QBs: (1 pt per 25 yds passing; 6 pts for all TDs, -2 pts/INT)
WRs/TEs: (1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, 6 points per TD)

Note: Teams that have a fantasy relevant TE will be included. Otherwise, the numbers will reflect WR performance.

Passing

Marc Bulger/Torry Holt/Isaac Bruce (vs. ARI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cardinals this season: Rams
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 26.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs over the last 3 weeks: 21/28.1

Notes: This team has made the transition from aerial circus to more of a smashmouth team quicker than any team in recent memory. Some of this has been done out of necessity (offensive line injuries) have exposed pass protection weaknesses, which explains to some degree why Steven Jackson has a mind-blowing 35 receptions over the past four weeks while Bruce and Holt have combined for 38 over that same period of time. This game will certainly be a test for Holt and Bulger owners who are getting fed up with their lack of “connectivity”. If those two can’t have a standout fantasy game in this one, life does not look good for their owners for the rest of the season. Why is there hope? Because the Cardinals are without DE Bert Berry, which may allow the passing game the extra second or two they need to connect down the field. Look for a concerted effort from the Rams this week to find Holt in the end zone. Bulger won’t likely have a huge game, but 225 yards with the aforementioned Holt TD should be a realistic expectation.

Jason Campbell/Santana Moss/Brandon Lloyd/Chris Cooley (vs. ATL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Falcons this season: Browns, Ravens
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 10.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 11.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 9.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 15.5/20.7/7.3

Notes: Campbell has barely eclipsed 300 passing yards combined in his two starts, but has thrown for four scores. Since three of those came inside the 5-yard line, it is safe to assume that the Redskins trust their young QB to throw it in from close range. (Translation: They like Betts to get them into the red zone, but they’re not high on the idea of either Doug Duckett or Betts taking it the rest of the way.) While fantasy owners should expect Campbell and Moss to continue working on their timing, the only SAFE play in the passing game right now is Cooley, as he has scored in five of his last 6 games.

Philip Rivers/SD receivers/Antonio Gates (vs. BUF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bills this season: Patriots (2)
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 17.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 17.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 15.1/12.7/6.5

Notes: Believe it or not, during this historic run that LaDainian Tomlinson is on, Rivers has been pretty solid on the road, as he has thrown for at least 222 yards and 2 or more TDs in each of the past four games away from home. Combine that with the fact that the Bills have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing RBs and if both trends continue, there is potential for the Chargers to push 40 points this week. It’s hard to see Rivers passing for much more than 200 yards if things play out right, but he should find Gates for about 60-70 yards. A score is questionable as the Bills have only allowed two scores to opposing TEs through Week 12. Also, expect Rivers to be efficient with his throws, as the Bills have allowed opposing passers to complete 70% of their passes over the past five weeks. And if you may be wondering why the Chargers’ WRs are not mentioned by name, it is because not one San Diego WR has been targeted more than 8 times in any one game this season!!!

Jeff Garcia/Donte Stallworth/Reggie Brown/LJ Smith (vs. CAR)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Panthers this season: Cowboys, Redskins
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 12.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 15.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 9.4/11.4/6.2

Notes: If this whole “similar” business means anything, LJ Smith appears to be a very good play this week. There is some rationale for this, however. With Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker caving in the outside on the pass rush, it generally forces the QB to step up, scramble, and find his TE. And given the Panthers have allowed 6 TE scores, this “theory” would stand to reason. And while the Eagles’ WRs have not totally lost their value, the fact that Garcia did not target any of his wideouts more than 3 times in the Colts game last week even though they were behind throughout does not bode well for their future success, either. The Eagles will ride Westbrook as long as they can for as long as he can stay healthy. Garcia is an average play at best.

Brad Johnson/ MIN receivers (vs. CHI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bears this season: Vikings
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 5.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 12.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs over the last 3 weeks: 5.1/9.6

Notes: Were you looking for a tangible reason why not to play any Vikings WR? Before last week’s 11-target performance by Marcus Robinson vs. the Cardinals, not one single Minnesota WR had been targeted any more than 9 times in a single game. And while Johnson may make for a decent fill-in play over the next 3 weeks, there’s no need to push your luck and try to make it four by playing him against the Bears this week. The Bears have intercepted two passes in each of the last four games and only three QBs have even surpassed the 200 yard mark against this defense. Once again, Chester Taylor is the only offensive Viking player worth playing this week.

Trent Green/Eddie Kennison/Samie Parker/Tony Gonzalez (vs. CLE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Browns this season: Ravens, Steelers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 17.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 23.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 6.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 20.8/29.2/3.6

Notes: Take Carson Palmer out of the equation and the Browns have only allowed 8 passing scores all season. This defense has actually fared well against the pass in just about ever other game this season. Unfortunately for them this weekend, the Chiefs don’t figure to utilize the passing game all that much. The Chiefs have very much become a smashmouth offense this season, determined to wear defenses out by giving LJ the ball in upwards of 30 times a game. So despite the gaudy yardage numbers opposing WRs have put on the Browns defense over the course of the season, it is hard to recommend either Kennison or Parker. If I had to pick one, I would suggest Kennison, as he could be primed for a long score off play action. And because the run defense has been so poor, don’t look for a great deal of Gonzo either. Look for LJ all day with one passing score from Green.

Eli Manning/Plaxico Burress/Tim Carter/Jeremy Shockey (vs. DAL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Cowboys this season: Cowboys
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 17.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 19.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 8.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 10.6/16.5/4

Notes: The last time these teams met, the Giants came in primed to run away with the division. That was Week 7. Now, in Week 13, the Giants need to win to keep up with what has become one of the league’s hottest teams. Since that initial meeting, Eli can’t seem to make a good decision in a crucial situation, Burress is not giving anything close to 100% effort, and Shockey still remains invisible from the game plan too much in the first half of games. (One also has to wonder if the injuries of LT Luke Petitgout and WR Amani Toomer have completely sapped the remaining trust Manning had in his personnel. Since Toomer’s injury, they are 0-2.) All told, this passing offense is quickly becoming one of major concern for fantasy owners. That said, Burress is being targeted often and has scored in four of his last five. Shockey is being targeted somewhat regularly, so he still remains a fair play. However, Manning has not had a decent fantasy performance in five weeks and he has only topped 200 yards passing once since Week 5, throwing 2 picks in four of those games. As a result, he should find your bench until the passing game starts showing signs of life. That may happen in Weeks 15 and 16, but the Dallas defense is playing too well right now to expect it to happen this weekend.

Matt Hasselbeck/Darrell Jackson/Deion Branch (vs. DEN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Broncos this season: Rams
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 8.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 14.4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs over the last 3 weeks: 9/10.8

Notes: Fortunately for his owners last Monday night, it took only one half and the let-up of snowfall at Qwest Field for Hasselbeck to start looking like a Pro Bowl QB again. Only five of the 11 starting QBs to face the Broncos defense have hit double digit fantasy points and, as one would expect with Champ Bailey in town, when they have had success, it has been in large part because the #2 WR stepped up. So while Hasselbeck doesn’t make a bad play this weekend, he doesn’t make a great one either. He should find a way to top 200 yards and one score, with that score going to either DJ Hackett or Branch. Leave Jerramy Stevens on your bench, as the Broncos have not allowed a TE score all season.

Tom Brady/Reche Caldwell/Troy Brown/Ben Watson (vs. DET)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Lions this season: Bears, Dolphins
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 30.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 26.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 17.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 17/21/3.6

Notes: The Lions defense has been equal opportunity, especially lately. If opponents want to run, they’ll let you do that well. If opponents want to pass, they’ll let them do that well, too. If opponents want a balanced attack…well, you get the picture. While Brady could make the Lions the 3rd NFC North team he has carved up for 4 TDs passes, expect more balance, as in 250 yards and 2-3 scores. Each notable TE that has faced the Lions defense has done well, so Watson makes a great play. Caldwell has been the Pats’ best fantasy WR in three straight and four of his last five, so feel free to start him as a low-end #2 or high-end #3 WR. Every other receiver is a dicey play at best, although I get the sense that Chad Jackson or Troy Brown will find his way into the end zone at some point.

Chad Pennington/Laveranues Coles/Jerricho Cotchery (vs. GB)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Packers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs over the last 3 weeks: 20.6/22.3

Notes: Pennington posted his best fantasy numbers since Week 6, but was still only moderately effective (fantasy-wise) vs. a porous Texans defense. And even though the Packers secondary has been beaten for 7 scores over the past two games, don’t look for Pennington to post huge numbers in this one. He hasn’t registered a two-TD game since Week 6. As far as the WRs go, don’t look for Coles to have all that great of a game, as CB Al Harris has held up pretty well this year. This means that Cotchery stands to be the man that Pennington will find for his one scoring pass. Look for the Jets to attempt to stick with their struggling ground game longer than usual in this one.

Aaron Brooks/Randy Moss/Ronald Curry (vs. HOU)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Texans this season: Jags (with Garrard), Bills
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 27
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs over the last 3 weeks: 17.9/28

Notes: This matchup defies logic. The Raiders have switched from much-maligned OC Tom Walsh to much-maligned ex-Bear OC John Shoop. Here’s to hoping Shoop learned something in his first tour of duty, as Shoop’s offenses in Chicago were ultra-conservative, which means they are the worst possible fit for the Raiders, who have the personnel to go deep. (Perhaps the Raiders will go deep on the first play of the game to Moss just to get the fans on their feet…) Maybe the Raiders switch things up and work the deep ball in this one, but with fantasy playoff implications on the line for most owners, Moss is a high-risk starter. If the Raiders stick to the short passing game, Curry stands to benefit the most, as he and Alvis Whitted are just about the only receivers the Raiders have that will go over the middle in the short passing game. So while the matchup screams “Play Moss”, Shoop’s past should make you want to look the other way.

Vince Young/Drew Bennett/Brandon Jones/Bo Scaife (vs. IND)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Colts this season: Titans
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 10.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 4
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs over the last 3 weeks: 7.9/12

Notes: We are going to include Young’s former college teammate this week (Scaife) as he should figure prominently into the game plan, behind the running game. When these two teams met in Week 5, Young was only making his second career start. In winning his last two (and four of his last six), Young seems to be maturing as a NFL signal-caller much faster than anyone would have anticipated. He will regress at some point this year, but it is good to see him having some success this early. In the first meeting against the Colts, Jones was the only WR to catch a pass. In fact, six of Young’s 10 completions went to running backs. Expect similar results this time around as the game plan will feature a lot of Travis Henry mixed in with about 40-50 yards rushing from Young. If the Titans are to score through the air, it will likely end up in the hands of Scaife. I wouldn’t go out of my way to start any Titans WR/TE, but Scaife makes the most sense if you want to go that route.

Joey Harrington/Chris Chambers/Marty Booker/Randy McMichael (vs. JAX)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jags this season: Jets, Giants
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 4.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 13.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 4.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 9.1/11.4/5.4

Notes: All fantasy owners really need to know is whether this game is a home or road game for the Jags-this one is on the road. This defense is Jykell on the road and Hyde at home. The pass defense (statistically speaking) seems to travel well, but the run defense does not. What has been consistent is the lack of production from Chambers. It is quite frustrating to see someone with so much talent not being given the chance to succeed. (Stat of the year: Chambers is one of 10 WRs in the league that has been targeted 100+ times. He is the only one with fewer than 60 catches-he has 44.) Things don’t look to change this week with the highly regarded CB Rashean Mathis covering him. Also, Harrington figures to struggle as well as the Jags have not allowed a decent fantasy performance to a QB since Week 8-home or road. Also, don’t expect great numbers from Booker, either, but he will likely fare better than Chambers. If there is one player in the Dolphins’ passing game to have some hope for this week, it may be McMichael. Owen Daniels and Jeremy Shockey have fared decently in the past few weeks against this defense.

Charlie Frye/Braylon Edwards/Joe Jurevicius/Kellen Winslow (vs. KC)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chiefs this season: Steelers, Dolphins
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 15.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 24.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 3.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 12.5/13.7/8.9

Notes: Oh, to be a Browns fan…Frye has not a great fantasy performance since Week 4 and given the Chiefs’ recent numbers against opposing QBs, it doesn’t figure to happen here. This means you can probably temper expectations on Edwards and Jurevicius as well. Only one TE (Antonio Gates) had a double-digit fantasy game against the Chiefs, but there is hope for Winslow owners. The Chiefs have allowed 5 TE scores this season and allowed two average fantasy TEs (Courtney Anderson, Stephen Alexander) to put up acceptable 7-point performances. If the passing game produces a score this week, it may be very well go to Winslow.

David Garrard/Ernest Wilford/Matt Jones/Reggie Williams (vs. MIA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Dolphins this season: Texans
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 26.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs over the last 3 weeks: 10.2/15.4

Notes: There was the first-half Dolphins and then there is the second-half Dolphins. In the first half, they could not stop the pass. Since their conveniently-placed bye week, the Dolphins have only allowed one WR to score. It’s hard to say if that changes this week, but bigger WRs have fared pretty well for most of the season against this defense. Since it appears Garrard trusts Wilford the most, he is the man to select from this passing game, even though Jones did grab a TD and there was a Reggie Williams sighting last week. However, because the Dolphins pass rush has picked up lately, Garrard should be good for some rushing yards in this game. As a result, don’t be surprised if Garrard utilizes Wilford and TE George Wrighster more in this game.

Rex Grossman/Muhsin Muhammad/Mark Bradley/Desmond Clark (vs. MIN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Vikings this season: Bears
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 12.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 29.6
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 3.1
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 19.2/31/5.5

Notes: This Vikings defense has faced 135 passing attempts over the past three weeks, while facing only 41 rushing attempts. These kinds of numbers would be understandable for a team that has a great offense and makes teams play from behind right away, but that does not describe the 2006 Vikings. The run defense has been stellar, but teams are drifting towards the passing game more and more vs. the Vikings because the defense cannot seem to mount much of a pass rush. (DE Erasmus James has been out for some time, DE Kenechi Udeze has not tallied one sack all season, and DT Kevin Williams is limited by a high ankle sprain.) With all that said, don’t look for the Bears to follow the trend of airing the ball out 40-50 times against this defense. OC Ron Turner is a run-first coach and will likely look to limit the number of deep pass plays in this one as the Bears look to: 1) cut down their turnovers and 2) keep the ball out of the hands of the Vikings defense (the unit most likely to score on the Bears, as they did in the first meeting). Keep expectations down across the board for this unit, with Berrian the only WR capable of having a huge yardage day. If a Bears WR scores, it should Muhammad. Bigger, possession-type WRs have fared pretty well against this defense lately.

Jon Kitna/Roy Williams/Mike Furrey (vs. NE)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Pats this season: Packers
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 2.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 7
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/ over the last 3 weeks: 4.5/14.4

Notes: This one is pretty simple. Kitna has thrown at least one pick in every game since Week 3 and is getting sacked/pressured on a regular basis. Only 3 QBs have topped 250 passing yards against the Pats and this defense has allowed only 3 passing scores since Week 3. As far as the WRs (as they did in the Packers game) expect the Pats to double Williams all day long-much like they did Driver two weeks ago-so expect a down game from him. This means Furrey stands to make a nice yardage play. So unless there is a blown coverage at some point during the game, the chances are much greater that Furrey finds the end zone than does Williams.

Alex Smith/Antonio Bryant/Arnaz Battle (vs. NO)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Saints this season: Bucs (2)
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 19.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 23.8
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs over the last 3 weeks: 25.2/25.6

Notes: Smith vs. the Saints defense represents a juicy matchup…for the first-half Niners. In the second half of this season, the Niners have turned their offense almost exclusively to Gore. With that said, the Saints have allowed 18.5+ points to opposing QBs for eight straight games! Considering the rate the Saints are scoring at, Smith may have to throw all day to keep up. Translation: You could do much worse than Smith this week if you need a fill-in starter. The deep threat has routinely torched the Saints in the passing game, so plug in Bryant as a low-end #2 or high-end #3 WR. Lastly, look for the TEs to be involved as well. With Eric Johnson out for at least a couple weeks, look for Vernon Davis to have his biggest yardage game to date.

Tony Romo/Terrell Owens/Terry Glenn/Jason Witten (vs. NYG)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Giants this season: Cowboys
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 32.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 8.8
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 23.9/23.9/7.3

Notes: Romo has probably reached must-start status unless you are already playing a top 5-6 QB like Brees or Palmer already. While a repeat of last Thursday’s 40+ point performance is highly unlikely, he may be in line for 2-3 scores if CB Sam Madison and DE Osi Umenyiora cannot return in time for this game. The return of the first two players would greatly solidify this unit. Since Romo became the starter, Owens has returned to elite status and he figures to abuse this defensive backfield again if it is minus Madison. Glenn is an average play at best despite his 2 scores last week. Witten should be one of the better TE plays this week, but that will depend a lot on how many Giants defensive starters return. (Translation: a healthy Giants defense will force Romo to make more short throws, thus more work for Witten.) Be safe and expect roughly about 50-60 yards from him.

Brett Favre/Donald Driver/Greg Jennings (vs. NYJ)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Jets this season: Lions
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 26.5
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 28.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs over the last 3 weeks: 14.2/22.6

Notes: Actually, the Jets have shored up their pass defense since the Lions game. They have still allowed at least one passing score in each game since Week 3, but the frequency of the scores has gone down. If Brady struggled to manage 15 fantasy points vs. the Jets, there’s little reason to believe that Favre will do all that much better. Route runners such as Driver have had a little better success vs. the Jets than have the deep threats, so play Driver as you normally would and don’t be a bit surprised to see him put up another 80 yards and a score. Favre has spoken very highly of Jennings in recent weeks, but Favre has been missing with the deep ball lately, so Jennings will have to work the intermediate game. However, Favre & Co. SHOULD take a back seat somewhat to the running game this week, so keep expectations reasonable for all parties involved.

David Carr/Andre Johnson/Eric Moulds/Owen Daniels (vs. OAK)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Raiders this season: Broncos (2)
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 11.1
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 14.8
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs:
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 7.6/12/6.3

Notes: This game does not figure to be all that esthetically pleasing. At least in this case, the numbers do not lie in terms of the Raiders defense-this is a up-and-coming defense. (It also helps that the opposition knows they do not have to score a lot to beat the Raiders. ) In two games against the “Shanahan offense”, the Broncos scored 30 points in two games vs. the Raiders. They come off a game where they limited the powerful Chargers offense to a questionable 21 points. Expect the Texans to focus on their running game for as long as they can-there is no way the Texans will attempt 51 passes again this week-so Carr makes for an average play at best. Seeing that the Raiders have only allowed 5 WR scores all season, Johnson does not figure to blow up in this one, although the league leader in catches will still get his customary 80-90 yards. The prospects for Moulds aren’t much better than 40-50 yards. And Daniels isn’t all that great of a play either. This game has all the makings of a 13-10 slugfest.

Jake Delhomme/Steve Smith/Keyshawn Johnson (vs. PHI)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Eagles this season: Bucs
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 5.3
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 6.3
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs over the last 3 weeks: 9.7/7.6

Notes: Given the choice, the Panthers would like nothing better than to run the ball all game long. The Eagles have been very lackluster in stopping the run over the past month, as the Sunday night game vs. the Colts proved. Plus, the Eagles are not tackling very well either. All this is to say that Delhomme is only a fair play this weekend as the game plan should include a lot of DeAngelo Williams and DeShaun Foster (if he plays). Figure Smith to do his usual deed, pushing 100 yards receiving with a good chance of finding the end zone. Keyshawn is only worth a play as a #3 WR. He hasn’t had a double-digit fantasy performance in his last six games. And considering the recent struggles of Delhomme, he shouldn’t be starting in too many fantasy lineups. He should top out at 200 yards and one score.

Bruce Gradkowski/Joey Galloway/Michael Clayton (vs. PIT)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Steelers this season: Browns
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 9.7
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 15.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs over the last 3 weeks: 15/17.7

Notes: This game pits the moveable object against the resistible force. The Bucs have only scored more than 14 points four times this season. This week, they meet a defense that has given up many more big passing plays than we are used to seeing from a vaunted defense. All this bodes well for Joey Galloway. The Steelers cannot seem to stop the long ball. This is simply of a case of the Steelers cornerbacks lacking confidence, something any good CB has to have to be successful in shutting down receivers on a weekly basis. However, the Bucs are not a “long ball team”, thus while Galloway should have a very nice game, it doesn’t mean the Bucs’ passing game is a good one to ride this week. Gradkowski is only an average play at best, with his lone TD pass going to Galloway.

JP Losman/Lee Evans/Roscoe Parrish (vs. SD)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Chargers this season: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: N/A
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs over the last 3 weeks: 17.3/24.7

Notes: Buffalo had better hope they can get the run game going again this weekend because they do not match up well with the Chargers offense. If this doesn’t happen, Losman may struggle mightily. Interestingly, Losman has flip-flopped single-digit and double-digit fantasy performances over his last eight games. And with the exception of the Chad Johnson 3 TD game a few weeks ago, the Chargers have been pretty stout against opposing WRs. Play Evans if you must, but there are not too many numbers to suggest that anybody else associated with the Buffalo passing game is worth playing.

Drew Brees/Joe Horn/Marques Colston/Devery Henderson (vs. SF)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the 49ers this season: Cardinals, Rams (2)
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 16.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 25
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs over the last 3 weeks: 14.5/20

Notes: Not often will you read the following statement in this column, but feel free to play everyone named above (minus Colston if he is ruled out Sunday morning). I don’t like Joe Horn in this one as much as I do the other two, unless Colston cannot make it back. In that case, I like Henderson to explode like he did last week followed by Horn and Terrance Copper putting up similar numbers. With a passing game this hot, Brees is obviously a must-start.

Jay Cutler/Javon Walker/Rod Smith (vs. SEA)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Seahawks this season: Bears, Chiefs
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 18.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 20.9
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs over the last 3 weeks: 11.5/17.1

Notes: Bringing back Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck from injury seemed to help the ‘Hawks defense as it did the offense. This week, they go from defending the league’s most experienced QB (Favre) last week to defending a rookie QB who has yet to take a regular season snap this week. However, that may not be as easy of a task as it sounds. You had better believe Shanahan has been eagerly anticipating the day he could open up the vertical offense again. Expect them to take a number of deep shots to get Walker going again-the Seahawks can be had deep. This will free up everything for the Broncos, thus Walker makes a pretty nice play. Look for Smith and Brandon Marshall to also get involved early as well as Shanahan will want to get Cutler into the flow quickly. So, I am doing the unusual and giving a huge upgrade to every Broncos passing game regular (more so than I would have with Plummer) in Cutler’s first start.

Matt Leinart/Anquan Boldin/Larry Fitzgerald (vs. STL)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Rams this season: Cardinals
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 9.2
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 30.8
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs over the last 3 weeks: 12.2/15.4

Notes: One guarantee: We will not see a repeat of Leinart’s 51 attempt performance vs. the Vikings last week. The closest Edgerrin James has come to topping 100 yards this season was against the Rams in Week 3 (94 yards). Look for Edge to be the main focus, at least early. However, it will be hard for the Cardinals to ignore the Rams’ shortcomings against the pass, especially with Boldin and Fitzgerald both looking very healthy once again. Keep the yardage expectations down to around 250 yards for Leinart, but two scores are definitely within reach. Expect Boldin and Fitzgerald to both put up #1 fantasy WR numbers this week, with Fitzgerald the slightly better play.

Ben Roethlisberger/Nate Washington/Santonio Holmes/Heath Miller (vs. TB)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Bucs this season: Redskins (currently)
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 20.9
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 8.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 18.2
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs over the last 3 weeks: 27.5/27.1/7.9

Notes: Most of American likely saw the Bucs defense exposed last week. With Hines Ward likely out the next two games, more pressure will fall on Washington, Holmes, and Cedrick Wilson. But most of all, look for more Heath Miller and Willie Parker in the passing game. So, even though fans should expect the Steelers to get back to “Steeler football”, a few of the players in the passing game should benefit. Roethlisberger should not break the bank in yards, but look for at least 2 scores from him. Look for Miller to assume at least a part of the scoring responsibilities this week in what should shape up to be one of his better games this season. As far as the best WR play, go with Holmes as the Bucs have struggled with the opposition’s deep threat for most of the season. Washington and Wilson also make for decent under-the-radar plays this week as well.

Peyton Manning/Marvin Harrison/Reggie Wayne/Ben Utecht (vs. TEN)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Titans this season: Colts
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 17.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 23
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 1.5
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs over the last 3 weeks: 17.7/20.9/7

Notes: Colts RBs accounted for 40 touches in their first meeting. Don’t look for things to change all that much this time around. Despite Addai’s 4 TD outburst last week, the Titans would just as soon die a slow death than to get picked apart by the passing game. Nevertheless, Manning is going to find his one of his WRs in the end zone at least once and I like that one to be Harrison this week. He has scored a TD in his last four games vs. the Titans and doesn’t usually have consecutive bad games. Wayne, as usual, remains a very consistent play. Utecht has been getting some attention lately but it is hard to plug him into your starting lineup with any real expectations yet. Dallas Clark does not figure to play anytime soon with what is being diagnosed as an ACL sprain.

Michael Vick/Michael Jenkins/Ashley Lelie/Alge Crumpler (vs. WAS)
Similar passing attacks that have faced the Redskins this season: Titans
FF Points Allowed vs. similar QBs: 13.4
FF Points Allowed vs. similar WRs: 21
FF Points Allowed vs. similar TEs: 0.6
FF Points Allowed vs. QBs/WRs/TEs over the last 3 weeks: 16.1/17.1/3.2

Notes: Atlanta is very much a team searching for its offensive identity lately-much as the Redskins’ defense is. The whole league knows they are a running team, but it is nearly impossible to believe that not one WR has registered a 100-yard performance yet this season. (Roddy White had 99 in Week 10; the next best was 77 yards by Jenkins in Week 1.) The simple truth is that Vick’s passing game success relies almost entirely on Crumpler getting open. In years past, Vick had Brian Finneran to be another set of sure hands in the passing game but it is becoming more and more clear that Vick is losing faith (and rightfully so) in his wideouts. As far as the defense is concerned, it is hard to get a grasp on what this defense is right now. DC Gregg Williams’ defense is neither blitzing (as is his calling card) or forcing turnovers all that often, but yet have managed to stay close in three out of the last four games, winning two of them. So what we have here is pure speculation. Vick has gone consecutive games without throwing an INT, which means he is probably due for 1-2 in this one. The one thing the numbers do say is that the Redskins have been beaten repeatedly by the opposition’s deep threat, making Lelie or Roddy White a wild card pick. Crumpler is once again the safest bet, but don’t expect huge numbers out of him either. Look for the game to be determined by the legs of Vick, Warrick Dunn, and Jerious Norwood.

Rushing

RBs: (1 pt per 10 yards rushing/receiving; 6 pts for all TDs)

Steven Jackson (vs. ARI)
Similar RBs that have faced the Cardinals this season: Jackson
FF Points vs. similar RBs: 12.1
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 18.4

Notes: Jackson actually struggled running the ball in the first meeting, but if Chester Taylor’s numbers from last week are any indication, yards should not be a problem for Jackson this week vs. this Cardinals defense. And with Jackson seeing so many touches lately, he is a good bet to eclipse 100 total yards from here on out. Just about the only question from here on out is if will continue to find the end zone on a weekly basis. He has scored in 5 of his last 6, so the answer would appear to be yes. Jackson should start every week as it is and has pretty much cemented his status as a top 5 pick in next year’s drafts.

Ladell Betts (vs. ATL)
Similar RBs that have faced the Falcons this season: DeShaun Foster, Kevin Jones
FF Points vs. similar RBs: 16.7
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 23

Notes: If we have learned nothing else during this disappointing year for the Redskins, we have learned that Betts is certainly capable of being a starter, be it in Washington or somewhere else. His future could be bright. In regards to this game, Atlanta has been pretty gracious to fantasy RBs, so Betts appears to be a safe bet for at least 80 total yards. But as mentioned above, the Redskins now seem to favor the passing game in the red zone, so keep your expectations of Betts yards-based, as a score remains unlikely-he has scored only once this season.

LaDainian Tomlinson (vs. BUF)
Similar RBs that have faced the Bills this season: N/A
FF Points vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 27.8

Notes: As mentioned earlier, this matchup does not bode well for the Bills defense. Look for Tomlinson to approach Alexander’s TD mark this week in a big way with at least 2-3 scores. The Bills have allowed at least 130 yards rushing to opposing RBs in each of the last four weeks. If the weather conditions do not interfere, this could be another HUGE game for Tomlinson. As usual, Tomlinson is the best play of the week.

Brian Westbrook (vs. CAR)
Similar RBs that have faced the Panthers this season: Reggie Bush
FF Points vs. similar RBs: 5
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 8.5

Notes: Consider this the period of time that Andy Reid finds out if Westbrook can actually be a “feature back”. After only seeing as many as 25 touches in a game once in the season’s first half, Westbrook has met or exceeded that mark in each of his last three games. Expect 20-25 more touches in this game as well as the Eagles keep it close…the Panthers don’t figure to score a lot of points in this game. It may come as a bit of a surprise that Westbrook has only scored once in his last four games. I would expect his contributions to come more from Jeff Garcia dump-off passes than on designed runs. Either way, Westbrook should once again be good for 100-120 total yards. Behind LJ Smith, he is the Eagle most likely to score this week.

Chester Taylor (vs. CHI)
Similar RB committees that have faced the Bears this season: Taylor
FF Points vs. similar RB committees: 8.9
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 18.4

Notes: The Vikings need this game to stay in the playoff race. Despite a 3 TD game from Brad Johnson last week, the Vikings offense will only go as far as Taylor and the Vikings offensive line can take them this week. That said, it is hard to expect low-end #1 RB numbers this week. Taylor has been scoring double-digit fantasy points pretty consistently and will get his yards, no doubt about it. However, the Bears have only given up 3 rushing scores all season, all in the past three weeks. Play Taylor with the impression that he will come close (and probably surpass) the 89 total yards he accumulated in Week 3. Be very happy with a score, but keep expectations to around 100 total yards.

Larry Johnson (vs. CLE)
Similar RBs that have faced the Browns this season: Rudi Johnson
FF Points vs. similar RBs:
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 16.2

Notes: Tomlinson should have the highest scoring week once again. LJ should be right behind him. If he continues to get his 35+ touches in this game, 200 total yards and 2 scores are definitely within reach. Ride LJ to victory this week.

Tiki Barber/Brandon Jacobs (vs. DAL)
Similar RB committees that have faced the Cowboys this season: Barber/Jacobs
FF Points vs. similar committees: 22.6
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 11.6

Notes: While the loss of LT Luke Petitgout hasn’t affected Jacobs’ production, it sure seems like it is hurting Barbers’. In the two games since Petitgout’s injury, Barber has averaged 3.1/carry. (He averaged 5.1/carry before.) It stands to reason as Barber had his most success running behind Petitgout (6.4 yds/carry on carries to the wide left). Look for this week’s media outbursts to galvanize the Giants against their hated division rivals. Don’t look for Barber to match his 146 total yard performance vs. the Cowboys earlier in the season, but DO look for Jacobs to come close to matching his 10-point performance in the same game assuming the Giants can get him some work inside the 10-yard line. Long story short, if you have relying on both, continue to do so. Barber will push 100 total yards every week and Jacobs is always a threat to score at least once.

Shaun Alexander (vs. DEN)
Similar RBs that have faced the Broncos this season: Larry Johnson
FF Points vs. similar RBs: 22.3
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 30.1

Notes: Perhaps no time in the history of fantasy football has one team had to face the best three RBs for the year before consecutively. Fortunately for the Broncos, Alexander seems to be the least of the preseason “Big Three”. However, Alexander showed last week that he was as healthy as we have seen him all year. (He’s not near as quick as last year, but expect that to improve as well as we move along…) Look for Alexander to continue seeing the ball plenty (not 40 times though!!) as they face a tougher defense this week and they look to keep QB Matt Hasselbeck healthy. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Alexander score his 2nd touchdown of the year this year and push 90-100 yards on the ground.

Corey Dillon/Laurence Maroney (vs. DET)
Similar RB committees that have faced the Lions this season: N/A
FF Points vs. similar RB committees: N/A
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 19.9

Notes: The Lions have faced one semi-committee (CHI), but Dillon & Maroney figure to have their way with this defense. The trick is figuring out which one will have the better day. Given Maroney has been the more productive fantasy back in two straight games, the Pats may feel it is time to get the old man back in the mix-if healthy. Both backs make for good #2 RB plays this weekend and with Maroney’s recent involvement in the passing game, he may be a good #2 RB from here on out regardless of the opponent. I like both backs a lot this week.

Cedric Houston/Leon Washington (vs. GB)
Similar RB committees that have faced the Packers this season: N/A
FF Points vs. similar RB committees: N/A
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 23.4

Notes: In the news EVERY fantasy owner has been waiting for…Kevan Barlow can now be dropped. This is officially the Houston/Washington show. The only problem is that while Houston is probably a better back than Barlow, his role will be the same as Barlow’s. So whatever you have been getting out of Barlow is about what you should expect out of Cedric. The Packers have faced a couple RB committees, but the Pats and Saints RBs are at another level. And while this defense is coming off a game allowing 200+ rushing yards, don’t look for history to repeat itself-it was the first 100-yard rushing performance the Pack had allowed this season. It’s always tricky to predict big plays, which makes playing Washington more of a gamble than Houston. That said, the Pack leads the league in receiving yards to RBs, which is a spot where Washington will most likely do his most damage. Look for 60-70 total yards out of him. It’s common knowledge the Jets rushing game is far from a sure thing to begin with, but if you need to pick a Jet, Houston is the way to go this week. He should be able to mix a score in with about 50 total yards.

Justin Fargas (vs. HOU)
Similar RBs that have faced the Texans this season: N/A
FF Points vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 15.8

Notes: Not one single DT the Texans now employ on their defensive line started training camp with the team. Does this make Fargas a great play this week? Not really. Fargas may get a chance to crack his season high rushing total (66), but as we all know by now, the Raiders offensive line isn’t going to give us a sudden fantasy star anytime soon. Pencil Fargas in for 70-80 total yards with Zach Crockett or ReShard Lee being the most likely to steal a score from him. Frankly, there are too many below average performers associated with this running game. Fargas is pretty much a desperation play, the others are not worth considering.

Travis Henry (vs. IND)
Similar RBs that have faced the Colts this season: Henry
FF Points vs. similar RBs: 13.3
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 21.4

Notes: If the Titans can continue their recent string of good play, this figures to be an interesting game. Actually, beginning with their first meeting against these same Colts, the Titans began resembling a quality NFL franchise (two of their last 3 losses have been by one point). Henry has registered four 100-yard games in his last six and he will need to make that 5 of 7 if he hopes to help the Titans steal one from the Colts. It’s common knowledge the Colts can be run on, so look for Vince Young and Henry to combine for at least 30 rushes to keep the Colts offense somewhat grounded. Henry should be one of the better plays of the week.

Sammy Morris (vs. JAX)
Similar RBs that have faced the Jags this season: Wali Lundy (2)
FF Points vs. similar RBs: 13.6
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 15.4

Notes: The Jags have proved repeatedly that they struggle against the run on the road. While I could surmise all day as to why that is, I will digress. This phenomenon, however, does make Morris a better-than-you-would-expect play this weekend though. Part of that “good feeling” can be attributed to the developing right side of the Dolphins offensive line. For those Ronnie Brown owners, play Morris as you would Brown usually. The numbers will be a bit down, but nothing to write home about. I like Morris for about 80-90 total yards with an outside chance for a score.

Reuben Droughns/Jason Wright (vs. KC)
Similar RB committees that have faced the Chiefs this season:
FF Points vs. similar RB committees:
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 11

Notes: Unfortunately, we have yet another RB committee to announce. The Browns are desperate to get someone (anyone) who has some quickness into the lineup to ignite the running game. As with most committees on bad teams, it makes it nearly impossible to play either one. And since Browns RBs have not accounted for 100 total yards in any game since Week 8, I suggest you keep them on your bench. Neither player should be anything more than a flex play, if even that.

Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. MIA)
Similar RB committees that have faced the Dolphins this season: Dillon/Maroney
FF Points vs. similar RB committees: 8.3
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 13.5

Notes: Interesting fun fact: If you combine Taylor’s numbers with Drew’s, you would have a RB that has out-produced Larry Johnson! Needless to say, this is fantasy’s best (or at least most productive) RB committee. As such, expect them to keep producing against this pretty unrelenting Dolphins defense. Continue to play both Taylor and Drew as #2 RBs. Much like Marion Barber in Dallas, Drew’s production per touch has been off the charts lately. However, because the Dolphins have allowed only 5 RB scores all season, Taylor makes the better play this weekend as he will get his usual 20-25 touches. Pencil Taylor in for about 90-100 total yards and Drew for 50-60, with neither party getting in the end zone.

Thomas Jones (vs. MIN)
Similar RBs that have faced the Vikings this season: Jones
FF Points vs. similar RBs: 6.5
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 4.6

Notes: When is the last time a defense only faced 17 rushing attempts over the course of two weeks? This is becoming ridiculous-teams aren’t even really trying to run anymore on the Vikings. That figures to change this week as there is little reason for the Bears to deviate from the game plan that won them the first meeting in Week 3. OC Ron Turner has been and will always be a play-caller that believes that you run to set up the pass. And given the high number of giveaways over the past 5-6 weeks, Turner will look to Jones and Cedric Benson quite often. Even better news: run-stuffing DT Pat Williams has injury issues and will far from 100%. While the Vikes will still be tough to run against, expect the Bears’ running game to be fairly productive. Look for Doug to touch the ball more than the 21 times he touched it against the Vikes, with Benson playing his usual relief role. Doug makes a good #2 RB play this week while Benson makes a decent flex play.

Kevin Jones (vs. NE)
Similar RBs that have faced the Pats this season: Ahman Green
FF Points vs. similar RBs: 2.8
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 14.8

Notes: Most fantasy owners would like to sit Jones this week to see where he is health-wise, if not also because of his matchup. But most owners probably don’t have the luxury of “seeing where he is at”. Regardless, it’s hard to like Jones to put anything more than average #2 RB numbers this week. You should fully expect Jones to contribute just as much receiving as he does rushing. I’m not optimistic about his chances of scoring this week, but Jones has enough game to mount 60-70 total yards regardless of how tough the defense he faces is. This will be one of those “tough” weeks.

Frank Gore (vs. NO)
Similar RBs that have faced the Saints this season: Ahman Green, Willie Parker
FF Points vs. similar RBs: 21.3
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 22.6

Notes: The Saints defense has allowed 617 total rushing yards the last three games. Much as they have tried to do in the second half of the season, the Niners will do their best to keep things close by running Gore. Willie Parker sliced and diced this run defense with his two 70+ yard runs and Gore is the type of back who can do that as well. The only thing that may limit Gore’s effectiveness is if the Niners cannot keep the Saints out of the end zone. Because they have been playing better all-around defense as of late, Gore should be in good shape in that regard. I like Gore to pile up about 175 total yards and at least one long-distance score.

Julius Jones/Marion Barber (vs. NYG)
Similar RB committees that have faced the Giants this season: Jones/Barber
FF Points vs. similar RB committees: 10.1
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 16.1

Notes: Of late, the Cowboys running game has been good for about 2 scores per game. Marion Barber is the league’s 4th leading TD scorer, incredible considering the relative lack of work he receives. Unlike the first meeting, however, I think the G-men allow only one rushing score in a game that should be closer than some are probably expecting. The Giants need this game and will play with some desperation, thus I wouldn’t be too surprised to see them win this game. Keep an eye on the Giants injury report. If Osi Umenyiora, Brandon Short and Sam Madison can all get back on the field, their presence will have a trickle-down effect to the rest of the defense. As a whole, I expect Jones/Barber to put up more than the 101 total yards they combined for in the first meeting, but not much more. In all, I like Barber as a slightly better play in this one as he is the most likely candidate to score that aforementioned one rushing TD, but both backs make for good #2 RB plays regardless.

Ahman Green (vs. NYJ)
Similar RBs that have faced the Jets this season: Kevin Jones
FF Points vs. similar RBs: 20.3
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 14.4

Notes: Last week’s game vs. the Texans was the first time the Jets have not allowed double-digit points to at least one RB this season (and that was in large part because Lundy only had 16 touches). Prior to that game, they had allowed 125+ rushing yards on a pretty routine basis, so look for Green to get more than the 27 total carries he has received in the past two weeks. In the interest of full disclosure, Green has struggled against 3-4 defenses, so keep expectations realistic despite the gaudy numbers the Jets have allowed. Green has had either 100 rushing yards, 20+ carries or both in each of their wins. Thus, look for Green to be a pretty good #2 RB play this weekend as he should be good for 110 total yards and a score.

Wali Lundy/Samkon Gado (vs. OAK)
Similar RB committees that have faced the Raiders this season: N/A
FF Points vs. similar RB committees: N/A
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 23.3

Notes: There seems to be a general consensus that the Raiders defense is somewhat of a fluke. Their pass defense is physical and legit. The run defense is still a work in progress. That said, they are getting better and Tomlinson needed a long 44-yard run late in the game last week to help push himself over the 100-yard mark. Expect the Houston tandem (said now to include a third member, Chris Harris) to stick with run this week. What will hurt this cause is the loss of C Mike Flanagan, so don’t look for a sleeper candidate from this committee anytime soon. The Texans are simply too banged up to mount considerable offense in this one. In other words, stay away since no reasonable fantasy owner wants a 3-way split of 80-90 total yards.

DeShaun Foster/DeAngelo Williams (vs. PHI)
Similar RBs that have faced the Eagles this season: N/A
FF Points vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 31.9

Notes: Foster’s status is very much in question, so if he sits out, look for Williams to explode. Carolina’s running game has been sporadic all season, but Philly has become a liability against the run. Don’t expect this rookie (Williams) to match the numbers of the rookie that faced this defense last week (Addai), however, yards should be aplenty for Williams if he gets all the carries. Given the choice, Carolina prefers to run the ball as much as possible, so pencil in Williams for at least 120 total yards and a score if Foster cannot go. If they both go, Foster is the better play but not by much. The two combined should go well over 150 total yards and a score.

Cadillac Williams (vs. PIT)
Similar RBs that have faced the Steelers this season: Deuce McAllister
FF Points vs. similar RBs: 11.8
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 20.4

Notes: The Bucs are just the team the Steelers need to see to get their ship righted-a team that is pretty anemic in the passing game that counts mostly on a physical running game. Williams has been largely a disappointment this season. Don’t look for that to change this week. Despite their awful struggles against the pass, the Steelers can still stop the run. Williams’ one shot at a decent game is the loss of S Troy Polamalu. With or without Polamalu, the Bucs are the type of team that the Steelers should handle, save for a big play or two by Joey Galloway. Feel fortunate if Williams can top 60 yards.

Willis McGahee (vs. SD)
Similar RBs that have faced the Chargers this season: N/A
FF Points vs. similar RBs: N/A
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 24

Notes: As most of the fantasy football world knows, Shawne Merriman returns to jump start the defense. The Chargers defense has been average at best without their emotional leader so this game should mark the return of the shutdown unit that played very well during the first half of the season. Before Merriman’s departure, the only back San Diego struggled to contain was Larry Johnson, in part because they were missing run-stuffer Luis Castillo. While McGahee looked good in his return last week, he is not going to be confused with LJ anytime soon. The only saving grace for McGahee owners is that snow showers are expected in Buffalo this weekend, so McGahee may get a shot at 25+ carries. And fortunately for McGahee, some offensive line changes made during their bye week have helped the offense. But make no mistake, he will struggle this weekend. I don’t like the chances of him scoring, but if they are going to score a TD, it will likely come via the run. Level off your expectations at about 75-80 total yards.

Deuce McAllister/Reggie Bush (vs. SF)
Similar RB committees that have faced the 49ers this season: N/A
FF Points vs. similar RB committees: N/A
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 14.4

Notes: Maybe the 49ers defense isn’t all that great yet, but one look at their schedule this year reveals a list of stellar RBs that have opposed them this year, including Tomlinson, LJ, Steven Jackson, Alexander, Brian Westbrook, and Chester Taylor. With the passing offense taking center stage for the Saints, Bush has started to emerge as a candidate for regular fantasy play. And we already know Deuce is a weekly play. I like Deuce’s chances to score at least once in this game, so he gets the nod over Bush, as 75 yards and a score should be within reach. Bush should push 90 total yards.

Denver RBs (vs. SEA)
Similar RB committees that have faced the Seahawks this season: N/A
FF Points vs. similar RB committees: N/A
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 22.8

Notes: It sounds more and more like Tatum Bell will be back for this one, but last week left a number of fantasy owners frustrated as ever with the Bronco RB situation, first with Tatum healthy then not playing followed by Mike Bell replacing him and seeing only 10 carries. Quite honestly, when both Bells are active, I don’t like either one for the rest of the year. Turf toe does not heal over the course of two weeks, so I would continue to avoid both RBs until we see evidence of a comeback. Even then, it seems like it is a crapshoot just to pick the right Bell to start each week, not to mention if he will do well. As far as the Seahawks defense, they just played a team in the Packers that have a zone blocking scheme similar to the Broncos and they did a pretty good job handling it. If the Broncos hope to win this week, it will fall on the shoulders of Cutler and the passing game. This running game has a chance this week if Cutler is able to get the Seattle defense to respect the deep ball. All that said, Tatum will not produce great numbers again until 2007, so expect low-end #2 RB numbers at best from him.

Edgerrin James (vs. STL)
Similar RBs that have faced the Rams this season: James
FF Points vs. similar RBs: 15.9
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 22.3

Notes: James has not topped 100 rushing yards this year. The closest he came was against the Rams in Week 3. Even better, HC Dennis Green says the Rams are a “different team than the Vikings”, so he will pound the ball. However, it is hard to ignore that the passing game seems to be catching fire once again with all its parts healthy once again. So, look for James to come close (but not exceed) his Week 3 totals once the Cardinals realize the Rams can be had just as easily in the passing game. All things considered though, this game should give James’ owners the best numbers they are going to get for the rest of the year.

Willie Parker (vs. TB)
Similar RBs that have faced the Bucs this season: Tiki Barber
FF Points vs. similar RBs: 8.8
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 17.4

Notes: Parker has been dynamic at home, somewhat average on the road. Fortunately for him, this game is at Heinz Field. The Bucs are allowing an average of 140 total yards to RBs this season, which is about what Parker should be in line for this week. Tack on at least one TD to that total and you should get #1 RB numbers this week from Fast Willie.

Joseph Addai/Dominic Rhodes (vs. TEN)
Similar RB committees that have faced the Titans this season: Addai/Rhodes
FF Points vs. similar RB committees: 16.7
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 21.7

Notes: As noted earlier, the Titans have played better in recent weeks and their run defense has played a small part in this resurgence. This game should remain fairly close throughout. As last Sunday night showed us, Addai is ready to carry the load and do so at a high level. So, while Addai still does not figure to start, Addai will finish each game and at 5.1 yards/carry, he’s a good bet to top the 100-yard mark for the second straight game. I like him to score once against a defense that, before last week, had not given up a rushing score since Week 6. He makes a solid #2 RB play this week.

Warrick Dunn (vs. WAS)
Similar RBs that have faced the Redskins this season: DeAngelo Williams
FF Points vs. similar RBs: 8.6
FF Points vs. all other teams’ running games over the last 3 weeks: 23

Notes: The Redskins have been giving up their fair share of rushing yards in recent weeks, but not a lot of scores. (The last RB rushing score they allowed was in Week 6.) Since this is generally the book on Dunn, it should make sense that Dunn push the 100-yard mark in this game but not score as well. As mentioned above, the fate of this game will be determined by the running prowess of Vick, Dunn, and even Jerious Norwood. Dunn averages about 11 fantasy points/game and that is about what should be expected here.