What
a difference a week makes. In Week 7, we had to make lineups without
any options from Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Kansas City and Cincinnati.
This week, they were all in play on the main slate and Fanduel finally
gave us a decision to make on Todd Gurley who saw a significant
price bump.
Here’s a look at my cash game Lineup for Fanduel in Week
8.
Quarterback
There were a number of good quarterback options all within $800
of each other. At the top end, Aaron Rodgers ($8600) and Jared
Goff ($8500) were squaring off in a game with a total of 57 points.
I was hesitant to use Goff given he was the most likely of my
QB considerations to come up empty in the TD department, especially
considering Gurley’s usage inside the 10-yard line. Rodgers
was my top quarterback play of the week but given we like to pay
down at the position in order to fit in top tier running backs
and receivers, my eyes shifted to Jameis Winston ($7800) who was
also in a high-total game (54.5) and commanding an offense that
ranks high in air yards and pass attempts per game. Knowing the
Buccaneers would be accommodating in giving up points to the Bengals,
Winston was in an ideal game script spot and easily became my
favorite quarterback based on price. Andy Dalton ($7800) at the
same price was a brief consideration but I had Winston with a
higher projection making him the easy call.
Running Back
After seven weeks, Fanduel gave us a decision to make on Todd
Gurley ($11000). I mentioned last week, that I’d continue
playing Gurley until his price got to $11K… and here we
are. I messed around with some Gurley lineups but never got comfortable
enough at the wide receiver position and with four cheaper backs
sticking out as great plays; it made sense to fade Gurley in cash
games.
James Conner ($8000) and Kareem Hunt ($8100) were in similar
spots, both playing at home, getting the bulk of their team’s
touches at the position and coming with high a TD expectation.
Hunt had already torched the Broncos for 175 yards and a TD back
in Week 4 and Denver had allowed 200-yard rushing days to Isaiah
Crowell and Gurley. Conner was coming off back-to-back weeks with
100-plus rushing yards with 2 touchowns and facing a Browns defense
that ranks top five in fantasy points given to the position. While
I also considered Joe Mixon ($7800) who had similar projections
and an attractive matchup, these two were locks and their $3000
price difference made fading Gurley an easy call.
Wide Receiver
Wide receiver was a bit tricky this week and easily the position
where I spent the most time comparing price to projections. The
Buccaneers pass defense has been atrocious making A.J. Green ($8800)
and Tyler Boyd ($6800) attractive targets. With Boyd’s price
sticking out like a sore thumb and the Bucs getting abused by
slot receivers, he became my one lock at the position. That left
me with $14000 to spend at the other two wide receiver slots meaning
I could go with a star and scrub approach or something a little
more balanced. My best balanced option included Robert Woods ($7600)
and Chris Godwin ($6400) but I wasn’t comfortable with Godwin’s
low usage and really wanted to jam in Davante Adams who was my
No.3 ranked wide receiver of the week. I also liked Antonio Brown
($8800), but didn’t feel comfortable enough with the punt
options bellows $5400 to fit him or Green on this roster. I was
slightly concerned that Adams may not see as many targets given
the Packers were getting Geronimo Allison ($5700) and Randall
Cobb ($6100) back from injury but felt the game environment and
Adams high TD probability outweighed his usage concerns.
I was intrigued by Byron Leftwich taking over as offensive coordinator
in Arizona and had hopes the offense as a whole might show some
signs of life, especially against a 49ers secondary that’s
been below average for the first half of the season. That being
said, Christian Kirk ($5400) was still an uncomfortable punt play
- a salary saver needed to facilitate my roster. Given his target
totals and production over the last three weeks, he felt safer
than Martavis Bryant ($5300) was also under consideration and
was expected to see a bump in opportunities with Amari Cooper
shipped off to Dallas. I also liked Courtland Sutton ($5300) but
didn’t trust the Broncos offense enough to have two of them
on my roster.
Tight End
Last week I wrote… “David Njoku ($5700) was an early-week
lock in my roster and he never moved.” Ditto for this week.
With Njoku’s price unchanged and facing a Steelers defense
that’s been friendly to the position, you might think the
Browns would actually gameplan some options for their freakishly
athletic tight end. Instead, he got zero targets. Was this Hue
Jackson’s contribution to the offense this week? Anyway,
Travis Kelce ($7300) was an obvious play at the high end, but
he wasn’t going to fit my roster construction. I liked O.J.
Howard ($5800), Vance McDonald ($5300) and C.J. Uzomah ($5400)
in roughly the same price range as Njoku and could’ve used
the $400 savings to upgrade my Defense but didn’t feel comfortable
dropping down to McDonald given he’s still sharing time
with Jesse James and my projection for Njoku was higher.
Flex
If you’ve read these roster breakdowns the last few weeks,
you know that I’ve been jamming in three running backs in
cash games. Nothing changed in Week 8 as we had some great options
at the position. Phillip Lindsay ($6500) was set for a role increase
with Royce Freeman on the sideline with a knee injury. We knew
Devontae Booker ($4900) would still be involved, especially on
third downs but Lindsay is the better talent and I expected him
to give the Chiefs fits… and he did. Lindsay out-touched
Booker 21 to 13 and had two 20-yard plays called back on penalties.
We also got word Sunday morning from the Broncos beat writers
that Lindsay would be removed from special team duties given his
expected role increase on offense. I had Lindsay locked into my
lineup, but that tipped the scales in my Lindsay - Kerryon Johnson
($6900) debate. Johnson saw his role increase last week with Theo
Riddick on the shelf and we expected a similar lead-role workload
from the Lions RB in Week 8. His matchup against the Seahawks
was a little tougher and I preferred the KC-DEN game environment
making Lindsay a comfortable pick for the Flex spot.
Defense
I held my nose and clicked the Browns defense ($3100) as they
were the only punt play I was comfortable with. Gregg Williams’
defense is aggressive which can lead to turnovers and sacks and
while I didn’t really like this matchup, Big-Ben has a history
of throwing picks and doesn’t mind holding onto the ball
longer than he should, resulting in sacks. If I had the cash,
I would’ve jumped up to the Cardinals defense ($3400) with
the Steelers ($3800) and Bengals ($3700) also on my radar.
Results
While Gurley popped for his typical 30.5 fantasy points, it was
the right call to fade him in cash games given the strong performances
from Conner, Mixon and Lindsay. Only Hunt was a worse play on
a point per dollar basis. Most owners were on the same page as
Gurley was only 10-12 percent owned in the cash games I participated
in, down from his 90 percent ownership level last week.
I got the expected performances out my running backs and Boyd
turned in an above average score, doing most of his damage in
the first half. My concerns about Adams’ usage came true
as the Packers used seemingly every wide receiver they had available
leading Adams to run only 25 routes, a season low. This is a situation
we need to monitor going forward as Adams probably outperformed
his expectation given he only saw 7 targets. The tilt was real
when Winston got benched towards the end of the third quarter
but I also ran good with a late touchdown from Kirk who was sitting
on 1 catch for 14 yards well into the fourth quarter. I was a
couple points above the cash line before the Kirk TD so it’s
likely I would’ve been profitable without the score, but
as it turned out, it was a comfortable finish in the green.