Road to the Super Bowl
1/5/12
Whether you are still basking in the success you enjoyed in cruising
to your fantasy league's title, still smarting over your teams'
inability to close the deal or not quite ready to hang up your owner's
hat quite yet, playoff fantasy football may be just the thing you
need to end this season right.
I'll be the first to admit that playoff fantasy football doesn't
appeal to me quite as much as the usual 16-week marathon, but
that doesn't mean I don't still enjoy it. And coming off my most
profitable fantasy season yet, I'm looking to make a great season
even better. For better or for worse, I want to share my experience
with you (no matter which category mentioned in the first paragraph
you may fall under) in hopes that some of you can end this season
on a definite high note.
After winning one of my playoff money leagues last season, I’m
ready for another shot at the dough. In addition to owning one
NFL.com team, I will be taking part in several money leagues with
Fuzzy's Fantasy Football. My goal over the next four weeks will
be to help each of you through your decision-making process as
you attempt to boost your bottom line.
NFL.com
For a complete rundown of how players will score fantasy points
for your team, click on this
link. However, much of the content immediately below is included
on the “How to Play” page, so what I provide here
should be more than enough to follow along easily.
The object of the game is to pick the players you think will
perform best in their playoff matchup. Select one QB, two RBs,
two WRs, one TE, one K and one D/ST. You will earn fantasy points
based on their on-field performance during their game, and if
your player's team wins, you will have the option to carry that
player over to the next round, where he will earn a bonus point
modifier to his score.
For example, if you pick Drew Brees in the Wild Card round
and the Saints win, you can carry him over to the Divisional Round,
and earn two times (2x) the points he earns in his divisional
round game. If New Orleans wins again, you can carry Brees into
the Conference Championship round for 3x the points, and if the
Saints make the Super Bowl, you can earn 4x the points. In addition,
a user can select a player/defense in the Wild Card round even
if their team has a bye into the Divisional Round. In this case,
the user would not earn any points for the Wild Card round, but
would then be eligible to earn 2x points in the Divisional round,
since the player was on the team’s roster for two weekly
scoring periods. Further bonus point modifiers would also apply
as long as that player’s team continued in the NFL Playoffs.
NFL.com Scoring System |
Offense Statistic (QB, RB, WR, TE, K) |
Fantasy Points |
Rushing or Receiving Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Passing Touchdown: |
4 fantasy points |
Field Goal: |
3 fantasy points |
Passing, Rushing or Receiving Two-Point
Conversion: |
2 fantasy points |
Rushing or Receiving: |
1 fantasy point per 10 yards |
Passing: |
1 fantasy point per 25 yards |
Extra Point: |
1 fantasy point |
Defense/Special Teams (D/ST) |
|
Punt Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Kickoff Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Fumble Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Interception Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Allowing 0 Points: |
10 fantasy points |
Allowing 2-6 Points: |
7 fantasy points |
Allowing 7-13 Points: |
4 fantasy points |
Allowing 14-17 Points: |
1 fantasy points |
Allowing 18-21 Points: |
0 fantasy points |
Allowing 22-27 Points: |
-1 fantasy points |
Allowing 28-34 Points: |
-4 fantasy points |
Allowing 35-45 Points: |
-7 fantasy points |
Allowing 46+ Points: |
-10 fantasy points |
Team Win: |
5 fantasy points |
Interception: |
2 fantasy points |
Fumble Recovery: |
2 fantasy points |
Blocked Punt: |
2 fantasy points |
Blocked Field Goal or Blocked Extra
Point: |
2 fantasy points |
Safety: |
2 fantasy points |
Sack: |
1 fantasy points |
|
Before we get into the picks, let’s briefly review the
rules and how we may use them to our advantage: 1) passing TDs
are four points, so passing yards are valued more highly here
than in the Fuzzy’s leagues I’ll discuss later; 2)
all field goals are worth three points, which means we are more
concerned about volume of field goals than distance; 3) this is
a non-PPR format, which obviously favors the big-play threats;
and 4) team wins are worth five points, so picking a “winning”
defense is worth almost a touchdown and could be worth as much
as 3.5 TDs if you pick a defense from this week and that team
ends up winning the Super Bowl.
Given the bonus point modifier mentioned above, I could understand
an owner making the decision to pass on selecting a defense this
week and electing to get twice as many points from a defense such
as the Ravens in the Divisional Round. (I’m not saying I
would do that, just suggesting that it is a strategy to consider.)
Here are the most worthy candidates by position:
QBs
T.J. Yates/Tim Tebow/Ben Roethlisberger/Andy Dalton/Drew Brees/Eli
Manning/Matt Ryan/Matthew Stafford
On bye: Tom Brady/Joe Flacco/Aaron
Rodgers/Alex Smith
RBs
Arian Foster/Ben Tate/Willis McGahee/Isaac Redman/Cedric Benson/Pierre
Thomas/Darren Sproles/Chris Ivory/Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs/Michael
Turner/Kevin Smith
On bye: BenJarvus Green-Ellis/Danny Woodhead/Ray Rice/Ryan Grant/James
Starks/Frank Gore
WRs
Andre Johnson/Demaryius Thomas/Eric Decker/Mike Wallace/Antonio
Brown/A.J. Green/Jerome Simpson/Marques Colston/Lance Moore/Hakeem
Nicks/Victor Cruz/Roddy White/Julio Jones/Calvin Johnson/Nate
Burleson/Titus Young
On bye: Wes Welker/Deion Branch/Anquan Boldin/Torrey Smith/Greg
Jennings/Jordy Nelson/Michael Crabtree
TEs
Owen Daniels/Heath Miller/Jermaine Gresham/Jimmy Graham/Jake Ballard/Tony
Gonzalez/Brandon Pettigrew
On bye: Aaron Hernandez/Rob Gronkowski/Ed Dickson/Dennis Pitta/Jermichael
Finley/Vernon Davis
Ks
Neil Rackers/Matt Prater/Shaun Suisham/Mike Nugent/John Kasay/Lawrence
Tynes/Matt Bryant/Jason Hanson
On bye: Stephen Gostkowski/Billy Cundiff/Mason Crosby/David Akers
D/ST
Texans/Broncos/Steelers/Bengals/Saints/Giants/Falcons/Lions
On bye: Patriots/Ravens/Packers/49ers
Let’s get to my picks and my rationale for each position:
QB: Drew
Brees. As if there was any doubt. Frankly, there are only
four legitimate candidates to consider this week, in my opinion.
Yates and Dalton are rookie QBs for conservative offenses. Defenses
are learning the way to beat Tebow is to keep him in the pocket,
so with the Steelers doing a fine job stopping the run over the
second half of the season, Tebow is not a good bet to put up more
than one score. Roethlisberger is still bothered by his ankle
injury, making him and just about every other Steelers receiver
a difficult play.
Therefore, we are left with the four NFC quarterbacks playing
this weekend. The Giants-Falcons game is too close to call in
my mind, so since I want the best player whose team also has a
great chance to make a deep playoff run, I’ll look at the
Detroit-New Orleans game. Fortunately, we can look to the teams’
Week 13 matchup for some guidelines on what to expect production-wise.
It would qualify as a major upset if this game failed to produce
at least 55 points, so with both teams very pass-happy and both
defenses somewhat questionable (to be kind), this is the game
to load up on in playoff fantasy leagues. Brees has a ridiculous
122.4 QB rating at home this season to go along with a 29:6 TD-INT
ratio in those eight games, meaning he is the clear favorite to
be the high scorer in fantasy this week. If you want an added
bonus, San Francisco would be the Saints’ next opponent
in the divisional round. While the matchup is not ideal, the Niners
can be defeated through the air much easier than on the ground,
which certainly works in New Orleans’ favor.
RB: Arian
Foster and Ray
Rice. In this kind of multiplier format, it is important to
weigh a player’s potential production vs. the number of
potential games that player is likely to play. Of the teams playing
this weekend, I have little faith that the Falcons, Giants, Lions,
Broncos and Bengals will play more than two games. Since none
of these teams possess what I consider to be an elite RB, I feel
safe in eliminating the runners from each of those teams.
Therefore, we are left with Foster, Tate, Redman, Sproles, Thomas
and Ivory. Redman has three- or four-game potential, but I haven’t
really bought the Steelers as a title contender all season long
and I don’t exactly like their chances to beat Baltimore
(or that potential matchup, for that matter) should they advance
past Denver. Thomas and Ivory cancel each other out to a large
degree and could see fewer touches in favor of the more explosive
Sproles during the playoffs since the scatback’s workload
has been managed so well this season, so we’ll drop the
first two Saints’ RBs and advance Sproles. Obviously, we
are left with the two Texans RBs at this point and the only true
elite option at the RB position this week is Foster, who I tend
to believe owners will get at least two games out of this playoff
season. Tate’s usage – when Foster is healthy –
depends too heavily the Texans’ ability to blow an opponent
out, so I am left with getting a head start on next week (Foster-Rice)
or production this week (Foster-Sproles) with the option to change
my mind next week on Foster if the Texans face the Ravens without
paying for it too much when it comes to the multiplier. Since
I’m leaning towards a Ravens-Saints Super Bowl right now,
I’ll go with the latter option. That way, I get an elite
back’s production this week and a shot at the 2x and 3x
multipliers with Rice in the coming weeks without taking a zero
at the position this week.
WR: Victor
Cruz and Marques
Colston. Unlike the RB position, we have a number of studs
available to us this week, which makes this selection process
quite a bit more difficult. Once again, though, let’s eliminate
some players from consideration given the offense they play in
or their injury status. I have zero faith in the Broncos WRs to
produce against Pittsburgh or play two games. While either Andre
Johnson or A.J. Green will play two games, neither one is a good
bet to play more than that and both play on average passing attacks.
Johnson is also on a bit of a snap count (reportedly 40-50 this
week). No one else from either team (such as Jerome Simpson or
Kevin Walter) is even worth consideration in this format. Thankfully,
we have already removed three of eight teams from consideration.
Once again, Steelers’ players warrant consideration, but
I’ll pass with Roethlisberger still clearly slowed by his
ankle injury and my doubts that Pittsburgh will play more than
two games. I definitely like Julio Jones, Roddy White and Hakeem
Nicks, but since I like what the Giants have done on defense lately
and because Nicks will see Falcons CB Brent Grimes at least some
of the time, I am hesitant to use any of those high-upside receivers.
Calvin Johnson is a strong consideration here, but I am pretty
confident the Saints will win at home this week by going to extreme
measures to make sure someone else besides Megatron beats them,
making him a questionable play and any other Lions’ receiver
a dicey one-week play at best. Obviously, I want as many three-
and four-week players on my team as possible. But I also don’t
want to take a zero in the first week if I don’t have to,
especially if I think one player is the play of the week at his
position. That player in my opinion is Cruz, who is huge mismatch
for every Falcons CB not named Brent Grimes. As for Colston, he
should benefit from the added receptions he should get with Moore
injured and the attention that Jimmy Graham attracts. By going
with Colston, I should lock up at least three games of top-level
WR production.
My plan at this moment is to replace Cruz with Nelson next week
– which I’ll get into at that time – and pair
him up with Colston until either the Saints or Packers are ousted.
At that point, I’ll see what AFC receiver I like the most
for the Super Bowl. This is not an ideal scenario, but with New
Orleans my best bet for four games (and with Moore hurt and Devery
Henderson/Robert Meachem so inconsistent), riding any other Saint
WR is not a risk worth taking. The way I see it, I should only
have to make four changes to my lineup over the next four weeks
(three next week to replace Cruz, Foster and my defense and one
to replace the receiver that doesn’t make the Super Bowl
in the proposed Packers-Saints matchup).
TE: Jimmy
Graham. This is a pretty clear-cut choice. The only other
candidates that warrant consideration are Pettigrew and maybe
Gonzalez, but since I believe both TEs are players on one-and-out
teams, I’ll pass. I suppose I could make a case for Gronkowski,
but I think I like the Saints’ chances of making the Super
Bowl more than I do the Patriots’. If I turn out to be right
here, there’s no reason to take a zero this week to play
Gronkowski when I can get similar or better production from Graham
this week as well as next week.
K: John
Kasay. If there is one position where it makes sense to “play
the matchups” each week in this scoring format, it might
be here. Without a doubt, Akers is the best option but I’m
not exactly giddy about the Niners’ odds of beating the
Saints or Packers (although I believe they have a better shot
than most think), making Akers a possible one-week option. But
in my attempt to stay true to form, the Saints strike me as the
team with the best shot at giving me three (if not four) games,
so I’ll roll the dice that New Orleans will give me two
shootouts (vs. Detroit and at Green Bay), one field-goal fest
(at San Francisco) while giving me the added caveat of a possible
fourth game, which no other kicker playing this weekend has in
my honest opinion.
D/ST: Steelers. This is another
position in which it would make sense to play the matchup each
week. Because the “team win” component stands out
for the defense/special teams, it becomes quite advantageous to
select a unit that will likely win unless a projected losing defense
can be counted on to score on a return (which typically it cannot).
Again, I’m going to give Houston, Denver, Cincinnati, New
York, Atlanta and Detroit the boot right off the bat because I
don’t believe any of them have a great shot at playing more
than two games. This quickly leaves us with just Pittsburgh and
New Orleans from this week’s teams and the Saints simply
don’t score enough fantasy points (or have great potential
matchups) to justify using them. Of the defenses on a bye, only
the Ravens and Packers warrant consideration since the Patriots’
defense is awful and I believe the Niners will be one-and-done.
The Packers’ defense isn’t all that likely to score
all that well next week vs. the Falcons/Giants winner. As for
the Ravens’ defense, is it worth sacrificing the points
I will get from Pittsburgh if it copies the blueprint of Denver’s
last three opponents? I don’t think it is.
Fearless predictions for my selected team:
Brees: 380 passing yards, four passing TDs (31 fantasy points)
Foster: 80 rushing yards, one rushing TD, 40 receiving yards (18
points)
Sproles: 50 rushing yards, 40 receiving yards, one receiving TD
(15 points)
Colston: 85 receiving yards, one receiving TD (14 points)
Cruz: 130 receiving yards, one receiving TD (19 points)
Graham: 90 receiving yards, one receiving TD (15 points)
Kasay: four extra points, two field goals (10 points)
Steelers DST: 10 PA, three sacks, three turnovers and a team win
(18 points)
Projected Total: 140 fantasy points
Fuzzy’s
Many of the scoring parameters used above apply here as well.
The key differences are as follows: no bonus point modifiers (including
team-win points). More fantasy points are awarded to kickers who
kick long field goals, PPR scoring is used and all TDs are worth
six points. In short, your goal is to pick the highest-scoring
lineup each week with no strings attached. Additionally, each
owner is asked to select a tiebreaker each week which will be
used to break any ties following the Super Bowl. Fuzzy's leagues
contain no more than 50 teams whereas most other major sites employ
a one-man-against-the-world approach. As a result, 20% of the
entrants into Fuzzy's playoff leagues will - at the very least
- recoup their entry fee, with first through ninth place receiving
a nice return on investment for their troubles. Follow this
link for a complete list of the rules.
Position Requirements: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K,
1 Defense/Special Teams
Since I will be playing with several teams with Fuzzy’s
this season, I’ll simply list my teams below and present
a brief overview on my overall thought process. Depending on how
strongly I feel about matchups in a given week, I may use the
same lineup in more than one league, but in general, I believe
in “diversifying my portfolio” in the postseason as
well.
Fuzzy Portfolio |
|
Team 1 |
Team 2 |
Team 3 |
Team 4 |
QB |
Brees |
Brees |
Brees |
Brees |
RB |
Foster |
Foster |
Foster |
Foster |
RB |
Sproles |
Sproles |
Sproles |
Sproles |
WR |
Colston |
Colston |
Colston |
Cruz |
WR |
Cruz |
Cruz |
Cruz |
Nicks |
WR |
White |
White |
Jones |
White |
TE |
Graham |
Graham |
Graham |
Graham |
K |
Kasay |
Nugent |
Nugent |
Kasay |
DST |
Steelers |
Steelers |
Steelers |
Steelers |
Tie |
Stafford |
Stafford |
Stafford |
Stafford |
|
As I stated in the above section regarding the QBs, there are
four realistic options this week – Brees, Manning, Stafford
and Ryan. Although Manning and Ryan are solid choices, both offenses
believe in the ground game a bit much for my liking when it comes
to fantasy production. Throw in the fact that the Giants and Falcons
have been playing fairly good defense lately and I think it is
in my best interest to avoid them for now. On the other hand,
Brees and Stafford are each playing on aggressive, pass-heavy
offenses that will continue passing almost regardless of game
situation. Further consider that neither the Saints nor the Lions
defense represents all that taxing of a matchup and you have the
recipe for a plethora of fantasy points, which is why Brees and
Stafford will serve as my starting QB or tiebreaker option on
every team this week.
In this PPR format, I see only three RBs worth considering this
week: Foster, Sproles and Bradshaw. Because I’m simply trying
to find the top plays at each position in this format –
as opposed to making decisions for next week and beyond in the
NFL.com game – I want dual-threat RBs that have a shot at
the goal line. Strong cases could be made for Redman, Thomas,
Turner and Smith for various reasons, but when it comes right
down to it, how much do I trust any of those four RBs? For Redman,
his value is limited if he doesn’t find the end zone, which
is also the case that should be made against using Turner as well.
Smith is too much of an injury risk, while Thomas usually registers
fewer touches than Sproles and isn’t quite as explosive.
Ultimately, Atlanta is a tough-enough run defense that I’ll
roll with Foster and Sproles and bet that each player can produce
20 or more fantasy points for me.
As I alluded to above, I tend to believe receiver will be the
position that helps playoff teams sink or swim this postseason.
With so many quality options, let’s just cut straight to
the most serious candidates: Brown, Colston, Nicks, Cruz, White,
Jones and Calvin Johnson. Mike Wallace usually lines up on the
right side of the formation (especially since Brown has emerged),
which is typically the same receiver Champ Bailey squares off
against. Brown has pretty much been Wallace’s equal since
October, so if he draws Andre Goodman in coverage more than Wallace
does, it suggests to me Brown could have a bigger day. Since we
discussed Colston’s merits already, I’ll move on to
the Giants’ WRs. Nicks is still Eli’s top option in
New York, but I expect that he will draw the underrated Brent
Grimes in coverage quite a bit whereas Cruz could have a field
day in the slot should Chris Owens or Dominique Franks be tasked
with guarding him. Keep an eye on Grimes’ health, however,
because if he cannot go, both Nicks and Cruz could be in for huge
games.
A similar case could be made for New York’s opponent, which
has two elite options of its own. While Jones was one of fantasy’s
best receivers at the close of the fantasy season, I will almost
always err on the side of a player who sees the most targets and
is his QB’s most-trusted receiver when setting a lineup,
which is why I would lean ever so slightly towards White if I
had to choose between the two. Last but not least, there is “Megatron”.
Although he is perhaps the most physically-dominant receiver in
the game today, I cannot erase the memory of the respect the Saints
paid him in their first meeting. On at least one play at the goal
line, they double-teamed as if he was a gunner on punt coverage.
On other plays, they basically set up a five-yard-wide triangle
around him, making it a foolish proposition to throw the ball
in his direction. Perhaps I will regret it, but I doubt I will
start Johnson in any of my leagues this week because I expect
Saints DC Gregg Williams will use the same strategy this week
to force Burleson or Young to win their individual battles.
At TE, Graham is an easy call for all the reasons I provided
in the NFL.com section. As for my kicker, field-goal distance
matters, so I want an option that will net me at least 3-4 extra
points and can provide me 2-3 field-goal opportunities. (If that
kicker has the added benefit of playing in a dome, even better.)
As a result, I’ll choose the kickers in the likely shootout
in “The Big Easy” as well as the kickers at Reliant
Stadium in what could turn into a battle of field goals. I’ll
lean toward Kasay (because he should be busy all day) and Nugent
(14 of his 33 made field goals this year came from over 40 yards,
which gives me one more point than a >40-yard field goal does
in this scoring system).
Without a doubt, I believe the Steelers have the best defensive
matchup this week, even though I don’t like that S Ryan
Clark will miss the game due to his sickle cell trait and how
it affects him at altitude. Tebow still has much room for growth
as a pocket passer, which is exactly what I expect DC Dick LeBeau
will make him be in this game. Because Pittsburgh should also
shut down McGahee, it is unlikely Denver will score more than
10 points on offense. When you also consider Tebow has been committing
a number of turnovers lately, it just adds to the appeal of using
the Steelers DST.
With very few exceptions, my tiebreaker picks each week will
either be Brees, Rodgers or Brady. Not only do quarterbacks score
the most fantasy points in this kind of scoring setup, but there
are the best bets to post huge games each week.
One last note: I feel obligated to tell you that some of
my selections could change between now and the start of the playoffs
based on injury information and such, but I highly doubt I will
make more than one or two alterations.
Suggestions, comments, musings about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared
in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each
of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football
analyst for 106.7 The Fan in Washington, D.C. this past season.
He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
You can also follow him
on Twitter.
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