All Out Blitz: Volume 33
9/22/11
Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy
owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes
hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat
man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against
a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense
brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes
the name of the game for the opposing team.
In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure
to the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to
the punch in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a
conclusion about a player too quickly results in making a bad
situation worse. However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks
or two minutes quicker than your opponents is considered foresight
and can often lead to fantasy championships.
Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game
losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s
chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as
it is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big
prize by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help
each of you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.
For those few fantasy owners who came away from this week without
an injury to your roster and/or a blemish in your win-loss column,
congratulations – you are part of a very select crowd. One
of the many challenges that makes fantasy football different from
every other fantasy sport is that at least once each
season, a single week can knock out a number of above-average
or elite players.
Call it what you want – I call it a reshuffling of the
deck – but there are a number of times each season when
the cards that made a winning hand just a week or two earlier
no longer are considered viable. Owners who either dominated their
league’s draft (or felt like they did) come falling back
down to earth while some of the supposed bottom-feeders have an
opportunity to make a move up the standings. Thus, it becomes
important that fantasy owners are quick to realize the game has
changed before the money runs out.
In keeping true with the poker analogy, let’s first look
at the important fantasy players who have been tossed aside (either
for a bit or for the season) and some suggestions for what owners
can do in their absence:
– One of the seven true RB studs available to owners
in this summer’s drafts and perhaps the most electrifying player
of the bunch, Charles become the first fantasy first-rounder to
hit the deck when he tore his left ACL in Week 2. While his owners
can take a bit of solace in the fact that another Chiefs’ RB on
some other owner’s roster won’t immediately step in and put up
Charles’ big fantasy numbers at their expense, it does little
to soothe the pain of losing one of the few “building blocks”
that owners have available to them at the RB position. As much
as NFL teams now believe in the “next man up” philosophy, the
truth of the matter is that few teams – real or fantasy – have
a replacement capable of filling the shoes of the player that
was just lost. Certainly, Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster will
see their fantasy stock rise, but Jones’ age and McCluster’s size
figure to make this backfield one of the least productive ones
in fantasy going forward.
Advice: The options available to
fantasy owners needing to replace Charles will – of course – depend
on the size of your league, but in my 18-player, 12-team money
leagues, the best free agent RBs in at least one league are players
like Roy Helu and DeMarco Murray. In situations like this, my
best advice is to sell the player on your roster that is outperforming
his draft position the most up to this point and see if you can’t
land another capable RB and perhaps a replacement for the position
of the player you are trading away. Unfortunately, there just
isn’t a great deal owners can do in this situation other than
to stash a high-upside RB to replace Charles on your roster (Murray,
Helu and the Eagles’ Dion Lewis all qualify) and wait for an injury
or role change from that player. Given how much Jones has fallen
off, the best Chiefs’ going forward in PPR and non-PPR is probably
McCluster, although I can’t shake the feeling that Le’Ron McClain
will assume a quasi-feature-back role at some point, for whatever
that is worth in this offense.
- the entire Cowboys’ offense – Frankly, I can’t
remember the last time a team had all of their skill-position
players hurt this early in the season. The headliner is Miles
Austin simply because he figures to miss the most time – at least
in the short term – because he re-aggravated his preseason hamstring
injury. The current speculation is that he will miss the two games
before the Cowboys’ Week 5 bye and try to go in Week 6. Dez Bryant
missed Week 2 and is questionable right now for Week 3, but if
should go this weekend, he could produce at a WR1 level in fantasy
until Austin returns. By now, the world knows about Tony Romo’s
rib and lung situation, which should put his owners on notice.
Felix Jones separated his shoulder early in Week 2, but did return
to the game, albeit in limited fashion as Dallas chose to rotate
him with rookie DeMarco Murray and Tashard Choice throughout the
rest of the game. Even Jason Witten had to have his ribs checked
out after the game.
Advice: From a fantasy perspective,
Austin is probably the easiest of these players to replace immediately,
although his production will not be duplicated by any player available
on the waiver wire. Of this week’s hot waiver-wire receivers,
I would put the most faith in the Bills’ David Nelson and the
Raiders’ Denarius Moore. As for Romo owners, consider this injury
as a gentle reminder to add Jon Kitna in the very near future
because the probability that Romo will miss some snaps or games
this season is now fairly high. Given the complete lack of faith
the Cowboys have shown in Choice in recent years, the smart add
here is probably Murray. However, Choice was the first one RB
out on the field following the injury and appeared to be the choice
on passing downs, although I expect this to be somewhat of a non-issue
going forward. The fact that Jones has the full support of ownership
and the coaching staff should mean he will return to his feature-back
role if he is able. Since he was able to return to the game –
wearing a shoulder harness, mind you – he should be ready and
expected to touch the ball at least 15 times in Week 3.
– I had the option of selecting Vick in the second round
of my money league drafts a time or two this summer, but his penchant
for getting hurt is almost always the first reason owners use
when they pass on him and one of the major reasons I chose to
do so as well. Here we are again, although this latest injury
is not one that came as a result of his running ability, but more
because of bad luck and bad timing in the pocket. (And, in all
honesty, the way he suffered his injury Sunday night could have
happened to any one of 31 other quarterbacks.) Given the force
with which his helmet hit teammate Todd Herremanns’ helmet, Vick
was probably very lucky to escape with a “mild” concussion and
a bleeding tongue. The bigger long-term issue is the inability
of the Eagles’ offensive line to consistently give him a solid
pocket to work with – it was a problem in the preseason and Week
1 as well – so we may not be done with Vick injury updates this
season.
Advice: Vince Young is unlikely
to be ready as he continues to rehab his hamstring injury, so
in the event Vick has to miss at least one game, HC Andy Reid
will turn to Mike Kafka, who showed well in his relief appearance
vs. the Falcons. Philadelphia liked what it saw enough from Kafka
over the last year-plus that it was willing to part with Kevin
Kolb, so Vick’s potential Week 3 absence shouldn’t send the owners
of Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson or LeSean McCoy into panic attacks
(although Jackson probably suffers the most if Vick cannot play).
Reid’s teams will throw the ball regardless of who is under center,
so with the Giants’ injury-ravaged secondary next on the schedule,
Vick owners should make a play for Kafka and feel good about their
QB situation heading into this weekend.
– Hernandez encompasses the highs and lows of fantasy
football. Two weeks into the season, fantasy owners could start
believing they have landed themselves a mid-to-late round steal
in an offense that appears to have no weaknesses. Now, he is a
good bet to miss at least 1-2 weeks (or 4-6 weeks, depending on
the source) due to a sprained MCL, meaning the second-highest
scoring TE in PPR leagues could miss as much as 30-40% of the
fantasy season if the least optimistic projections of his recovery
are true. Hernandez represents one of the biggest mismatches that
Tom Brady is able to exploit each week, as his 18 targets and
14-165-2 receiving line through two games will attest.
Advice: It was advisable to start
talking trade with the owners of Rob Gronkowski before Week 2,
but this injury news solidifies him as a top TE option in fantasy,
alongside the likes of Jason Witten and Antonio Gates. After all,
Gronkowski was already the top player at his position through
two weeks. However, the loss of Hernandez may open the door for
a player like Chad Ochocinco, Taylor Price or Julian Edelman to
make a bit of a splash on the fantasy radar. Since Hernandez is
a tight end that essentially masquerades as a slot receiver, it’s
not a stretch to suggest an actual receiver could fill his spot
and put up quality numbers, although I don’t expect any one of
the trio of aforementioned receivers to mirror Hernandez’s production
while he is away.
Many Foster owners have started their season
0-2.
– Owners who followed my advice on Foster as the No.
1 overall player in fantasy drafts likely feel about as good as
I do right now, since he is on my biggest money-league team. Much
like other Foster owners and their teams, my team is 0-2 (although
not even Brady would have helped me win either game, even with
the immortal Ben Tate on my roster). However, we were warned by
some medical experts this was a 3-4 week injury and I know I took
the risk in drafting him with the idea I may not have him until
Week 3. The problem is we don’t know at this point if his hamstring
merely tightened up and that he was simply fatigued in Week 2
(both of which could be expected from a long layoff) or if he
actually re-aggravated the injury. The anger or disappointment
– depending on your read of his body language from the sideline
– suggested to me it was the former and the fact the team even
considered him working out with the team the next day supports
that.
Advice: Thankfully, Foster owners who also stashed Tate have
some clarification on this situation in the short term. HC Gary
Kubiak has announced that Tate will be the lead back “right
now” until Foster is completely healthy, which is about
all owners with both players can ask for at the moment. The owners
I feel sorry for are the Foster owners who didn’t use a
mid-round pick to stash Tate, although I tend to believe Foster
will return to his lead back role in 2-3 weeks at the most –
assuming he didn’t actually reinjure himself in Week 2.
The downside, as is usually the case in fantasy football, is that
we don’t have actual confirmation. The upside is that Houston’s
schedule going forward is hardly imposing, so the fact that Texans
RBs have 78 total touches (including 71 rushes) over the first
two weeks should mean there is more than enough opportunity to
go around for both players if/when both are fully healthy. In
my opinion, Foster is a definite hold and Tate is a short-term
hold that may be a wonderful sell-high player in 1-2 weeks. With
that said, I’ve already laid out the case as to why he’ll
have solid value once Foster does return, so I can definitely
envision a scenario in which Foster returns as a top-five RB and
Tate is a solid flex option. Anyone that came here expecting me
to sour on Foster will have to be disappointed for a few more
weeks. Tate is a very good RB, Foster is a terrific all-around
RB in an offense that has proven to be one of the most fantasy-friendly
systems in league history. With that said, no “system RB”
will account for over 2,200 total yards in a season unless he
is a special talent.
Each year, the question of whether an owner should go WR-heavy
or RB-heavy early in the draft seems to arise. Both approaches
have merit: the former crowd believes that RB is the position
most prone to injury and the elite WRs are the most consistent
players at a highly inconsistent position. The latter group tends
to believe with the number of injuries at the position, it is
vital that owners secure at least three starting-caliber RBs to
protect themselves against the aforementioned injuries and secure
the most consistent players at a position that features a limited
number of consistent performers.
The reason I mention this debate is because I find myself tossing
the question around whenever a number of receivers have huge weeks
(usually against my teams). I also try to find answers as to why
I feel my teams almost always struggle coming out of the gate
but thrive at the end of the season. This year has been no exception,
but it certainly hasn’t helped matters that in my four money
leagues (in which I am a combined 4-4), I have lost to the top
scorer in the league that week three times and the second-highest
scoring team of the week in the other loss.
In analyzing the four losses, here is what I have discovered.
I have been the poor soul that has been forced to face Brady twice
as well as Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers once. The only truly
elite back I have faced in those leagues is Darren McFadden, but
my teams have been absolutely annihilated by opposing receivers
(for example, in my biggest money league, I have already squared
off against Calvin Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Reggie Wayne, Vincent
Jackson, Santana Moss and Wes Welker). As you can likely imagine,
the lowest PPR scorer of the bunch in the week I played against
them had 15.1 fantasy points; most of the other players had well
over 20 fantasy points. It hasn’t helped that basically
half of my regular starting lineup has been sidelined with or
succumbed to injury already, but at least I had the good fortune
of not owning Charles in any league this season.
So, in an effort to find some answers – or maybe just to
make myself feel better – I decided to see how historic
of a start quarterbacks and receivers are off to this season.
Through two weeks, a very impressive 13 quarterbacks have thrown
at least four touchdown passes while 12 are averaging at least
280 passing yards/game. It goes without saying that receivers
are benefitting from this aerial assault as an incredible 47 receivers
have already scored at least one TD and 15 have scored twice or
more.
Thanks to the player
game finder from the good folks at Pro Football Reference,
it appears 99 quarterbacks since 1960 have posted at least 560
yards AND four passing scores through the first two weeks of the
season. While that number sounds high (and thus, not all that
noteworthy), consider that eight of those instances have been
achieved this season. To put that number into some perspective,
I cannot find another season in which more than four QBs were
able to achieve that level of production. Want more perspective?
Only five passers over the last 50-plus years have thrown for
at least 800 yards through two weeks – two of which have come
this season.
At receiver and tight end, the story is much the same: six players
at those positions have posted at least 10 catches, 160 yards
AND two scores in 2011 – the second-highest total in the
league through two weeks since 1960 (there were seven such occurrences
in 2007). Nine WRs are already over 200 yards receiving through
Week 2 and the number is actually 11 if you include Matt Forte
and Witten. The next highest total I could find in Pro Football
Reference’s database through two weeks was five, back in
1984.
To put some of these numbers into fantasy terms, 13 WRs are averaging
20 fantasy points/game in PPR leagues (14 if you round up on A.J.
Green’s 19.7-point/game start), 23 are averaging at least 15 fantasy
points/game (28 if you round up on Brandon
Lloyd, Robert
Meachem, Hakeem
Nicks, Nate
Washington and Nate
Burleson) and 43 are averaging at least 10 points/game (48
if you round up on five more receivers). Compare these numbers
to the previous 11 full seasons and it is easy to see why these
numbers look so otherworldly: no more than four WRs (2005) have
averaged 20 fantasy points/game and no more than 22 WRs (2007)
have averaged more than 15 fantasy points/game for a season.
What does it all mean? Logic and history suggest that defenses
will catch up sooner than later, even in a league that continues
to promote strong quarterback play with its rules changes each
year. And while the trend of pass-happy offenses is here to stay,
most teams simply don’t have the depth, personnel or ideal
setting (cold-weather teams, for example) to remain a pass-heavy
team all season long. Certainly, teams like the Patriots (Brady)
and Packers (Rodgers) are exceptions, but even those teams will
lean on the run a bit more as the weather gets colder.
My experience also suggests that deep fantasy teams that have
strong RB corps tend to win in the end, which is the only thing
to which I can attribute my annual slow start out of the gates.
Certainly, the WR-heavy teams are just as likely to find that
waiver-wire RB gem as the RB-heavy teams are, but the search for
that RB can be a long and frustrating one that could end in Week
2…or it may continue throughout the season, especially if
your team is low on the waiver order or you are constantly spending
big free-agent bidding dollars all season long chasing that week’s
hot new free-agent RB. This differs from the RB-heavy teams, which
often can find a viable plug-and-play receiver on the waiver wire
at several points throughout the season.
The reason I cited my biggest money league team (and its struggles)
is to illustrate that just like many other fantasy owners out
there, weekly consternation is the norm – not the exception
– for just about anyone who enjoys this hobby. University
of Nebraska head football coach Bo Pelini had a quote this week
that I feel is quite applicable to fantasy owners who find themselves
in a situation similar to mine, suggesting, "It's all part
of the process. It's why they put 'coach' in front of our names.
You don't panic. You look at it for what it is and work to get
it fixed."
At least in my team’s case, it doesn’t lack for talent.
And when the competition hits you with the high score in the league
the week it plays your team, you have to understand that sometimes,
that is part of the process.
Much as we did last week, I’d like to end this Blitz with
a short review of the latest round of likely available free agents
in medium-to-deep leagues and their chances at success going forward:
– I’ve said multiple times that Cincinnati has perhaps
the most young talent at the skill positions (in the passing game)
of any team in the league. While I’m not exactly buying Dalton’s
long-term value this season, it’s hard not to like the schedule
he’ll be facing over the next month-plus (vs. SF, vs. BUF, at
JAC, vs. IND, bye and at SEA). Of the bunch, I can only imagine
one game in which Cedric Benson will steal the show, so get used
to a lot of Dalton-to-A.J. Green connections. The second half
of the schedule appears brutal, so it will be a wait-and-see situation
as to whether or not this offense will manufacture enough confidence
by that point to overcome the challenges that lie ahead in November
and December, but for now, Dalton is a quarterback that should
be a good use of a roster spot.
– The veteran made several good decisions in Week 2
and played fairly well considering all the injuries he had at
receiver. His two-week numbers suggest that he is feeling comfortable
under the tutelage of new HC Jim Harbaugh, but we’ve all been
down this road before. While he has given fantasy owners something
to think about with 20-plus yards rushing in each game (along
with one rushing score), he hasn’t been asked to throw the ball
more than 24 times in either game against two teams that have
very beatable secondaries. He may be turned loose at some point
this season in games that figure to be shootouts (Eagles in Week
4, Lions in Week 6 may qualify), but I can’t justify adding a
player like Smith with his track record anytime soon.
– This one is for the owners in the deepest of leagues
that don’t mind taking a risk. In my 12-team leagues that feature
18-player rosters, I am strongly considering adding McClain. The
scoring upside is negligible, but Thomas Jones was already seeing
less action in this offense for a reason and the coaching staff
doesn’t want to put too much work on Dexter McCluster’s plate.
While it is extremely likely HC Todd Haley sticks with a committee
backfield for the duration of the season, one must wonder how
long he’ll be live with Jones’ 3.0 YPC, especially when he doesn’t
contribute much in the passing game anymore either. It’s not so
much that McClain is a great option for desperate owners, it is
more that he is a better actual RB at this stage than Jones is
and able to withstand the pounding that comes along with being
a lead back than McCluster.
– It must be the week for oversized runners (since
I was also considering the Raiders’ Marcel Reese as a back-end-of-the-roster
type in deep leagues). Unlike McClain, Redman will need an injury
to the player in front of him to achieve significant value, but
we discussed the workload Rashard Mendenhall took upon himself
last season (400+ touches including the playoffs), so it is fair
to wonder if HC Mike Tomlin and OC Bruce Arians will consider
backing off their workhorse at some point this season when they
clearly like what they have in Redman. Again, like McClain, it
is highly doubtful that Redman will achieve significant fantasy
value at any point, but last week’s 11 touches should be a clear
indication to the Mendenhall owner in your league that he needs
to be on his/her roster. Perhaps that touch number will go down
as Redman’s season high, but I assure you that if Mendenhall is
hurt for any length of time, the Mendenhall owner will wish he/she
made room for “Red Zone”.
Before I begin discussing receivers, it should be obvious
by looking at the number (and quality) of fantasy players below
why I have long been a RB-heavy fantasy owner. Certainly, nothing
in fantasy – especially a player on the waiver wire –
is guaranteed to succeed, but there are countless numbers of times
during the course of a season in which the number of recommended
pickups at receiver double the number at other positions. What’s
more is that quite often, these receivers already have established
roles in their offenses or are about a week or two away from doing
so.
– Along with Fred Davis, Nelson is one of my must-have
free-agent signings in PPR leagues early this season. Savvy fantasy
owners are always on the lookout for players with opportunity
and it doesn’t get much better than the one Nelson has in Buffalo
right now. With Roscoe Parrish and Marcus Easley already out for
the season and Steve Johnson battling a groin injury that appears
to be getting worse, the 6-5 slot receiver could soon be leading
a group of receivers that are fantasy free agents in all but the
deepest of leagues in an offense that has seen Ryan Fitzpatrick
air it out 71 times already. Nelson is already neck-and-neck with
Johnson in terms of targets, receptions and fantasy production
despite the fact he is technically behind Donald Jones on the
depth chart. With the amount of attention HC Chan Gailey’s gives
the slot receiver in his offense and Nelson’s size (an obvious
help in the red zone), it may only be a matter of time before
the second-year receiver is a WR2 in 12-team PPR leagues.
Will Moore's spectacular catch against
the Bills in Week 2 sway Big Al to do the right thing?
– If I could trust the Raiders to do the right thing
more than half the time, I would have easily placed Moore on each
of my Big Boards. However,
the question in Oakland almost always seems to be whether or not
Al Davis will let his best players play and not be blinded by
what a player’s 40-time is or where he was drafted. For what the
Raiders traditionally like to do – throw the ball deep – it’s
hard to envision a better pair of receivers on their roster than
Moore and Jacoby Ford who can make that philosophy work. Will
Al step aside and let that happen or will he continue to insist
that Darrius Heyward-Bey warrants a starting spot? It’s that risk-reward
conundrum that makes Moore something less than a must-add to fantasy
teams this week and was the same mystery that allowed him to go
undrafted in most fantasy leagues this summer.
– I have already laid out the case for Simpson above
with Dalton, but Simpson’s appeal will only grow the quicker his
QB establishes himself. Whereas Simpson’s Week 1 performance is
probably in line with what owners should expect from him in non-plus
matchups, his Week 2 numbers should remind owners as to what his
potential is given the right situation. It’s pretty clear A.J.
Green is the object of Dalton and OC Jay Gruden’s affection in
the passing game, but there will be defenses (like Cleveland did
for the most part in Week 1) that can take him out of the offense.
Much like Dalton, I suspect Simpson will fall off over the second
half of the schedule, but each of the next five games looks manageable,
starting this week vs. a Niners’ secondary that is not very good.
– While I remain lukewarm about Cam Newton’s fantasy
prospects this season (while admiring his intangibles through
two games), there is no debate that OC Rob Chudzinski and Newton
are huge upgrades over who the team had in those positions last
season. Much like Simpson, LaFell doesn’t strike me as anything
more than a matchup play and I’d hate to sacrifice too much in
order to grab him, but the talent is there. Granted, he is no
better than third in the pecking order in the passing game (behind
Steve Smith and Greg Olsen), but as long as Newton continues to
forget he is supposed to struggle as a rookie passer, a small
chunk of his passing yards are going to go to LaFell. He has a
good shot at producing again this week – against a porous Jaguars
secondary – so medium-to-deeper league owners looking to fill
the void of a player such as Miles Austin could do much worse.
Starting next week, I plan on bringing back the ever-popular
targets and touches section of the Blitz – an analysis that
I know has helped me a great deal in trades and free agent acquisitions
over the years. In addition, I plan on introducing another staple
to this column – something that I believe that will only
contribute to the aggressive nature that I strive for in this
column. Stay tuned…
Suggestions, comments, musings about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared
in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each
of the last two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football
analyst for 106.7 The Fan in Washington, D.C. this past season.
He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
You can also follow him
on Twitter.
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