All Out Blitz: Volume 57
11/29/12
Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy
owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes
hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat
man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against
a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense
brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes
the name of the game for the opposing team.
In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to
the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch
in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion
about a player too quickly results in making a bad situation worse.
However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes
quicker than your opponents is considered foresight and can often
lead to fantasy championships.
Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game
losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s
chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it
is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize
by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of
you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.
At this point of the fantasy season, the bye weeks are (thankfully)
over and preparations – which should have begun long ago –
can and should officially begin for a deep playoff run. But how
exactly does one make “preparations” now?
In short, making preparations for this final four- or five-week
stretch is nothing more than taking a good hard look at your roster
in much the same way you do at the trade deadline and figure out
what pieces of your roster will help and which ones could help
while eliminating those players that you are reasonably certain
cannot help you regardless of how much their situation changes.
Let me give you an example:
In my biggest money league, I traded for Donald Brown several
weeks ago as a RB4 with an eye on his upcoming schedule in case
I suffered an injury at RB to Darren McFadden or Darren Sproles.
As luck would have it, both got hurt and so did Brown (again).
However, a month later, it appears all of my backs are now back
– along with Trent Richardson – and I really don’t
see a scenario in which I would play Brown now. Sometimes, fantasy
owners refuse to swallow their pride and cut ties with a player
because they traded for him or because he’s a “starter”
or fear he will come back and hurt them if they let him go. All
of those are perfectly understandable reasons, but what exactly
is Brown’s upside even if Vick Ballard goes down?
So, what players should owners look at to replace the Donald
Browns on their roster? A good start would be the players I mentioned
in my “Lottery
Tickets” article about a month ago – a list that
provided six names that have already contributed in some way,
shape or form in at least one game since I wrote the article.
But really, all an owner really needs to do is think about which
players we have discussed over the course of the year –
the Bryce Browns and David Wilsons, for example – that have
incredible talent and just need a likely injury to a player in
front of them to make a splash. I could make it sound more complicated
than that, but it really isn’t.
As we near the fantasy playoffs, there just isn’t any reason
to carry dead weight on your roster. When the bye weeks end, a
marginal bye-week fill-in becomes dead weight when he keeps you
from acquiring a potential “lottery ticket”. So in
a sense, less can become more. In the same vein, I’m adopting
a similar approach for the remainder when it comes to this column.
With a full 16-game schedule to deal with now until the end of
the season, it becomes nearly impossible to watch each game and
thoroughly analyze two – if not three – aspects which
have an impact on fantasy. With that said, much of the season’s
story has already been written, so it becomes more important for
me to do what owners should be doing about now: focusing on that
last key waiver-wire addition or two or putting just a bit more
analysis into next week’s matchup that puts your team over
the top.
Texans-Lions
This was the first extensive action of Ryan Broyles’ pro
career and it is clear to me he is already the answer to the question:
“Who replaces Nate Burleson?” Broyles’ injury
history has been well-documented, but everything I see him do
is beyond what anyone should expect from a rookie receiver. He
runs crisp routes and obviously takes coaching well (such as the
first play of the overtime when he observed “scramble-drill
rules” and broke upfield, catching Matthew Stafford’s
pass as he was rolling to his left for a 40-yard gain. There are
any number of veteran receivers that do not make that play on
a weekly basis. His ability to battle back from ACL surgery twice
is further proof he has a maturity that other Detroit players
do not possess, especially those players who line up in the wrong
spot on purpose (right, Titus Young?).
The Texans’ defensive line is mostly intact, but the linebackers
and defensive backs are dropping like flies and it is starting
to show on the field. While no one can really expect to shut down
Calvin
Johnson, a healthy Johnathan
Joseph would have made it more interesting. Over the last
two weeks without a healthy shutdown CB, the Texans have surrendered
consecutive 350-yard passing performances, reminiscent of the
year before DC Wade Phillips and Joseph arrived in Houston. The
defense withstood the early loss of LB Brian
Cushing because it had the depth, but with ILBs Bradie
James and Tim
Dobbins both hurt, the Texans are on their fourth and fifth
options (Darryl
Sharpton and Barrett
Ruud) at the position. It probably goes without saying that
rosters are not deep enough anymore to carry five starting-caliber
inside linebackers AND a cornerback who can seamlessly replace
on the best cover men in the league.
Fantasy implications: It’s unclear when Broyles will officially
become the full-time starter, but I’m convinced he is the
perfect complement to Johnson as the trustworthy possession-oriented
receiver with just enough explosiveness to make defenses pay.
He’s a high-end WR3 in PPR going forward – as long
as Young is out (and likely beyond) – and can probably match
Burleson’s 2011 production in standard leagues. While I’ll
stop short of calling Houston’s defense a plus-matchup for
opposing offensive players now, this is a below-average pass defense
anytime Joseph is out and an average defense in general in its
current state.
Redskins-Cowboys
The pace – or lack thereof – continues to be the biggest complaint
I have with the Dallas offense each week. While more plays increase
the possibility that QB Tony
Romo will take more punishment, tempo is one way to limit
the number of blitzes and stunts the Cowboys’ porous offensive
line will see. Additionally, imagine how often defensive backs
would attempt to get physical with Dez
Bryant if Dallas picked up the pace. But further issues were
exposed in this game as well. Cole
Beasley does a fine job in the possession receiver role I
expected Danny
Coale to play before the start of the season, but this game
should, at the very least, serve as a wakeup call to the Cowboys’
coaching staff that Dwayne
Harris needs to be a bigger part of the gameplan. His 36-yard
catch on a deep crossing route against the Redskins’ zone is just
the kind of play that has been missing from their offense since
Laurent
Robinson left. They don’t need more players to assume Jason
Witten’s “security blanket” role, they need more players that
can create big plays.
Even though he “earned” a perfect quarterback rating
against the Eagles, Robert Griffin III was much more impressive
in this game. And it wasn’t because he burned a secondary
that was committing basic coverage errors, it was how he did it:
beating DC Rob Ryan had what he like to do most - blitz. Mind
you, RG3’s TD pass to Pierre Garcon was actually a poor
throw the receiver made a great play on, but his first and third
scoring passes (the deep ball to Aldrick Robinson and on the run
at the end of the half to Santana Moss) are perfect examples of
the mind-blowing potential RG3 has. It may be too early to say
he is the most accurate quarterback for someone with his athletic
ability that I have ever seen, but his skills alone as a passer
are good enough to be a quarterback in the NFL. The fact he has
insane track speed is just an incredible bonus.
Fantasy implications: Unless
someone has a direct line to HC Jason Garrett, there isn’t much
we can do about the pace this offense moves at right now. Depending
on how serious Miles
Austin’s hip flexor injury is, though, Harris would make for
a suitable desperation play in fantasy based on the limited film
I have seen of him. Garcon’s health is a huge factor going forward
for RG3 because it forces a defense to play him honestly. And
as we have seen, an honest defense against Griffin is usually
a defense that will get burned.
Patriots-Jets
I won’t deny after watching both of these teams’ games against
each other this season that New England has the far superior team,
but it has to irk New York fans that a team that can show efficiency
from time to time (i.e. the Jets’ wins over the Rams and Colts)
can be the NFL’s version of the “Bad News Bears” in games like
this one. Three fumbles in less than a half of a quarter, all
of which resulted in either quick-strike TDs or return scores,
is just the kind of inconsistency the Jets have become accustomed
to this season. And the blame is on everyone in this game: Shonn
Greene’s fumble on fourth down should have been a field-goal
attempt, Steve
Gregory’s fumble return appeared to be a botched FB dive in
which DT Vince
Wilfork essentially forced a fumble by pushing the offensive
lineman into Mark
Sanchez as he was trying to make something out of nothing
and the final fumble occurred on a hard hit during a return that
jarred the ball loose. But instead of the ball dropping straight
down – as it usually does – it shot straight up into the waiting
arms of Julian
Edelman (almost as a play had been drawn for him to come over
the middle on offense).
It might be a small observation, but Jets ILB Bart Scott has
lost a step, if not two, in his time with New York. And that fact
became painfully obvious on Shane Vereen’s wheel route that
resulted in his 83-yard TD reception. The Jets have surrendered
the second-fewest receptions to the running back position this
season, but looking over their schedule, it isn’t as if
they have faced a lot of teams that have dynamic options at the
running back position in the passing game. Then again, there was
a stretch of the season where they were so bad at defending the
run where offenses probably didn’t feel particularly motivated
to throw the ball to their backs.
Fantasy implications: This was a game that truly belonged in
Week 11, particularly the second quarter. As such, there isn’t
much that can said about it from a fantasy angle. The Patriots’
offense has caught fire and their team is unbeatable when a team
like the Jets simply hands them the game. Fortunately for the
Jets, their schedule doesn’t appear to be too taxing for
the likes of Scott with the Cardinals, Jags, Titans and Chargers
remaining. Chris Johnson and Ryan Mathews would be difficult for
this defense to defend in the passing game if the Titans and Chargers
were using them more in that regard, but they are not. Still,
it is a trend to keep an eye on as the season comes to a close.
Raiders-Bengals
Don’t look now, but the Bengals are actually playing up
to their talent level. BenJarvus Green-Ellis even looked explosive
in this game, although that is hardly the reason Cincinnati is
thriving these days. It comes as little surprise to me the increased
usage of Jermaine Gresham, Mohamed Sanu and Cedric Peerman has
coincided with the Bengals’ improved play. Gresham isn’t
being used considerably more than he was earlier in the season,
but smarter (as in the red zone where his size is a huge advantage).
Sanu looks to be every bit the physical possession receiver that
should have been A.J. Green’s sidekick all along as Brandon
Tate never made sense opposite the Pro Bowler and Armon Binns
has fallen to the wayside after an ankle injury. The fact OC Jay
Gruden has dabbled with Sanu at quarterback a time or two and
for a play at running back in this game is the kind of creativity
that I have been seeking from this offense all season long. I’ve
never claimed Peerman should be the starting RB, but this offense
has lacked a consistent big-play RB for years and he can give
Cincy that in 8-10 touches.
Continuing on my pro-Cincy theme, it tells me a lot about a team
when a defense actually does more than just “show up”
against a struggling offense. Carson Palmer was on the move a
lot in this game and that has been a theme over the last three
weeks when quarterbacks have faced this defense. (Forcing Eli
Manning off his spot a couple of weeks ago was critical to their
Week 10 win over the Giants.) This defense still isn’t as
hard-nosed as it needs to be to make a deep playoff run, but the
progress it has made since the bye has been substantial.
Fantasy implications: The “old” Bengals would have
looked at this upcoming stretch (@SD, vs. DAL, @PHI) and found
a way to finish 1-2, but this team – right now – is
playing the best football of any team in the AFC North. Sanu is
beginning to emerge as a fantasy WR3 (although his recent TD pace
is unsustainable), Peerman can be viewed as a bench option in
deeper leagues and Gresham should probably be starting in most
fantasy leagues. The defense/special teams unit – even though
it is far from elite – warrants a spot in most lineups as
well over the next three weeks.
Steelers-Browns
Usually, any game in which one team committed eight turnovers;
that would be the story. Far be it for me to criticize such a
well-run organization, but at some point, someone needs to start
questioning Pittsburgh’s usage of its running backs. While
running back isn’t technically a position that a team needs
to have stability at for the good of the team (i.e. the leadership
usually associated with a quarterback) or one that depends on
accuracy, rhythm is still very important. When a back is pulled
every series – whether he fumbles or not – a team
not only hurts itself by not letting its back get into that rhythm.
Furthermore, when a coach is pulling a back after every series
(or fumble), it implies the coach/coordinator doesn’t know
who “his guy” is at the position, which has to create
doubt throughout the rest of the roster.
Fantasy implications: Long story short, Isaac Redman has shown
himself to be a solid red-zone option. HC Mike Tomlin has suggested
Jonathan Dwyer has similar characteristics to Jerome Bettis and
Rashard Mendenhall has more speed and explosion than either one.
When each player fumbles, the answer should never be “next
man up” unless ball-security has been an ongoing issue.
The fact Chris Rainey was taking goal-line carries with all four
backs healthy tells us the Steelers are throwing everything against
the wall and hoping something sticks. This isn’t RBBC like
the Saints in which a team is trying to play to the strengths
of each back, this is RBBC hoping something good happens. As you
may have guessed, this position is a dice roll in fantasy until
further notice, even with Tomlin’s announcement that Dwyer
is now his starter.
Falcons-Bucs
"Just enough" for the Falcons
but there isn't enough Quizz on the stat sheet for fantasy
owners.
This was probably my favorite game of the week and one of the
hardest-hitting games of the season. In these types of divisional
matchups, running the ball and stopping the run take on added
importance because the other defense is naturally going to be
more familiar with its opponent. With that said, I’m convinced
Atlanta doesn’t win this game if not for its use of Jacquizz
Rodgers in this contest. We’ve discussed him ad nausem in
this space and despite the fact he isn’t Darren
Sproles-lite, he is just enough of a threat to make defenses
respect the running and short passing game. And with the talent
at receiver “just enough” at running back is good enough.
While not at the level of the Falcons’ passing attack,
the Bucs have a dynamic aerial assault of their own, so what does
it say about how far Doug Martin has come along when Atlanta admits
to making him the focus of its defensive gameplan? Vincent Jackson
has shed the reputation of being a deep-ball specialist –
although that is still probably what he does best – while
Dallas Clark and Tiquan Underwood have seemingly made Mike Williams
something of a non-factor in recent weeks as he has recorded two
of his three lowest target totals of the season over the past
three weeks. And it is Clark that intrigues me the most for the
simple fact that he is healthy and can be the reason this offense
takes the next step. Very few defenses can defend a back like
Martin, shut down a receiver like Jackson and eliminate the middle
of the field all at the same time.
Fantasy implications: It seems like I’ve discussed Rodgers
more than any other player this season, but it is only because
his presence makes the passing game that much better. While neither
Michael Turner nor Rodgers is a recommended play in fantasy, it
still bears mentioning their use of the two backs in this game
was what I had envisioned all along. As luck would have it, Tampa
Bay has very favorable matchups the remainder of the season at
each position. For Martin, he should be a top play all four weeks.
Jackson will probably see a fair amount of Champ Bailey next week,
but his fantasy playoff schedule is solid. As for Clark, Philadelphia
– in Week 14 represents his worst matchup.
Bills-Colts
Following the end of the 2010 season, HC Chan Gailey stated the
similarities between C.J. Spiller and Jamaal Charles were “striking”.
And when we get a chance to watch Spiller in a feature-back role,
it is hard to disagree. (Remember, Gailey was the OC in Kansas
City and was reportedly the “driving force” behind
the Chiefs drafting him.) To that point, Charles and Spiller both
share game-breaking ability, concerns about lasting an entire
season with a huge workload and, at least initially with Charles,
an unwillingness to run inside the tackles and inability to pick
up the blitz correctly. Charles has since become the back that
can do everything and it isn’t unreasonable to think that
Spiller will at some point as well. However, each of Spiller’s
last two games is a reminder that while he is a complete back
on the stat sheet, he has a ways to go before he is one of the
football field. Despite the fact that Spiller saw more touches
in this game, Fred Jackson played more total snaps (32-29) and
was in more often on pass plays (11-4).
Fantasy implications: One gets the sense that once Spiller can
be trusted in pass protection, he receive more than 60% of the
work – the number Gailey gave reporters on Monday –
regardless of the health of Jackson. But his unwillingness to
run inside – or willingness to bounce so many runs outside
would probably a more correct statement – is what is keeping
him from being a high-end fantasy RB1 right now because that is
not a description of a back coaches want at the goal line. While
it might be fair to say that Jackson is keeping Spiller from becoming
elite, it is really Spiller that is holding Spiller back. Regardless,
Spiller should be viewed in much the same light in fantasy circles
as Charles until further notice – a big-play multi-purpose
back that may not see goal-line touches and can see extreme fluctuations
in his workload from week to week.
Broncos-Chiefs
Somewhere between the Steelers’ RBBC (where backs are apparently
replaced when they fumble) and the Saints’ RBBC (where backs are
subbed for almost every down based on formation, situation, etc.)
was the Chiefs’ own take on the committee attack. On the first
series, the following was the sequence of run plays, the downs
they occurred on and the player that received the carry: first
down – Jamaal
Charles stretch run to the right, second down – Peyton
Hillis stretch run to the left, third down – Shaun
Draughn up the middle, second down – Charles stretch to the
left, first down – Hillis up the middle, second down – Dexter
McCluster sweep right, first down - Charles counter left.
And in case you were wondering, Charles dominated the snaps in
the backfield after that.
Fantasy implications: Sometimes I have to throw paragraphs like
the first one in there just to make sure you are reading. In all
seriousness, if a coordinator wants to play cloak-and-dagger with
his running backs, then stick with it. Sending in a running back
for one play and pulling him after it – especially when
the play doesn’t fit his skill set – isn’t keeping
the defense off balance as much as it is eliminating any chance
one player (or his offensive line) have of getting into the “flow”
early. But to abandon that methodology after one series simply
tells me this is another situation where a coach or coordinator
is hoping something sticks. The answer for a struggling offense
is never “let’s take snaps away from our best player”,
but that is exactly what Kansas City finds ways to do on a regular
basis.
Titans-Jags
People who simply read the box score will likely conclude that
Chris
Johnson had a disappointing day in a matchup he should have
dominated. I would argue this is the most complete game I’ve seen
from the Jacksonville defense all season long. Granted, Titans
OC Chris Palmer didn’t exactly reach too far into his playbook
and challenge the defense (yet again), but outside of the late
fourth-quarter draw play that allowed Johnson to rip off a 31-yard
run, the Jaguars would have stopped just about every NFL running
back in this game because their discipline and run fits were that
good. Very rarely do we ever see a beautiful performance from
a defense in football anymore, but what made this particularly
appealing to me was the fact that Jacksonville was doing this
without getting much penetration, which made stuffing Johnson
all the more impressive.
Fantasy implications: Nothing
I say here is going to make fantasy owners run out and pick up
the Jags’ defense, nor should they. Jacksonville doesn’t pressure
the quarterback and lacks playmakers in the secondary, which leads
to a lot of Cover 2. But one thing just about every NFL team can
do if it is disciplined enough is play assignment football and
limit the effectiveness of the opponent's running game. Typically,
on just about every big run in the NFL, one or more defenders
play “hero” football and attempt to make a play themselves instead
of stretching the play to the sideline or funneling the ball carrier
back inside (which one is the most advisable tends to be more
of a function of the defense that was called in the first place).
The reason I mention the Jags’ defense is because if they play
this well against the run in upcoming weeks, it might spell problems
for the likes of C.J.
Spiller (Week 13), Shonn
Greene (Week 14), Reggie
Bush (Week 15) and Stevan
Ridley (Week 16). One game does not a good defense make, but
this was a very good performance.
Seahawks-Dolphins
One aspect of coaching I look for in every sport is the ability
to take advantage of an opponent’s known weakness. The Seahawks’
defense doesn’t have many weaknesses, but the most glaring
is probably a slot CB (where the aging Marcus Trufant resides).
And if there is one player with the size and athleticism that
could to take advantage of Seattle’s linebackers/safeties,
it is probably Charles Clay. Lo and behold, Davone Bess and Clay
combined for 13 catches on 15 targets. With Brian Hartline and
Rishard Matthews drawing the coverage of the Seahawks’ huge
corners on the outside, Bess repeatedly beat the likes of LBs
Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright as well as Trufant to the tune of
a career-high 127 yards on the same intermediate routes that he
usually does. But the bigger surprise was Clay, who caught all
six of his targets and beat Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor a handful
of times, including a pretty wheel route in which he just exploded
past LB Leroy Hill for an easy score to tie the game at 21 late
in the fourth quarter.
Fantasy implications: While
Bess’ overall numbers were eye-popping, he is what he always has
been: a high-volume target player who won’t do much with the ball
once he catches it. After the new coaching staff suggested Clay
would be the Jermichael
Finley of their offense in the offseason, Clay has been included
in about as much action as his Green Bay counterpart. Depending
on your league’s setup, Clay could be listed as a RB, TE or both.
I’ve been saying since the preseason that he was should be a big
part of this offense, but while this performance could be a sign
of things to come, it had the feel of a fluky game for him simply
because his snap count (37) in Week 12 equaled his snap count
from the last two weeks combined and the matchup dictated that
someone besides Hartline and Bess would have to make plays in
the passing game. Clay is yet another player to monitor going
forward, but I’m not optimistic this is the beginning of a trend
yet given his lack of action up to this point.
Vikings-Bears
One would have to imagine that NFL teams operate in much the
same way any other workplace would in the sense that an employee
can sense when the “higher-ups” or his/her fellow employees don’t
have confidence in the assigned leader of a team. The difference
in the gameplan – and the speed at which it was executed – was
significant over the Bears’ Monday Night Football debacle against
the 49ers. Even the defense played with more confidence. The funny
part is that while Jason
Campbell isn’t Jay
Cutler, he is certainly worthy of being a backup in the NFL
and that was not reflected by the play of the Bears last week
nor was it reflected in the playcalling.
There was a comment made earlier this season that Minnesota didn’t
have a “Batman” and a “Robin”, but rather “two Supermen”, referring
to the fact that Percy
Harvin was no longer a sidekick to Adrian
Peterson, but something more of an equal. And to a large degree,
it is true when you consider the struggles of the passing game
without a healthy Harvin. But is that the fault of Christian
Ponder? As usual, the answer is yes and no. In this game,
Ponder threw eight balls that traveled more than 10 yards downfield
in this game. He overthrew three of them and four of them were
batted down or tipped by the Bears' defense. No one is going to
deny a quarterback should be better than 1-for-8 in those situations,
but the Bears – again, their game against the Niners notwithstanding
– are one of the better coverage teams in the league. But let’s
be real: how many quarterbacks are going to be successful when
the main cogs in the passing game are a rookie (Jarius
Wright), a veteran known for his inconsistency (Jerome
Simpson) and another veteran known more for his blocking than
play-making ability (Michael
Jenkins)?
Fantasy implications: As we discussed last week, the Bears may
not be all that much different on paper with Campbell under center,
but the players and coaches think so and that is sometimes the
only thing that matters for fantasy owners. It isn’t as
cut-and-dried as starting all your Chicago players when Cutler
plays and the opposite when Campbell does, but the appeal to playing
Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte drops significantly when Cutler
isn’t under center. If there is one upside to Harvin’s
injury, it may be that it has forced the Vikings to lean on Kyle
Rudolph again. He’s not the most dynamic option for sure,
but he is the clear top option in the passing game for Minnesota
when Harvin is out.
Ravens-Chargers
There were a number of things that stood out to me in this game,
so I’m going to adopt more of a rapid-fire approach: 1) even with
their offensive line issues, the Chargers are a difficult matchup
for the Ravens because Ryan
Mathews is a solid outside runner and Baltimore has struggled
against perimeter runs all season; 2) the Ravens are hurting badly
at CB and the Chargers have two 6-5 big-play receivers and tight
end to occupy the middle of the field; 3) Danario
Alexander is already the No. 1 receiver on this team; 4) half
of Joe
Flacco’s yardage and his only TD came in the last five minutes
of regulation and the overtime period AND 5) short of a cornerback
falling on his backside, fourth-and-29 should never get converted
in the NFL.
Fantasy implications: The Ravens didn’t just turn into
a decent run-stopping unit; this was the same defense that gave
up 134 yards on the ground to the parade of Steelers’ running
backs that didn’t bother to exploit the Ravens’ inability
to set the edge. The fact that San Diego – really the first
team in three weeks that possessed a running back capable of exploiting
that weakness – did not make that a regular part of the
gameplan is probably one of the many reasons HC Norv Turner will
not return next season. The inability of the Chargers’ receivers
to produce big games against the Ravens can be excused a bit given
the woes of offensive line, but both Alexander and Malcom Floyd
produced the bare minimum of what they should have because Turner
has turned this offense into a conservative one. Alexander, for
as long as he can stay healthy, is a keeper. He reported a couple
of weeks ago that his five-time surgically-repaired left knee
now feels like his right knee. He’s no Vincent Jackson,
but with no fewer than seven targets and five catches in any of
his three games since being named the full-time starter, he’s
on his way to becoming a fantasy stud. Flacco, as I have suggested
a time or two this season, is a riddle wrapped up in an enigma.
Owners can’t drop him because he is a talented passer in
a good offense, but his home-road splits are so polarizing that
is hard to justify keeping a quarterback that may only turn in
7-8 “good” starts a season on your roster.
Rams-Cardinals
Ryan Lindley looked sharp, strong-armed and decisive on his first
drive, but that was one of the few times he looked a veteran –
which is exactly what you would expect from a quarterback making
his first start. To be fair, Lindley is being asked to do the
impossible right now in Arizona, operating behind one of the worst
offensive lines in recent memory. Still, despite two back-foot
interceptions and some other mistakes, Lindley was not the reason
the Cardinals lost despite what the box score might say. He took
the check-down when it made sense to do so and when he missed
on a deep shot, he typically missed long (which is what coaches
want). No quarterback in his first start should be asked to make
52 throws, especially behind Arizona’s offensive line. Sacks
often don’t tell the whole story, but I think it is telling
that Lindley only took two sacks despite getting very little help
from the rushing attack. I was impressed that he had the sense
(pocket presence) to know the few times he could hold the ball
for a second longer and when he could not. Lindley entered this
spring’s draft as a quarterback some draft analysts stated
had attempted more “pro throws” than any other quarterback
in his class and that experience really showed in this game.
Fantasy implications: Perhaps the Cardinals’ upcoming game
against the Jets will help them stop their seven-game losing streak
but –as we’ve seen in Philadelphia – when the
offensive line takes a couple of big hits, the whole offense tends
to hit the skids. Still, I believe Lindley was as good in his
first starts as John Skelton ever was, so I tend to believe he
should be locked in as Kevin Kolb’s backup when he returns.
It is highly doubtful the rookie will be afforded the time –
on the calendar or by his offensive line – to overtake Kolb
this season, but the skill set really stood out to me. On the
negative side, all the traits he was knocked for in college –
inconsistency and a knack to trust his arm too much – were
apparent in this game as well. In the meantime, the Cardinals
represent a plus-plus matchup for the fantasy defenses of their
four remaining opponents over the remainder of the fantasy season
(Jets, Seahawks, Lions and Bears).
Niners-Saints
I think most of us had a pretty good idea as to how Colin
Kaepernick would play against an improving – yet beatable
– Saints defense, so my biggest question going into the game was
the usage of Darren
Sproles. Would he see his usual number of snaps (around 30)?
Would he see more rushing attempts to add even more juice to an
improving running game or would the emergence of Mark
Ingram and Chris
Ivory eliminate that part of his game entirely?
After this game, I left with another question: where has this
San Francisco defense been all season? Over the last two weeks,
the Niners have recorded 11 sacks – just six shy of their
total over the first nine games. It’s also worth noting
that all five of their sacks against the Saints came in the second
half and none came with more than four rushers. I ‘m not
a big believer in one game’s momentum carrying over to the
next week in football, but the second half was an absolute feeding
frenzy, especially considering Drew Brees had been sacked just
16 times entering Week 12. And this game marked the second time
in as many games the Niners picked off two passes after not having
done so all season long.
Fantasy implications: Sproles played his usual number of plays
and was predictably not involved in the running game – which
continues to be a bit of a puzzling trend to me as to why the
Saints seem to want to limit their most explosive running backs
(Ivory and Sproles) as runners. I got the sense this was a “get-your-legs-under-you-again”
game for Sproles, but the box score did him a favor because he
got his owners a few points late with a meaningless 35-yard catch-and-run
that boosted his final numbers. Still, he was targeted nine times,
so PPR owners can probably go back to expecting 13-15 points from
him, especially in games that project to be high-scoring battles
like this week’s game against the Falcons. As for the Niners,
it isn’t as if they have been bad in fantasy leagues that
give out bonuses for points allowed, but these past two weeks
are the first time since Week 4 they have been great for fantasy
owners. San Francisco has a schedule that will allow it to finish
strong – barring a road game against the Pats in Week 15
– for owners of its defense, so get the Niners’ defense
into your lineups and believe they are finally playing up to the
level they achieved last season in the turnover and sack department.
Packers-Giants
If you take nothing else from this column this week, remember
this nugget: although it has been around for a while and the Giants
didn’t create it, I expect the “Big Nickel”
package they used against the Packers to be the trendy defense
in the coming years. Much like the zone blitz was created to put
pressure on the quarterback using disguise without sacrificing
coverage, the big nickel – when a team has the personnel
to do it – gives defenses the ability to defend the three-
and four-wide packages they see each week without drastically
changing personnel, which comes in handy against the offenses
that like to go uptempo. Furthermore, with the presence of a good
run-stopping strong safety and two playmaking free safeties, a
defense doesn’t lose much when it comes to defending the
run, which can often happen when teams use a lot of nickel defense.
In this contest, the “Big Nickel” alone turned this
game into a rout and made Aaron Rodgers look human – save
for one poor play by CB Corey Webster on Jordy Nelson’s
long TD – because the Giants used so much Cover 2 in this
game. The Packers didn’t adjust accordingly – which
is why James Jones was shut out and Nelson didn’t get much
after his big play – so when Antrel Rolle, a key part of
this defensive package – was able to do a good job at trailing
Randall Cobb, Green Bay was basically powerless.
Fantasy implications: So what impact does this have in fantasy
now? Admittedly, not much. Looking into the future – as
I try to do with this column as much as possible – teams
are going to pour more and more resources into finding that tweener
safety/outside linebacker or hybrid safety/cornerback and do just
what the Giants did Sunday (and just as they did through their
Super Bowl run last season): use Rolle as a CB when the situation
calls for it and as a ball-hawking safety the rest of the time.
Just like the zone blitz, offenses can force a team out of it
if they can run the ball. But as the Packers showed us on Sunday
night, they aren’t a team that runs the ball much or likes
to stick with it when it isn’t working. Fortunately for
Green Bay, it won’t see this defense again anytime soon
because only one of its upcoming opponents has the personnel to
pull it off – the Bears – and they won’t be
changing their defensive philosophy anytime soon. But when it
comes right down to it, Chicago’s defense already has a
lot of the Cover 2 “Big Nickel” elements to it anyway.
Panthers-Eagles
There was one story and one story only from this game: Bryce
Brown. (Don’t tell me about Cam
Newton…he did what he was supposed to against a defense that
blows more coverages than some Pop Warner teams.) I believe I’ve
talked about the immense talent of this kid a time or two and
the only thing that has stopped me from discussing him more is
the fact that he is stuck behind perhaps the most elusive and
best all-purpose back in the game in LeSean
McCoy. When I first saw him this preseason, my first thought
was that he reminded me of a young Larry
Johnson. But watching him in this game, my mind gravitated
more towards Herschel Walker. Outside of graduating from the McCoy
school of carrying the football (not a compliment), I shouldn’t
need to tell you that comparing Brown to Johnson/Walker is pretty
high praise and it should provide some insight as to how incredibly
powerful and fast Brown is. Keep in mind the reason he wasn’t
chosen until the seventh round – character – but his 65-yard TD
run was special and indicative of what he can do going forward.
His contributions in the passing game going forward will be likely
be limited for another or two years simply because he has about
as much experience as a college freshman would have in terms of
“knowing the game”. But his talent is real.
Fantasy implications: Suffice it to say that I think most of
us were impressed by Brown’s debut. The fumbling issues
aside – which could have been expected – Brown’s
starting debut is about as impressive of a performance as I’ve
seen this season. Recent reports suggest that McCoy is still dealing
with concussion symptoms, so Brown may be a fantasy starter again
in Week 13. And against Dallas’ injury-plagued defense,
he could have another RB1-type of performance.
Suggestions, comments, musings about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA
Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last
two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for
106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member
of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |