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Jason Mitchell | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Risers and Fallers: Week 1
Fantasy Football Stock Watch
9/16/15

Carson Palmer

If Carson Palmer can keep his injuries in check, he has a chance to return QB1 value all season.


Quarterback

Rising

Marcus Mariota, TEN
Wow, what an awesome debut for Marcus Mariota. Four touchdowns on just 16 pass attempts is certainly not a sustainable pace, but the impressiveness of his first NFL game can’t be denied. I won’t declare Mariota trustworthy as a weekly starter yet, as he is a rookie and rookies tend to have growing pains. If you aren’t starting a stud at quarterback, however, I’d make a point to grab Mariota, just in case Week 1 was a launching point into a great fantasy season.

Carson Palmer, ARI
Carson Palmer spent the summer as a popular target for people who liked to wait a really, really long time to draft their quarterback. All those patient drafters looked really intelligent after Week 1. Palmer’s ADP had him in the streaming tier of the quarterback position, when in reality he looks like he should be considered a weekly starter. With the weapons at his disposal, the only thing I can see derailing a potential QB1 season is another injury.

Falling

Peyton Manning, DEN
Something just didn’t seem right with Peyton Manning in his Week 1 game against the Ravens. I am by no means prepared to write off Manning all together, that would be silly. I will say though that I’m ready to confirm that Manning is outside the elite tier of fantasy quarterback. If you own Manning, you still have to run him out there (for now), but prepare yourself for the idea that he’s not the same fantasy powerhouse.

Joe Flacco, BAL
The Baltimore-Denver game was a showcase for quarterbacks not looking like their typical selves. Joe Flacco is a different case because he was never being drafted as a fantasy starter, but he was a definite starter in 2QB leagues and on the streaming radar in standard leagues. Life without Torrey Smith looks like it will be difficult for Flacco, and until Breshad Perriman can finally get healthy enough to fill that void, Flacco can likely be set aside in most formats unless your situation is dire.

Running Back

Rising

Dion Lewis, NE
All summer the question with the Patriots was “who will win the Shane Vereen role?” It appears we have our answer in Dion Lewis. Lewis can be propelled into the starter conversation in PPR leagues immediately, but don’t forget how frustrating it can be to start a Patriots running back. The actual Vereen had his moments (like Lewis did against the Steelers), but also had weeks where he got completely game-planned out of fantasy relevancy.

Chris Ivory, NYJ
The box score might make it look like Bilal Powell is a threat to Chris Ivory, but that’s not the case in reality. Six of Powell’s 12 carries came in the fourth quarter with the Jets up three touchdowns. In reality, Chris Ivory looks like a workhorse running back in a league lacking in workhorses. He’s still not a major factor in the passing game, so there is always the risk that Ivory disappoints in weeks where the Jets are forced to throw a lot, but Chris Ivory can be considered a relatively safe weekly starter.

Carlos Hyde, SF
Now we see why the 49ers were fine with letting one of the best running backs in team history walk away. Carlos Hyde looked like a stud against the Vikings, racking up 168 yards and two touchdowns. With Reggie Bush’s injury status up in the air, Hyde looks like he’s all by himself in San Francisco’s run-first offense. There’s nothing stopping him from being a fantasy football RB1 moving forward.

Falling

The Giants Backfield
As a whole, the Giants three running backs were able to put up 80 yards rushing and 126 yards combined. The problem: none of them had over 60 total yards. Shane Vereen gets a minor boost in PPR leagues and Rashad Jennings looks like the back most likely to get touchdowns, but it’s difficult to truly trust any of them. I wouldn’t rush to drop Jennings or Vereen, but I would also try to keep any owned Giants running back benched until we get some clarity on their usage.

Joique Bell, DET
When someone goes up (Ameer Abdullah), someone else must come down. Abdullah led the Lions’ backfield in rushing attempts and total touches, while outperforming Joique Bell in the process. I doubt Bell will disappear from fantasy relevancy all together, but I also can’t imagine the weekly starter version of Bell from 2014 will be returning any time soon. Keep him rostered because we know what he can do, but don’t feel like he’s a must-start unless something changes in the Detroit backfield.

Frank Gore, IND
It might be jumping the gun to downgrade Frank Gore after one poor week against one of the best defenses in the NFL, but something seemed off with Gore in the game against the Bills. Indianapolis was rumored to have him on a “pitch count” before the game even started, and Week 1 didn’t do anything to change those rumors. Gore was drafted with top 10 upside in mind because of his situation, but moving forward he should be considered more of a solid, yet unspectacular RB2.

Wide Receiver

Rising

Keenan Allen, SD
Don’t expect 17 targets to be a weekly event, but Keenan Allen stamped himself as the top option in the San Diego Chargers’ offense on Sunday. Philip Rivers clearly has a lot of faith in Allen, so it’s not crazy to expect him to lead the Chargers in targets most weeks. Allen is definitely a must-start until Antonio Gates comes back, and with Gates getting up there in age, I don’t think Allen will be hurt after Gates’ return either.

Donte Moncrief, IND
Donte Moncrief put to rest the rumors of Phillip Dorsett usurping him for the WR3 role in the Colts offense. Moncrief was the one getting Luck’s attention for much of the game against Buffalo, and there is still room for him to grow. T.Y. Hilton (bruised knee) has some potential injury issues and Andre Johnson did not look like the great Andre Johnson of years past. I’m not rushing him into any lineups yet, but after watching every snap of the Buffalo-Indy game, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that Moncrief approaches fantasy WR3 (or even WR2) status in 2015.

Percy Harvin, BUF
With all the questionable news about Percy Harvin as a person and teammate, it’s easy to forget how talented Harvin is as a football player. Sammy Watkins is listed as the WR1 on the Bills depth chart, but Harvin certainly seemed like the main guy in the Buffalo Bills passing attack. Buffalo is still a run-first offense and Watkins won’t be forgotten, so there are a lot of hurdles for Harvin to overcome to becoming a weekly fantasy starter, but for now he’s definitely usable for owners desperate to fill a lineup (I’m looking at you, Dez Bryant and DeSean Jackson owners).

Falling

Andre Johnson, IND
I mentioned it in the Moncrief section above and I’ll say it again: the Andre Johnson in Indianapolis is not the Houston Texans version of AJ. He will remain interesting in fantasy due to volume alone, though I don’t see many game-swinging weeks from Johnson this season. For now I’d still rather own Johnson; however, Moncrief passing him on the Colts’ depth chart isn’t out of the question this year.

Allen Robinson, JAC
Expectations were sky high for Allen Robinson entering this season but he came up short in Week 1. By the end of the summer, Robinson was getting drafted as a weekly starter (5.07 ADP in 12-team PPR according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com), when in reality he probably should have been drafted as a high upside bench wide receiver a couple rounds later. The performances by Robinson (and the Jaguars offense as a whole) against the Panthers shows why it’s not yet time to trust the young wide out.

Calvin Johnson, DET
What in the world happened to Calvin Johnson? Johnson was only targeted four times (less than Golden Tate and Eric Ebron), catching two passes for 39 yards. It’s not time to hit the panic button yet, but Week 1 was definitely disconcerting. Johnson remains a must start in season-long fantasy leagues, but I would hesitate to invest in his high price on daily fantasy sites until we see the return of the Megatron fantasy players know and love.

Tight End

Rising

Tyler Eifert, CIN
Tyler Eifert’s game against the Raiders might have been the most impressive game of the week. Nine receptions on 12 targets for 104 yards and two scores has to be putting a big smile on the face of everyone who invested him as the TE9 in preseason drafts. Surely Eifert won’t put up lines like this every week, but he showed he’s going to be a major part of the Bengals offense this season. Eifert can be a trusted weekly starter at the position.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB
It was a special week for young tight ends, with Austin Seferian-Jenkins putting up a big line of his own (5-110-2). There might have been some flukiness to Seferian-Jenkins’ line (his second touchdown was a 41-yard score when the Buccaneers were down by 35), but it’s a good sign moving forward that Jameis Winston was targeting the talented young tight end. Mike Evans coming back could impact those targets, but if the Bucs are going to be losing a lot of games, there should be plenty of targets to go around. He’s not a must-use yet, but Seferian-Jenkins isn’t a bad start if your options are mediocre.

Falling

Greg Olsen, CAR
When I say that Greg Olsen is falling, it’s not a huge tumble. I still see him top 5 at the position, but Week 1 was a reminder that a player being thrust forward as the top target in a weak passing offense doesn’t necessarily counter the fact that it is… a weak passing offense. Cam Newton completed 18-of-31 passes on Sunday, only targeting “new top target” (as a result of Kelvin Benjamin’s injury) Olsen on three occasions. I believe in Olsen for fantasy, but the Panthers offense will lead to more low-scoring weeks for the tight end.

Coby Fleener, IND

In 2014, Coby Fleener was the Colts tight end to own in fantasy. Entering 2015, Fleener and Dwayne Allen were drafted lower than their counterparts with uncertainty about which would be the man this year, and after one week, Allen looks like he’s the guy. The Colts offense had a poor day against the strong Buffalo defense, but that doesn’t change the fact that Fleener was only targeted once in Andrew Luck’s 49 pass attempts. The combination of Dwayne Allen seeing six targets and all the other tight ends around the league making their presence known, Fleener can be firmly planted on your league’s waiver wire.