Crabtree |
Crabtree |
Crabtree |
Crabtree |
WR |
Smith |
Smith |
Smith |
Smith |
TE |
Pitta |
Pitta |
Pitta |
Davis |
K |
Tucker |
Tucker |
Tucker |
Tucker |
DST |
Ravens |
Ravens |
Niners |
Ravens |
Tie |
Flacco |
Flacco |
Flacco |
Flacco |
|
So did you hear the one about Flacco and “his camp”
believing he is playing better than Peyton Manning? Wait…what?
It’s not a joke? Look, I understand the best aren’t
always the best and that good quarterbacks can sometimes outperform
great ones, but the notion that Flacco has ever consistently played
at a higher level – and deserves to be paid more – than
Manning is ludicrous. And the notion that Baltimore was foolish
not to lock up a quarterback that posted just one 100+ QB rating
on the road during the regular season is every bit as foolish. While
throwing more deep balls than any other quarterback in the league
helps explain why Flacco hasn’t completed 60% of his passes
in either of the last two seasons, there is a reason the Ravens
are running more – not less – under new OC Jim Caldwell.
As far as the running backs and receivers, there really isn’t
much to dissect. Both teams love to run the ball and lean on their
bellcow RBs when they can, using their quarterbacks’ strong
arms to make big plays down the field when the opportunity arises.
I expect a desperate owner or two will start Pierce or James in
the hopes they can catch lightning in a bottle, but the smart choices
are pretty clear. The same can really be said at receiver, where
Randy Moss or Jacoby Jones could get behind the defense for a surprise
touchdown. Yet again, Boldin, Crabtree and Smith make the most sense.
There will be those owners that decide that Davis’ 6-106-1
line against the Falcons was a sign that Kaepernick is lessening
his dependence on Crabtree and willing to spread the wealth a bit
more. After Zach Miller’s eight-catch, 142-yard, one-score
performance on a bad foot one week earlier against the same defense,
consider me a bit skeptical. Neither defense has been particularly
gracious to opposing tight ends, but Baltimore has been particularly
stingy. Throw in the likelihood that San Francisco is probably going
to do its best to keep the Ravens from throwing the deep ball and
you have a recipe for a lot of short, chain-moving throws –
exactly the area in which Pitta excels.
I’m not going to waste a lot of words on the kicker position
as I already discussed it above. Baltimore trusts Tucker from 50+
yards (4-of-4), something that I doubt the Niners can honestly say
about Akers (2-of-6). The Ravens’ fantasy defense has been
the highest scoring D/ST of all the units this postseason and has
forced twice as many turnovers (eight) as the next-closest team
(three-way tie at four). I’d be mildly surprised if either
offense turns the ball over more than once or gives up more than
three sacks, but Kaepernick’s tendency to buy time on passing
plays may work in Baltimore’s favor with Paul Kruger emerging
and Terrell Suggs looking more like his pre-injury self. In the
end, I expect the fantasy-point difference between the two defenses
to be negligible, with a Jacoby Jones’ kick return TD serving
as the one unknown that could make the Ravens a potentially great
play.
Suggestions, comments, musings about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA
Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last
two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for
106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member
of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |