Despite investing a boatload of draft capital and cash into Wilson,
the Broncos unceremoniously tossed the former Seahawk star aside
this offseason. Though his numbers were strong in 2023 with 29
total touchdowns, only eight picks, and a top-10 passer rating,
he never seemed to be capable of running Sean Payton’s offense
the way he wanted, taking the 4th most sacks in the NFL (45),
and constantly drawing the ire of his coach. Pittsburgh was more
than happy to snap Wilson up for the league minimum as they have
decided to completely remake their quarterback room. Wilson will
have every opportunity to take and hold this job as he’s
certainly an upgrade over whatever the Steelers threw out at quarterback
last season. Unfortunately, a Justin Fields shaped shadow looms,
and the Steelers staff won’t hesitate to make a move if
Wilson falters. With conservative for Falcon head man Authur Smith
in the fold as the new O.C., and a very raw receiver room, there
doesn’t seem to be much fantasy upside with Wilson. At this
stage of his career the Steelers hope he can at least protect
the ball and stabilize the position, as the days of willing his
team to win are long gone. The specter of Fields and the upside
depth at this fantasy position is too much to consider Wilson
as anything more than a low end QB2.
Despite the fantasy universe, and many Steeler fans begging for
the ascension of Jaylen Warren, the Steelers continued to rely
on Harris as the workhorse. His RB2 finish was solid with eight
scores, and a career best yards-per-carry average (4.1), It wasn’t
all good news, as Harris saw a career low 284 touches, including
a miserly 29 receptions. The precipitous drop in receptions from
his rookie year of 74 is by far the biggest obstacle to his fantasy
value, even more so than the presence of Warren. Harris fits the
mold of this team by being reliable, even if Warren does provide
more pop and sizzle. Despite declining his 5th year option, the
Steelers trust Harris, and their steadfast dedication to him as
the workhorse won’t be changing significantly. Guaranteed volume
on a conservative run-first offense, and reliability (he’s never
missed a game) means a lot for a fantasy back, and he should remain
as an ideal RB2 even if his PPR value is not nearly what it once
was.
Warren took a major leap in year two, teaming with Najee Harris
to give the Steelers two top-30 fantasy backs that only the Lions
and Dolphins were able to match. Though Pitt never wavered from
keeping Harris as the workhorse, Warren did become the preferred
passing down back, as his 74 targets put him 6th in the NFL at
his position. He continued to be ultra efficient with his carries
with a 5.3 per-carry average. That mark made him 2nd among backs
behind only Christian McCaffrey. Warren’s athletic profile, and
advanced metrics make him one of the best values in fantasy football,
and if Najee Harris were to miss time, Warren would be an upside
RB2 even with the addition of Cordarrelle
Patterson. Either way, with improvements along the line, a
run-first scheme, and check-down champ at quarterback, Warren
not only possesses strong standalone value, but also season altering
upside.
A few big games during a six-game stretch to start the season
put Pickens on the fantasy map during his 2nd year. He dominated
down the field with big plays, racking up three 100-yard games
during that run, displaying dazzling physical traits. Unfortunately,
that hot start was followed by a vile stretch of football, as
the Steelers rotated quarterbacks. Pickens showed a lack of maturity
as he struggled to handle the adversity, getting called out for
not giving maximum effort at times. Between Weeks 8 and 15 he
only reached 80 yards once, and the endzone might as well have
been camouflaged, as Pickens didn’t see it again until Week
16. Explosions in Week 16 and 17 were followed with duds in the
season's final two contests.
Starting Pickens was a wild ride in 2023, but things should be
much less volatile this season. Wilson should bring some stability
to the offense, and he’s always had a penchant for throwing
the deep ball, something Pickens specializes in, as his 10.8 yards-per-target
was 3rd best among receivers with at least 50 receptions. Despite
the trade rumors for Brandon Aiyuk, Pickens remains the clear
alpha in this offense with the trade of Diontae Johnson. A good
chunk of those 87 lost targets should go to Pickens as he works
to become a more proficient route runner. As he enters his 3rd
year, Pickens has the talent and opportunity to be a WR1 if he
can keep his head straight.
With only 2nd year slot man Calvin Austin, and rookie 3rd rounder
Roman Wilson behind Pickens, there was a reason the Steelers were
rumored to be in the mix for another receiver this offseason.
Austin is a 170-pound dynamo who is a blur on the field, but can’t
be counted on for a consistent role. While Wilson’s production
at Michigan doesn’t jump off the page, his athleticism,
hands, and competitiveness make up for it. His speed made him
a threat at all levels of the field, and he displayed the ability
to turn short catches into big plays. If Pittsburgh doesn’t
add a veteran in camp, there is a path to targets in this offense.
He has experience producing in conservative schemes, and I wouldn’t
be shocked if he became a priority waiver add at some point later
this season if Cordarrelle Patterson doesn’t throw a wrench
into the works.
After a strong rookie season and decent year 2, Freiermuth fizzled
last year. A hamstring injury in Week 4 cost him five games, and
outside of two early touchdowns and a 9-120 aberration in Week
12, he wasn’t even worth rostering for most of the season.
A revamped quarterback room, and 100+ lost targets to replace
should certainly work in his favor as he opens the year as Pittsburgh’s
de facto #2 receiver. Still only 25, Freiermuth has the chance
to continue to grow as a receiver, and has past production in
his favor. Arthur Smith features tight ends, as evidenced by Kyle
Pitts and Jonnu Smith both finishing in the top 17 last season.
The personnel in this offense is frighteningly similar to what
Atlanta had recently, so don’t be surprised if Freiermuth
becomes a sneaky low end TE1 option again.
