A d v e r t i s e m e n t
Preseason doesn’t matter. I get it, even if the third week
of the exhibition gives us our best look at each team before the
real season starts. I also understand that it is smart not to read
too much into preseason stats and/or player usage. But unlike the
majority of football fans, I do find value in watching preseason
action.
My job title doesn’t require me to watch all the preseason
games, but I do because – just like a coach – I want
to see players perform in certain situations. Other times, it is
about watching a player that I could not have watched otherwise.
Allow me to provide an example of each from this past week: Cedric
Benson and Alfred Morris. If I simply look at the box score of the
Packers-Bengals game, I’ll see Benson’s fancy 6.3 YPC
and likely start thinking that he has just been held back by poor
offenses for his entire career. (See what I actually think below,
it may surprise you.) In Morris’ case, I don’t have
the benefit of catching too many Florida Atlantic games, so watching
him start and log 14 carries – even if it is against what
projects to be a weak Colts defense – gives me some idea of
what to expect, even if I all I can get from it is his “running
style”.
Fantasy owners and writers can talk all that want about how they
discovered Arian Foster two seasons ago, but few people had him
ranked as a top 10 RB and mid-second round value in 2010 like I
did. Do I get some players wrong in part because I follow the preseason?
Of course I do; we all do. But I will likely always maintain there
is more than can be learned from the preseason than most people
realize, assuming you simply know what to look for within a given
game.
As I have mentioned many times before over the years, "value"
in drafting is key. Need has to outweigh value on occasion, but
for the most part, it can't hurt to take the best player left on
the board. It is understanding the delicate balance of realizing
a player is too good to pass up and knowing exactly when the last
spot in your likely Week 1 starting lineup needs to be filled that
often separates the great drafters from the very good ones. And
it is with both need and value in mind that I present my "Big
Board" in an attempt to earn both the respect and envy of your
fellow fantasy leaguers in 2012. Before I get to the boards, though,
I would like to remind each of my readers about a few key points:
1) my “Big Boards” are not going to look like many other
draft boards you see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies
heavily on consistency and matchups, not on overall fantasy point
total projections. All too often, fantasy owners and even the so-called
"experts" get hung up by the final numbers. Don't get
me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points at the end of
the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's not about the
destination, it's about the journey"; if my RB1 gives me seven
spectacular performances along with six duds during the regular
season, there's a fairly decent chance I may end up 7-6. I don’t
want that and neither should you.
2) I will push a player down my board
if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t
trust him. If you take the time to break down each position
I provide below, you will notice that I don’t follow the point
totals or averages to a tee. (Think of the average and value I provide
for each player as a starting point for my rankings.) Outside of
trust issues, I will push a player down my board – despite
a higher average or overall point total – if I believe he
will simply be less consistent throughout the season or if his playoff
schedule appears treacherous.
3) I would like to direct your attention to one other significant
change from seasons past. If a player is a moderate risk –
be it due to holdout, injury, off-field, etc. – your will
see a 
next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, your will see
a 
next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each player’s
“risk” with their spot on the Big Board, you may be
more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I am. This is
just another way of helping you take a look at the board and quickly
identifying how many players are relatively decent bets to frustrate
you at some point this season.
Note: At least for
this first set of Big Boards, I have chosen to stop at 175 players.
Next week – my third and final installment of The Big Boards
– will feature 200 players and a few tweaks I am looking forward
to sharing with you.
Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:
Red – A very difficult
matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should
not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White– Basically, this matchup
is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t
feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking,
these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..
Key:
OVR – Overall Rank
PR – Position Rank
FPts – Fantasy points scored
FPts/ G – Fantasy points/game
Value - Read *** below
***In short, the value that you will see below is based on the VORP
(Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB, two-WR league
with a flex spot, which allows me to essentially compare apples
and oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation
from the 12th player at the position – the last starting-caliber
player at the position. At RB and WR, the standard deviation is
based on the 36th player at the position. Unlike
last year, I make no assumptions about what position owners would
prefer at their flex spot. One last note to mention regarding
the values – numbers that are bolded reflect positive values
while the italicized numbers are essentially negative. (For the
more statistically-inclined, the former values are on the right
side of the bell curve while the latter values are on the left side.)
Last week, I mentioned
a tweak or two I wanted to share with you. If you take a look
at the “Pos” column on each board below, you’ll
see that I have taken the additional step of designating players
to their “fantasy position”, much as I did last season.
This year, however, I wanted to go one step further and explain
my definition – or at least what I look for – from
said fantasy position. Keep in mind that just because there may
be 12 teams in your league, it doesn’t mean there are 12
players worthy of being designated as a QB1, RB1, WR1 or TE1.
My definitions are below (numbers courtesy of the Consistency
Calculator):
QB1 – A player who can post #1 numbers (18+ fantasy points
in this format) in more than half of his games with the capacity
to deliver elite production (30+) in about 4-6 games.
QB1/2 – A player who can post #1 numbers with high upside,
but is either a poor bet to produce elite numbers or projected
to be too inconsistent to be considered a regular starter.
QB2 – A player who can post #1 numbers between 25-50% of
the time, but is best used on a matchup basis.
RB1 – A player who can post #1 numbers (16.5+ fantasy points
in PPR, 13.6+ in non-PPR) in more than half of his games with
the capacity to deliver elite production (23+ PPR, 18.8+ non-PPR)
in about 4-6 games.
RB1/2 – A player who can post #1 numbers with high upside,
but has an obvious flaw in his game (usually injury history or
timeshare) that keeps him from being one step higher.
RB2 – A player who can deliver double-digit fantasy points
in about half of their games, with the potential to be elite when
the matchup is right.
RB3 – A player capable of scoring double-digit fantasy points
in about six games a season.
RB4 – A player capable of scoring double-digit fantasy points
in about four games a season.
RB5 – Usually a “handcuff”, but a player who
is on the roster generally to keep the ship from sinking due to
injury.
WR1 – A player who can post #1 numbers (16+ fantasy points
in PPR, 10.8+ non-PPR) in about half of his games with the capacity
to deliver elite production (21+ PPR, 13.8+ non-PPR) in about
4-6 games.
WR2 – A player who can post #1 numbers in about six games
and consistently score double-digit fantasy points.
WR3 – Usually is an inconsistent “splash” player
(DeSean Jackson is a perfect example) that can win his fantasy
team with a huge performance.
WR4 – Usually a steady, lower-upside option that can be
spot-started and used as a bye-week fill-in.
WR5 – Typically is a player who lacks the talent to be a
regular starter or faces substantial hurdles in order to receive
playing time.
TE1 – A player who can post #1 numbers (11+ fantasy points
in PPR, 6.8+ in non-PPR) in about half of his games with the capacity
to deliver elite production (18+ PPR, 12.3+ non-PPR) in about
4-6 games.
TE2 – A player who can post #1 numbers between 25-50% of
the time, but is best used on a matchup basis.
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players in the PPR format (the
non-PPR board below will use the same scoring minus the full-point
point-per-reception):
Because this will be the final Big Board of the season, I
will mix in some quick hitters this week in an effort
to discuss more players.
Top 25: If the preseason were any
longer, Doug Martin might just move into the first round. All kidding
aside, the exhibition season has shown Martin is certainly ready
for the lead-back role in Tampa Bay. When owners stack up his potential
workload, the Bucs’ run-heavy scheme, his lack of durability
questions and ability as a rusher and receiver, there is really
no reason to rank him any lower than where I have him. In the somewhat
defensively-challenged NFC South, Martin could easily emerge as
the league’s best rookie runner.
One look at the 15-18 range will reveal three players (Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles and Ryan Mathews) that could either make or
break your season and one (Matt Forte) who I feel is going to be
more affected by Michael Bush than people realize. The promotion
of mobile QB Russell Wilson into the starting lineup should serve
as a nice boost for Lynch and Seattle’s running game as a
whole, but does fellow rookie Robert Turbin cancel that advantage
out by stealing more carries than we expect? Charles is clearly
not as explosive yet as he was prior to his ACL injury – nor
was he expected to be – but as a dual-threat weapon in a run-heavy
attack that will probably make sure he gets 250 touches, I cannot
move him much lower. Finally, Mathews will probably step right into
18-20 (or more) touches no later than Week 3. In a lot of ways,
he is the second-round version of Darren McFadden. If I already
have my RB1 and Mathews is still available to me as a RB2, he’s
my first choice (assuming McFadden isn’t also available in
the middle of the second round).
The potential for missed games seems to be the overriding theme
of top fantasy RBs this season, so let’s close out the top
25 discussion by talking about one of the first injury dominos to
fall – Trent Richardson. A rookie RB who was coming off the
board in the middle of the first round during early drafts has fallen
into the third round, with some people suggesting he is an injury
risk and shouldn’t be selected until the fifth. I’m
no doctor, but this isn’t the first time a loose body has
been discovered in a knee following a surgery. Considering it was
an injury he could have played with, owners should be glad he and
the team opted to get it fixed so he can run comfortably. In my
eyes, he is Mathews (in the sense that his first two games will
likely be a wash) with a better offensive line and a tougher schedule.
I hate to say this about a rookie that didn’t take a single
preseason snap and still recovering from an injury, but I believe
selecting Richardson at any point after the middle of the third
round is a pretty strong value pick.
26-50: I’m a bit surprised I
didn’t notice this after watching the first Dolphins’
two preseason games, but Reggie Bush looked noticeably bigger to
me in their third game against the Falcons. Along with that, I also
didn’t see his trademark speed or quickness either (which
may have been due to the wet field). With that said, Bush seems
to be a relatively safe pick in my eyes because after Davone Bess,
who else is going to carry the passing game? All things being equal,
I’d prefer not to consider anyone from Miami this season until
very late in drafts, but I also wouldn’t be scared to spend
a third-round pick on a player like Bush who we can be pretty sure
will be heavily involved in an offense where he will be featured.
Because he will likely push 60 catches, he stands a great chance
at matching or even exceeding last season’s production.
On the other hand, Ahmad Bradshaw is a very tough player to rank.
Given his success in the red zone in recent years, he isn’t
likely to lose his short-yardage responsibilities anytime soon.
However, rookie David Wilson is essentially a healthier version
of a young Bradshaw and will, at the very least, turn this backfield
into the latest edition of “Earth, Wind and Fire” (along
with D.J. Ware). Coaches are no different than fantasy owners in
the sense that when they see an explosive player like Wilson, they
find ways to get him in the lineup, usually at the expense of a
more proven option. The only question: when will that happen? When
one also factors in Bradshaw’s durability concerns, Bradshaw
strikes me as one of those players who may light up September but
fade as Wilson’s big-play potential simply becomes too hard
to ignore later in the year.
51-100: I am going to make one final
plea to owners considering Adrian Peterson relative to his current
2.3 ADP: I cannot imagine a scenario in which he brings the kind
of return to justify that investment. Let’s first remember
that Peterson was averaging just 1.5 catches per game in OC Bill
Musgrave’s conservative offense when he was healthy last year.
Is that not enough reason? OK, forget that Toby Gerhart is slated
for early-season lead-back duties and consider two other scenarios.
Jamaal Charles suffered a lesser (but similar) knee injury 14 weeks
earlier than AP and is nowhere near as explosive right now as he
was pre-injury. Rashard Mendenhall’s ACL injury was similar
to Charles’ and happened a week after Peterson. Mendenhall
is not expected to contribute in any real way until at least midseason.
So, an investment in Peterson within the first 15 picks of a fantasy
draft suggests he will not only cut the usual rehab time for an
injury as serious as his by about 50%, but that he will somehow
have complete trust in his knee and make Gerhart an afterthought.
All offseason, I have been reading and hearing about how Joe Flacco
has been lights-out. This past weekend against the Jags, I finally
saw it. It wasn’t the number of attempts, his final numbers
or the up-tempo offensive attack that grabbed my attention, it was
the first time I saw Flacco’s accuracy match his arm strength.
For most of his pro career, Flacco has been known as a strong-armed
signal-caller that just didn’t have enough consistency to
be anything more than a slightly above-average quarterback. Against
Jacksonville – which appears to be an underrated defense to
most general fans – I saw pinpoint accuracy with many of his
throws and more confidence in his play than I have seen from at
any point in his career. Perhaps some of that swagger can be attributed
to the play of Torrey Smith, who also skyrockets up my board this
week. I needed to see a player that was more than just a deep threat
and Smith showed me just that, catching a number of passes on drag
routes designed to get him the ball against zone coverage and allow
him to run after the catch. I think Anquan Boldin benefits from
all this as well, but he is still best suited as a WR4 in PPR this
year. If the Ravens use the no-huddle on a regular basis –
and they plan on doing so - Flacco should be considered a darkhorse
candidate to break into the top 10 of fantasy QBs this season. I
now believe Smith will finish in WR2 territory.
Jake Locker has drawn comparisons to a young Donovan McNabb due
in large part to his athletic ability and inaccuracy. Unlike a young
McNabb, Locker has better weapons than L.J. Smith, Todd Pinkston
and James Thrash. So while there is a pretty good chance that Locker
will not play the position as artfully as we would like, he will
be a factor in fantasy this season. Based on what I saw from him
against Arizona Thursday and throughout the preseason, he is already
applying some of the tricks of the trade in the pocket that a first-time
starter doesn’t usually have in his arsenal. Locker will be
hard to watch at some points – make no mistake about it –
but his athleticism and big arm is exactly what this offense needs
to be a dynamic one. Chris Johnson will benefit from a mobile quarterback
while defenses will need to respect Jared Cook, Kendall Wright,
Nate Washington and possibly even Kenny Britt (at some point) since
Locker can reach just any part of the field he wants.
101-200: In news that should surprise
no one, Justin Blackmon (playing the Roddy White role in Mike Mularkey’s
offense) is benefitting greatly from Jacksonville’s emphasis
on the short passing game while Laurent Robinson may not have a
shot at much fantasy value, at least if the preseason is any indication.
Even more impressively, Blackmon appears to have been a quick study
in the classroom and may be on his way to putting his offseason
troubles behind him. When we couple Robinson’s lack of preseason
contributions with the earlier reports that he was having trouble
picking up the offense, Robinson should probably go undrafted in
most normal 12-team leagues. Blaine Gabbert has more than enough
arm strength to make Robinson look good on a deep throw or two per
game, but Mularkey may be hesitant to turn Gabbert loose much early
in the season as he attempts to rebuild his confidence after last
year’s rushed disaster. Speaking of Gabbert, he is showing
the confidence I saw him play with last preseason. He should be
a decent bye-week fill-in during the middle part of the season.
If you look far enough down, you may find that I have left Dexter McCluster without a position on both boards. Even though the Chiefs
appear to be using him mostly as a slot receiver, he may be eligible
at RB in your league. I’ve ranked him assuming he will still
be listed as a RB, which would be a slight boost to his fantasy
stock at a relatively shallow position. He is not likely to be all
that consistent this season, but given the average quarterback play
and emphasis on short passing in Kansas City, McCluster could be
a 40-50 catch player if he becomes manages to see the field in about
half of the team’s offensive snaps.
A few Raiders have crashed the top 200 party this week. Taiwan Jones
– an oft-injured second-year RB out of Eastern Washington
– and Rod Streater – an undrafted free agent from Temple
– should now be squarely on the late-round fantasy radar for
almost every owner in 12-team leagues. Jones has a lot of Chris
Johnson in him in terms of speed and explosion and may just be the
handcuff to McFadden. How long that lasts – given his injury
history – is another question entirely, meaning McFadden owners
would probably be wise to grab both Jones and Mike Goodson in the
10th-12th round area. The potentially more impactful player early
on, though, may be Streater. The 6-3, 200-pounder has been incredible
by all accounts since the offseason program began and he has carried
that into the preseason. With injuries to Denarius Moore and Jacoby
Ford, Streater has moved into the starting lineup and been a regular
target for Carson Palmer. His role is far from secure, but the reason
he makes both lists is because both Moore and Ford have not been
able to stay on the field in their young pro careers.
Top 25: Not a big change near the
top, but enough of one to mention. LeSean McCoy leapfrogs Ray Rice
to move into second place after I subtracted one touchdown from
Rice’s year-end total (which just goes to show you how tight
some of these rankings are). I suppose the most notable change over
the past two weeks, however, is my willingness to move McFadden
into the top 10. I realize it completely goes against the “avoid
high-risk players in the early rounds” advice, but given the
complete lack of feature backs, it would be foolish for me to suggest
that I know for sure McFadden will get hurt this season. Yes, I
realize the odds he does are quite high, but as I have suggested
recently, pairing him up with a “safe” RB in the second
round (like Matt Forte, Steven Jackson or even Doug Martin) actually
ends up protecting your investment in McFadden. And even if he manages
to play just 12-13 games this year, aren’t those games going
to be just about as good as the top three backs almost every week?
While the hype surrounding Julio Jones has seemingly made him the
clear No.2 choice at his position, Jones has been nothing short
of amazing in the preseason with 13 receptions for 240 yards in
roughly six quarters of action. Obviously, I still fear that he
isn’t a great bet to last all 16 games, but he is as good
of a bet as any receiver to challenge Calvin Johnson atop the fantasy
receiver mountain. While I cannot support talk of Jones being a
first-rounder this summer, he has quickly become nearly impossible
to guard. With all the weapons the Falcons’ offense possesses,
defenses are going to be hard-pressed to scheme him out of a game.
26-50: Since Dallas has pretty much
assured itself of no off-field issues with Dez Bryant with the much-publicized
guidelines the young receiver must now follow (no alcohol, strip
clubs, midnight curfew and a rotating three-man security team…I
sense I can turn this into a good fantasy team name), owners can
be reasonably sure that he will be one of the top non-PPR receivers
in the league. As much scrutiny as the team is likely to receive
for essentially babysitting Bryant, the fact that he agreed to it
suggests to me that he is maturing, even if the whole thing seems
ridiculous for a grown man. I have a feeling this new “plan”
will go a long way in keeping Bryant from the kind of immature and
stupid acts that have plagued him since he entered the league. But
more than that, these rules – especially the security team
– may keep him away from a number of the bad influences he
has in his life.
Jordy Nelson gets a well-deserved move up the Big Boards this week
after I came to the realization that Jermichael Finley’s injury-plagued
preseason and Greg Jennings’ concussion probably gave him
the time necessary to bond with Aaron Rodgers to become option 1A
or 1B in this prolific offense. Finley will still get his share
of catches and scores, but it would be a surprise at this point
if Jennings and Nelson don’t end up with similar fantasy point
totals. I’m still a bit concerned about his weekly consistency
when everyone is healthy, but everything else is there for him to
enjoy another top 10-15 finish at his position.
51-100: It has always amazed me how
two observers can watch the same game and come away with two totally
different stories of what a player “is about”. Last
week, a mostly-trustworthy resource essentially stated that Rashad
Jennings pretty much “gets what is blocked and little more”.
I cannot remember a time when that statement was true about him
and last week’s game proved that point again. Look, I’ll
be the first to admit he’s not a dynamic talent, but he has
just enough elusiveness to make defenders think twice about trying
to lay the wood to him and his 6-1, 230-pound frame. He’s
going to be an early-season factor now regardless of whether or
not Maurice Jones-Drew gets into camp in the next week because the
league’s reigning rushing champion simply has too much to
overcome at this point to be useful to the Jags early. Forget for
a minute the history of holdouts disappointing and/or getting hurt,
MJD has a new offense to learn. Beyond that, Jennings was probably
going to eat into his carries anyway, even if he had been in camp
the entire time. My ranking of MJD on both boards is a reflection
of my opinion that he will essentially not produce much at all for
the first month of the season, making him an 11- or 12-game back
for fantasy purposes. Meanwhile, my placement of Jennings is most
definitely his “floor” for where he should be drafted
if we can assume this holdout continues into September. Of course,
we don’t know if that will happen, so my advice is to either
draft Jennings on the cheap or avoid both players entirely.
Speaking of disagreeing with the crowd, I was not blown away with
Cedric Benson’s Green Bay debut last weekend. While it is
true that he will probably never see more than seven men in the
box and reap the benefits of the most dynamic offense he’s
ever been a part of, I found it almost laughable when an opposing
team’s scout reportedly got “nervous” when watching
him and thought that he was the Packers’ best running back
since Ahman Green. Seriously, James Starks was more impressive during
parts of the Packers’ Super Bowl run during the 2010 season
than Benson was during this game. And if you don’t believe
me, I ask each of you to go re-watch the game and tell me how many
times a defender even touched Benson before he was five yards past
the line of scrimmage. Conversely, Alex Green dealt with defenders
in the backfield on just about every one of his runs. And the few
times I saw Starks run prior to his turf toe injury, he did so with
more authority than Benson has since his days at the University
of Texas. I don’t want to suggest that Benson didn’t
look good, but understand that creating big holes for running backs
to run through is a random occurrence and that any number of street
free-agent RBs can look “quick” when there is no penetration
and huge holes on inside running plays.
What Benson does offer is durability, which may be enough in Green
Bay’s backfield to put him on the fantasy radar. Just don’t
try to convince me he is a fantasy RB2 candidate in 12-team leagues,
considering how poor he has been at the goal line throughout his
career and that John Kuhn or Green will be a fixture on passing
downs. I also highly doubt Benson will steal the goal-line job from
Kuhn or (as seems to be the case with the Packers) Aaron Rodgers.
In the end, I expect about a half-season contribution from Benson
before Starks or Green finishes things out. Then again, rumor has
it that Starks could be released and Green is recovering from an
ACL tear; a setback for either player would increase my opinion
of Benson as a fantasy property substantially (seventh- or eighth-round
range in all likelihood). Much like the advice I provided for owners
interested in MJD or Jennings a few paragraphs earlier, either buy
at an extreme discount or avoid altogether.
101-200: Ladies and gentlemen, meet
the new Ryan Torain – Alfred Morris. (In all seriousness,
it is not that bad.) Sure, we have no clue whether he will start
in Week 1 – because the team has no other healthy alternatives
– or sit on the sidelines and explode in Week 5. As seems
to be the case with most of HC Mike Shanahan’s backs nowadays,
Morris doesn’t exactly possess one skill that will separate
him from the pack, but he is a 220-pound back with good vision and
just enough elusiveness to make the first tackler miss in the open
field. Just like every other owner out there, I don’t claim
to have a read on Shanahan’s motives, but it sure seems like
given Tim Hightower’s slow recovery from his ACL and Roy Helu’s
Achilles woes that the early-season workload will fall on either
Evan Royster or Morris.
Perhaps my favorite thing about Russell Wilson emerging as the starter
in Seattle is what I hope will be the beginning of the end of this
ridiculous notion that height is a major prerequisite to playing
quarterback in the NFL. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll take
a tall quarterback over a similarly-skilled signal-caller any day
of the week, but the great quarterbacks don’t spend much of
their time throwing over defensive linemen, they find open passing
lanes. And when they can move as Wilson can, they open themselves
up for even more opportunity. With all that said, I don’t
expect a huge year-one fantasy contribution from him as the leader
of a ground-based attack that added another physical runner in the
draft, Robert Turbin. Perhaps I would change my mind on this if
I knew for sure that Sidney Rice would stay healthy, but I don’t
know that and wouldn’t count on it happening. Since Edwards
and Golden Tate are working at split end (opposite Rice), I doubt
Edwards will just slide over to flanker if/when Rice goes down.
The reason I mention this is because Edwards would likely get stuck
running a lot of short and intermediate routes at his current spot
in OC Darrell Bevell’s offense, taking away the only other
Seattle receiver who can realistically benefit from Wilson’s
surprising ability to throw the deep ball.
Monday’s announcement that Austin Collie should be ready for
Week 1 is not only good news for him and his fantasy owners, but
it puts a bit of a damper on the emerging stock of rookie LaVon Brazill. I ranked Collie at the end of the 10th round on this Big
Board, but owners can expect him to provide them with a WR3 return
or better – even in non-PPR – if he can simply avoid
yet another concussion or related head trauma. Of course, there
is no way of knowing what the future holds for him, which explains
why I ranked him so conservatively this time. Then again, the rest
of your league is unlikely to value him any more than I do here,
meaning he could be a steal as a player who was emerging as Andrew
Luck’s favorite target before his most recent incident. Now,
in the event Collie does suffer another setback, Brazill is a something
of a raw speedster with relatively high upside in an offense with
a young standout at quarterback on a team that will need to throw
the ball a lot. Sad as it sounds, Brazill’s appearance on
the Big Board is an acknowledgement that Collie may be one hit away
from a season-ending injury.
As promised, let’s pay our respects to the kickers and defense/special
teams units that help us decide our fantasy fates each and every
season…once again, these are 15-game projections.
And now the defenses…
Bonus determined by the following benchmarks:
10 points for shutout or held to 2 points
7 points if held from 3-6 points
4 points if held from 7-12 points
2 points if held from 13-16 points
1 points if held from 17-20 points
0 points if held from 21-28 points
-1 point if give up 29-34 points
-3 points if give up 35+ points
| Defense/Special
Teams |
| Rk |
Team |
Value |
FPts/G |
FPts |
PA |
Sks |
INT |
Fum |
TD |
Bonus |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
| 1 |
49ers |
2.03 |
11.2 |
168 |
237 |
44 |
20 |
13 |
24 |
34 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2 |
Texans |
1.18 |
10.0 |
150 |
242 |
45 |
20 |
11 |
18 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3 |
Falcons |
0.71 |
9.3 |
140 |
307 |
38 |
25 |
8 |
24 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 4 |
Packers |
0.61 |
9.2 |
138 |
389 |
44 |
25 |
8 |
30 |
-2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 5 |
Eagles |
0.61 |
9.2 |
138 |
345 |
48 |
18 |
12 |
24 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 6 |
Bears |
0.61 |
9.2 |
138 |
327 |
38 |
16 |
11 |
36 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 7 |
Bills |
0.38 |
8.9 |
133 |
315 |
44 |
17 |
11 |
24 |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 8 |
Chiefs |
0.33 |
8.8 |
132 |
286 |
34 |
20 |
8 |
24 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 9 |
Steelers |
0.14 |
8.5 |
128 |
242 |
40 |
14 |
10 |
12 |
28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 10 |
Seahawks |
0.09 |
8.5 |
127 |
311 |
39 |
17 |
11 |
18 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 11 |
Broncos |
0.00 |
8.3 |
125 |
350 |
40 |
16 |
12 |
24 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12 |
Lions |
0.00 |
8.3 |
125 |
408 |
44 |
17 |
12 |
30 |
-7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 13 |
Giants |
0.09 |
8.2 |
123 |
363 |
44 |
17 |
14 |
18 |
-1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 14 |
Patriots |
0.14 |
8.1 |
122 |
348 |
36 |
18 |
11 |
24 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 15 |
Jets |
0.42 |
7.7 |
116 |
338 |
39 |
17 |
12 |
12 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 16 |
Chargers |
0.47 |
7.7 |
115 |
329 |
40 |
13 |
9 |
24 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 17 |
Ravens |
0.57 |
7.5 |
113 |
266 |
31 |
16 |
10 |
12 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 18 |
Redskins |
0.94 |
7.0 |
105 |
348 |
41 |
13 |
11 |
12 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 19 |
Cardinals |
1.23 |
6.6 |
99 |
383 |
41 |
12 |
9 |
18 |
-2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 20 |
Jaguars |
1.37 |
6.4 |
96 |
337 |
33 |
13 |
10 |
12 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 21 |
Rams |
1.41 |
6.3 |
95 |
378 |
38 |
13 |
8 |
18 |
-3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 22 |
Cowboys |
1.51 |
6.2 |
93 |
368 |
40 |
12 |
11 |
6 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 23 |
Bengals |
1.51 |
6.2 |
93 |
337 |
35 |
9 |
11 |
12 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 24 |
Raiders |
1.60 |
6.1 |
91 |
426 |
37 |
11 |
11 |
18 |
-8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 25 |
Titans |
1.60 |
6.1 |
91 |
389 |
34 |
12 |
9 |
18 |
-3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 26 |
Vikings |
1.18 |
6.0 |
90 |
439 |
46 |
8 |
13 |
12 |
-10 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 27 |
Browns |
1.74 |
5.9 |
88 |
379 |
29 |
15 |
10 |
12 |
-3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 28 |
Panthers |
1.93 |
5.6 |
84 |
398 |
33 |
12 |
11 |
12 |
-7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 29 |
Colts |
2.03 |
5.5 |
82 |
433 |
34 |
10 |
11 |
18 |
-12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 30 |
Bucs |
2.45 |
4.9 |
73 |
417 |
27 |
7 |
9 |
18 |
-4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 31 |
Saints |
2.55 |
4.7 |
71 |
429 |
30 |
11 |
8 |
12 |
-9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 32 |
Dolphins |
2.88 |
4.3 |
64 |
443 |
30 |
11 |
7 |
6 |
-8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Suggestions,
comments, musings about the article or fantasy football in general?
E-mail me or follow
me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006, appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview
magazine in each of the last two seasons and served as a weekly
fantasy football analyst for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington,
D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |
