The oft ignored in fantasy circles Andy Dalton is making a push
to be considered a weekly starter as October kicks off. In three
games, Dalton has thrown eight touchdowns to only one interception,
with multiple scores in every game. He will of course continue
to benefit from the presence of A.J. Green, one of the best receivers
in the game. Giovani Bernard out of the backfield, Tyler Eifert’s
emergence, and Marvin Jones finally returning to health will all
support Dalton’s cause as well. If you are struggling at quarterback
due to injury or a disappointing start, Dalton might be the guy
you’re looking for to right the ship.
After a disastrous Week 1, Derek Carr has turned things around
dramatically in his last two games. Over Weeks 2 and 3, Carr has
thrown for 665 yards, five touchdowns, and only one interception.
Amari Cooper looks like a star in the making and Michael Crabtree
brings a veteran presence to the receiving corps. Latavius Murray’s
breakout on the ground will keep defenses honest, allowing Carr
to work without excessive pressure. I’m not ready to declare Carr
more than a matchup play yet, but when the matchup is right, we
should see more games like the last two.
One of the more popular late-round quarterback picks of 2015
is starting to play his way out of fantasy lineups entirely. It
isn’t all his fault, he just happens to be on a team whose
winning strategy is via running and defense. In his last two games,
he has thrown for 153 and 121 yards. On the season, he only has
two interceptions (which is nice), but only one touchdown pass.
Bridgewater is a good quarterback for his real life team, but
currently not a very good one for your fantasy team. He’s
can be dropped in any league that only requires starting one quarterback.
I was fine with giving Andrew Luck a pass after games against
the Bills and Jets, two of the better defenses in the NFL. After
a matchup with the Titans that saw him finish outside the Top
12 at quarterback for the third week in a row, it’s time
to finally welcome him to the status of “falling.”
He has thrown five touchdowns on the year, but also has EIGHT
interceptions. Luck hasn’t thrown for more than 260 yards
in a single game and he’s completing less than 60 percent
of his passes. Based on where you drafted him, you probably have
to ride it out with him in your starting lineup and hope the Colts
offense fixes its problems sooner rather than later.
Latavius Murray is doing exactly what anyone who took him in
the 4th or 5th round was hoping for: developing into the featured
back for the Oakland Raiders. Preseason concerns about Roy Helu
stealing his thunder appear unfounded. Through three games, Murray
has 52 carries and 11 receptions, keeping owners in standard and
PPR leagues all plenty happy. The biggest concern entering the
season was regarding what would happen if the Raiders fell behind
early in games, but with his early domination of the running back
touches, it appears he will remain in the fold no matter the game
flow. Murray can be locked into lineups on a weekly basis without
a second thought.
The month of September has revealed a true top running back in
Buffalo, and it isn’t LeSean McCoy. Rookie Karlos Williams has
a touchdown in all three games, averaging 7.75 yards per carry
in the process. If at any point the Bills finally decide to rest
McCoy and his injured hamstring for a game or two, Williams will
instantly become a sure starter in fantasy leagues. With McCoy
trying to play through his injury at less than 100%, Williams
will continue to split time in the backfield, but will be a risky
start for fantasy purposes. He’s at the point where you can start
him if you’re desperate, but isn’t a must use quite yet.
An injury to Tevin Coleman gave Devonta Freeman a chance to shine,
and shine he did. 30 carries, 141 yards and three touchdowns was
more than even the most optimistic Freeman owner could have possibly
dreamed of when he became the man for Atlanta in Week 3. He was
already steadily involved in the offense when Coleman was healthy,
and Freeman likely played his way into an even bigger role when
Coleman returns. At the very least, you can ride Freeman in your
lineup as long as Coleman is out.
The second season as a full time starter in Baltimore isn’t
going as planned for Justin Forsett. Through September, Forsett
has zero touchdowns while averaging a modest 3.18 yards per carry.
He is averaging 4 catches per game, but he’s turned those
12 receptions into only 41 receiving yards. Right now all Forsett
owners can do is hope the Ravens continue to push forward and
hope things turn around for the run game, but sooner or later
they might decide to give a longer look to Lorenzo Talieferro
or Buck Allen - a terrible thought for people who used such an
early pick on Mr. Forsett.
It has been a rough year for early round running backs. C.J.
Anderson seemed primed to carry his late 2014 success over to
2015, but instead he is following in the footsteps of other recent
Broncos starters that couldn’t get it going out of the gate. Anderson
has only averaged 2.31 yards per carry while failing to surpass
29 yards rushing in a single game. He also has no touchdowns,
so he’s not even salvaging any games for his fantasy owners. The
Broncos have created an almost even split in the backfield, as
Anderson has 32 carries on the year, while Ronnie Hillman has
28. Neither of them is having much success on the ground, as Hillman
is only averaging 3.14 yards per carry. The Broncos running game
as a whole needs a major turnaround if Anderson is going to return
value for owners who drafted him in the first two rounds.
It’s disappointing to see a third top 12 pre-season running
back appear in this space in the same week. A two-touchdown game
in Week 1 saved Jeremy Hill’s line for the season, but he
has not performed up to the standards set when he was selected
in the second round of most drafts. He is averaging just three
yards per carry through three games. In Week 2, Hill was benched
for fumbling. In Week 3, he only saw 28 snaps as Giovani Bernard
saw 51. It’s a bad sign for Hill that he essentially disappears
from the game plan in favor of Bernard when the Bengals go into
pass heavy mode. He’s still probably a weekly starter due
to a lack of depth at the position, but right now I’m not
even certain that he is the best fantasy running back on his own
team.
For the past few seasons Steve Smith has been projected to fall
off the old man cliff. And yet, every year, Smith stays in the
fantasy picture. He’s off to a fast start again in 2015, coming
off two straight games with 10 or more receptions and 150 or more
receiving yards. There should be more opportunity for big weeks
in the future as well, for two reasons. First, the Ravens offense
is lacking in alternatives, at least until Breshad Perriman returns.
Next, after the way Oakland and Cincinnati each scored on Baltimore,
it seems as though the Ravens defense is in trouble. The more
they give up, the more the offense will have to pass, and thus,
the more chances Steve Smith will have to keep returning to the
fountain of youth.
Heading into the season, there were a number of potential number
two receivers behind Jarvis Landry in the Dolphins receiving pecking
order. Kenny Stills was a big trade acquisition. Greg Jennings
is getting up there in age, but he has a strong history. DeVante
Parker was drafted 14th overall in the NFL draft. So who has been
that guy we were looking for? Rishard Matthews. He has six catches
in two straight games, with 113 and 115 yards receiving in those
games. Matthews is number two in targets and leads the team in
yards per reception. Ryan Tannehill has thrown five touchdowns
this year – three of them to Matthews. I believe it’s only a matter
of time before DeVante Parker becomes the non-Landry wide receiver
to own, but for now, ride the hot hand of Matthews while you can.
After short, unsuccessful tours in Oakland and the Greater New
York City area, James Jones returned home to Green Bay, where
he and Aaron Rodgers acted like they were never apart. Jones has
four touchdowns in three games for the Packers. He is tied for
second on the team in targets, and alone in second for receptions.
Jones has 219 yards on the season, one of only two members of
the Packers with at least 100 receiving yards (Randall Cobb, 245).
Now with the unknown status of Davante Adams (ankle), Jones will
have even more opportunity going forward in the Green Bay offense.
Rodgers has always been able to sustain at least two strong fantasy
wide receivers, and as long as Jones is one of those two as he
has so far, he should get a lot of consideration for fantasy lineups.
It’s sad to say, but it appears we are witnessing the end
of Andre Johnson as a player of any fantasy usefulness. His catchless
Week 3 leaves his season total at seven receptions for 51 yards.
His 7.3 yards per catch are far worse than the top three receivers
on the Colts, who are each at 11.8 or higher. At this point if
you’re holding onto Johnson because of his name you should
reconsider. A player’s name isn’t enough to waste
a roster spot. I’m ready to bail on Johnson completely.
After a strong debut first season with the Lions, expectations
were that Golden Tate could keep going strong in season 2. He
went mid-4th round in the average draft, going off the board at
around WR20. Through three games, he’s averaging under 54 yards
per contest, hasn’t scored a touchdown, and is WR51 in standard
leagues. Anyone who drafted him has likely used him each week,
and they’ve been left with the following standard finishes: WR77,
WR45, and WR49. He can for sure recover to the point of being
useful for fantasy owners – and is a stud if anything happens
to Calvin Johnson – but he should not be considered a must start
right now.
One of the more popular picks of the summer for people in the
seventh round and later was Charles Johnson. Pretty soon he will
be one of the most popular drops of the year. Johnson has just
six catches for 36 yards in three games. He is fourth in targets
on a team that clearly has a run-first mentality. He’s also
not doing himself any favors in his few opportunities to catch
the ball: Johnson is 7th on the Vikings in YAC (yards after catch).
I see no reason to continue holding him.
Signing in Buffalo was viewed as a huge detriment to Charles
Clay as a fantasy asset, but so far, it seems that may not be
the case. He has a touchdown in two straight games. Clay’s 12
receptions is tied for 10th most at tight end, and his 17 targets
ties him for 11th. He’s second on the Bills in targets, only one
behind team leader Percy Harvin. Clay’s statistical output could
wind up being solid yet unspectacular, but solid is good enough
for many fantasy lineups.
It appears we were all one year early on Jordan Reed. In 2014,
Reed was a very popular late round tight end, but injuries derailed
that. That upside seen before a poor 2014 has finally come out
in 2015. His three finishes this season: TE8, TE9, and TE7. Not
only has he been useful, but he’s been a must start. With
at least 6 receptions each game and the third most targets in
the NFL at the position, there’s nothing stopping him from
continue at his TE1 pace (unless, of course, that injury bug rears
its ugly head yet again).
The first tight end off most draft boards after the clear top
4 (Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce)
was usually Martellus Bennett. He has not lived up to those high
expectations thus far, as he’s been only the No.15 tight end in
standard leagues. In his last two games, he’s finished 22nd and
34th at the position, barely helpful at all for fantasy owners.
To make matters worse, Jimmy Clausen is the Bears quarterback
for at least one more game, maybe more. For now, his owners just
have to weather the storm and hope a bounce back comes soon, but
the frustration over his September games are understandable.
A yearly tradition in the fantasy football world seems to be
the wanting to declare Kyle Rudolph a top fantasy tight end. The
other yearly tradition is the letdown for owners who believe the
hype. So far in 2015, Rudolph has 30 yards or less in two of three
games (53 in the third). He does lead the Vikings in targets,
so that’s nice, but he’s turned those targets into
less than 100 receiving yards. If he can’t produce as the
team leader in targets, what happens if the targets drop off?
I didn’t mean for this week’s Risers and Fallers turn
into an attack on the Vikings passing game, it just kind of worked
out that way. Adrian Peterson is the only member of the Minnesota
offense I have any interest in utilizing in fantasy right now.
