QB Andy Dalton
(2020 QB Rank - No.30, 16.0 FPts/G)
Andy Dalton is a genuinely fantastic human being, and decent
football player, but if he isn’t the prime example of the NFL
being the “Not For Long” league, I don’t know what is. I do believe
that when Chicago inked him to a one-year deal this offseason
they fully intended on him being their starting quarterback in
2021, but only a month later the Bears lucked into Justin Fields.
After a strong start to his career, dragging some mediocre Bengal
teams to the playoffs, Dalton peaked and it became clear he lacked
franchise defining ability. Signed in Dallas to be a high level
insurance policy, he struggled to find a rhythm behind a bad offensive
line, and faced too much pressure to overcome a bad defense. Now
in Chicago, Dalton assumes the role of Alex Smith, circa 2017,
when Smith kept the seat warm for young Patrick Mahomes. Chicago
insists that the plan is for Dalton to be the starter for as long
as possible while Fields learns the ropes. Please don’t believe
this. The situation in Kansas City in 2017 is nothing like Chicago
in 2021, and I’d be SHOCKED if Dalton is the starter for long.
Justin Fields fits the mold of today’s top scoring fantasy quarterbacks;
big arm, athletic, makes plays with his legs. The question is,
when will he get his chance? Short of Dalton playing out of his
mind the first couple of weeks, I anticipate Fields being the
Bears starter for a bulk of the 17-game season, and we’ve learned
in recent seasons NOT to overlook the fantasy impact rookie quarterbacks
can have. But I’m very concerned about the offensive talent around
him. Sure, Allen Robinson is an All-Pro caliber player, but he’s
the only proven receiver on the roster and likely will be playing
his final season with the Bears. Fellow receiver Darnell Mooney
and tight end Cole Kmet have upside, but are both entering only
their 2nd seasons in the NFL.
Keep a close eye on how things shake out in camp, as “lights out”
performances by Fields in the preseason could put tremendous pressure
on the Bears to start Fields sooner than later. If he wins the
job out of camp I wouldn’t hate stashing him on my bench as an
end of the draft QB2, but if Dalton wins the job, Fields sits
it out on the waiver wire until he gets his chance.
Montgomery’s top-10 finish in 2021 is the definition of fool’s
gold. Through the first 8 games of the seasons he performed as
expected. Two total touchdowns, no games even sniffing 100 yards
rushing, and yards-per-carry average hovering around 3. Tarik
Cohen going down in Week 3 with a torn ACL gave Montgomery a stranglehold
on backfield snaps, but it wasn’t until after the Week 11 bye
that the whole world got tipped on its side. The schedule loosened
up in a HUGE way, as Montgomery took advantage of matchups against
Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, and Jacksonville to become one of
the hottest players in fantasy football down the stretch. He found
the endzone eight times over the final six regular season games,
helping the Bears squeak into the playoffs. So while the end to
the 2020 season was a dream for his fantasy owners, trying to
chase those stats in 2021 is going to end up as a nightmare.
The return of Cohen and addition of Damien Williams means it’s
back to the bench for Montgomery in obvious passing situations.
I expect a huge regression on those 54 receptions from a year
ago and expecting him to finish in the top-5 in rushing attempts
is also a pipe dream. In order to repeat as a RB1, Montgomery
is going to have to do more with less behind a bottom tier offensive
line, and a shaky quarterback situation. I can’t see that happening,
so I’m comfortable drafting him as a low end RB2 in most formats.
Williams, coming off a missed season due to Covid opt-out, joined
the Bears as a free agent this offseason. Although their paths
didn’t cross when he was in KC, Williams does have familiarity
with this Matt Nagy offense, and fits in extremely well as a backup
to Montgomery as a runner and a passing game hedge bet to the
health of Tarik Cohen. Williams was an important piece of the
offense that carried the Chiefs to their Superbowl win in 2019,
scoring six touchdowns in the playoffs. He has low tread on his
tires for a 29 year-old back, and should provide the Bears with
a versatile piece to plug into their backfield. That’s fine
and dandy for Chicago, but will it be enough for fantasy value?
Yes, Williams is worth an add in all formats, especially as a
handcuff to Montgomery. With Cohen likely to come along slowly,
Williams could be the team’s passing back of choice, and
his versatility gives the offense more mystery, and unpredictability.
At times he’s been able to carry the run game, so were Montgomery
to go down, Williams could step into a RB2 level touch count.
Don’t sleep on the former Chief as an extremely cheap fantasy
bench stash who could return major value.
Let’s be frank, outside of PPR leagues Tarik Cohen should
be well off your radar, and honestly coming off a torn ACL, and
starting camp on the PUP, I’m not exactly sky high on him
in those leagues either. After a dynamic rookie season in 2018,
Cohen was largely mediocre in 2019, and the three pre-injury games
of 2020. The highlight reel, field flipping plays of his rookie
year are now a season, and major injury in the past. On the eve
of camp it seems Cohen is still rehabbing his way back into form,
and for a 5’6’’ player who relies solely on
quick twitch speed, this has me greatly concerned for his early
season impact. Damien Williams is most certainly going to handle
a bulk of the non-Montgomery backfield touches and I’m just
not sure where that leaves Cohen’s fantasy value.
Despite some of the worst quarterback play in the league for
the past several seasons, Allen Robinson has been able to transcend
quarterback mediocrity and be a top fantasy receiver on sheer
volume alone. Despite the disaster of the Foles/Trubisky duet
last season, Robinson still turned in a WR1 performance on the
back of the 3rd most targets in the league (151). As the clear
cut ALPHA in the Chicago passing game, Robinson is again assured
a giant volume in 2021, as the only other threat to his target
throne is 2nd year receiver Darnell Mooney. With 98 and 102 reception
seasons the last two years, Robinson has entrenched himself as
a top option in all formats, and should benefit from the giant
upgrades Andy Dalton (this says alot about the state of QB play
in Chicago) and eventually Justin Fields.
With the way he’s been able to produce to this point, I
don’t see a significant difference in Robinson’s production
if it’s the vet Dalton, or the rookie Fields. Entering his
final year with Chicago before free agency can be both a boon
(works harder to maximize his numbers/value) or pitfall (sits
out minor injuries to preserve his health), so I’m not really
going to bother factoring that into his value equation. What I
will be comfortable with is waiting a bit while the run of top
receivers fly off the board and taking a guy who I know is extremely
likely to catch 100 passes and score 8+ touchdowns.
Already one of most popular sleeper picks at receiver going into
2021, the bear market for Mooney’s stock is sky high after
Anthony Miller was dealt to Houston over the weekend. Mooney,
the 5th round rookie from Tulane acclimated himself quite well
to the NFL last season with a 61-631-4 final line. By season’s
end he was the clear WR2 on this offense, and developed enough
for the Bears to finally jettison Miller. Mooney plays bigger
than his 5’10’’ frame, and showed a savvy route
running ability for a young player. He’ll easily find room
to roam the secondary in the shadow of Robinson, and should see
enough volume to improve on his rookie numbers. For the 25th receiver
selected in the draft, with a shaky quarterback situation, Mooney
was very consistent as a rookie. I’m very interested in
Mooney as an upside WR3 player you will likely be able to grab
late in your drafts.
Let’s get this out of the way; this is a position group
to avoid. I get that the universe granted Jimmy Graham one more
relevant season on the back of eight touchdowns and a top-10 finish
last season, but it's high time that Kmet steps up and becomes
the threat the Bears drafted in the 2nd round last year. While
I don’t expect the 12-year vet to totally disappear, if
I had to take a shot at one of these guys, Kmet would be it. At
a rocked up 6’6’’ 260, Kmet spent most of his
rookie season learning the position as the in-line tight end,
while Graham soaked up the receptions. After only getting 11 targets
over the first half of the season, Kmet and the Chicago offense
made a turnaround, and the rookie saw 31 looks down the stretch.
Anthony Miller’s departure leaves 76 targets up for grabs,
and I think Kmet can snag a few of those. While the volume is
unlikely to be enough to elevate Kmet into starting, or even TE2
territory, he’s certainly someone to keep a waiver eye on.
