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Doug Orth | Archive | Email | Twitter
Staff Writer

Red Zone Report - 2011
Preseason Matchup Analysis
7/3/12

A d v e r t i s e m e n t

Touchdowns are the lifeblood of fantasy football. In most cases, they are highly volatile despite the fact that most teams endlessly scheme to make sure 2-3 players are the primary options in the red zone. There are many reasons for this, but it doesn’t change the fact that during a given NFL game, the unplanned happens with regularity. For example, a fullback may vulture the short score that was originally earmarked for the team’s goal-line specialist or a team’s fourth receiver gets a bit lucky on a tipped pass meant for another receiver and comes down with the ball in the end zone.

For the most part, one of the jobs of a successful fantasy football owner is to be able to discern what exactly can be considered lucky and what is repeatable. In other words, it is beneficial to place your chips on the event that is most likely to happen while also reducing the number of resources (i.e. players in your fantasy lineup) that essentially need to count on a breakdown or mistake from the defense to get their points. So how exactly do we measure this?

One of the older fantasy football adages is that more opportunities tend to lead to more success. Over the next two weeks, I will provide you with the kind of information that you may not find anywhere else. This week, my goal is simply to break down what each of the 32 teams did in the red zone last season – individually as well as a team – in an effort to give you some idea as to how that offense attacked defenses. What players were their team’s “bellcow” inside the 20? How often did Michael Turner or Arian Foster score when he was given a red-zone carry? How many times did Larry Fitzgerald or Marques Colston get targeted in scoring territory? Which teams were balanced and which teams were unbalanced with their red-zone play-calling?

Obviously, I just touched on a few of the applications for the data I’m about to present as I attempted to give both player and team equal time in my analysis. Over the coming years, I hope to expand on this research and identify year-to-year trends among players and teams that remain with their team and scheme and/or keep the same supporting cast from one year to the next. For now, take a few minutes to review each category I have provided and try to understand why that team opted to do what it did and the possible resulting carryover for 2012.

Last but not least, I need to give a tip of the cap to FF Today’s very own Sal Marcoccio, whose Offensive Focus article basically provided me with the last bit of information I needed to make this an all-encompassing piece. In addition to the solid points he made in the article, his run-pass ratios tie in nicely with the red-zone numbers this article contains.

With that out of the way, allow me to explain what each of the headers mean before we get started with my overview on each team’s red-zone attack philosophy last season:

Att – Pass Attempts
Cmp – Completions
PaTD – Pass TD
PaTD % - The rate at which a red-zone pass attempt resulted in a red-zone touchdown pass
RuAtt – Rush Attempt
RuAtt % - The percentage of red-zone carries a player had for his team (For example, Beanie Wells secured 32 of Arizona’s 52 red-zone carries, meaning he had 61.5% of his team’s red-zone rushing attempts.)
RuTD – Rush TD
RuTD % - The rate at which a red-zone rush attempt resulted in a red-zone touchdown run
Tar – Red-zone targets
Tar % - The percentage of red-zone targets a player had for his team (For example, Larry Fitzgerald secured 17 of Arizona’s 51 red-zone passing attempts, meaning he had 33.3% of his team’s red-zone targets.)
Rec – Red-zone receptions
ReTD – Receiving TD
ReTD% - The rate at which a red-zone reception resulted in a red-zone touchdown reception
RZ Pass % - The percentage that an offense attempted a pass in the red zone
Pass % - The percentage that an offense attempted a pass, regardless of field position
RZ Run % - The percentage that an offense attempted a run in the red zone
Run % - The percentage that an offense attempted a run, regardless of field position

Note: the very detailed-oriented readers will notice that the targets do not always equal the number of pass attempts in the “totals” row. This discrepancy comes as a result of occurrences such as clock-killing “spikes” in the red zone that do not have an intended receiver.

ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC
MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | OAK | PHI | PIT | SD | SEA | SF | STL | TB | TEN | WAS

 Arizona Cardinals
Pos Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt % RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB John Skelton 28 16 8 28.6 2 3.8 0 0
QB Kevin Kolb 19 10 3 15.8 3 5.8 0 0
QB Richard Bartel 4 1 0 0
RB Beanie Wells 32 61.5 10 31.3 2 3.9 1 0 0
RB Chester Taylor 6 11.5 1 16.7 3 5.9 1 0 0
RB Alfonso Smith 6 11.5 1 16.7
RB LaRod Stephens-H 3 5.8 0 0 3 5.9 3 0 0
WR Larry Fitzgerald 17 33.3 10 4 40
WR Early Doucet 11 21.6 6 3 50
WR Andre Roberts 6 11.8 3 2 66.7
WR Chansi Stuckey 1 2 0 0 0
TE Jeff King 4 7.8 2 1 50
TE Todd Heap 2 3.9 1 1 100
Totals 51 27 11 21.6% 52 99.9 12 23.1% 49 96.1 27 11 40.7% 49.5% 60.8% 50.5% 39.2%

The Cardinals were the NFL’s most-balanced team inside the 20 last season, running 52 times and throwing 51. Given how HC Ken Whisenhunt has been trying to move in that direction since his arrival in 2007, this is hardly surprising. They were also one of 17 teams that ran the ball more often in the red zone. What was a bit more astonishing was the fact Larry Fitzgerald finished just tied for ninth with his 17 red-zone looks, but in his typical fashion, his 33% target rate was the third-highest mark at his position. As for the running game, Beanie Wells was just one of only running backs that commanded over 60% of his team’s red-zone rushing attempts and one of 16 backs to finish over 50%. Even if Ryan Williams comes back healthy for 2012, I wouldn’t expect him to eat too much into Wells’ touches inside the 20, but rather steal all the touches Chester Taylor and Alfonso Smith had last season. Early Doucet saw just two fewer red zone targets than the rest of his non-Fitzgerald teammates did combined, which stands out since he was splitting time with Andre Roberts for most of the season. To what degree rookie Michael Floyd will affect Doucet’s red-zone role may very well determine which player is the most deserving of a WR4 role in fantasy.

 Atlanta Falcons
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Matt Ryan 79 38 18 22.8 2 2.4 2 100
RB Michael Turner 59 71.1 9 15.3 1 1.3 0 0 0
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 13 15.7 1 7.7 6 7.6 2 0 0
RB Jason Snelling 8 9.6 0 0 6 7.6 3 0 0
RB Ovie Mughelli 1 1.2 0 0 2 2.5 2 2 100
WR Roddy White 29 36.7 13 7 53.8
WR Julio Jones 8 10.1 4 2 50
WR Harry Douglas 4 5.1 2 0 0
WR Eric Weems 1 1.3 0 0 0
TE Tony Gonzalez 16 20.3 9 6 66.7
TE Michael Palmer 4 5.1 3 1 33.3
Totals 79 38 18 22.8% 83 100 12 14.5% 77 97.6 38 18 47.4% 48.8% 57.8% 51.2% 42.2%

It is notable that Matt Ryan finished in a three-way tie for fifth in the league with 79 red-zone attempts. On the negative side, Ryan completed fewer passes inside the 20 then Ryan Fitzpatrick or Mark Sanchez (the two quarterbacks he tied with) and threw for fewer touchdowns despite the fact he had better weapons. For whatever reason, his 2011 numbers – specifically completion percentage and passing scores – inside the red zone were down significantly from 2010. Not surprisingly, his favorite target inside the 20 was Roddy White, who garnered a league-high 29 targets and finished second in the NFL behind Dwayne Bowe with the highest target percentage rate. It was eye-catching to discover Tony Gonzalez had twice as many targets as Julio Jones, something I suspect will change this season if Jones can avoid the nagging injuries that have hindered him dating back to his college days. For a team that stubbornly continued to remain a balanced offense despite another second-half collapse from Michael Turner, it still comes as a surprise that Atlanta was fourth in the league with 83 red-zone rushing attempts. Another statistic that stood out was the regularity with which the diminutive Jacquizz Rodgers saw the ball in scoring position. Perhaps speculation that he will be used in a Darren Sproles-like role in new OC Dirk Koetter’s offense isn’t that far off, especially since Atlanta finally sounds serious about reducing Turner’s role.

 Baltimore Ravens
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Joe Flacco 54 22 11 20.4 7 10.4 1 14.3
QB Tyrod Taylor 0 0 0 1 1.5 0 0
RB Ray Rice 1 1 1 100 47 70.1 10 21.3 5 9.1 3 1 33.3
RB Ricky Williams 9 13.4 2 22.2 1 1.8 0 0 0
RB Vonta Leach 3 4.5 0 0 7 12.7 2 0 0
WR Anquan Boldin 12 21.8 4 1 25
WR Torrey Smith 8 14.5 2 2 100
WR Lee Evans 3 5.5 0 0 0
WR Tandon Doss 1 1.8 0 0 0
TE Ed Dickson 12 21.8 9 5 55.6
TE Dennis Pitta 5 9.1 3 3 100
Totals 55 23 12 21.8% 67 99.9 13 19.4% 54 98.1 23 12 52.2% 45.1% 55.7% 54.9% 44.3%

As expected, not a single full-time running back managed more red-zone TOUCHES than his full-time quarterback did pass attempts. One of the two backs that finished the closest was Ray Rice, whose 51 combined touches (47 rushes, five catches and one TD pass) was just three short of Joe Flacco’s 54 pass attempts. While we already knew Rice was special, it’s easy to understand why OC Cam Cameron leaned on him so often down the stretch considering that Flacco completed just 40.7% of his throws in the red zone. His 11 red-zone passing touchdowns was 19th best in the league, behind the likes of Matt Moore, Rex Grossman and Matt Hasselbeck – none of which had a full season’s worth of starts. When Flacco was completing passes, he spread it around as four players saw at least 12.7% of the looks with Anquan Boldin and Ed Dickson leading the way with 12 apiece. Much like Julio Jones, one would expect Torrey Smith’s red-zone opportunities to double in 2012 – hopefully at the expense of Vonta Leach’s seven targets inside the 20, two more than Rice.

 Buffalo Bills
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 79 42 20 25.3 11 19.3 0 0
RB Fred Jackson 25 43.9 4 16 5 6.3 2 0 0
RB C.J. Spiller 11 19.3 2 18.2 9 11.4 6 2 33.3
RB Tashard Choice 8 13.9 1 12.5
RB Johnny White 1 1.8 0 0
WR Brad Smith 1 1.8 1 100 4 5.1 2 0 0
WR Steve Johnson 19 24.1 8 6 75
WR David Nelson 15 19 9 5 55.6
WR Donald Jones 6 7.6 1 1 100
WR Derek Hagan 2 2.5 2 1 50
WR Ruvell Martin 2 2.5 2 0 0
WR N. Roosevelt 1 1.3 1 0 0
TE Scott Chandler 12 15.2 8 5 62.5
TE Mike Caussin 1 1.3 1 0 0
Totals 79 42 20 25.3% 57 100 8 14.0% 76 96.3 42 20 47.6% 58.1% 60.6% 41.9% 39.4%

The comparison that immediately jumps out is the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick had as many red-zone rushing attempts as C.J. Spiller did, which speaks volumes about the likely lack of trust HC Chan Gailey has in Spiller to run in between the tackles. Veteran fantasy owners undoubtedly remember how much Gailey relies on his slot receiver, so the fact that David Nelson had nearly as many targets inside the 20 as Steve Johnson should not come as a shock. (Johnson’s 19 targets inside the 20 was the sixth-highest total among receivers.) It is noteworthy, however, that Donald Jones – who spent most of his time outside the numbers last season – has seen the majority of his reps in the slot this offseason. (This development is one to keep an eye on throughout the preseason, although it is unlikely his presence in the slot will have much effect on Nelson’s final numbers.) Scott Chandler certainly isn’t the flashiest option around, but his 12 targets left him in a tie for the 14th highest total at his position. Given the fact he “earned his stripes” last season as a red-zone weapon despite seeing only about 40% of the team’s offensive snaps and TE coach Pete Metzelaars’ belief that he can become an every-down player, Chandler could actually exceed last year’s numbers in 2012.

 Carolina Panthers
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Cam Newton 59 26 13 22 39 56.5 13 33.3
RB Jonathan Stewart 17 24.6 3 17.6 4 6.8 2 1 50
RB DeAngelo Williams 12 17.4 2 16.7 1 1.7 0 0
RB Mike Goodson 2 3.4 1 0 0
WR Legedu Naanee 13 22 6 1 16.7
WR Steve Smith 11 18.6 4 2 50
WR Brandon LaFell 7 11.9 4 2 50
TE Greg Olsen 11 18.6 4 3 75
TE Jeremy Shockey 7 11.9 4 4 100
TE Richie Brockel  1  1.4  1 100  1 1.7 1 0 0
Totals 59 26 13 22.0% 69 99.9 19 27.5% 57 96.6 26 13 50.0% 46.5% 58.0% 53.5% 42.0%

It’s no secret one of the biggest reasons Cam Newton blew away the fantasy world last season was due to his ability to finish drives himself. Only 10 running backs had more red-zone carries than Newton! Just as impressively, Newton managed to secure 56.5% of the Panthers’ red-zone runs, which would have ranked him 13th among all running backs, two-tenths of a percent behind Rashard Mendenhall. Since no post-merger quarterback has ever scored more than four times on the ground following a double-digit effort the season before, history is working Newton to score 10 more rushing scores in 2012. The most surprising part of the Panthers’ red-zone passing attack might have been that Legedu Naanee – a player that is considered a better blocker than receiver – led the team in targets. While the 6-2, 220-pound Naanee makes sense as a bigger alternative to Steve Smith, it’s hard to forget Carolina has a similarly-sized receiver in Brandon LaFell and two very capable tight ends in a very TE-friendly offense. Considering the team has all but guaranteed that LaFell will start this season, it seems odd at the very least that a player like Naanee would hold the red-zone target champion title. In 2012, expect Smith’s 13 targets to stay roughly the same while LaFell and TE Greg Olsen see substantially more.

 Chicago Bears
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Jay Cutler 33 16 8 24.2 2 3.8 1 50
QB Caleb Hanie 6 3 1 16.7 0 0 0
QB Josh McCown 5 2 1 20 2 3.8 0 0
RB Matt Forte 23 44.2 2 8.7 8 18.2 5 0 0
RB Marion Barber 17 32.7 6 35.3 0 0 0 0
RB Kahlil Bell 5 9.6 0 0 1 2.3 1 0 0
RB Armando Allen 3 5.8 0 0 0 0 0 0
WR D. Sanzenbacher 12 27.3 5 3 60
WR Roy Williams 5 11.4 0 0
WR Devin Hester 4 9.1 1 0 0
WR Earl Bennett 1 2.3 1 1 100
WR Johnny Knox 1 2.3 0 0
TE Kellen Davis 6 13.6 5 4 80
TE Matt Spaeth 3 6.8 2 2 100
Totals 44 21 10 22.7% 52 99.9 9 17.3% 41 93.3 20 10 50.0% 45.8% 53.4% 54.2% 46.6%

Although it is easy to pin the Bears’ recent red-zone woes on Matt Forte (3-for-33 inside the 5 over the last three years), his “struggles” have often been due to the complete lack of urgency (and push) Chicago’s offensive line displayed for much of the time former OC Mike Martz was running the show. Be that as it may, the Bears’ offensive braintrust cannot be happy that Forte has scored just seven times in 60 red-zone attempts over the last two years while his complements over that time (Chester Taylor and Marion Barber) have combined for nine rushing scores on 40 attempts. As for the passing game, it is quite telling that undrafted free agent Dane Sanzenbacher – who will be fighting for a roster spot this summer after the additions of Brandon Marshall and rookie Alshon Jeffery – was easily the most targeted Bear in the red zone in 2011 on a team that was supposed to feature Roy Williams last season and also had one of Jay Cutler’s best friends in Earl Bennett. While there will be some obvious changes under the direction of new OC Mike Tice and passing game coordinator Jeremy Bates, expect Cutler to find Kellen Davis more often after the big tight end rewarded his quarterback last season.

 Cincinnati Bengals
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Andy Dalton 65 34 15 23.1 6 8.6 1 16.7
RB Cedric Benson 54 77.1 5 9.3 1 1.5 1 0 0
RB Bernard Scott 8 11.4 2 25 1 1.5 1 0 0
RB Brian Leonard 2 2.9 0 0 4 6.2 3 0 0
WR A.J. Green 17 26.2 5 3 60
WR Jerome Simpson 13 20 7 4 57.1
WR Andre Caldwell 8 12.3 7 2 28.6
WR Andrew Hawkins 1 1.5 0 0
TE J. Gresham 14 21.5 8 5 62.5
TE Donald Lee 2 3.1 1 0 0
TE Colin Cochart 1 1.5 1 1 100
Totals 65 34 15 23.1% 70 100 8 11.4% 62 95.3 34 15 44.1% 48.2% 55.2% 51.9% 44.8%

Take a look at these numbers: 60.9, 82.4 and 77.1. These numbers are the percentage of the team’s red-zone carries that Cedric Benson had in his three full seasons with the Bengals. To put that into some perspective, there have only been 30 instances over the last three years combined in which one team’s running back secured at least 60% of the red-zone rushing workload (including all three instances from Benson). Given the fact BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been one of the league’s best backs in close over the last three seasons (18-of-35 from inside the 5) while Benson wasn’t exactly prolific in the same situation (12-of-39), the “Law Firm” figures to command about four of every five red-zone carries this season. Another set of numbers to consider: 39, 56 and 54 – the number of red-zone carries Benson had over the last three years; over the same time, Green-Ellis managed 1, 50 and 39, respectively. Despite the inefficiency of Benson, the Bengals still ran more inside the 20 than they threw it – a trend that should change but probably will not under second-year OC Jay Gruden. One thing that should stay the same, however, is that A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham finished 1-2 in red-zone targets. It’s a good bet about a third of the 21 total targets left behind by Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell will go to Green while the other 14 will probably be split between the winner of the WR2 job (most likely rookie Mohamed Sanu) and perhaps his closest competition (Brandon Tate, Marvin Jones or Armon Binns?).

 Cleveland Browns
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Colt McCoy 40 21 9 22.5 8 15.4 0 0
QB Seneca Wallace 7 4 1 14.3 0 0 0
RB Peyton Hillis 19 36.5 2 10.5 2 4.3 2 0 0
RB Chris Ogbonnaya 15 28.8 1 6.7 1 2.1 1 0 0
RB Montario Hardesty 9 17.3 0 0 2 4.3 2 0 0
RB Owen Marecic 1 1.9 0 0 1 2.1 1 0 0
WR Greg Little 0 0 0 8 17 5 1 20
WR M. Massaquoi 0 0 0 6 12.8 2 2 100
WR Josh Cribbs 0 0 0 4 8.5 2 2 100
WR Brian Robiskie 0 0 0 1 2.1 0 0 0
WR Jordan Norwood 0 0 0 1 2.1 1 0 0
TE Evan Moore 8 17 5 3 60
TE Benjamin Watson 7 14.9 2 1 50
TE Alex Smith 2 4.3 1 1 100
TE Jordan Cameron 2 4.3 0 0 0
Totals 47 25 10 21.3% 52 99.9 3 5.8% 45 95.8 24 10 41.7% 47.5% 59.5% 52.5% 40.5%

Since 1940, there have 42 instances in which a team scored four or fewer rushing touchdowns in a season; only four have managed a winning record and the Browns were not one of those teams in 2011. Worse yet, two of those rushing scores came in the same game. Needless to say, three red-zone scoring runs in 52 tries will not get the job done for many offenses and was one of many reasons why Cleveland felt it needed to have Trent Richardson. Another telling stat was eight – as in the number of red-zone targets Greg Little and Evan Moore had in 2011, which led the team. (The Raiders were the only other team not to have at least one play record at least 10 red-zone targets.) With the strides Little has made this offseason, it would not be surprising if he doubled that mark in 2012, especially if rookie Brandon Weeden’s arm and accuracy prove to be every bit as good as Cleveland believes it is. Moore may very well remain second in line behind Little inside the 20, but will probably battle Brandon Jackson – if not Richardson – for that title.

 Dallas Cowboys
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Tony Romo 66 39 18 27.3 7 11.7 1 14.3
QB Stephen McGee 5 2 1 20 1 1.7 0 0
QB Jon Kitna 3 2 1 33.3 0 0 0
RB Felix Jones 17 28.3 1 5.9 3 4.1 3 0 0
RB DeMarco Murray 17 28.3 1 5.9 2 2.7 1 0 0
RB Sammy Morris 6 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Phillip Tanner 5 8.3 1 20 0 0 0 0
RB Tashard Choice 5 8.3 0 0          
RB Tony Fiammetta 2 3.3 0 0 0 0 0 0
WR Dez Bryant 13 17.6 6 4 66.7
WR Miles Austin 13 17.6 6 4 66.7
WR Laurent Robinson 10 13.5 8 8 100
WR Kevin Ogletree 5 6.8 3 0 0
TE Jason Witten 15 20.3 7 3 42.9
TE John Phillips 5 6.8 4 1 25
TE Martellus Bennett 4 5.4 2 0 0
Totals 74 43 20 27.0% 60 99.9 4 6.7% 70 94.8 40 20 50.0% 55.2% 59.9% 44.8% 40.1%

Even for a big-play team like the Cowboys, 60.6% of their passing touchdowns (20-of-33) took place inside the 20. It isn’t a shocker that Jason Witten was once again Tony Romo’s favorite target in such situations, but don’t expect a repeat of that occurrence this season with Miles Austin healthy and Dez Bryant finally appearing as if he is ready to be great. Don’t be surprised if Austin is one of the league leaders in red-zone targets (and receiving TDs) in what should the season Dallas fans have expected from him since the Cowboys drafted him. And don’t be fooled by DeMarco Murray’s relatively small red-zone numbers because he was only the featured back for seven games. His red-zone carries should dwarf Felix Jones’ in 2012 assuming Murray can avoid injury, which is no small feat for him (or Jones, for that matter). Perhaps the most interesting dilemma facing the Cowboys, however, is how to keep all the talent happy if everyone can stay healthy. By my unofficial count, Dallas had the tenth-highest red zone pass-run ratio in the league (1.23 passes for every run) and that was with a constantly-changing lineup. While Murray will certainly not be forgotten in close, the Cowboys could move into the top five in that “category” in 2012 if all of their key receivers stay out of the trainer’s room. With everybody healthy, this could really be a historic season for the Dallas passing game.

 Denver Broncos
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Tim Tebow 20 10 6 30 13 32.5 5 38.5
QB Kyle Orton 25 14 5 15.4 0 0 0 0
RB Willis McGahee 19 47.5 1 5.3 3 6.7 2 1 50
RB Lance Ball 6 15 0 0 4 8.9 2 1 50
RB Jeremiah Johnson 1 2.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Spencer Larsen 4 8.9 4 0 0
WR Eric Decker 1 2.5 0 0 10 22.2 4 3 75
WR D. Thomas 6 13.3 5 2 40
WR Eddie Royal 4 8.9 0 0 0
WR Brandon Lloyd 3 6.7 1 0 0
WR Matt Willis 3 6.7 1 1 100
TE Daniel Fells 7 15.6 5 3 60
TE Julius Thomas 1 2.2 0 0
Totals 45 24 11 24.4% 40 100 6 15.0% 45 100 24 11 47.8% 52.9% 53.7% 47.1% 46.3%

Unfortunately, there is very little insight the Broncos’ red-zone numbers from 2011 can provide – outside of the short period of time Kyle Orton was the starter – because Tim Tebow and Peyton Manning are essentially polar opposites. Although Denver will probably try to maintain the same kind of balance inside the 20 (45 passes to 40 rushes), don’t be surprised if OC Mike McCoy and HC John Fox fall in love a bit with the pass a bit more. And it would hardly be shocking if the Broncos made a huge leap from the 85 red-zone snaps they managed last season to the 140-150 range where some of the more elite offenses resided in 2012. Although I still believe Eric Decker will be the most consistent fantasy receiver in PPR leagues, we certainly need to recognize the fact that Manning has never had the opportunity to play with a receiver as big and gifted as Demaryius Thomas, so don’t be surprised to see him almost triple his red-zone targets from the six he received over 11 games last season. Of course, the transition from Tebow to Manning also means that Willis McGahee should steal most of Tebow’s 13 red-zone runs and about 60-70% of all the extra opportunities this offense will have thanks to the quarterback upgrade.

 Detroit Lions
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Matthew Stafford 100 50 29 29 3 6 0 0
RB Jahvid Best 14 28 1 7.1 4 4 2 1 50
RB Maurice Morris 11 22 1 9.1 3 3 3 1 33.3
RB Kevin Smith 10 20 4 40 3 3 3 2 66.7
RB Keiland Williams 10 20 2 20 1 1 1 0 0
RB Jerome Harrison 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
WR Nate Burleson 1 2 0 17 17 9 2 22.2
WR Calvin Johnson 24 24 13 9 69.2
WR Titus Young 8 8 5 4 80
WR Rashied Davis 1 1 0 0
TE B. Pettigrew 22 22 8 5 62.5
TE Tony Scheffler 13 13 6 5 83.3
TE Will Heller 2 2 0 0
Totals 100 50 29 29.0% 50 100 8 16.0% 98 98 50 29 58.0% 66.7% 66.4% 33.3% 33.7%

Matthew Stafford attempted more passes in the red zone than any other quarterback in 2011, a fact that should shock no NFL fan. However, it is a bit odd they were not the most pass-happy team inside the 20 (keep reading, the answer will surprise you). With 100 pass attempts in the red zone, it is only natural that four players came away with at least 13 targets, including Calvin Johnson with 24 – the second-highest mark for a receiver last year. The more eye-popping numbers were the other three players: Brandon Pettigrew with 22 (fourth-best at tight end), Nate Burleson with 17 (tied with A.J. Green, Dwayne Bowe and Larry Fitzgerald for ninth-best at receiver) and Tony Scheffler with 13 (tied for 12th best at tight end with Marcedes Lewis). Looking forward, perhaps the most interesting piece to consider is how the return of Mikel Leshoure will affect the Lions’ 2:1 pass-run ratio in the red zone. Will he simply inherit the majority of the 31 carries Maurice Morris, Kevin Smith and Keiland Williams combined for or will he chip away at Stafford’s 100 league-leading red zone attempts?

 Green Bay Packers
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Aaron Rodgers 84 53 29 34.5 12 20 3 25
QB Matt Flynn 6 4 2 33.3 1 1.7 1 100
RB James Starks 18 30 1 5.6 4 4.4 2 0 0
RB Ryan Grant 16 26.7 1 6.3 3 3.3 2 0 0
RB John Kuhn 10 16.7 4 40 8 8.9 6 2 33.3
RB Brandon Saine 2 3.3 0 0 3 3.3 3 0 0
WR Jordy Nelson 15 16.7 10 7 70
WR Greg Jennings 14 15.6 7 4 57.1
WR Donald Driver 11 12.2 7 5 71.4
WR James Jones 4 4.4 4 3 75
WR Randall Cobb 3 3.3 2 0 0
TE Jermichael Finley 16 17.8 10 8 80
TE Tom Crabtree 3 3.3 2 1 50
TE Andrew Quarless 2 2.2 1 0 0
TE Ryan Taylor 1 1.1 1 1 100
DT B.J. Raji 1 1.7 1 100
Totals 90 57 31 34.4% 60 100.1 11 18.3% 87 96.5 57 31 54.4% 60.4% 60.0% 39.6% 40.0%

How amazing was Aaron Rodgers last year? Among his many other incredible numbers (such as the 29:1 TD-INT ratio), A-Rod was one of just two quarterbacks (Drew Brees) to complete over 63% of his passes inside the 20, a number that probably would have been closer to 70% were it not for the struggles of Jermichael Finley. Speaking of the tight end, in what was a unfocused effort by his own admission, Finley still led the team in red-zone targets and scored a team-leading eight times – a number that obviously bodes well for his prospects in 2012. Donald Driver’s 11 targets also stand out as a high number given his contribution to the team as a whole. Don’t be stunned if Randall Cobb closes the gap on him and becomes the fourth red-zone option this season. Last but not least, what does Ryan Grant’s departure mean for James Starks? Does Starks push 30 red-zone carries only to get vultured by Rodgers and John Kuhn more often than he was last season?

 Houston Texans
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Matt Schaub 45 21 7 15.6 4 3.8 2 50
QB T.J. Yates 16 5 3 18.8 2 1.9 0 0
QB Jake Delhomme 7 4 1 14.3 0 0 0
QB Matt Leinart 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
RB Arian Foster 54 51.9 9 16.7 3 4.3 1 0 0
RB Ben Tate 28 26.9 3 10.7 3 4.3 2 0 0
RB Derrick Ward 12 11.5 2 16.7 0 0 0 0 0
RB Lawrence Vickers 2 2.9 0 0 0
WR Kevin Walter 10 14.5 4 2 50
WR Andre Johnson 8 11.6 4 1 25
WR Jacoby Jones 8 11.6 3 0 0
WR Bryant Johnson 1 1 0 0 3 4.3 1 1 100
WR Derrick Mason 2 2.9 0 0 0
TE Owen Daniels 12 17.4 7 3 42.9
TE James Casey 3 4.3 3 0 0
TE Joel Dreessen 7 10.1 6 4 66.7
Totals 69 31 11 15.9% 101 97 16 15.8% 61 88.2 31 11 35.5% 40.6% 47.8% 59.4% 52.2%

What Detroit was to the passing game in the red zone last year was what the Texans were to the running game. With 101 attempts, Houston was significantly ahead of the rest of the league as only one other team (New England) had as many as 90. Understandably, some of this was born out of necessity since Andre Johnson missed nine games and parts of a few others while Matt Schaub was lost for the season in mid-November. But consider for a second that Ben Tate finished 17th in the league with 28 red-zone carries despite no more than 32 actual carries in any of the final three months of the season. While we should expect slightly more balance this season, I would expect Houston to continue being one of the more run-heavy offenses inside the 20 again. It’s also a safe bet that Kevin Walter will not lead his position group with red-zone targets again. Lestar Jean should command the same looks Jacoby Jones did while Johnson stands a pretty good chance at playing at least 12 games in 2012 given his recent bad luck with injuries. Owen Daniels should stay in the 10-14 target neighborhood, but look for Garrett Graham and maybe even James Casey to make up for the loss of Joel Dreessen.

 Indianapolis Colts
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Dan Orlovsky 24 10 5 20.8 0 0 0
QB Curtis Painter 21 9 2 9.5 3 6.4 0 0
QB Kerry Collins 16 6 2 12.5 0 0 0
RB Donald Brown 18 38.3 4 22.2 2 3.3 2 0 0
RB Joseph Addai 13 27.7 1 7.7 0 0 0 0
RB Delone Carter 12 25.5 2 16.7 0 0 0 0
WR Pierre Garcon 1 2.1 0 0 16 26.2 7 2 28.6
WR Reggie Wayne 14 23 5 3 60
WR Austin Collie 12 19.7 5 1 20
TE Dallas Clark 10 16.4 4 2 50
TE Jacob Tamme 4 6.6 1 1 100
TE Brody Eldridge 1 1.6 1 0 0
Totals 61 25 9 14.8% 47 100 7 14.9% 59 96.8 25 9 36.0% 56.5% 59.8% 43.5% 40.2%

With the complete overhaul of coaching and personnel in Indy this offseason, there is not really much to analyze here. Only four of the 12 players mentioned above remain on the roster and it is questionable how much any of them – even Reggie Wayne – will contribute to the new regime. Despite the praise Donald Brown has received this offseason about being a “three-down back”, it is telling the Colts saw fit to draft a big back in Vick Ballard and sign a passing-down specialist like Mewelde Moore. Even though Indianapolis selected two of this draft’s tight ends, Wayne should be considered the odds-on favorite to lead the team in red-zone targets, although it could be a close call between him and rookie TEs Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener.

 Jacksonville Jaguars
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Blaine Gabbert 49 22 9 18.4 4 7.3 0 0
QB Luke McCown 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB M. Jones-Drew 40 72.7 7 17.5 9 18 8 3 37.5
RB Deji Karim 7 12.7 0 0 1 2 1 0 0
RB DuJuan Harris 2 3.6 0 0 1 2 0 0
RB Greg Jones 1 1.8 1 100 1 2 0 0
RB Montell Owens 1 1.8 0 0 0 0 0 0
WR Jason Hill 7 14 2 2 100
WR Mike Thomas 6 12 3 0 0
WR Jarett Dillard 4 8 1 1 100
WR Kassim Osgood 2 4 1 0 0
WR Chastin West 2 4 2 1 50
WR Cecil Shorts 1 2 1 1 100
TE Marcedes Lewis 13 26 2 0 0
TE Colin Cloherty 2 4 0 0
TE Zach Miller 1 2 1 1 100
Totals 50 22 9 18.0% 55 99.9 8 14.6% 50 100 22 9 40.9% 47.6% 51.2% 52.4% 48.8%

For what was often a dreadful offense to watch, it is rather shocking the Jags were able to muster 105 red-zone plays in 2011. Handing the ball off to Maurice Jones-Drew inside the 20 (40 carries, 17.5% success rate) was just about as effective as letting Blaine Gabbert (49 pass attempts, 18.4% success rate) throw it, which is a rather uncommon occurrence if you compare Jacksonville to most of the rest of the league. Like the Colts, there is very little to take away from the Jags’ red-zone numbers last season simply because of the play-calling change (from Dirk Koetter to new HC Mike Mularkey) and the notion that Gabbert cannot be as awful as he was last season. And let’s be honest: most veteran quarterbacks would have struggled mightily with Jason Hill (journeyman deep threat) and Mike Thomas (ideally suited to be a slot receiver) drawing the majority of starts at receiver and a distracted Marcedes Lewis serving as the main receiving threat not named Jones-Drew. Expect a healthy Laurent Robinson to edge out rookie Justin Blackmon for the title of the team’s most valuable fantasy receiver, although both players have low-end WR3 potential if Mularkey and OC Bob Bratkowski can accelerate Gabbert’s learning curve and bring out the talent that had some draft analysts calling him the most pro-ready QB in the 2011 draft.

 Kansas City Chiefs
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Matt Cassel 26 14 7 26.9 3 5.9 0 0
QB Tyler Palko 9 3 0 0 1 2 0 0
QB Kyle Orton 11 4 1 36.4
RB Thomas Jones 19 37.3 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Jackie Battle 16 31.4 2 12.5 2 4.3 1 0 0
RB Dexter McCluster 7 13.7 0 0 5 10.9 5 0 0
RB Le’Ron McClain 3 5.9 1 33.3 4 8.7 1 1 100
RB Jamaal Charles 1 2 0 0 1 2.2 1 1 100
WR Dwayne Bowe 17 37 7 3 42.9
WR Steve Breaston 8 17.4 4 2 50
WR Jonathan Baldwin 4 8.7 0 0
WR Jerheme Urban 1 2.2 0 0
TE Leonard Pope 2 4.3 1 1 100
TE Jake O’Connell 1 2.2 0 0
TE Anthony Becht 0 0 0 0
DB Javier Arenas 1 2 1 100
Totals 46 21 8 17.4% 51 100.2 4 7.8% 45 97.9 20 8 40.0% 47.9% 52.3% 52.1% 47.7%

Once again, a coordinator and coaching change makes it very difficult to draw any solid conclusions. Gone is former HC Todd Haley and in his place is ex-Dolphins OC Brian Daboll, who showed us last season that he was more than willing to run an aggressive offense with much less talent in Miami. But the philosophical and schematic changes aren’t the big story in Kansas City, the influx of incoming and returning talent is. Peyton Hillis could (and probably should) command the combined red-zone work of Thomas Jones and Jackie Battle while the team attempts to take it easy on Jamaal Charles as he will likely focus on embarrassing tacklers in between the 20s if his fully recovered from his ACL tear. Although the Chiefs will probably use the same recipe that worked well for them in 2010 – running the ball to set up the pass in order to “hide” some of the more obvious weaknesses in Matt Cassel’s game – it is highly doubtful Daboll will such a talented receiving corps that is several times better than the one Haley had two seasons ago. I suspect Kansas City will run considerably more red-zone plays this season, with Tony Moeaki and Jonathan Baldwin joining Dwayne Bowe as Cassel’s favorite targets.

 Miami Dolphins
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Matt Moore 44 23 12 27.3 6 9.2 2 33.3
QB Chad Henne 21 8 4 19 1 1.5 1 100
QB J.P. Losman 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Daniel Thomas 24 36.9 0 0 2 3 2 1 50
RB Reggie Bush 22 33.8 4 18.2 8 12.1 7 1 14.3
RB Lex Hilliard 5 7.7 1 20 2 3 1 0 0
RB Steve Slaton 5 7.7 1 20 1 1.5 0 0
WR Davone Bess 1 1.5 0 0 13 19.7 7 3 42.9
WR Brian Hartline 1 1.5 0 0 8 12.1 1 1 100
WR Brandon Marshall 21 31.8 6 4 66.7
WR Roberto Wallace 0 0 0 0
WR Marlon Moore 0 0 0 0
WR Clyde Gates 0 0 0 0
TE Anthony Fasano 6 9.1 3 3 100
TE Charles Clay 4 6.1 3 3 100
TE Jeron Mastrud 1 1.5 1 0 0
Totals 66 31 16 24.2% 65 99.8 9 13.9% 66 99.9 31 16 51.6% 50.4% 52.6% 49.6% 47.4%

Without trying to sound like a broken record, a coaching and philosophical change on offense will likely have a dramatic effect on how the touches and targets are distributed this season. The biggest difference maker, however, will probably be how the team decides to attack the red zone without Brandon Marshall, who was tied for the third-highest target total among receivers with 21. Based on what I know about new HC Joe Philbin and new OC Mike Sherman, I’d be stunned if Anthony Fasano and (especially) Charles Clay aren’t significantly more involved all over the field this season, especially inside the 20. If undrafted free agent WR Jeff Fuller and/or sixth-round rookie B.J. Cunningham can make some noise in camp, either one could very well be the favorite red-zone option of whichever quarterback wins the job during the preseason. The other noteworthy change will be whether or not the extra muscle Daniel Thomas added this offseason (he is reportedly 235 pounds) will help him finish runs better than he did in 2011. Reggie Bush is one of the few true mismatches this roster has and will be best utilized as an “offensive weapon” as opposed to the quasi-feature back role he was forced into last season. A healthy and powerful Thomas will allow that to happen, so look for Thomas to steal at least half of Bush’s 2011 red-zone rush attempts.

 Minnesota Vikings
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Christian Ponder 27 21 8 29.6 1 1.5 0 0
QB Donovan McNabb 22 12 3 13.6 6 8.8 1 16.7
QB Joe Webb 10 5 3 30 8 11.8 1 12.5
RB Adrian Peterson 34 50 11 32.4 4 6.8 2 1 50
RB Toby Gerhart 9 13.2 1 11.1 7 11.9 7 3 42.9
WR Percy Harvin 8 11.8 2 25 18 30.5 11 2 18.2
WR Lorenzo Booker 2 2.9 0 0 2 3.4 1 0 0
WR D. Aromashodu 8 13.6 3 0 0
WR Michael Jenkins 6 10.2 5 2 40
WR Greg Camarillo 1 1.7 0 0
TE V. Shiancoe 7 11.9 4 3 75
TE Kyle Rudolph 5 8.5 5 3 60
Totals 59 38 14 23.7% 68 100 16 23.5% 58 98.5 38 14 36.8% 46.5% 55.5% 53.5% 44.5%

Red-zone fun fact of the day: no quarterback was more accurate in the red zone than…Christian Ponder? The rookie QB connected on 77.8% of his throws inside the 20 last season, which led all quarterbacks who attempted more than one red-zone throw. But until Ponder ascends into elite status, it is highly unlikely the team will trust its fortunes with him in close over a healthy Adrian Peterson, which is a dilemma this season based on the fact AP cannot be expected to be the dominant runner we’ve grown accustomed to. Still, the Vikings will almost certainly run more than they pass in the red zone again in 2012, in part because they lack proven outside receivers who can create mismatches or win jump balls, although Jerome Simpson has a great chance to change that. They will also place a heavy focus on two-TE sets, which fits OC Bill Musgrave’s conservative offensive approach and is generally considered a run-based personnel grouping. Minnesota appears to be dead-set on managing Percy Harvin’s touches (apparently in an effort to protect him from his fearless style of play), so Kyle Rudolph and John Carlson could conceivably finish right behind Harvin in terms of Ponder’s pecking order inside the 20.

 New England Patriots
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Tom Brady 99 57 29 29.3 13 13.7 3 23.1
RB B. Green-Ellis 39 41.1 11 28.2 2 2 2 0 0
RB Danny Woodhead 18 18.9 1 5.6 6 6.1 1 0 0
RB Stevan Ridley 16 16.8 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Kevin Faulk 4 4.2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0
RB Shane Vereen 3 3.2 1 33.3 0 0 0 0
WR Wes Welker 1 1.1 0 0 20 20.2 17 6 35.3
WR Deion Branch 15 15.2 6 5 83.3
WR Chad Ochocinco 3 3 0 0
WR Julian Edelman 0 0 0 0
WR T. Underwood 1 1 0 0
TE Rob Gronkowski 26 26.3 18 12 66.7
TE Aaron Hernandez 24 24.2 12 6 50
Totals 99 57 29 29.3% 94 99 16 17.0% 98 99 57 29 50.9% 51.3% 59.5% 48.7% 40.5%

How amazing was the Patriots’ offense last year? Their 193 snaps inside the red zone dwarfed the rest of the league. They ran the ball 94 times inside the 20, which was more snaps than two teams – Denver (85) and St. Louis (72) – were able to muster when their run and pass attempts were added together). They also managed to accumulate the second-most red-zone pass AND second-most rush attempts, essentially merging Detroit’s passing game and Houston’s rushing attack into one year-end stat sheet. Although New England is yet another team undergoing an offensive coordinator change, new OC Josh McDaniels is no stranger to Foxboro. While McDaniels will probably be a little more balanced as a whole with his play-calling than Bill O’Brien was, it is worth mentioning his first five offenses (every offense prior to his one-year stint with the Rams in 2011) finished in the top 12 in pass attempts. As a result, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if New England actually passed more in the red zone next season, especially after the loss of goal-line extraordinaire BenJarvus Green-Ellis and the addition of Brandon Lloyd – a player that will definitely be a red-zone asset as well as a deep-ball threat. As for the running game, expect a similar distribution among 3-4 different runners, with Stevan Ridley essentially absorbing Green-Ellis’ 39 red-zone runs and Joseph Addai picking up Ridley’s 16.

 New Orleans Saints
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Drew Brees 95 61 30 31.6 4 5.7 1 25
QB Chase Daniel 1 1 0 0 3 4.3 0 0
RB Mark Ingram 23 32.9 4 17.4 1 1 1 0 0
RB Pierre Thomas 19 27.1 5 26.3 7 7.3 5 1 20
RB Darren Sproles 13 18.6 1 7.7 21 21.9 16 6 37.5
RB Chris Ivory 4 5.7 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Jed Collins 3 4.3 2 66.7 2 2.1 2 2 100
WR D. Henderson 1 1.4 0 0 6 6.3 2 0 0
WR Lance Moore 13 13.5 8 6 75
WR Marques Colston 13 13.5 10 4 40
WR Robert Meachem 2 2.1 2 2 100
WR Courtney Roby 0 0 0 0
WR Adrian Arrington 0 0 0 0
TE Jimmy Graham 26 27.1 14 8 57.1
TE John Gilmore 2 2.1 1 1 100
TE Mike Higgins 1 1 1 0 0
Totals 96 62 30 31.3% 70 100 13 18.6% 94 97.9 62 30 48.4% 57.8% 61.4% 42.2% 38.6%

Make no mistake: the Saints will miss HC Sean Payton this season. But assuming they finally can reach a deal with Drew Brees over the next few weeks, they will be left in the capable hands of OC Pete Carmichael, who called a number of games for Payton following the broken leg he suffered on the sideline in Week 6 last season. That stretch of games included Carmichael’s first – when Brees ripped the Colts for 325 yards and five scores in about three quarters. Based on Brees’ production with Carmichael in charge, there isn’t much reason to worry about this passing offense, in the red zone or anywhere else. As hard as it might be to believe that New Orleans ran the ball 70 times inside the 20, I am quite certain the Saints passed more often (pass-run ratio) when Carmichael was calling the shots as opposed to Payton. The three-headed backfield committee isn’t going away and I wouldn’t be all the surprised if Darren Sproles doesn’t get even more red-zone usage this season since he is a better bet to stay healthy than Ingram or Thomas. On the other hand, I suspect Jimmy Graham will only get better this season. With Marques Colston always an injury question mark, Graham could legitimately push 30 red-zone targets – a number that hasn’t been touched by a receiver or tight end since Larry Fitzgerald in 2008.

 New York Giants
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Eli Manning 71 36 15 21.1 3 4.9 1 33.3
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 24 39.3 9 37.5 9 12.7 4 2 50
RB Brandon Jacobs 24 39.3 7 29.2 0 0 0 0
RB D.J. Ware 9 14.8 0 0 6 8.5 6 0 0
RB Henry Hynoski 1 1.4 0 0
WR Victor Cruz 1 1.6 0 0 11 15.5 5 1 20
WR Hakeem Nicks 13 18.3 7 5 71.4
WR M. Manningham 12 16.9 5 3 60
WR Ramses Barden 2 2.8 1 0 0
WR Jerrel Jernigan 1 1.4 0 0
WR Michael Clayton 1 1.4 0 0
TE Jake Ballard 12 16.9 8 4 50
TE Travis Beckum 2 2.8 0 0
TE Bear Pascoe 1 1.4 0 0
Totals 71 36 15 21.1% 61 99.9 17 27.9% 71 100 36 15 41.7% 53.8% 60.0% 46.2% 40.0%

When it came to the red zone last season, the Giants were all about balance. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs each had 24 rushes inside the 20 while four receivers had between 11-13 targets. While some of the names have changed (Martellus Bennett along with rookies Reuben Randle and David Wilson likely stepping in for Jake Ballard, Mario Manningham and Brandon Jacobs, respectively), it would be mildly surprising if the philosophy changes much since Randle and Bennett are both bigger and more athletic than their predecessors and Wilson is a bit more stout than Bradshaw is. However, the wildcard here is Andre Brown, who has bulked up to 240 pounds in an effort to give the Giants a newer and younger version of Jacobs. Despite their inability to establish the run in a number of games last year, New York managed to score a touchdown on 27.9% of its red-zone rush attempts – the best mark in the league, just ahead of Carolina. The Giants were also one of just eight teams that posted a better rush TD percentage rate than pass TD percentage (21.1), a statistic that sounds much more like a Tom Coughlin-coached team. Whether or not that is an occurrence that becomes a trend or not will depend heavily on the offensive line blocking as good outside the 20 as they it did inside the red zone and the ability for Brown/Wilson to match the kind of success Bradshaw and Jacobs had in scoring range last season.

 New York Jets
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Mark Sanchez 79 42 21 26.6 11 16.4 6 54.5
RB Shonn Greene 41 61.2 5 12.2 2 2.5 1 0 0
RB L. Tomlinson 8 11.9 1 12.5 10 12.7 8 2 25
RB Joe McKnight 4 6 0 0 1 1.3 1 0 0
RB John Conner 2 3 1 50 0 0 0 0
RB Bilal Powell 1 1.5 0 0 1 1.3 1 0 0
WR Plaxico Burress 21 26.6 10 7 70
WR Santonio Holmes 13 16.5 7 4 57.1
WR Jeremy Kerley 6 7.6 2 1 50
WR Patrick Turner 2 2.5 1 1 100
WR Derrick Mason 1 2.5 0
TE Dustin Keller 20 25.3 10 5 50
TE Matthew Mulligan 1 1.3 0 0
TE Josh Baker 1 1.3 1 1 100
Totals 79 42 21 26.6% 67 100 13 19.4% 79 101 42 21 50.0% 54.1% 57.0% 45.9% 43.0%

Which of these teams do not fit with the others: Saints, Lions, Patriots and Jets? In what can only be described as a case of mistaken identity, New York was just one of four teams to feature two 20+ red-zone target players. The team leader in that category – Plaxico Burress with 21 – will not return to the team and has yet to sign with another team, which may only begin to explain how chaotic things must have been for this team in 2011. Under new OC Tony Sparano, it will be astonishing if any player (besides maybe Dustin Keller) sees more than 15 red-zone targets. Another change we can expect: a near-complete reversal in the pass-run ratio in the red zone (and everywhere else, for that matter). The Jets attempted 547 passes last season while calling 443 runs, good for a 55-45 pass-run ratio. Interestingly, that ratio was essentially the same one the team employed inside the 20. This season, expect something closer to 60% run and 40% pass considering they will have a 230-pound Shonn Greene along with what the Jets hope will be a 250-pound Tim Tebow. Also, don’t be a bit surprised if New York simply turns to the “Wildcat” as its main goal-line personnel grouping with Tebow serving as pseudo-goal-line back since Greene hasn’t exactly excelled in the touchdown department (5.6% conversion rate in 2010, 12.2% in 2011). Worse yet, Greene is just 4-of-13 (31%) at scoring inside the 5 over the last three seasons combined.

 Oakland Raiders
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Carson Palmer 28 15 6 21.4 3 4.3 1 33.3
QB Jason Campbell 16 8 4 25 3 4.3 2 66.7
RB Michael Bush 40 58 7 17.5 4 9.1 3 1 33.3
RB Darren McFadden 16 23.2 3 18.8 1 2.3 1 1 100
RB Taiwan Jones 4 5.8 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Marcel Reece 2 2.9 0 0 5 11.4 4 1 25
RB Manase Tonga 1 2.3 1 0 0
WR Louis Murphy 1 1.4 1 100 2 4.5 1 0 0
WR D. Heyward-Bey 8 18.2 2 2 100
WR Chaz Schilens 3 6.8 3 2 66.7
WR Jacoby Ford 3 6.8 1 1 100
WR Denarius Moore 2 4.5 1 1 100
WR David Ausberry 1 2.3 1 0 0
WR Houshmandzadeh 0 0 0 0
TE Kevin Boss 8 18.2 3 1 33.3
TE Brandon Myers 5 11.4 2 0 0
Totals 44 23 10 22.7% 69 99.9 14 20.3% 43 97.8 23 10 43.5% 38.9% 54.1% 61.1% 45.9%

Former HC Hue Jackson often referred to “building a bully” in Oakland and his use of the running game inside the red zone drove that point home as the Raiders were the league’s most run-heavy team inside the 20 (percentage-wise). Not surprisingly, two Oakland runners – Darren McFadden and Michael Bush – had at least twice the number of red-zone rushes as any receiver had red-zone targets. Although new OC Greg Knapp is known as a run-oriented play-caller, look for the Raiders’ lopsided run-pass ratio to even out a bit in 2012, particularly since he will have the advantage of a full offseason with Carson Palmer. Given his size, Darrius Heyward-Bey seems to be the most obvious choice for a sharp increase in red-zone targets, but don’t be surprised if Denarius Moore matches or exceeds DHB’s final tally. As for the running game, many seem to be predicting that McFadden will simply run away with all the scoring chances in the backfield – at least until he suffers another multi-week injury. With an offensive weapon like Marcel Reese on hand, however, I’m not so sure he doesn’t become the new Bush. As a former college receiver, he is a dual threat and as a 240-pound fullback, he is capable of bringing the same kind of thump to the short-yardage package that Bush did.

 Philadelphia Eagles
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Michael Vick 61 32 13 21.3 11 12.9 1 9.1
QB Vince Young 11 5 4 36.4 5 5.9 0 0
RB LeSean McCoy 50 58.8 14 28 12 16.7 8 3 37.5
RB Ronnie Brown 9 10.6 1 11.1 0 0 0 0
RB Dion Lewis 7 8.2 1 14.3 0 0 0 0
RB Owen Schmitt 2 2.4 0 0 1 1.4 0 0
WR Chad Hall 1 1.2 0 0 1 1.4 1 1 100
WR Jeremy Maclin 12 16.7 8 4 50
WR DeSean Jackson 9 12.5 2 1 50
WR Jason Avant 8 11.1 5 1 20
WR Riley Cooper 4 5.6 1 1 100
WR Steve Smith 3 4.2 1 1 100
TE Brent Celek 17 23.6 10 4 40
TE Clay Harbor 1 1.4 1 1 100
Totals 72 37 17 23.6% 85 100 17 20.0% 68 94.6 37 17 46.0% 45.9% 56.6% 54.1% 43.4%

One measure of just how good LeSean McCoy was last year was his 28% success rate at turning a rushing attempt inside the red zone into a touchdown. None of the four running backs (Michael Turner, Cedric Benson, Arian Foster or Frank Gore) with more than McCoy’s 50 red-zone carries converted more than 16.7% of their chances while no regular back in his “conversion neighborhood” had more than 40 attempts. While McCoy’s 28% conversion rate pales in comparison the 45% Michael Vick posted in 2010, Philadelphia will gladly accept the difference if it helps keep Vick healthy for a full season. Given HC Andy Reid’s propensity to pass, don’t look for a repeat of the Eagles’ 46-54 pass-run ratio in the red zone again this year; in fact, expect just the opposite. Philly wants to lessen the pounding McCoy takes as a runner and can use him just as easily as a receiver inside the 20. However, the odds-on favorite to command the most red-zone attention in the passing game this year should be Jeremy Maclin. During his breakout 2010 campaign, Maclin was one of six receivers to lead the league with seven red-zone scores. He was rarely ever healthy last season, but has been a standout in offseason workouts so far this spring and summer. While Brent Celek could be in for a repeat of his 17 red-zone targets, I doubt he will be able to do it again with more Maclin healthy again.

 Pittsburgh Steelers
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB B. Roethlisberger 56 27 15 26.8 4 6 0 0
QB Charlie Batch 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
RB R. Mendenhall 38 56.7 9 23.7 2 3.4 1 0 0
RB Isaac Redman 18 26.9 2 11.1 3 5.2 2 0 0
RB Mewelde Moore 2 3 0 0 1 1.7 1 1 100
RB Jonathan Dwyer 2 3 0 0 1 1.7 1 0 0
RB John Clay 1 1.5 1 100 0 0 0 0 0
RB David Johnson 1 1.7 1 1 100
WR Jerricho Cotchery 1 1.5 0 0 5 8.6 2 2 100
WR Mike Wallace 12 20.7 6 3 50
WR Antonio Brown 1 1.5 0 0 10 17.2 3 1 33.3
WR Hines Ward 7 12.1 3 2 66.7
WR E. Sanders 6 10.3 4 2 50
TE Heath Miller 7 12.1 3 2 66.7
TE Weslye Saunders 3 5.2 1 1 100
Totals 58 28 15 25.9% 67 100.1 12 17.9% 58 99.9 28 15 53.6% 46.4% 57.2% 53.6% 42.8%

Despite the fact the Steelers don’t exactly possess a size mismatch in the red zone with either one of their two main receivers (Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown), they still managed one of the best red-zone pass TD percentage rates in the league last season. Whether or not the switch to new OC Todd Haley will change that or the slight lean towards the running game inside the 20 remains to be seen, but it is a good bet that Isaac “Red Zone” Redman will probably swap red-zone numbers with Rashard Mendenhall in 2012 considering the latter may start the season on the PUP list. Given the praise Haley has already laid at the feet of Heath Miller, fantasy owners may want to view him as a darkhorse low-end TE1 possibility since the OC wants this offense to focus more on ball control and high-percentage passing than former OC Bruce Arians did. Although his size suggests he won’t be a factor in the red zone, another under-the-radar player to keep an eye on in the red zone is rookie Chris Rainey. While his size means he won’t be challenging Redman for short-yardage carries anytime soon, his speed and explosiveness on the perimeter could easily give Pittsburgh the same kind of options in the passing game that Darren Sproles provides to the Saints.

 San Diego Chargers
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Philip Rivers 64 30 14 21.9 6 8.8 1 16.7
RB Mike Tolbert 36 52.9 8 22.2 13 20.3 7 2 28.6
RB Ryan Mathews 19 27.9 5 26.3 2 3.1 2 0 0
RB Jacob Hester 4 5.9 0 0 3 4.7 2 1 50
RB Curtis Brinkley 3 4.4 1 33.3 1 1.6 1 0 0
WR Vincent Jackson 11 17.2 6 4 66.7
WR Malcom Floyd 5 7.8 1 1 100
WR Vincent Brown 3 4.7 1 0 0
WR Patrick Crayton 1 1.6 1 0 0
TE Antonio Gates 14 21.9 8 6 75
TE Randy McMichael 5 7.8 1 0 0
TE Kory Sperry 2 3.1 0 0
Totals 64 30 14 21.9% 68 99.9 15 22.1% 60 93.8 30 14 46.7% 48.5% 58.4% 51.5% 41.6%

Although some may disagree about his ability to coach the team as a whole, the beauty of a Norv Turner offense (from a fantasy owner’s perspective) is that he loves to run the ball in the red zone. Perhaps the most interesting consideration for the team this year is how it plans to redistribute the 24 targets that Mike Tolbert and Vincent Jackson took with them to the East Coast, not to mention Tolbert’s 36 red-zone carries. The most likely scenario would probably involve Ryan Mathews and Antonio Gates each receiving a noticeable bump in targets, but don’t be too surprised if free-agent acquisition Eddie Royal is one of the team leaders at the end of the year; Turner has suggested some of the 123 receptions that went to running backs last season will now go to Royal due to his ability to excel with “high-percentage routes”. Since it is unlikely Philip Rivers will endure another interception-plagued season again, the Chargers should see more red-zone chances in 2012 and, when they do, Mathews should match – if not exceed – Tolbert’s 43 touches inside the 20 from a season ago. I anticipate Ronnie Brown and Le’Ron McClain will see occasional work in relief of Mathews, but it is doubtful they’ll receive much work in the red zone. If everyone can stay healthy for San Diego this season, the scoring zone should be dominated by Gates and Mathews.

 Seattle Seahawks
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Tarvaris Jackson 47 24 9 19.1 6 10.5 1 16.7
QB C. Whitehurst 3 1 0 0 0 0 0
RB Marshawn Lynch 40 70.2 11 27.5 8 16 4 0 0
RB Leon Washington 5 8.8 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Michael Robinson 3 5.3 0 0 2 4 1 1 100
RB Justin Forsett 2 3.5 0 0 2 4 2 0 0
WR Golden Tate 1 1.8 0 0 12 24 5 3 60
WR Sidney Rice 6 12 3 1 33.3
WR Ben Obomanu 4 8 3 2 66.7
WR Mike Williams 3 6 3 1 33.3
WR Doug Baldwin 3 6 1 1 100
WR Deon Butler 2 4 1 0 0
TE Zach Miller 5 10 2 0 0
TE Cameron Morrah 2 4 0 0
TE Anthony McCoy 1 2 0 0
Totals 50 25 9 18.0% 57 100.1 12 21.1% 50 100 25 9 36.0% 46.7% 49.9% 53.3% 50.2%

Marshawn Lynch lived in “Beast Mode” for most of the second half of the season. As one would expect, this resurgence bore itself out in the play-calling as Lynch and Ray Rice were the two full-time backs who came the closest to matching their full-time quarterbacks in terms of red-zone touches vs. red-zone passing attempts. HC Pete Carroll plugged Golden Tate as a “special” talent last season and the receiver started scratching the surface of that talent towards the end of last year. Somewhat surprisingly, Tate managed to lead the team in red-zone targets, although it needs to be pointed out that Sidney Rice played in just nine games in 2011 and wasn’t even close to 100% for most of them. The trade for Kellen Winslow makes things interesting for Zach Miller, who was emerging as a low-end TE1 candidate again prior to the deal after spending much of his time blocking last season. One thing that should be clear, however, is that Seattle will likely remain a run-heavy team in the red zone this season. What this should mean is that Lynch – assuming he doesn’t revert back to his old ways – will be the unquestioned No. 1 option in the red zone again this season.

 San Francisco 49ers
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Alex Smith 60 24 8 13.3 6 7.3 2 33.3
RB Frank Gore 51 62.2 7 13.7 6 9.8 1 0 0
RB Kendall Hunter 17 20.7 2 11.8 1 1.6 1 0 0
RB Anthony Dixon 5 6.1 2 40 0 0 0 0
RB Bruce Miller 1 1.2 0 0 5 8.2 4 0 0
WR Kyle Williams 1 1.2 0 0 5 8.2 2 2 100
WR Michael Crabtree 15 24.6 7 2 28.6
WR Braylon Edwards 8 13.1 1 0 0
WR Ted Ginn 5 8.2 1 0 0
WR Brett Swain 2 3.3 1 0 0
TE Vernon Davis  1  1.2 0  8 13.1 6 4 66.7
TE Delanie Walker 6 9.8 1 1 100
K David Akers 1 1 1 100
Totals 61 25 9 14.8% 82 99.9 13 15.9% 61 99.9 25 9 36.0% 43.0% 55.7% 57.0% 44.3%

As any fantasy owner of David Akers could tell you last year, the Niners had no problem making it inside the 20, but they had all kinds of trouble finishing drives with touchdowns. Not surprisingly, San Francisco was the league’s worst team in terms of red-zone success (just 22 TDs on 142 plays inside the 20, which works out to a 12.7% conversion rate). While learning another new offensive scheme and the supporting cast had something to do with that poor number, Alex Smith simply has to complete more than 40% of his passes in the red zone. Considering Smith will remain in the same scheme and with all the players the team added in the offseason – especially Brandon Jacobs, Randy Moss and LaMichael James – don’t expect a repeat of that futility, from both Smith and the team as a whole. Shockingly, Michael Crabtree nearly doubled Vernon Davis in red-zone targets, an occurrence I could easily see reversing itself in 2012; Moss could even vault past Crabtree in that category. Because of the improvements in the passing game, the Niners will probably take a more balanced approach to their red-zone play-calling. I sincerely doubt Frank Gore will see 51 red-zone rushes again and expect Jacobs to take almost half of that workload. After the team drafted James, HC Jim Harbaugh remarked about how difficult he was to stop near the goal line, so his arrival is probably not good news for the 17 red-zone touches Kendall Hunter managed last season.

 St. Louis Rams
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Sam Bradford 32 8 4 12.5 1 3.4 0 0
QB A.J. Feeley 8 4 1 12.5 1 3.4 0 0
QB Kellen Clemens 3 1 0 0 1 3.4 1 100
RB Steven Jackson 17 58.6 4 23.5 4 9.3 2 1 50
RB Cadillac Williams 8 27.6 1 12.5 2 4.7 1 0 0
RB Brit Miller 1 3.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
WR Brandon Lloyd 10 23.3 5 3 30
WR D. Alexander 8 18.6 1 1 100
WR Greg Salas 4 9.3 2 0 0
WR Brandon Gibson 3 7 0 0 0
WR Mike Sims-Walker 1 2.3 0 0 0
WR Danny Amendola 1 2.3 0 0 0
TE Lance Kendricks 7 16.3 0 0 0
TE Billy Bajema 2 4.7 2 0 0
Totals 43 13 5 11.6% 29 99.8 6 20.7% 42 97.8 13 5 38.5% 59.7% 59.6% 40.3% 40.4%

Perhaps the lone bit of good news for the 2011 Rams: half of Sam Bradford’s red-zone completions ended up as touchdowns. The sad part: he completed only eight of his 32 red-zone throws (25%), which is abysmal. Let’s face it; this offense was completely inept last season as injuries wrecked what few matchup mismatches St. Louis presented the opposition. To their credit, the Rams attacked this offseason with gusto, giving Bradford a big, athletic receiver in rookie Brian Quick and a more-than-capable possession receiver in Steve Smith – who could be a real find if his knee holds up. St. Louis was easily the worst team in the NFL at getting to the red zone (just 72 plays over 16 games, an average of 4.5/game) and one of the worst at finding the end zone when it did wonder inside the 20 (scored on just 13.9% of its red-zone plays). Although it seems unlikely that a short slot receiver would make much difference in the red zone, the Rams had no backup plan to replace Danny Amendola’s league-leading 24 red-zone targets from two years ago and it showed. But the most important part of the Rams’ offense this season will be the ground game. With receivers like Amendola, Quick and maybe even Smith, Steven Jackson may actually get a chance to double his 17 red-zone rushing attempts.

 Tampa Bay Bucs
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Josh Freeman 65 39 13 20 10 33.3 4 40
RB LeGarrette Blount 10 33.3 2 20 2 3.1 1 0 0
RB Kregg Lumpkin 4 13.3 0 0 5 7.7 5 0 0
RB Earnest Graham 4 13.3 0 0 3 4.6 2 0 0
WR Arrelious Benn 2 6.7 0 0 8 12.3 5 1 20
WR Mike Williams 15 23.1 8 3 37.5
WR Preston Parker 9 13.8 7 3 42.9
WR Dezmon Briscoe 8 12.3 5 4 80
WR Michael Spurlock 1 1.5 1 0 0
TE Kellen Winslow 12 18.5 4 2 50
TE Luke Stocker 2 3.1 1 0 0
Totals 65 39 13 20.0% 30 99.9 6 20.0% 65 100 39 13 33.3% 68.4% 64.2% 31.6% 35.8%

Meet the league’s most unbalanced offensive team in the red-zone play-calling last season. It seems almost unfathomable that a team with a big (albeit poor short-yardage) back like LeGarrette Blount managed just 30 carries inside the 20 while Josh Freeman threw the ball around in the red zone about much as quarterbacks like Tony Romo and Philip Rivers (and more than Ben Roethlisberger) without the benefit of a Dez Bryant, Miles Austin or Vincent Jackson to throw to. However, give credit where it is due: Freeman was one of only four regular starting quarterbacks in the league to complete at least 60% of his passes inside the 20. This season, however, the Bucs are much more likely to sport a run-pass ratio of at least 55:45. The majority of the 12 red-zone targets Kellen Winslow leaves behind will probably fall into the lap of Vincent Jackson – as will a small chunk of Mike Williams’ 15 – but it will be a major upset if rookie Doug Martin or Blount doesn’t have at least 30-40 red-zone carries this season. The Bucs will pride themselves on being a ball-control offense, but they should be explosive enough to get their red-zone play count into the 120-130 range at the very least. With their offensive line and Martin likely serving as the main goal-line runner, Tampa Bay could easily double its red-zone rushing TD output.

 Tennessee Titans
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Matt Hasselbeck 52 32 13 25 0 0 0
QB Jake Locker 10 3 2 20 1 2.9 1 100
RB Chris Johnson 18 51.4 3 16.7 7 11.3 5 0 0
RB Javon Ringer 8 22.9 1 12.5 1 1.6 1 0 0
RB Jamie Harper 5 14.3 1 20 0 0 0 0
RB Ahmard Hall 2 5.7 0 0 2 3.2 1 0 0
WR Nate Washington 1 2.9 1 100 12 19.4 8 4 50
WR Lavelle Hawkins 10 16.1 6 1 16.7
WR Damian Williams 9 14.5 4 4 100
WR Kenny Britt 6 9.7 5 2 40
WR Donnie Avery 2 3.2 1 1 100
WR Marc Mariani 1 1.6 0 0
TE Jared Cook 6 9.7 1 1 100
TE Craig Stevens 2 3.2 2 1 50
TE Daniel Graham 1 1.6 1 1 100
Totals 62 35 15 24.2% 35 100.1 7 20.0% 59 95.1 35 15 42.9% 63.9% 61.8% 36.1% 38.2%

One telling stat regarding Chris Johnson: he managed to score three times on 18 red-zone carries (16.7%) last year, a significant drop in opportunities from his 8-of-49 showing (16.3%) from 2010. While his conversion rate wasn’t impressive in either season, there a lot of reason to believe the offensive line has been as much to blame as Johnson has. Plus, it’s not as if Javon Ringer, Jamie Harper or Ahmard Hall have done much better with their chances in those situations either. With the addition of free agent G Steve Hutchinson and the eventual promotion of Jake Locker to the starting lineup, look for those percentages to increase substantially since the blocking should improve and defenses will have to account for a mobile Locker as opposed to slow-moving quarterbacks like Matt Hasselbeck and Kerry Collins. Even with the level of talent at receiver Tennessee has now, it seems unlikely the team will be so pass-heavy in the red zone again in 2012. However, one thing that could change that would be a healthy Kenny Britt, who averaged two red-zone targets per game over his three contests in 2011 – a pace that he could actually come close to sustaining since he is such a huge mismatch. Given Jared Cook’s previous limitations as a blocker, he didn’t appear to be due for a huge spike in production, but his recent improvement as a blocker may just lead to the statistical breakout we’ve been waiting for from him. On the other hand, Lavelle Hawkins and Damian Williams may see a significant reduction of red-zone targets if Britt stays healthy and rookie Kendall Wright lives up to his advanced billing.

 Washington Redskins
Player Att Cmp PaTD PaTD % RuAtt RuAtt% RuTD RuTD % Tar Tar % Rec ReTD ReTD % RZ Pass % Pass % RZ Run % Run %
QB Rex Grossman 69 39 13 18.8 1 1.8 1 100
QB John Beck 8 6 2 25 3 5.3 2 66.7
RB Roy Helu 28 49.1 1 3.6 10 13 8 0 0
RB Tim Hightower 11 19.3 1 9.1 4 5.2 3 1 33.3
RB Ryan Torain 7 12.3 0 0 0 0 0 0
RB Evan Royster 4 7 0 0 3 3.9 1 0 0
RB Tashard Choice 3 5.2 0 6.7          
WR Jabar Gaffney 18 23.4 12 5 41.7
WR Santana Moss 13 16.9 5 2 40
WR D. Stallworth 7 9.1 3 2 66.7
WR David Anderson 4 5.2 2 1 50
WR A. Armstrong 4 5.2 2 1 50
WR L. Hankerson 2 2.6 1 0 0
WR Terrence Austin 2 2.6 1 0 0
WR Niles Paul 1 1.3 0 0
TE Fred Davis 8 10.4 7 3 42.9
TE Logan Paulsen 1 1.3 0 0
Totals 77 45 15 19.5% 57 100 5 8.8% 77 100 45 15 33.3% 57.5% 61.2% 42.5% 38.8%

Two of the more eyebrow-raising red-zone stats from last season were Jabar Gaffney’s team-leading 18 targets and Roy Helu’s 36 touches. The reasons behind their shock value are simple: Gaffney was sent packing despite his surprising play, made all the more impressive by the fact that his quarterback for most of last year was Rex Grossman. For someone so expendable, it seems odd that Gaffney more than doubled Fred Davis’ eight targets. Helu’s touch total was a bit odd since the team is now reportedly concerned with his durability and may limit him to 10-15 snaps per week going forward (which, I admit, is doubtful). Another bizarre statistic was the fact that a Mike Shanahan team scored on less than 10% of its red-zone runs and was decidedly pass-happy inside the 20. Because this is Team Shanahan, I will not even attempt to venture a guess about what player will dominate red-zone carries this season. What does seem certain, however, is that Robert Griffin III will have more than the four rushing attempts Grossman and John Beck combined for in 2011. Pierre Garcon will be an asset for the offense as a whole, but it will be an upset if Davis isn’t the leader in action inside the 20 this season. And if Leonard Hankerson can fully recover from hip surgery, he should be a more regular target than Garcon in the red zone as well.

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Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.


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