It’s typical for most franchises to struggle to transition
away from HOF quarterbacks, as the Steelers, Saints, Broncos,
and Patriots can all attest to. The Cheeseheads up north simply
shrug and find a new one, as Jordan Love’s debut season
could indeed set them up until 2040.
After languishing on the bench behind the mercurial Aaron Rodgers,
Love finally got his shot last season. After a quick start, Love
and the team cooled considerably, and an early season four-game
losing streak seemed to have the doubters saying “I told
you so”. In the season's first nine games Love had a shaky
14-10 touchdown to interception ratio as Green Bay labored to
score points. But an immensely young offensive core seemed to
gel, and the return of a running game seemed to give balance to
a languishing offense. From Week 11 on, Love surged, piling up
a staggering 18 touchdowns with only a single interception. The
team subsequently caught fire as well, going 6-2, locking up the
wild card, and coming within a wisp of making it all the way to
the Super Bowl. Love was masterful down the stretch, looking totally
in control of the offense, and making off schedule plays with
his arm and legs.
With a monster contract extension on the horizon, deep receiver
room, and an offensive head coach that is a genius as scheming
guys open, Love truly sits in the catbird seat. While his 2023
touchdown numbers (36 total) will be very hard to duplicate, Love
should remain a safe floor value pick as your QB1 and has upside
for more if Christan Watson can bring a consistent vertical element
back to the offense.
Coming off a career high 393 touches during an MVP worthy 2022
season, Jacobs struggled mightily last season. His yards-per-carry
average dropped precipitously (4.9 in 2022 to 3.5 in 2023) and
he missed four games due to injury. He’s got a ton of wear
on his tires (nearly 1,500 total touches in five seasons), and
the contract he signed with Green Bay reflects the concerns about
his long-term durability. The four-year $48 million dollar deal
is essentially a one-year $14.8-million-dollar pact, as the remaining
three years are not guaranteed. The hope is that last season's
breakdown is not a sign of things to come, but the Pack have hedged
their bet.
I do think this a strong schematic fit, as the zone blocking
scheme, and multiple threats in the passing game should give Jacobs
much more room to operate than he had in Vegas. While not the
home-run hitter Aaron Jones was, Jacobs has receiving chops (two
50+ catch seasons) and should be a solid upgrade at the goal line.
Green Bay is going to remain a pass first offense, but expect
Jacobs to reach 1,000 yards on the ground, and he should be able
to push for double-digit touchdowns in such an efficient offense.
With only AJ Dillon and rookie 3rd rounder MarShawn Lloyd behind
him, Jacobs will be the uncontested starter, and with health,
could finish as a low-end RB1 that you can probably get for a
RB2 price.
After testing the free agent waters and getting hardly a sniff,
Dillon surprisingly returned to the Packers on a cheap one-year
deal. Unfortunately for Green Bay and fantasy owners, Dillon has
been a huge disappointment since coming over as a 2nd round pick.
Despite having multiple opportunities due to Aaron Jones injuries,
Dillon has consistently proven to be nothing more than a mediocre
role player. He plodded his way to a career low 3.4 yards-per-carry
average last season, and his legendary leg size has been better
for social media clicks, than short yardage conversions. He’s
a cheap, veteran insurance policy whose main value is being familiar
with the offense and isn’t worth the roster spot in fantasy.
Lloyd, the 3rd rounder out of USC (he played for both Southern
Cal and South Carolina) brings the dynamic element to the running
game that was lost when Aaron Jones departed. He was electric
in college, and flashed at the combine with a 4.4 in the 40-yard
dash. The biggest obstacle to playing time is a lack of experience
in the passing game. Matt LeFleur’s concepts are notoriously
complex, and Lloyd wasn’t asked to participate much as a
blocker or receiver in college. He only had 34 receptions in his
three-year collegiate career, and tack that on to a penchant for
fumbling, and you have the makings of a tricky situation. Lloyd
brings a unique speed element to this backfield, but there are
lots of roadblocks to playing time. In deep leagues he might be
worth a bench stash if he looks good in the preseason and can
leap Dillon in camp.
The rookie 2nd rounder from Michigan State burst onto the scene
in 2023 with a final line of 54-793-8, eventually working as the
defacto No.1 receiver in the offense. Like most of the other skill
position players, Reed caught fire in the 2nd half of the season
and built a strong connection with Love.
Year two brings an obvious progression of comfort in the offense,
and the Green Bay passing game will be a nightmare for defenses
to defend against because of its versatility. Unfortunately, it
will also be a nightmare for fantasy owners. Just like committee
backfields have become the bane of the running back position,
the Packers don’t have a certified alpha receiver. After
trading away Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers, LaFleur has been
able to truly deploy his system. Predicated on always throwing
to the open man, rather than peppering an elite talent with targets,
Reed is just one of several receivers capable of leading a week
in targets. All of the Packer receivers were fairly touchdown
dependent, which is always an unreliable metric. It’s going
to be tough to trust any of these Green Bay receivers as more
than WR3s on a weekly basis, but Reed should line up as being
the most consistent.
Like his teammate Reed, Doubs also busted out in a big way setting
career highs with a 59-674-8 line. Despite putting the ball in
the air 579 times (tied for 5th in the NFL), the Packers were
the only team with that many attempts to have only one receiver
in the top 35 in receptions. This is exactly how the scheme is
designed, and like the rest of the receivers, Doubs’ value
will be tied up in the number of times he finds the endzone. After
a nine-target game in Week 8, Doubs failed to see more than seven
looks in a game the rest of the way and was basically a touchdown
or bust option for the 2nd half of the year. All these ingredients
are great for real life football, but an absolute misery for fantasy.
Best viewed as a low end WR3/bench fill-in, Doubs will be hard
pressed to repeat his 2023 numbers especially if Watson returns
and remains healthy.
It was largely a lost season right from the jump, as Watson
missed eight games due to lingering hamstring injuries. The most
physically gifted of all the Packer receivers, Watson still made
the most of his healthy snaps, popping off in Weeks 12 and 13,
and finding the endzone five times on only 28 receptions. His
elite speed, and size in the redzone give him the biggest upside
of any Green Bay receiver, but his health and role in a crowded
receiver room make him a fantasy conundrum. Due to some serious
sports science analysis, it seems Watson has found the causes
of his lower body woes. If that’s the case he’ll provide
a lethal big play element for the Pack, and could be an amazing
fantasy value. If health and route development come together,
he has the physical tools to be elite, but until that translates,
he’ll still be a boom/bust option.
It’s likely that this pair of 2023 rookies spent very little,
if any time on fantasy rosters last season. The young duo did
combine for a 65-703-3 line through the season, but like all of
the receivers on this team, that scheme makes them all moving
parts. Musgrave, coming off an injury shortened season due to
a lacerated kidney, has also missed some off-season work with
a pec injury. For all practical and metric reasons, he was a solid
player in his rookie year, but there are simply way too many mouths
to feed in this passing game.
