Was Baker Mayfield’s career-best 2024 season the start
to becoming one of the league’s best signal callers? Or
was 2024 simply one of those seasons that some QBs have (Blake
Bortles anyone?) before turning back into the average quarterback
they had always been? Those are two questions fantasy managers
should ask themselves before investing QB1 draft capital on the
former No.1 overall selection. It is enticing when you consider
Mayfield is currently enjoying the most productive stretch of
his career, as his six 300-plus-yard passing games in 2024 are
one more than he had during the 2021 thru 2023 seasons combined.
But he continues to turn the ball over in bunches. In a three-game
stretch between Weeks 6 - 8 last year, he threw seven interceptions.
The Buccaneers continue to ensure that he has the weapons at
his disposal. In March, they signed WR Chris Godwin to a three-year
extension and followed that up in April with the selection of
WR Emeka Egbuka during the NFL Draft. They will team with WR Mike
Evans to provide Mayfield with one of the best pass-catching trios
in the league. That’s a definite plus for Mayfield.
I’m usually skeptical about the chances of a player with
Mayfield’s track record duplicating a career season, especially
at 29 years old and playing with a first-time offensive coordinator
like Mayfield will in 2025. He’s viewed and being drafted
as a QB1, and while he doesn’t necessarily have to have
another career season to validate that draft status, I’m
not comfortable urging fantasy managers to target him as their
QB1. If he ends up in that role for you, it will be vital that
you have a solid team around him. Draft accordingly.
Bucky Irving started his rookie season in a timeshare with Rachaad
White, but by the end of November, Irving was getting the lion’s
share of the carries. The Bucs won six of their last seven games
and leaned on the versatile youngster during those triumphs. On
the ground, his 1,122 yards were 10th in the league, and through
the air, his 47 receptions were the 11th best for running backs.
Solid numbers for a player selected near the end of fantasy drafts
-- if he was drafted at all.
After a strong close to last season, Irving enters the 2025 fantasy
draft season as the unquestioned leader in the backfield for the
Buccaneers. His 2024 season wrapped with rushing for at least
88 yards in five of his last seven games, only increased his stock
heading into the off-season. Rachaad White will certainly see
his share of playing time, but not to a degree that should negatively
affect Irving. Bucky is a solid option as an RB1 for those who
select a WR first. Draft him with confidence.
Mike Evans continues his Hall of Fame career by producing thousand-yard
season after thousand-yard season. And while he hasn’t surpassed
80 receptions since 2018, his double-digit TDs in four of his
last five seasons (57 total during that stretch) have made him
a foundational piece for any fantasy team. Such consistency makes
him an alluring option, but one of these years his production
will fall off the table. Will it be this season?
Evans will share targets with Chris Godwin and newcomer Emeka
Ebugka, in addition to RB Bucky Irving. It helps that the Bucs
had the 10th-most pass attempts last season, so there should be
enough to go around.
At this stage of a great player’s career, we should start
looking for any signs of decline. In Evans’ case, perhaps
we can point to his 13.6 yards per reception in 2024 being the
lowest of his career. Or that he played in the fewest games (14)
since 2019. To be sure, those are hair-splitting analyses in an
attempt to find fault with Evans. But the fact remains -- Evans
is a top-level fantasy receiver and he puts your team in a nice
position if you can secure him as your WR2.
Chris Godwin was off to the best start of his career last year
before his ankle injury ended his season after seven games. But
in his abbreviated season, he still finished with 50 receptions
for 576 yards and five scores, including his 11/125/2 masterpiece
in New Orleans. I have long been a fan of Godwin, whose role as
Evans’ complement serves as an open door to productivity
in the fantasy world. He hasn’t been much of a TD scorer
during the second half of his career, thanks in no small part
to Evans’ dominance in that area. But he’s a monster
in PPR formats, having secured 98, 104, and 83 receptions thru
the 2021-2023 seasons.
The three-year contract extension Godwin signed in the offseason
signals the team is not concerned about the gruesome ankle injury
limiting him moving forward. But the big question for Godwin heading
into 2025 is how much will rookie Emeka Ebugka eat into his productivity?
Godwin should continue seeing action in the slot, a position
he played 44 percent of the time in 2024. His lack of scoring
TDs limits his ceiling, which places him in the low-end WR2/high-end
WR3 realm. But make no mistake: Godwin should once again be a
solid contributor to any fantasy team he’s on. Draft him
with the understanding that, while he won’t reach double-digit
scores, he will provide consistent productivity week after week.
Emeka Egbuka’s situation in Tampa Bay reminds me of the
circumstances that greeted fellow Ohio State alum Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s
arrival in Seattle: both ended up on teams with two solid vets
playing ahead of them. In JSN’s case, it was DK Metcalf
and Tyler Lockett blocking his upside. Despite Metcalf and Lockett’s
presence, JSN still carved out a 63/628/4 stat line. Not eyepopping,
but enough to signal his potential. The same should be expected
for Egbuka. The biggest concern is Egbuka played 75 percent of
his snaps in the slot at Ohio State last season -- the same position
as Godwin. How will those snaps be divvied up in 2025?
In the short-term, expect Egbuka’s production to be limited
because of Evans and Godwin’s presence and continued dominance.
But in the long-term, he should become a productive fantasy stud
that sees him ascend to a low-end WR2 before long, similar to
JSN’s trajectory. What does that mean for 2025? It means
taking a flyer on Egbuka late in your draft with the hope that
he gets enough playing time to put up numbers, or keep him on
ice in case one of the vets ahead of him misses time due to injury.
Cade Otton had a stretch last season from Weeks 7 thru 9 when
he had 25 receptions for 258 yards and 3 TDs. The rest of the
season, however, saw Otton fall short of those numbers. On the
plus side he does see the field a lot, playing 75% of the snaps
in 2024.
He enters the 2025 draft season as essentially an afterthought
or a low-end TE2. As outlined above, there are many mouths to
feed in Tampa, and Otton will be the odd man out on many occasions
if everyone is healthy. Otton is best left undrafted until an
injury occurs with the other Bucs pass catchers or he shows signs
of being a consistent part of the Bucs’ passing game.
