Quarterbacks Most Likely to Rise in 2024:

Anthony Richardson IND: There are definitely safer Riser candidates out there (C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert, and even Matthew Stafford), but I’m a sucker for generational athletic gifts and small sample sizes bespeaking big returns on investment. Richardson only started four games his rookie season -- after starting just 12 down in Gainesville -- which means he hasn’t even started an NFL season’s worth of games since graduating from high school. But oh, those four games….

Richardson didn’t even finish two of them, actually, getting concussed in Week 2 (and spending Week 3 in the protocol) and then suffering a nasty AC joint sprain in Week 5, which cost him the rest of his first season. However, he averaged a whopping 27.4 FPts/G in the two games he played from start to finish. This despite an 11-for-25 outing (200 yards) in Week 4. Just so you’re tracking, 27.4 FPts/G was only 0.5 points per game fewer than QB1 Josh Allen averaged. Granted, Allen played 13 more games, but…who isn’t tantalized by that kinda production and at such a young age?

In fact, Allen is the most obvious comparable to the 6’4” 244-lb Indy prodigy. Richardson’s an inch shorter but about ten pounds heavier and a lot faster than his Buffalo counterpart. He’s got the size and speed, in other words, to hold up better than most when escaping the pocket. The fact he didn’t last year, though concerning, isn’t cause for alarm yet. If I had to guess, Shane Steichen et al. worked with their young star to be more controlled and purposeful when running rather than seeking to deliver blows. The stakes got too high for me this past weekend (my one and only auction draft), but I’d encourage others to pony up for Richardson in all formats.

Caleb Williams, CHI: In truth, the stakes got too high because I’d already spent $22 (of my $200 budget for 16-man rosters) on Washington’s nearly as tantalizing Jayden Daniels earlier in the draft. Adding another $37 asset (!!!) to the QB room would have left me dangerously thin at other spots, a position I didn’t really want to be in. I don’t think I’ll regret rolling with the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner, but if I’d have sat tight, I could have grabbed the guy drafted one spot in front of him for just a buck more.

Only time will tell whether Williams or Daniels ends up the better pro, but for this season, at least, Williams at $23 v. Daniels at $22 seems like the better value. They both drip with athleticism and arm talent. They both spent several years honing their craft in the NCAA (as opposed to the guy we just talked about). They both were so obviously the best players on the field when they suited up last year, regardless of outcome. What sets Williams apart is the talent he’ll be surrounded with in Chicago. How many No.1 overall picks get to throw footballs to guys like D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze? Bryce Young has to be green with envy down there in Charlotte. Daniels might be too because, outside of Terry McLaurin (last year’s WR33), the Commanders don’t have an obvious NFL starter at the position.

It can be dangerous trusting rookies with your fantasy hopes. Anyone who drafted Anthony Richardson last year already knows this…present company included. This was an epic class of rookie QBs, however, and at least one if not several of them will hit. I think Williams has the best chance to do that and join the Top 10 club straightaway.

Kyler Murray, ARI: Look no further than this former Heisman winner as proof it can be done. Murray won the award in 2018 and then, after forsaking a professional baseball career, posted 344.5 fantasy points as a rookie for the Cardinals, good for seventh overall at the position. He was even better the year after (450.5), when he finished as QB2, and still excellent the year after that (357.7) before dipping below 200 points for two consecutive seasons. Injuries were to blame, as they usually are.

One of those injuries, a late 2022 ACL tear, cost him 13 games over two seasons (the last four of that season and nine more last year), making it nearly impossible for him to retain Top 10 status the past two years. I’m not saying he would have anyway, but Murray’s FPts/G rate has never dipped below 21.3, which will always be within shouting distance of the QB penthouse. He scored 21.5 FPts/G last year, in fact, which ranked 11th overall if we scrub Joe Flacco’s insane five-game stretch and Carson Wentz’s Week 18 garbage time special from the list.

That per-game rate actually surprised me when I stopped to consider whom Murray was throwing the football to last season. Marquise Brown, Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Rondale Moore, and Zach Pascal might not have been the worst WR room, but they were in the conversation. No wonder Arizona brass made Marvin Harrison Jr. the first non-QB selected in April’s draft. Harrison may be the most NFL-ready WR in several generations (ever?) and will add instant legitimacy to a unit which scared almost nobody in 2023. Add him to the late-surging Trey McBride, Murray’s favorite target down the stretch last season, and who knows where this could go?