Running Backs

Start 'Em:
Running Backs Who Will Outperform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Bernard Scott @ OAK
With so many RBs getting banged up last week, you may find yourself reaching as you head into the playoffs. Scott is the first place I’d go this week. Chances are that Benson will sit, and Scott should pick up most of his carries, which have totaled a ludicrous 71 touches over the last two games. Scott won’t hit the 30-carry mark, but he should get plenty of chances against an Oakland team ranked 29th against the run, and who just gave up 103 yards and a TD to the similarly-built Jamaal Charles. Don’t let the signing of Larry Johnson deter you; he likely won’t play this week. The only thing standing in Scott’s way is Benson’s questionable tag.

Kevin Smith vs. CLE
Smith has been much-maligned for most of the season as he has come far from putting up his expected stats. His yards-per-carry have been inconsistent (between 1.3 and 6.3), his TDs have been sparse (only 3 on the year), and he’s been plagued by a nagging shoulder injury for most of the last month. That said, he faces a Cleveland defense that has allowed the second most TDs in the NFL this year. Against the Vikings last week Smith had a commendable 4.6 average while Maurice Morris managed only 1.7. While Smith remains a disappointment so far this year, it should be easy for him to carry the workload this week, exploiting a matchup against a team that is giving up 166 yards per game on the ground.

Give Pierre another chance.

Pierre Thomas @ TB
I was wrong on Thomas last week, but it’s so hard not to play this guy, especially in a matchup like St. Louis or Tampa Bay. If you’ve seen Thomas play, you’ve likely seen the intangibles he possesses. More than anything, he’s great at quickly finding the hole and exploiting it for big chunks of yardage, thus the reason he doesn’t need many carries to help your fantasy team. Bush took most of the carries last week and took full advantage of them, but that’s an anomaly. Hopefully, for Thomas owners and Saints fans alike, New Orleans realizes that when Thomas is given at least 14 carries he excels (between 4.5 and 9.0 ypc, with 4 TDs) and when given less he—and the team—tends to struggle (between 3.4 and 3.8 ypc, with just 1 TD).

Beanie Wells @ STL
While Hightower excels in the passing game (35 catches for 328 yds), the ground game is clearly not his forte (breaking 3 ypc only four times this season). He should be a third-down back at most. Though the coaching staff has indicated their intent to maintain the status quo, it’s hard to believe that Wells won’t soon overtake Hightower completely as the early-down back. Even with the current carry split (16 to Wells, 10 to Hightower last week), Wells should be able to put up a solid game against the 28th-ranked Rams.

Bench 'Em:
Running Backs Who Will Under Perform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Justin Forsett @ MIN
Forsett gives the Seahawks something they haven’t had for a couple years now, and he proved his worth against a stout Arizona defense last week (7.2 ypc and a TD). But this week is going to be tough on Forsett and his advocates. Not only does Minnesota have an interior line that even their own running back would have trouble pushing through (they’ve allowed only 2 TDs on the year), they have linebackers that can limit Forsett’s outside options. If Seattle’s game plan is at all reasonable, they’ll try to take advantage of the Vikings secondary and leave the ground game as an afterthought. Forsett could salvage some of his value this week in PPR leagues, since he’s had 5 receptions in each of the last two games. But in standard leagues, keep your distance from him this week.

Knowshon Moreno vs. SD
Moreno looked to be the main man on Sunday, taking 90% of the carries while gaining 104 yards on 20 touches and leaving Correll Buckhalter in the dust. But Orton’s injury could have a major impact on Moreno’s productivity. Chris Simms took over for Orton at halftime and connected on only 3-of-13 passes, with a pick and no scores. While Moreno did well in the second half (44 yds; 1 rec, 7 yds) despite Simms’ failures, San Diego will likely stack eight in the box against the Broncos this week. Even while taking on San Diego’s porous rush defense along with some additional carries to limit Simms’ responsibility, Moreno probably won’t be able to make much of the opportunity this week if Orton doesn’t suit up.

Ryan Moats vs TEN
Tennessee has improved drastically over the last couple of weeks, with both their offensive and defensive running games improving the most. Moats has done the opposite and regressed since his big start against Buffalo (23 carries, 126 yds and 3 TDs). Last week, against a Colts team ranks just above the Titans, he carried for a paltry 2.4 ypc and lost a fumble. That brought Slaton back into the fold, giving him ten carries to the one he had before the Moats fumble. Considering the way Moats played against the Colts, he should probably stay on your bench this week. And since no one is sure how the ball will be divvied up in Houston, Slaton is probably not too safe a bet either.

Jamaal Charles vs. PIT
I liked his chances last week, but the question of how many carries he would get got in the way of calling him a “Start”. This week I don’t like him at all against the Steelers’ #1 run defense. While Charles may collect a nice number of targets in the passing game, don’t look for him to put out a decent rushing effort. With Bowe suspended and Cassel’s struggles last week (216 yds, 1 pick, 1 fumble), the Steelers should maintain a stranglehold on the Chiefs running game for the full 60 minutes.

Wide Receivers