Conference Championships
1/20/11
Whether you are still basking in the success you enjoyed in
cruising to your fantasy league's title, still smarting over your
teams' inability to close the deal in your fantasy postseason
or just aren't ready to hang up your owner's hat quite yet, playoff
fantasy football may be just the thing you need to end this season
right.
I'll be the first to admit that playoff fantasy football doesn't
appeal to me quite as much as the usual 16-week marathon, but
that doesn't mean I don't still enjoy it. And coming off my most
profitable fantasy season yet, I'm looking to make a great season
even better. For better or for worse, I want to share my experience
with you (no matter which category mentioned in the first paragraph
you may fall under) in hopes that some of you can end this season
on a definite high note.
After getting my first taste of owning multiple teams in playoff
leagues last year (and making a bit of money from it, I’m
expanding my horizons this time around. In addition to owning
one NFL.com team, I will be taking part in several money leagues
with Fuzzy's Fantasy Football. My goal over the next four weeks
will be to help each of you through your decision-making process
as you attempt to boost your bottom line.
NFL.com
For a complete rundown of how players will score fantasy points
for your team, click
on this link. However, much of the content immediately below
is included on the “How to Play” page, so what I provide
here should be more than enough to follow along easily.
The object of the game is to pick the players you think will
perform best in their playoff matchup. Select one QB, two RBs,
two WRs, one TE, one K and one D/ST. You will earn fantasy points
based on their on-field performance during their game, and if
your player's team wins, you will have the option to carry that
player over to the next round, where he will earn a bonus point
modifier to his score.
For example, if you pick Drew Brees in the Wild Card round
and the Saints win, you can carry him over to the Divisional Round,
and earn two times (2x) the points he earns in his divisional
round game. If New Orleans wins again, you can carry Brees into
the Conference Championships for 3x his points, and if the Saints
win again, you can carry him into the Super Bowl and earn 4x his
points. In addition, a user can select a player in the Wild Card
round even if their team has a bye into the Divisional Round.
In this case, the user would not earn any points for the Wild
Card round, but would then be eligible to earn 2x points in the
Divisional round, since the player was on the team’s roster
for 2 weekly scoring periods. Further bonus point modifiers would
also apply as long as that player’s team continued in the
NFL Playoffs.
NFL.com Scoring System |
Offense Statistic (QB, RB, WR, TE, K) |
Fantasy Points |
Rushing or Receiving Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Passing Touchdown: |
4 fantasy points |
Field Goal: |
3 fantasy points |
Passing, Rushing or Receiving Two-Point
Conversion: |
2 fantasy points |
Rushing or Receiving: |
1 fantasy point per 10 yards |
Passing: |
1 fantasy point per 25 yards |
Extra Point: |
1 fantasy point |
Defense/Special Teams (D/ST) |
|
Punt Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Kickoff Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Fumble Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Interception Returned Touchdown: |
6 fantasy points |
Allowing 0 Points: |
10 fantasy points |
Allowing 2-6 Points: |
7 fantasy points |
Allowing 7-13 Points: |
4 fantasy points |
Allowing 14-17 Points: |
1 fantasy points |
Allowing 18-21 Points: |
0 fantasy points |
Allowing 22-27 Points: |
-1 fantasy points |
Allowing 28-34 Points: |
-4 fantasy points |
Allowing 35-45 Points: |
-7 fantasy points |
Allowing 46+ Points: |
-10 fantasy points |
Team Win: |
5 fantasy points |
Interception: |
2 fantasy points |
Fumble Recovery: |
2 fantasy points |
Blocked Punt: |
2 fantasy points |
Blocked Field Goal or Blocked Extra
Point: |
2 fantasy points |
Safety: |
2 fantasy points |
Sack: |
1 fantasy points |
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Before we get into the picks, let’s briefly review the
rules and how we may use them to our advantage: 1) passing TDs
are four points, so passing yards are valued more highly here
than in the Fuzzy’s leagues I’ll talk about later;
2) all field goals are worth three points, which means we are
more concerned about volume of field goals than distance; 3) this
is non-PPR scoring, which obviously favors the big-play threats;
and 4) team wins are worth five points, so picking a “winning”
defense is worth almost a touchdown and could be worth as much
as 3.5 TDs if you pick a defense from this week and that team
ends up winning the Super Bowl.
Before we get into the breakdown this week, most of last week’s
team went down in flames when New England morphed into the same
team that looked as helpless as it did against Cleveland in Week
9. Certainly, credit must be given to the Jets’ defense
for their contributions, but a number of mind-boggling decisions
by the Patriots sealed their fate (as well as mine).
Here are the most worthy candidates by position:
QBs
Ben Roethlisberger/Jay Cutler/Aaron Rodgers/Mark Sanchez
RBs
Rashard Mendenhall/Matt Forte/LaDainian Tomlinson/Shonn Greene/Brandon
Jackson/James Starks
WRs
Mike Wallace/ Hines Ward/Emmanuel Sanders/Johnny Knox/Earl Bennett/Devin
Hester/Greg Jennings/Santonio Holmes/Braylon Edwards/James Jones/Donald
Driver/Jordy Nelson
TEs
Greg Olsen/Heath Miller/Dustin Keller
Ks
Shaun Suisham/Robbie Gould/Nick Folk/Mason Crosby
D/ST
Steelers/Bears/Packers/Jets
Let’s get to my picks and my rationale for each position:
QB: Rodgers (x3). Anyone watching
the NFL playoffs would be hard-pressed to find a player playing
his position better than Rodgers is right now (Green Bay CB Tramon
Williams might be a close second, however). So, in short,
there is no reason to move away from the QB who all the “experts”
will say next year has emerged as the next elite QB – something
fantasy owners have known for a while – and select another signal-caller
this week. The Bears present one of the toughest matchups for
Rodgers and the Packers’ offense because they can get pressure
with just four rushers and play seven in coverage to discourage
big plays. But let’s face facts – Rodgers has completed 67% of
his passes in all but one game since Week 8, going over 70% in
five of those contests. I wouldn’t expect another banner passing
day yardage-wise from Rodgers, but it seems almost certain he’ll
account for at least two scores and post 225-250 yards passing.
And much like the Falcons’ game, I don’t expect Green Bay to enjoy
much success running the ball, meaning the success of the entire
offense will once again fall on the shoulders of Rodgers.
Big Ben: A viable option.
In my mind, Roethlisberger is the only other realistic option
for owners this week. I expect the Steelers will attempt to exploit
the Jets in an area the Patriots curiously did not - the deep
passing game. However, it seems as if New York has shored up the
vacancy at safety that was left following Jim Leonhard’s
season-ending injury just before the Jets’ crushing loss
to the Pats back in Week 13, so I’m not sure fantasy owners
will see a huge game from Mike Wallace, although rookie deep threat
Emmanuel Sanders could pick up the slack in that regard. Still,
Jets-Steelers figures to be a low-scoring field goal battle, so
I’ll pass. Sanchez played much better against the Patriots
than he did vs. the Colts, but I’m going to need to see
a lot more consistency over the long term before I can ever count
on the Jets’ QB to guide any one of my fantasy teams. Cutler’s
two rushing TDs notwithstanding last week, the Bears’ signal-caller
did last week what he is capable of doing a regular basis –
taking advantage of a plus matchup – something Green Bay
is not. I’ll be stunned if Chicago does not have a highly
conservative offensive gameplan this Sunday, meaning Cutler’s
ceiling may be in the 200-yard, one-TD neighborhood.
RB: Mendenhall and Forte (2x).
In just about any industry, it seems there is usually at least
one instance where the numbers defy logic. Worker X shows up late,
takes long breaks and/or punches out before the rest of his crew
does. Yet somehow, the numbers show he basically did the same
job or produced at the same level as his peers at the end of the
day. While no one questions his work ethic or dedication to his
craft anymore, logic doesn’t explain the fantasy production of
Mendenhall, whose numbers have frequently been well below average
this year. Yet, just about every time his fantasy owners check
out his fantasy totals, they come away happy. Mendenhall has eclipsed
4.0 YPC in a game only seven times this season and has recorded
3.2 YPC or less eight times, but the Steelers’ willingness to
keep running him behind an offensive line devastated by injuries
and use him as the goal-line back has led to an incredibly productive
season for his owners. As luck would have it, Mendenhall enjoyed
one of his best rushing performances this year against this week’s
opponent, the Jets. In that Week 15 contest, Mendenhall operated
at a 5.9 YPC clip and turned in the final of his four 100-yard
days in 2010. While it may be foolish to expect a similar performance
this week, the Steelers are my pick to represent the AFC in the
Super Bowl, meaning I would hope to get a 2x out of him in a couple
of weeks.
For any owner who elected to roll with Forte last week, I feel
for you. It saddens me when I see a great matchup go by the wayside
due to the ineptitude of a supporting cast – in this case,
by his offensive line at the goal line. More than any team I can
recall in recent memory, the Bears are consistently blown off
the football in short-yardage and goal-line situations, both of
which makes a patient runner like Forte look bad in those situations.
Forte could have easily scored at least once – vultured
by Chester Taylor after consecutive line collapses inside the
3-yard line – to score one TD was high, but the potential
for a three-score day was there, including another play later
in the game where the defender stayed with Forte on a rollout
shovel pass play instead of chasing after Cutler, resulting in
an easy scoring stroll for the QB. Brushing that disappointment
to the side, Forte has evolved into an all-purpose threat once
again since the Bears underwent their philosophy change on offense
around midseason. Starting with Week 11, Forte has accounted for
at 98 total yards in a game all but one time. Touchdowns have
remained elusive for the RB (for the reasons mentioned above among
others), but owners will be hard-pressed to find another RB remaining
in the postseason who can offer that kind of production.
Briefly, let’s touch on the remaining RBs. Any RB against
the Steelers’ incredible run defense is a poor bet, so Tomlinson
and Greene are extremely risky this week. As for the Green Bay
RBs, it wouldn’t surprise me if Jackson and John Kuhn were
more productive this week than James Starks – the likelihood
Rodgers will be checking down to his RBs often is fairly high.
Plus, Packers’ RBs accounted for 13 and 16 carries in the
two previous games against the Bears earlier this season. As a
result, don’t expect 20 combined carries this week from
the trio this week, unless the Packers’ jump out to a huge
early lead.
WR: Jennings (3x) and Wallace.
Just like every other position in this fantasy contest, the goal
is to land as many potential 3x and 4x players as possible. For
Jennings, his two-game postseason totals are a bit low, but much
of that disappointment came from the Wildcard Round win over Philadelphia
when the Eagles admitted after the game their main focus on defense
was to shut down the Packers’ top wideout. Atlanta did not execute
a similar strategy and Jennings stepped up with his fifth 100-yard
receiving game since Week 11. It’s hard to believe a WR of Jennings’
caliber (who scored 12 times this season) could get shut out of
the end zone in four straight games, but that is the reality of
the situation at the moment. However, it is difficult to go against
Jennings at this point given his 3x status in my lineup; it only
helps that he has enjoyed a fair amount of success in his career
vs. the Bears.
For my other WR slot, it basically comes down to Wallace, Holmes
and Jones. Aside from one terrible drop against the Eagles two
weeks ago, Jones has enjoyed a standout postseason with TDs in
each of the Packers’ two games so far. It’s notable
that Jones has scored in consecutive games four times over his
career – including three coming this season – but
has never scored in three straight contests and he has yet to
score in eight career games against Chicago. Add that to possible
Super Bowl matchups vs. the Jets or the Steelers and I’m
not sure I feel great about trusting him the rest of the way.
I could easily see Holmes enjoying a fair amount of success in
his second start against his former team, but I don’t see
the Jets winning for a second time in Pittsburgh this season,
meaning neither Holmes nor Edwards is worth a start here. This
brings me to Wallace, who last week posted his worst fantasy game
since Week 4, the last game the Steelers someone besides Roethlisberger
at QB. I don’t anticipate another 100-yard game from Wallace
this week against the Jets (as he did against New York in Week
15), but his ability to hit at least one big play each game makes
him worth the gamble this week in hopes he can pay off twice as
much for me in the Super Bowl as I have my doubts as to whether
or not Chicago or Green Bay can handle him.
TE: Miller. We are down to four
teams, meaning the already shallow TE pool is almost dry at this
point. In fact, I’ve had more than one thought about starting
Andrew
Quarless because I figure at least one Green Bay TE will exploit
the Bears’ Cover 2 defense this week. However, I want a team full
of players who I think have a shot will play two games and, just
as importantly, be moderately productive in both. If I had to
choose a one-week TE option, it would probably be Olsen as Green
Bay has surrendered double-digit non-PPR fantasy point totals
to opposing TEs on four occasions this season, including Olsen
in the teams’ first meeting. But I don’t expect Chicago to win
this week, meaning I am compelled to go with the lesser of two
evils: a Green Bay TE or a Pittsburgh TE. We’ve already briefly
discussed the options the Packers offer, so Miller it is.
Fortunately, there is some reason to believe this selection could
pay off this week and next. With Ward and Wallace likely to have
their hands full with Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, we
should expect to see a lot of the rookie Sanders (mentioned above)
and Miller as Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore do not figure to see
a great deal of action in the passing game. Assuming the Steelers
can edge past the Jets as I believe they will, Miller will face
an opponent in the Packers or Bears who were hurt by opposing
TEs as the season wore on. None of the available options can be
considered high-upside options, but Miller has actually enjoyed
a small measure of success over Pittsburgh’s last three
games since returning from the concussion he suffered in Week
13.
K: Suisham. If you check out the
NFL.com leaderboard, it is apparent that I wasn’t the only one
that had some confidence Green Bay would enjoy some postseason
success. I must admit, however, I still consider the leaders’
selection of Crosby to be a bit of a head-scratcher considering
the single-digit fantasy-point run he was on prior to last week.
Foolish or not, however, their trust in the Green Bay kicker was
rewarded in a big way vs. Atlanta and will likely keep being rewarded
with 3x and 4x totals over the next two games. My opinion hasn’t
changed since last week when I suggested that Suisham was potentially
the best two-game kicking option, so with New England out of the
way (because the Pats are a terrible matchup for the Steelers),
it is time to hop on his bandwagon. It would come as little surprise
to me if Jets-Steelers turned into a 9-6 or 19-16 game where no
more than three TDs are scored. Because I believe Pittsburgh will
advance and I don’t trust Folk much anymore, Suisham is the call.
I feel as if my only real other option is Crosby, but with the
Green Bay offense operating so efficiently, I’m not ready
to endorse the Packers’ kicker here. You may remember Crosby
only received his FG attempts after Green Bay basically shut it
down on offense in the fourth quarter last week. While I recognize
the same thing could happen this week, divisional foes –
especially those that take any pride in their defense –
usually churn out low-scoring games. And since I think Chicago’s
defense will perform in much the same way it has in two previous
meetings vs. Green Bay, in which Crosby converted one FG in each
contests, I’m inclined to believe another 17-14 kind of
game will be what decides who represents the NFC in the Super
Bowl.
DST: Packers. Would you believe
that I am 6-2 so far in predicting the outcomes of playoff games?
Naturally, the two I have missed just happen to be the same teams
I predicted to take advantage of the “team win” aspect of this
competition – the Saints and the Patriots. Much like the Crosby
selection I discussed above by the NFL.com leaderboard, the Packers’
defense was a questionable bet as they had to overcome a potentially
high-scoring game vs. the Eagles in the first round and a conservative
Falcons’ offense in the second round that had not shown the same
carelessness with the ball all season that it showed against Green
Bay last week.
Because I now expect a Super Bowl showdown between the two most
of the most heralded 3-4 defensive coordinators in the game today
(Steelers DC Dick LeBeau and Packers DC Dom Capers), my selection
is based on: 1) the team I think will win it all and 2) the defense/special
teams that has the best chance to create “explosive”
plays in both games. In both cases, Green Bay is my answer, so
that defense/special teams unit is the selection here.
Fearless predictions for my selected team:
Rodgers: 275 passing yards, two passing TDs, 30 yards rushing
(22 fantasy points x 3)
Mendenhall: 65 rushing yards, one rushing TD, 10 receiving yards
(13 points)
Forte: 80 rushing yards, 30 receiving yards (11 points x 2)
Jennings: 100 receiving yards, one receiving TD (16 points x 3)
Wallace: 70 receiving yards (7 points)
Miller: 40 receiving yards, one receiving TD (10 points)
Suisham: one extra point, three field goals (10 points)
Packers DST: 10 PA, three sacks, two INTs and a team win (16 points)
Projected Total: 188 fantasy points (includes 89 points via
bonus point modifiers for Rodgers, Jennings and Forte)
Fuzzy’s
Most of the scoring parameters used above apply here as well.
The key differences are as follows: no bonus point modifiers (including
team win points although more fantasy points are awarded to kickers
who kick long field goals) and PPR scoring where all TDs are worth
six points. In short, your goal is to pick the highest-scoring
lineup each week with no strings attached. Additionally, each
owner is asked to select a tiebreaker each week which will be
used to break any ties following the Super Bowl. Fuzzy's leagues
contain no more than 50 teams whereas most other major sites employ
a one-man-against-the-world approach. As a result, 20% of the
entrants into Fuzzy's playoff leagues will - at the very least
- recoup their entry fee, with first through ninth place receiving
a nice return on investment for their troubles. Follow
this link for a complete list of the rules.
Position Requirements: 1 QB, 2
RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Defense/Special Teams
Since I will be running several teams with Fuzzy’s this
season, I’ll simply list my teams below and present a brief
overview on my overall thought process. Depending on how strongly
I feel about matchups in a given week, I may use the same lineup
in more than one league, but in general, I believe in “diversifying
my portfolio” in the postseason as well.
Fuzzy Portfolio -
Divisional Round |
|
Team 1 |
Team 2 |
Team 3 |
Team 4 |
Team 5 |
QB |
Rodgers |
Rodgers |
Brady |
Rodgers |
Brady |
RB |
Forte |
Forte |
Forte |
Forte |
Forte |
RB |
Turner |
Green-Ellis |
Turner |
Green-Ellis |
Green-Ellis |
WR |
Jennings |
Wallace |
Jennings |
Jennings |
Knox |
WR |
Knox |
Welker |
Wallace |
Knox |
Wallace |
WR |
Wallace |
White |
White |
Welker |
Welker |
TE |
Hernandez |
Gronkowski |
Hernandez |
Gronkowski |
Gronkowski |
K |
Gould |
Graham |
Gould |
Gould |
Graham |
DST |
Bears |
Bears |
Patriots |
Bears |
Bears |
Tie |
Brady |
Brady |
Rodgers |
Brady |
Rodgers |
WC Pt Tot |
85.2 |
135.8 |
102.3 |
80.4 |
94.0 |
DR Pt Tot |
102.3 |
116.4 |
91.5 |
116.8 |
89.8 |
|
Judging by the totals, it’s probably not surprising that
I have only one team in great shape to finish in the money. The
problem I have with this reality is that I am a couple of DST
choices away from having multiple teams in the running for some
extra cash. For instance, how did the Bears allow 21 fourth-quarter
points to an offense they were shutting out through the better
part of 45 minutes? Had Chicago’s defense just kept doing
what it had been doing through three quarters, Team 2 would be
within a few points of the overall lead while Teams 1 and 3 would
be making legitimate cases to finish in the money as well. With
that said, let’s look at the picks for this weekend:
Fuzzy Portfolio -
Conference Championships |
|
Team 1 |
Team 2 |
Team 3 |
Team 4 |
Team 5 |
QB |
Rodgers |
Rodgers |
Rodgers |
Rodgers |
Rodgers |
RB |
Forte |
Forte |
Forte |
Forte |
Forte |
RB |
Mendenhall |
Mendenhall |
Mendenhall |
Mendenhall |
Mendenhall |
WR |
Holmes |
Holmes |
Holmes |
Holmes |
Holmes |
WR |
Jennings |
Jennings |
Jennings |
Jennings |
Jennings |
WR |
Sanders |
Edwards |
Edwards |
Edwards |
Nelson |
TE |
Olsen |
Miller |
Miller |
Miller |
Olsen |
K |
Crosby |
Suisham |
Suisham |
Suisham |
Suisham |
DST |
Packers |
Packers |
Steelers |
Packers |
Steelers |
Tie |
Roethlisberger |
Roethlisberger |
Roethlisberger |
Roethlisberger |
Roethlisberger |
|
At QB, it is a clean sweep of Rodgers with no reason to really
even consider any other option for the reasons given in the NFL.com
section above. This could be the first week that I consider a
non-QB for the tiebreaker position, but I’m not particularly
thrilled with any of the RB, WR or TE candidates I would have
available to me (outside of the ones I’ll be starting),
so Roethlisberger will probably be my tiebreaker in all five Fuzzy’s
leagues. I fully expect just about every owner will enter the
same QB and tiebreaker choices as I will this weekend.
I must admit I’ve been surprised by one of the leader’s
decisions to use Tomlinson over the past couple of weeks. Obviously,
it has paid off nicely up to this point, but further usage of
LT this week against the Steelers would be a foolish move for
him or any other owner serious about winning some money this postseason.
To me, the choices are clear this week: Forte and Mendenhall.
Why? Because I don’t want any RB going against the Steelers’
run defense nor do I want a RB in a three-headed attack playing
for a pass-oriented offense starting for my teams. Since I discussed
Forte and Mendenhall’s merits in detail earlier and expect
most of the other owners to reach the same conclusion, I’ll
move on to the positions I feel offer some room for disagreement
and potential to close the small gap between my teams and the
leaders.
Unlike my reasoning in the NFL.com section above, I do not feel
compelled to use Wallace this week in Fuzzy’s. For all those
observers who did not pay close attention to Jets-Steelers the
first time around, Darrelle Revis spent most of his day shutting
down Ward in Week 15 while Antonio Cromartie was assigned to Wallace.
The results? Ward had two catches for 34 yards while Wallace posted
a 7-102-0 line. Expect the Jets to reverse the matchups this time
around and force Emmanuel Sanders to win his matchup, something
he has shown he can do late in the season, which is exactly why
he’ll be in at least one of my lineups. I don’t really
trust Edwards a great deal, but if Holmes draws Ike Taylor in
coverage (which is very likely), Mark Sanchez would be wise to
throw more often in the other direction. And because Pittsburgh
is so good against the run, it is actually a good idea to load
up on Jets’ WRs this week.
At TE, I’ll use Olsen in a league or two because he has
the better matchup based on the Bears’ previous matchups
against the Packers, but for many of the same reasons I cited
above, I tend to believe Miller is the best choice. I very much
believe Sanders and Miller have to be key players this weekend
for Pittsburgh to advance. Suisham will be the choice at kicker
simply because I expect him to kick more FGs than anyone else
available, though I’ll probably hedge my bet by using Crosby
in a league or two.
There is a strong case that could be made for picking any of
the four remaining defenses this week. In the end, however, I
trust Cutler and Sanchez the least, meaning the opponents of the
Bears and Jets should enjoy the better fantasy days. There have
already been a number of stories this week citing how poor of
a playing surface Soldier Field will be this week, with the implication
being that Chicago is doing what it can to neutralize the pass-rushing
abilities of Green Bay, particularly Clay Matthews. But with its
potent offense, Green Bay stands a better chance of jumping out
to an early advantage, thereby forcing the Bears to rally. If
that scenario plays out, expect another banner day for the Packers’
defense. They’ll get the nod over the Steelers’ defense
right now because I expect the AFC title game will remain close
throughout, meaning neither team will likely need to deviate from
a conservative offensive attack, which doesn’t favor fantasy
owners looking for sacks and/or turnovers. It should be noted,
however, that my selections of team defense this week are the
most likely to change between now and Sunday.
Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football
in general? e-mail me.
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